Apple TV said to be worthy of overtaking both TiVo and Netflix - Page 3

Tivo has been on life support for a long time. Most of their subscribers are through DirecTV. DirecTV has terminated their relationship with Tivo and their DVRs will be phased out over the next couple of years. Tivo is deperately trying to make deals with other companies like Comcast (not yet released) and with Amazon Unbox. There are only 4.4 million tivo subscribers. This includes the directv folks. These directv folks cannot even use the Amazon Unbox. The amazon unbox works only for the series 2 and series 3 receivers with broadband connection. Guess what - people are complaining that all programs that people watch through series 3 (from amazon) are coming as 4x3 instead of 16x9. There are a lot of issues here. I can almost guarantee that in one form or another, one year from now, there will be more Apple Boxes out there than all of the installed base of Tivo.

Apple TV is a platform of its own at Apple and they will have a constant stream of products coming out. Since AppleTV is coming out pre-Leopard, I am sure once Leopard comes out there will be another product with cool features coming out.

So, while Apple TV may not be as big a hit as the iPod, it will easily trample Tivo.

But with the right set of support services AppleTV could be as big if not bigger than the iPod. To see how far it could go, just look at the number of car stereo and automobile manufacturers building in iPod compatibility. If Apple played their cards right they could duplicate this in the video arena, though it will be a much harder market to do so in.

If AppleTV gets a DVR that will allow me to watch shows that I recorded on my ipod video then I'm sold.

My Apple TV shipped this morning on time 3/20/07.

My point exactly

As far the Series 3 and Unbox, people should learn how to read. The Unbox pages clearly show that the content is 4:3 letterboxed widescreen. It's like all the iPod Nano owners complaining they can't play the iPod game they just bought. If people can't read, it's their own fault. If that's the only issue, I don't see where "there are a lot of issues here." Tivo and Unbox offers one very nice feature that Apple does not: the ability to re-download content. No need to clutter your Tivo or computer with files, just watch and delete. Want to watch it again, just download it again.

I think AppleTV will suffer the same fate as people discover it doesn't work with their non-widescreen TV (because they never bothered to read that was a requirement).

As for Apple TV trampling Tivo, it would actually have to be competing with it. I suppose it competes with the Tivo-Unbox link, but otherwise they are in pretty different spaces. Tivo provides time-shifting and recording abilities to anything provided by your cable/satellite provider whereas AppleTV only provides access to iTunes considerably smaller selection.

Quicktime is Appl's video framework, and as such I would imagine is the basis for the video playback in FrontRow and iTunes. It only makes sense for Apple to use this for Apple TV as well. Even if they were not using some form of OS X as the OS they could probably port the neccessary components over from QT faster than they could write and test a new framework.

Actually, the H.264 playback in AppleTV uses the GPU (an NVIDIA GeForce Go 7400). The underclocked CPU isn't fast enough to playback HD content. This is also why the AppleTV can't play DIVX/XVID videos.

And reliable program guides are another issue. For example, EyeTV's TitanTV EPG mysteriously decided to drop a popular channel from its downloaded listing that's still in the web interface listing. And the EPG skews the timezone for certain channels.

Well, Apple TV is missing some that target by not supporting 480i CRT SDTVs which do have component video input. Like I've said before, the product is both too good for my TV and not good enough to satisfy some HDTV owners.

That's quite an exaggeration considering aTV's rather limited video format support (per current published specs).

That's what I'll wait for. iTV is an absolutely horrible idea for watching um TV. Anyone that watches more than a couple of TV shows will quickly see the enormous disadvantage Apple's pricing scheme has. There's no way the iTV is even .001% threat to Tivo. Netflix maybe, but not Tivo.

I still stand by my statement that if they offered a DVR, they would sell 100x the amount of iTMS purchases. As it stands now, the iTV will never even make it in the door of most people's homes because it is rather pointless. If it had a DVR feature, it would have a reason for people to buy it, and then they would purchase movies, etc from the iTMS. If it never sells, they have little to gain.

Of course that's what they *want*. That's hopefully not what they'll get, not at that price anyways. I *want* a new Ferrari. Will I get it? No. Illogical expectations are just that, illogical and unprofitable.

Nothing
You are one of the few that actually is seeing this useless box for what it is, nothing. I'm with you -- after the initial sales rush, it will die if something major isn't added.

Tivo's can view your iPhoto library, stream you iTunes library, listen to podcasts, get movie times, weather, traffic reports, and tons more. Not as pretty as the iTV, but functional and a heck of a lot more practical since it is a DVR also. I've personally watched maybe.....3 youtube videos over the past 3 months, and am not really inclined to watch many more.

It all sounded good until that last line, "with each show coming at a fee". NO! Please god no. Subscription services will always win in this battle. When you're watching TV, isn't the last thing you want to think about and second-guess, the price of watching each individual show??

If I had to pay per episode, I'd either kill myself, or find a new hobby. No way in hell will this ever win me over. I'd be sweating every time I watched a show.....Conan, cha-ching $2.99....Heroes, cha-ching $2.99, Lost, cha-ching $2.99, brady bunch (?), cha-ching $2.99.....no thanks. That'd be the most stressful activity in my life.

Some analyst, I invested heavily in Apple when iTunes was introduced because it's merits were so obvious. But Apple TV seems headed for nowhere given the hardware and rental ommissions listed in this thread. And, TIVO cannot be written off yet for these reasons:

TIVO has signed with both Comcast and recently Cox. Starting this summer 30 million Comcast subscribers will be offered a TIVO premium service using the Comcast DVR.

Tunes are cheap -- movies are'nt and the movie/video industry doesn't want Apple to get a stranglehold on pricing. There are a lot of not so silent partners getting on board with TIVO. These include major studios not on Apples board and major advertisers who are desparate to breakout of the limitations of the old 30 second spot that is being blasted out of existence by fast forwarding. In a recent promotional agreement with Fandango and Warners a TIVO user could get tickets for Warner's Brothers "300" at any local theatre by simply using the remote to plug in a zip code--your name, credit card, address etc. is already on file with TIVO. In alternative advertising TIVO is being very innovative. Just, remember what Ad Sense did for Google. For more about advertising see http://www.tivo.com/5.5.asp

The TIVO is simple and elegant in its interface solely using a remote. For the typical coach potato it is all they need or want. Within a year one will only need the TIVO remote to download an Unbox movie. It's hardly a stretch to imagine browsing through categories of movies fed from it's Amazon Unbox partner via TIVO Central to your TIvo/TV--they already have the software.

Going through ones computer to download is just one more barrier but only a small one with Unbox. You can order Unbox movies at work and in two hours or less see them at home on a HD Tivo at its best quality recording--certainly better than Comcast on Demand. Once your TIVO and Amazon accounts are setup, Unbox gives you a simple choice in a popup as to which DVR you want it streamed directly to, e.g. the library or rec room DVR.

Actually the best part of the Apple HD video strategy is the Apple Airport Extreme (n). It really flew with my Comcast premium cable and Amazon Unbox servers. Even TIVO's 802.11 (g) wireless adapter did not seem to slow it down that much. I successfully downloaded movies direct to my two Series (3) HD-Tivo boxes. I was downloading 1.5 hour movies in thirty minutes and they looked great--near HD quality with no glitches or video artifacts that Comcast sometimes gives me. At these speeds I will redownload any purchase from my Amazon Media Library rather then waste any of my 30 HD hours on my TIVO, but mostly I will rent to view within 30 days.

By comparison I also downloaded a first season of Grey's Anatomy from iTunes. Watching the dowload window in Safari I was amazed to see it downloading 3 episodes at the same time in less than 30 minutes on the Mac Pro Quad. I would guess that it is using three cores of my Quad for processing downloads while reserving the 4th for my Safari/ online functions.

because downloads are extremely CPU-intensive, eh?

I dont think Apple TV will be the big hit to the film industry, Jobs still need time to get the film industry agreed for publishing movies thru iTunes..

I know it is the topic of this forum, but it seems ridiculous to talk keep talking about TiVo!!

aTV is NOT going after Tivo. You don't need to keep arguing the point anymore.

aTV is a big video iPod for you living room with streaming capabilities. That's it.

It is meant for the high end and for early adopters so of course you can all pick it a part and claim the Tivo/Comcast hegemony will remain strong. Apple isn't worried about TiVo, it is concerned with Microsoft and Sony.

Two years from now when there are significant numbers of folks with HDTV .... THEN it will do what you all think it should. It took the iPod 4 years to get to video capability, it will take two to three years for aTV and the internet itself to get to easy, on-demand downloads of the all of the content that will make the aTV so great ... by pay-to-own AND by subscription.

But don't let logic get in the way of a good argument. And Tivo and Unbox are not elegant enough.

So how is the Apple Airport Extreme downloading 3 episodes in three parallel streams to my Mac Quad, Chucker, I really would like to know? Its not so much about CPU power as about the parallel paths through my Mac to my harddrive and wether core technology expediates multiple downloads.

One of the benefits of being a tech stock investor is that it provides some not so guilty pleasure in trying out high end equipment to see what the future holds for most people. The problem with the stock analyst's Apple hype that started this discussion is that he apparently has no practical knowledge as a user.

Simultaneous downloads have been possible since the early '90s. Maybe the '80s. Downloading files takes up next to no processing power whatsoever, so one CPU core can just alternate all three of them easily and still be idling 99% of the time.

You can get you Applte to replace your TiVo but it certainly doesn't come that way. Look at the list of modifications needed and also find out if its worth your time at http://applehacks.blogspot.com

It's the latest AppleTV hack that interests me. Booting into and replacing your AppleTV OS X with a modified kernel version of Mac OS X via the USB service port without ever cracking open the AppleTV case.

I'm just waiting for the procedure to cleaned up a bit as it's a bit beyond my technical prowess.

what would small be? if iPods Shiped is 100million?

you try selling 10 million of anything

I'm still a little sad it's not got a gigabit ethernet port. It'd make a perfect little home server if it did with a big USB drive attached. It just stuns me that Apple's last two network products don't have gigabit.

Prediction: more than half the questions in Apple Stores and other stores will go like this:

So how do I record?

Rep: You can't.

Consumer promptly walks away.

Trust me, it'll go *you can't yet*

EDIT: If for no other reason than the rep will sell one and get commission.

How many people are fooled by the promise of ex post facto upgrades?

Dunno... how many Windows users are there again?

Aside from maybe the Vista coupons, what later upgrades are Windows users supposedly thinking they will be getting after they've bought the computer? The coupons don't count because the user gets documentation, not some implied or unwritten promise of an upgrade.

You've got a point--I'd probably do that, in good faith even, if I was that rep.

Just read an article dissing the Apple TV's image quality though, and it disturbingly apparently got its butt kicked by the XBOX. Unfortunate. As it is now, I'm telling you guys, it's the next HiFi. I just read that it doesn't have standard RCA jacks. Well guess what most TVs have? Oh, that's right. Standard RCA jacks. Hey Apple--good job cutting 90% of your market off! All those college students, and every other slob not lucky enough to have thousands of bucks to blow on an HDTV...can't use an Apple TV. Blah Blah target market blah blah. I like someone's quote about how you can define a target market all you want by just making it smaller. So I guess the Apple TV is in a similar market with the HiFi: people who shop at the Sharper Image.

The AppleTV? It has RCA Stereo ports. I half expected S-Video on the AppleTV, but certainly no Composite RCA video. The quality is just too low. I have a feeling that poor college kids aren't the target market here. I think the target market is people with HD sets and a lot of iTS purchases. I expect to see much higher video resolutions any day now.

28 Percent of Homes Have HDTVs; The group added that another 16 million HDTVs will ship into the marketplace this year.
http://www.tvpredictions.com/cea040907.htm


Some people skate to the puck. I skate to where the puck is going to be." - Wayne Gretzky.

I don't think Apple has any interest in supporting the floppy drive, serial port or standard RCA jacks. And a hair dryer like the 360 in the living room is not a good experience.

oh, by the way, the Hi-Fi is a very very successfully selling product. It is a best seller. Go figure.

Think about it.