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Blu-ray looks to replace DVDs within three years

post #1 of 88
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The Blu-ray disc association said Thursday that it's aiming to replace the traditional DVD storage format within the next three years.

"Within three years it will just be Blu-ray," said Frank Simonis, the Blu-ray Disc Association's European chairman, speaking at the CeBIT technology trade show.

Blu-ray, which offers five times more storage capacity than DVDs for storing high definition films and other content, will first have to reign supreme over the rival HD-DVD format, which is similarly fighting to emerge as the successor to DVD.

According to Reuters, Blu-ray has recently established a commanding lead over HD-DVD in the number of available players on the market, thanks largely to sales of Sony's PlayStation 3 video games console which come with a built-in Blu-ray player. The format has also garnered the exclusive support of five out of eight major Hollywood studios while just one studio, Universal, has thrown its weight behind HD-DVD.

Blu-ray backers such as 20th Century Fox also claim that weekly sales of its discs are outpacing HD-DVD titles by more than three times. "If you look at the top 25 selling DVDs last year, 23 were released on Blu-ray," Fox's Steve Feldstein told the New York Post. "Just two were exclusive to HD DVD."

HD-DVD supporters, however, have yet to concede. They are encouraging consumers to not only focus on the big blockbuster title releases from Hollywood, but also those from regional film houses in Europe and Asia which plan to deliver their titles on HD-DVD because it is cheaper and simpler.

Still, some experts are ready to call the bout and recommend that consumers buy Blu-ray players. Alison Casey, who analyzes consumer trends for London-based Understanding & Solutions, told the Post that she expects retailers to pull the plug on HD-DVD sometime next year.

For its part, Apple sits on the Blu-ray Disc Association Board but has thus far deferred on committing exclusively to either format when it comes to hardware support in its Mac line of personal computers. The Cupertino-based company seems content in allowing the battle to run its course and is rumored to offer support both formats through its software in the interim.
post #2 of 88
How would this be possible?

Is the government giving out free HDTV in 3 years? When you walk through Target or Walmart you see DVD bins with GOOD movies for $7. How is the consumer going to take looking at the HD version for $27 as a good value?

You can rip your DVDs. Great for the Disney flick that your kids want to play incessantly. To date none of these HD formats allow for safely backing up your disc to a HDD.

Considering I can still easily buy VHS leads me to believe that there's a snoballs chance in Hell that any HD format can supplant DVD in a measly 36 months.

Sony hasn't had any success beyond the Playstation 2 yet they think they can beat DVD in 3yrs? Fuggedeboutit.
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post #3 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

How would this be possible?

Is the government giving out free HDTV in 3 years? When you walk through Target or Walmart you see DVD bins with GOOD movies for $7. How is the consumer going to take looking at the HD version for $27 as a good value?

You can rip your DVDs. Great for the Disney flick that your kids want to play incessantly. To date none of these HD formats allow for safely backing up your disc to a HDD.

Considering I can still easily buy VHS leads me to believe that there's a snoballs chance in Hell that any HD format can supplant DVD in a measly 36 months.

Sony hasn't had any success beyond the Playstation 2 yet they think they can beat DVD in 3yrs? Fuggedeboutit.

It is the same thing as the players why pay $800 for a blue-ray player when a ps3 is only 599 or 699 and you can run Linux on it. Also there are DVD player for under $50.
post #4 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

How would this be possible?

Is the government giving out free HDTV in 3 years? When you walk through Target or Walmart you see DVD bins with GOOD movies for $7. How is the consumer going to take looking at the HD version for $27 as a good value?

You can rip your DVDs. Great for the Disney flick that your kids want to play incessantly. To date none of these HD formats allow for safely backing up your disc to a HDD.

Considering I can still easily buy VHS leads me to believe that there's a snoballs chance in Hell that any HD format can supplant DVD in a measly 36 months.

Sony hasn't had any success beyond the Playstation 2 yet they think they can beat DVD in 3yrs? Fuggedeboutit.


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post #5 of 88
This is old news and Apple is barely mentioned.

About the PS3: Once more people start loading Linux-like OS onto their PS3's i'll follow their lead. Although it's not a legal marketing move, but think about it... something that plays, blu-ray, video games, 1080P content, and with Linux tacked on, you basically have a computer OS with even more media codecs. So you get all that for $599? heck ya sign me up

Another thing I found funny was that... remember back in the day, when you could buy a DVD-ROM or a DVD Burner... the same cannot be said for blu-ray, you HAVE to buy a Blu-ray Burner for a computer system, they dont make a blu-ray rom drive... I hope that changes. I wouldn't mind watching BD discs on my mac = )
post #6 of 88
<sarcasm>Yes, we all remember how quickly the 1.4 MB floppy was cast aside once superior storage formats were brought into the marketplace.</sarcasm>

I'm sure Blu-Ray will replace standard def DVD just as quickly.
post #7 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

You can rip your DVDs. Great for the Disney flick that your kids want to play incessantly. To date none of these HD formats allow for safely backing up your disc to a HDD.

strictly, DVD doesn't 'allow' for safely backing up your disc either. the DVD consortium never intended any such thing to be possible, that's why its all encrypted.

i don't really expect the encryption scheme of blu-ray or HD-DVD to last a whole lot longer.
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post #8 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by eizzumdm View Post

<sarcasm>Yes, we all remember how quickly the 1.4 MB floppy was cast aside once superior storage formats were brought into the marketplace.</sarcasm>

I'm sure Blu-Ray will replace standard def DVD just as quickly.



Yes of course. Because consumer move on to new technologies so fast. The hubris of this Press Release does not escape me. You're floppy analogy is on point. It took what 7 or years after the iMac 1st gen for companies like HP and Dell to say "hey we don't need floppies anymore"

This is like saying in 2000 "Zip drives will replace the floppy in 3 years"
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post #9 of 88
He's being optimistic, but he's wrong.

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post #10 of 88
As big of a fan I am of Blu-Ray... there is no way this will happen in 3 years
post #11 of 88
This likely will create a self-fulfilling prophecy, since it'll increase the momentum that the Blu-Ray format already has - HD DVD is in trouble, methinks.

3 years to replace DVD? Maybe to be on par with DVD, but not to eliminate it from store shelves. Old formats die hard, especially ones with an installed base as vast as DVD.
post #12 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by axc51 View Post

As big of a fan I am of Blu-Ray... there is no way this will happen in 3 years

Depends on how quickly they and HDTV sets go down in price.
post #13 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenRoethig View Post

Depends on how quickly they and HDTV sets go down in price.

I agree... keep in mind it's been many years already and we still can't find brand-new movies on dvd for less than $15 on sale. With blu-ray pushing $30 a pop, even those of us who can afford a 1080p tv with a PS3, it's hard to conjure up the cash for a decent blu-ray movie when the dvd equivalent is half the price.
post #14 of 88
Unless the price for HD TVs and Blu-Ray players goes down you won't have me switching anytime soon!
post #15 of 88
Ridiculous.

In three years time BluRay players might well be $100. Going up against $30 DVD players.

But people will have a large investment in DVD - players, recorders, libraries. In addition DVDs are cheap.

The fact is that DVD was vastly superior to VHS, with many many improvements that were obvious to the user, and it still took 6 or 7 years to start beating VHS.

Blu-ray only offers HD over DVD. That's nice, but for many people DVD will be good enough. Image quality is good, doesn't degrade, there's no need to rewind, and so on. I can see owners of 40"+ displays getting into BluRay within 3 years, but that's not even 50% of the market.

BluRay will replace DVD, no doubt about it. But I don't think it'll outsell DVD until 2012 at the earliest. Complete replacement by 2015 - 2018 probably. Sony may be trying to bring forward adoption by bundling it with the PS3, but that's not going to shift the entire market to BluRay within 3 years.
post #16 of 88
Personally, I think both Blu-Ray and HD DVD are screwed.

I think it's sad that Blu-Ray Disc Association is using PS3 as the savior for Blu-Ray. Since November, PS3 remains a distant 3rd to other gaming consoles (Nintendo Wii and Microsoft Xbox 360). That is a bit like an independent film studio hiring Sinbad to promote its film.
post #17 of 88
personally i want Blu'ray to win however for anyone to report this press release and consider themselves any sort of news service with integrity is laughable...

this press release is there to serve one purpose and one purpose only.... it is Blu-ray asserting themselves as the winner in the format war so people who don't know any better will take it at face value without doing any further research and jump on the BR bandwagon..... the BR Association is hoping news outlets will pick this up as legitimate news and report on it as if it is gospel

nobody should be reporting on ridiculous self-aggrandizing PR reports like these honestly.... this is no better than perpetuating spam.....

first thinksecret went down the tube after being sued and never offers good rumors any more and AI is putting out more and more trash articles...... if i wanted spam i would have a hotmail account.
post #18 of 88
I agree that it's overly optimistic. The VHS->DVD transition was a record breaking transition where it took only six years for DVD to pass VHS sales, in terms of media unit sales.

If the BRD groups think they'll beat that by three years, they are kidding themselves. Heck, iPod sales are doing phenomenally well, but even after five years, the iTunes store still only comprises 5% of the music sales, with pretty much all of the rest still being sold on CD. At that rate, even including some rapid acceleration, paid music downloads might not surpass CD sales ten years from now.
post #19 of 88
I'm with most of you who say that 3 years is ridiculous and impossible. Also, as someone noted, Blu-Ray doesn't offer distinct advantages over DVD. In fact, most people won't even notice the difference... perhaps even some with HD TVs. Blu-Ray only appeals to those who are videophiles and/or have huge TVs.

It's all a marketing hype to resell media to uninformed consumers.

I, on the other hand, think all optical media is barbaric. We should move to high-capacity ROM chips. Give it a USB2 or IEEE 1394b (Firewire 800) interface and it'll be plenty fast. Tada. Media players become small hub-sized boxes, and you can carry media around on your keychains. Done.

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post #20 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clive At Five View Post

I, on the other hand, think all optical media is barbaric. We should move to high-capacity ROM chips. Give it a USB2 or 1394 (Firewire) interface and it'll be plenty fast. Tada. Media players become small hub-sized boxes, and you can carry media around on your keychains. Done.

-Clive

Just to add, I'm verrrrrrrrry surprised the music industry hasn't taken this direction. I made the prediction that they would in 2003. Since then, only BNL have offered their record on a flash device.

-Clive
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post #21 of 88
What kind of volume of sales are we talking about anyway? If HD-DVD only has 2 of the top 25 movies and Blue-Ray has 23, and Blue-Ray is only outselling them 3 to 1, that speaks fairly poorly for their ability to capitalize on their media lead, I would think.

(and yes, I realize that HD-DVD has 2 exclusives out of the 25 according to the press release, which leads one to believe that they in fact have more of the 25, shared in release with Blue-Ray, but since the "press release" isn't explicit, neither am I).
post #22 of 88
Blu-ray is barely beating HD DVD with

1. A 4 studio advantage in content
2. A larger marketing budget
3. A 5:1 ratio in player sales.
4. A dearth of HD DVD releases in Q1 2007

Yet this dolt thinks that they can supplant DVD which has none of the aformentioed weaknesses?
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post #23 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

Blu-ray is handily beating HD DVD with

1. A 4 studio advantage in content
2. A larger marketing budget
3. A 5:1 ratio in player sales.
4. A dearth of HD DVD releases in Q1 2007

I fixed your typo for you
post #24 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by filburt View Post

Personally, I think both Blu-Ray and HD DVD are screwed.

I think it's sad that Blu-Ray Disc Association is using PS3 as the savior for Blu-Ray. Since November, PS3 remains a distant 3rd to other gaming consoles (Nintendo Wii and Microsoft Xbox 360). That is a bit like an independent film studio hiring Sinbad to promote its film.

filburt, you're taking a much too narrow view when you look at the PS3 strictly from a gamer's perspective. It's also a media player, in fact the most popular media player for the Blu-ray format. And as a game machine, I think Sony is taking the long view and that once more must have games title come out, then sales will increase in that segment of the market. Plus the PS3 Blu-ray format is designed to have a long life something that the Wii won't have due to its lack of HD.
post #25 of 88
I think you missed hmurchinson's point, Greg. The point is, Blue-Ray's market lead is quite pathetic in light of all the advantages they carry.

Codger: I'm not sure what that long life buys them when Sony decides 3 years from now it's time for the next generation of consoles. Hell, I doubt HD movie sales will have caught much traction by the time the new PS is due to be out.
post #26 of 88
I think Blu-Ray players will be ahead of DVD in revenue within a year or two. (For comparison, HD TVs have been ahead of standard definition in revenue for about 4 years.) In quantity of stand-alone players sold, I think Blu-Ray has a shot at beating DVD in 3-5 years, mostly because everyone's got a DVD player already. In quantity of discs sold, if they can offer Blu-Ray media that's compatible with standard DVD players for the same price as DVDs, Blu-Ray will easily surpass pure-DVD sales in a few years. Otherwise, not gonna happen.
post #27 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clive At Five View Post

I, on the other hand, think all optical media is barbaric.

Yeah, it's tantamount to clubbing seals for food.

Quote:
We should move to high-capacity ROM chips. Give it a USB2 or IEEE 1394 (Firewire) interface and it'll be plenty fast. Tada. Media players become small hub-sized boxes, and you can carry media around on your keychains. Done.live

That's still not anywhere near cost-effective. I think a DVD-9 costs about $0.50 a piece to manufacture, at about $0.05/gig, I don't know of any type of ROM chip that costs less than 100x that. Even assuming that DVD-9 costs stay the same and solid state storage drops on average of 66% a year, that's still five or so years away.
post #28 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenRoethig View Post

Depends on how quickly they and HDTV sets go down in price.

Hasn't it been 'the year of HDTV' for like 5 years now? Blah.

HDTV never really breaks through because the prices will have to be nearly on par with standard def TVs for Joe Pickup Truck to switch. That isn't going to happen for a couple of years yet, despite the steady decline in HDTV prices... there's still too much of a gap.

When you start seeing good name-brand HDTVs (not EDTVs) for $299 that are larger than a postage stamp, THEN it'll be the year of HDTV. I'm guessing 2010.

.
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post #29 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Yeah, it's tantamount to clubbing seals for food.

Have you tasted baby harp seal? Delicious.










I am so just kidding.


.
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post #30 of 88
Quote:
The Blu-ray disc association said Thursday that it's aiming to replace the traditional DVD storage format within the next three years.

"Within three years it will just be Blu-ray," said Frank Simonis, the Blu-ray Disc Association's European chairman, speaking at the CeBIT technology trade show.







.
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post #31 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hattig View Post

In three years time BluRay players might well be $100. Going up against $30 DVD players.

But people will have a large investment in DVD - players, recorders, libraries. In addition DVDs are cheap.

The fact is that DVD was vastly superior to VHS, with many many improvements that were obvious to the user, and it still took 6 or 7 years to start beating VHS.

But there is talk of hybrid DVD/BluRay discs. It could easily be possible that all the $7-$20 discs we see on Wal-mart shelves/bins 3 years from now are hybrid discs that have both formats. Shelf space costs money, as does producing outdated, low resolution discs that may never sell. Prices will drop as quickly as mass production ramps up.
Quote:
Blu-ray only offers HD over DVD. That's nice, but for many people DVD will be good enough. Image quality is good, doesn't degrade, there's no need to rewind, and so on. I can see owners of 40"+ displays getting into BluRay within 3 years, but that's not even 50% of the market.

There will be a significant shift in HDTV ownership over the next 3 years. That DVD is good enough on an HDTV is laughable (grainy DVDs already don't look that great compared to current OTA HD programming). I've already stopped buying DVDs in anticipation of BluRay prices dropping. Plus BluRay offers 5-10x the storage space of a DVD, better interactivity, Internet capabilities, etc.

Technology transitions have also been growing increasingly more rapid: records/tapes to CDs seemed to take an eternity compared to VHS-DVD. The time it took to get to DVD writers seemed almost instantaneous after DVD compared to how long it took till CD writers appeared after the CD format appeared. Now, of course the BluRay folks are giving an overly rosy picture of things, but this technology will be far, far cheaper even in the next 1-2 years than it is today.
post #32 of 88
Quote:
Blu-ray only offers HD over DVD. That's nice, but for many people DVD will be good enough. Image quality is good, doesn't degrade, there's no need to rewind, and so on. I can see owners of 40"+ displays getting into BluRay within 3 years, but that's not even 50% of the market.

Expanding on the 'good enough' point- there are cheap DVD players available (as low as $50-80) that upsample the resolution and deliver nice-looking output even on HDTVs. May not pass the videophile scratch-and-sniff test, but Joe Sixpack is probably happy enough with 'em.

"These [DVD] players can make meticulously mastered DVD's like the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy look HD-like, said Bob O'Donnell, an analyst at IDC, a market research company. They can also make a film that was hastily dumped to DVD surprisingly watchable... "

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/02/te...0dd2c3&ei=5070

(prices for such players have come way down since said article was published).
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post #33 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Yeah, it's tantamount to clubbing seals for food. .

Oh come on. You know what I mean.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

That's still not anywhere near cost-effective. I think a DVD-9 costs about $0.50 a piece to manufacture, at about $0.05/gig, I don't know of any type of ROM chip that costs less than 100x that. Even assuming that DVD-9 costs stay the same and solid state storage drops on average of 66% a year, that's still five or so years away.

That doesn't excuse the music industry. How much does 64MB of ROM cost? It ought to be less than a buck. You can fit most CDs with reasonably little compression onto 64MB. Sure it's a little more expensive than CDs but it's totally worth it.

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post #34 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Expanding on the 'good enough' point- there are cheap DVD players available (as low as $50-80) that upsample the resolution and deliver nice-looking output even on HDTVs. May not pass the videophile scratch-and-sniff test, but Joe Sixpack is probably happy enough with 'em.

"These players can make meticulously mastered DVD's like the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy look HD-like, said Bob O'Donnell, an analyst at IDC, a market research company. They can also make a film that was hastily dumped to DVD surprisingly watchable... "

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/02/te...0dd2c3&ei=5070

(note that prices for such DVD players have come way down since said article was published).

Yeah, my gf just bought this for me for my bday... and it improves image quality significantly over my older Sony DVD player. But it's still no way near Blu-ray quality, imo.
post #35 of 88
The only problem is Blu-ray isn't just competing with DVD.


There's still HD DVD
There's IPTV
There's HD Broadcasting

Consumers have more choices than ever. For some BDA lackey to say he plans to usurp the juggernaut that is DVD is laughable. Blu-ray has its work cut out just to fend off the other technologies.
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post #36 of 88
Even overlooking the obviously unrealistic idea of supplanting DVD in 3 years, I think the BluRay folks better start addressing quality and price before they go on making such statements.

Although I have not been able to compare the same titles, my own informal comparisons of BluRay vs HD-DVD have lead me to believe that for the time being, the HD-DVD implementation is superiour as far as video quality is concerned. Sure, I like BluRay's increased capacity etc...but realistically, for me the format is about video and every BluRay disc I have seen has been excellent, BUT, HD-DVD has always looked even better to me.

I don't think I am alone in this either as a lot of the AV mags seem to be saying the same thing (although in fairness much of this was due to Samsung's rather poor initial BluRay player).

But of course - there is no reason video quality should determine the winner (cough - Beta - cough).
post #37 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by axc51 View Post

Yeah, my gf just bought this for me for my bday... and it improves image quality significantly over my older Sony DVD player. But it's still no way near Blu-ray quality, imo.

You need a pretty large HDTV set to truly tell the difference. And that's still nowhere near the majority of the market yet. \

Blu-ray may replace DVDs, but it's gonna take a helluva lot longer than 3 years, for a lot of reasons. The Blu-Ray Association is smoking powerful super-crack that they should share with me.

.
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post #38 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clive At Five View Post

Oh come on. You know what I mean.

Yes, I do, but I think I should point that the hyperbole was lame, possibly as lame as this press release.
post #39 of 88
Blu-Ray will replace DVD for me when Apple gets off their collective duff and starts offing it in their computers.

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post #40 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

You need a pretty large HDTV set to truly tell the difference. And that's still nowhere near the majority of the market yet. \

It really depends on the setting and the person. To me, HD looks a lot better than DVD on my 15" MBP.

It won't make a movie better, but it will make the experience more vivid. But right now, the cost of everything doesn't quite justify the difference. Player costs will go down a lot, but I don't think it will be able to make a sizeable dent in the DVD market as most TVs still in use can't show all the detail on a DVD and a lot of people I know seem to be content with the equipment they have, won't upgrade until stuff dies.
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