Looming Palm takeover could hinder Apple - Page 2

So, could you explain your thoughts on why the iPod dominates the mp3 player market when, by what you've said above, everyone could and should have equalled it in design by now and crippled it in price?

Dare I guess you're one of the "Apple's marketing" crowd perchance?

To just round this off and bullet the things you're missing about the iPhone:

• functionality is USELESS if people cannot access it
• the iPhone Rev.A is just the first model, watch out for the equivalent to the iPod mini and then BOOM the iPod nano
• that user interface is 5 years ahead of anyone else's wet dreams
• seriously, compare it to what the competition have now, and compare their 2007 to what they were doing in 2002
• Apple have the stores to move this thing quickly from day one
• it is a single platform and as much as you may dislike that, observe the 3rd party accessory and soon enough iTunes market place software ecosystem grow

Sure, you're not buying generation one. Maybe you'll hold out from them permanently, I mean implying what you did about design being irrelevant and features being something to list on packaging instead of actually use, well it makes me wonder if you have a Creative a Zune or a Sandisk. But joking aside, if you want commentary on the iPhone and what's about to happen like the iPod all over again, you and anyone could do worse than heading here:

Device Problems In Search of a Solution

Boy, are there problems, and is there a revolution to be had in solving them instead of preaching to the choir.

Good stuff.

I stand corrected (and chastened).

Maybe it's Microsoft that are after Palm. Then they could make them brown ... OK, make with the poo jokes ...

How long did it take Apple's rivals to bring something up that can compete with the iPod?

Right, that did not happen so far.

Sony, over the time, had three complete product lines in the mp3-player business. Any serious threat for the iPod out of these? No.

I think with the iPhone it will be the same.

I read an article yesterday where some big wig at Sony was ranting about Sony missing the MP3 thing and screwing up the Walkman and how that should have become the iPod and Sony should never have allowed Apple in their market the way they did. The funny part was where he stated this time they get it. They are not going to let Apple win in the phone market. Sony understand the importance of music on a phone. ROFL!

Hahaha, thats what I'm talking about!

OT: What did the do with the PS3? How smart is it to bring out a console that works with their own blu ray format and not having enough blue ray leds/sensors (or what ever)???

I sold my sony shares after this and bought some more apple shares. Not a bad switch so far ;-)

I was kinda thinking the same thing. The only problem is, why would Apple WANT Palm? Palm isn't much of a competitor, and Apple's multi-touch technology is already beyond what Palm OS is capable of.

Why yes I can, they made a product that works. The interface is easy to use, and the syncing software is easy to use. They also hit the timing right by releasing a product in the early stages of this type of device.


???


Now you are just confusing the crap out of me?

The issue I have is everyone seems to think that this device will take over the cellphone market, that it is the most wonderful thing to hit the market. Sure it may have a pretty interface, but just because Apple has been lucky with the iPod, doesn't mean it will overtake the market in this area as well
[*]functionality is USELESS if people cannot access it

Well you can't get an iPhone so I suppose it's functionality is useless, and most major markets will not be able to get one for another year.
[*]the iPhone Rev.A is just the first model, watch out for the equivalent to the iPod mini and then BOOM the iPod nano

So you mean, I shouldn't buy another phone for three years incase Apple makes the iPhone better?
[*]that user interface is 5 years ahead of anyone else's wet dreams

What icons on the screen indicating functionality in the device?
[*]seriously, compare it to what the competition have now, and compare their 2007 to what they were doing in 2002

One minute you are praising the iPhone as the ducks nuts, then you are rubbishing it with comments like this? Apple has worked 2-3 years to get a product that some of these places have been selling for longer than that. Sure the multi-touch is fancy, but did they really invent that? Also the competition had a cool feature that long ago called "User installable Applications", maybe you have heard of them.
[*]Apple have the stores to move this thing quickly from day one

Not in the major cellphone markets they don't
[*]it is a single platform and as much as you may dislike that, observe the 3rd party accessory and soon enough iTunes market place software ecosystem grow

Is that the iTunes market place that only really offers non-music products in the USA?

And No, I don't have a Creative, or Sandisk, I have a 4G iPod, and my kids have iPods, and I have two Macs as well. But I don't know what me having an iPod has to do with Apple trying to get into the smart phone market

In many respects, I agree.

As it stands right now, multitouch can replace push-buttons. It also offers replacements for many common mouse gestures, using hitherto unheard of concepts like detecting multiple moving actuations simultaneously. It opens up new possibilities for manipulating many different sorts of imaginable GUI widgets, windows, etc.

But the technology, as we've seen it demonstrated so far, doesn't show signs of being practical for doing certain things which are kind of useful on traditional pressure-sensitive interfaces -- like the ability to jot down an image or note with any detail at all. You simply cannot "draw" a fine line with the round end of your finger on screens of the size we're talking about, no matter how carefully you press.

You can always dream. Any application that runs on both platforms from a single binary will be crap on both. The screen size and the onscreen keyboard make for two completely different user experiences. Who on earth fed you this nonsense?

m

I use a Palm TX. If the company introduces a refined, upgraded version (higher resolution screen, user-accessible battery, more RAM), I'd consider buying it. I know a lot of people have lost respect for Palm as a result of its changing strategies and struggle for a new OS, but the platform still serves a lot of people.

As far as Palm vs. Apple... Palm doesn't threaten anybody right now because it is its own worst enemy. But that could change with new leadership and an infusion of cash. Apple itself stands as an example--it too had a market-leading product, then spent years undermining itself. Apple was cured by what was effectively a takeover, so whos to say that a real takeover couldnt do it for Palm? I question the convention wisdom that Palm is a hopeless case.

Huh? Nokia have already won. They use Symbian on their smartphones. Worldwide it has a market share of 73%.

Palm have a market share of less than 2%. Windows Mobile 5.6%.

Nobody would buy Palm to leapfrog anything. Palm are right at the very bottom of the market. Even RIM buying Palm, still wouldn't get RIM past Microsoft.

As usual, this is US analysts being so narrow sighted as to not realise most of the world outside the USA accounts for 90% of the smartphone market. The US market is upside down, and tiny, compared to the rest of the world.

IMHO, some bank will buy Palm. The bean counters that 'run' Palm will take their golden parachutes. It'll become a Windows Mobile device only. And then die on it's arse in 2-3 years time.

You wouldn't know it by using any of their recent products. The Treo 650, while it has some nice capabilities, is a buggy and very poorly engineered piece of junk. See the dock connector on my girlfriend's Treo 650 that can only manage a good enough connection to sync maybe one in every 20 attempts. I was going to get a Treo 680 to tide myself over until rev 2 or rev 3 of the iPhone, but I just can't bring myself to do so -- feels too much like throwing good money after bad on a dying platform, though I still use a Tungsten T3 for work.

And for those who question whether the iPhone is a "smartphone" or not: what is your exact definition of a smartphone? One you can install extra software on? Or one that has a completely open SDK that anyone can develop software for? I believe Apple will follow the model for the iPhone that it's currently deploying for iPod games: work closely with select third party developers to produce quality software and sell it cheaply and conveniently through iTMS. While I have no idea whether the third party titles I would want on an iPhone will ever come to pass (hello, Documents To Go!), that model has a lot of huge advantages over the current ecosystems for WM and Palm OS apps. I've lost track of all the buggy, overpriced third party Palm software I've tried over the years, quite frankly.

And I wouldn't be too surprised to see an easy way to port Dashboard Widgets over to the iPhone sooner or later. And with such a full-featured web browser built-in, count on a whole raft of web-based apps targeted at the iPhone.

Speaking of Roughly Drafted, here's their article about the egregious incompetence of Palm that lays out their whole sad history very clearly:

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM...1512E423F.html

The only downfall of the iPhone is the current lack of third party development. While yes, this could muddy the waters, Apple could dedicate a team that review the apps. Think "Made for iPhone".

How killer would it be to have apps like OmniGraffle or Delicious Library on the iPhone?

I kind of think those will happen eventually. At the moment though, I reckon the lack of 3rd party development is because Apple doesn't have an SDK ready. That will come eventually I think.

Even on Symbian, Symbian themselves have to review the software that 3rd party companies produce before they can get a certificate. Every application is signed so that piracy is reduced and the phone doesn't suffer attacks from unsigned trojan apps. You've got to pay for a certificate too.

They relaxed that slightly for open source developers such that you can get a free certificate, but essentially every app on a Symbian phone only gets there if Symbian say so.

Hey, these guys aren't all dumb like everyone on the forum likes making them out to be... Not to say Apple will not top, but there is a half-way decent chance that the merger WILL tighten their supply line... Have you ever tried running a global company with thousands of employees? I haven't, I'm intimidated enough being the son of the owner of a closely held business (read less than 25 employees).

It only takes one great guy... Look what is happening to VW... practically the only car company that is actually doing better with the decrease of sales.

Yeah, maybe it is just an obverted sense of divide and conquer... That is what it seems like, but the potential for someone with a vision to step in is much higher, the danger much greater if that happens... And overall, more likely.

Yeah I was hoping we would see a developer session/SDK at WWDC this year but I am almost willing to bet it will be ready by WWDC 2008.

It looks a certainty that Apple are using LLVM (http://llvm.org/) on the iPhone but Chris Lattner (Apple's LLVM guy) was saying the ARM LLVM tools weren't available till LLVM 2.0 due in May. That's maybe a little early for Apple to release polished tools for WWDC 07 or the iPhone release in June, which is the real reason why I think they've not released an SDK, but 2008 looks a safe bet.

For me in the UK, it doesn't really matter. I've 6 months or so of USA-ian test patsies to sort out the issues before it arrives here and for Apple to see sense and stick a better camera in there and 3G.

Interesting. So these are not true Cocoa apps then? And the fact that Steve says it's running 'OS X' is just marketing?

I agree. My point is that its not going to be easy, just like it hasn't been easy for companies that make 'mp3 players'.

Z

It CAN compete - thats (part of ) the genius of it. I'll get to the patent comment in a sec...


I disagree, you see now that iPhone has set a 'standard', doesnt matter how good they think they are because:

a)while Apple hold's the patents over the interface and technology they hold ALL the cards.
and
b)everything will be compared to iPhone.


So they have a head start - doesn't mean anything long term. Case in point: iPod.


Thats the thing, they havent. Because the telco's own the industry, not nokia and ericsson.
Telco's dictate the features that are available on the network and the price to the user. Apple has devised a new way of providing a particular service then patented it to ensure THEY control when and how it is used.

Seeing a familar theme yet?


When they feel they need too you'd think. They are going for the broadest appeal.

MMS is not as big as sms and video calling is yet to take off in a big way anywhere outside places like Japan. They know exactly the market they are targeting and have built the hardware to match.


The smartest thing Cingluar have done is get on Apple's side. Don't think for a second thatr Apple has partnered with them if it didnt mean better things for them. Have a think how many sucsessful partners Apple has had in the past.

The theme is iPod. That bussiness model works, and what they are doing with iPhone is almost carbon copy - only this time, they have done it before.

Z

No, they're real Cocoa apps.

Cocoa is fairly small, and easily fits into the 500 MB version of OS X on the iPod.

Trust me, Cocoa is the first thing they put on there.

I hate to sound like i'm picking on you but....


Timing had noting to do with it - there were dozens of other players around when iPod was first released. It was the interface, but moreso the redefinition of the platform that changed the game.


There was certinaly lunk involved with iPod, but that is a lesson learnt. Apple are not stupid - the things learnt from iPod bode well for iPhone's sucess. It's already happning with the way Apple has forced control of Cingular.


umm...the US isnt a major market?
Sure - its not Asia, but its still massive!


Thats just silly! You should buy a phone when you need it - but i'm sure once you use one you'll find a way to need and iPhone


You should watch the macworld keynote video again, the icons are only a small part of it.
After you watch the video you shoudl go out and buy a $1000 Windows mobile device and try:
a) to use it without the stylus
b) not get angry while setting up network connection
c) not smash the thing while it's updating the screen because you changed to landscape mode
d) not get annoyed at how you ended up in the camera application after ansering a call and having the phne up to your cheek.

etc etc etc...


Sure have - uncontrolled, no standard crap mostly. Sure there is some GREAT apps out there but the platform is a mess, no matter how good the app is.

iPhone will have installable apps, just not what your thinking.


Because thats the same reason you'll buy an iPhone...you just havent relised it yet

Z

Sure they are. LLVM is a compiler writing and optimizing technology. It replaces part of the GCC compiler used in XCode, not Cocoa or Carbon or Quartz or anything higher up the chain. In Leopard, it's also used in the OpenGL stack to optimize shaders instead of there being a discrete PowerPC or Intel stack.

Lattner let slip that LLVM 2.0 would include ARM support in May. Now why would they be adding ARM support?

I don't think they have, they have set themselves a huge target for a particular subset of mobile phone types. I think they will be struggling to sell the 10,000,000 target


Well Europe has twice the subscriber levels of North America, and Asia Pacific has four times the levels of North America, so no, it is not massive.


Why would you send $1000 on a WM device when you are buy them for a couple hundred euro? Or more to the point, why would you buy one full stop.

I have a Symbian device, and I have had a Symbian device for several years, works great for what I need to do. Have no problems with network connections on it.


What mess? Only becomes a mess if the user allows it to become one. I've only had one Symbian application die on me, I stopped using that application.


If you could buy it without the cellphone part, then yes I would buy one, needs some extra storage on it though, plus a SDK pretty damn fast.

How can you say that, when all you have seen of the device is the keynote.


No


I think that is their issue, they have build a device for the USA. They will have to improve it a lot to compete in other markets.

I could build a toaster that "runs OS X", because it has a Darwin kernel controlling the task scheduler that determines how long to keep the heating elements turned on.

Maybe it has a programming API that would allow source-code compatibility with the full-blown OS X. (Or at least a similar coding paradigm with a reduced set of system services available.)

Maybe it has Universal Binary support, but that's the least likely outcome IMO.

But yes... Saying that it runs "OS X" without any qualification about what *parts* of OS X we're talking about, and how much of it can actually be leveraged by the user, is mere marketing in my books.

Totally. The smartphone market is so tiny in the USA that Apple also has a chance of dominating it too since Nokia, SE and most of the European phone manufacturers don't bother with the US for the most part, and the few carriers capable of picking up Nokia's top end phones tend not to.

By comparison, the Nokia N95 was launched this week in Europe. 5mp camera with a Carl Zeiss lens and decent flash, 3G inc HSDPA, WiFi, GPS, Application Downloads from the phone, WebKit based browser built in, Nokia Mapping (like googlemaps), SD card slot. I can already buy it on my carrier for £29 (yes TWENTY-NINE) with my usual £40 a month contract including a FREE 3 year sat nav subscription. It's smaller than the iPhone though a little thicker at 21mm.

That's what Apple are up against, not some crappy Treo, overly simple Blackberry or Windows Mobile rebadged HTC oversized brick.

Good thing we do know what parts they're talking about: Cocoa, Core Animation, Core Image. Sounds pretty OS X-y to me.

That's good to know. So I guess it will be in an Xcode 3.1 release...or 3.5 at WWDC 2008 in a 3.5 release

I'd expect Apple to announce it under the developer spotlight rather than just throwing out a new version and saying 'guess what?'

I second that but now that raises an interesting question...when Mac OS 10.6 comes out, how will the iPhone be updated to take advantage of it's new services? Surely it will exceed a few hundred megabytes...and would we get free (OS) upgrades at that?

Individual frameworks are smallCore Image is ~9 MB, WebKit is ~20 MB. Also keep in mind that things added to newer OS updates won't be added to the iPhonethe iPhone won't have Spaces, or Time Machine, or things like that. I have no idea what will be added in 10.6, but I doubt it would add more than 20MB to the iPhone's OS X.

Also, bear in mind that 2 years from now, the iPhone will likely have 2-3x the space available.

in 12 months? They have under estimated by a fair margin - don't forget that target is not just for the US.


It's by far big enough to start with! iPod was Mac only when it was launched remember...as i said, there is a theme to this.


Because in Australia thats how much they cost...or there abouts. I wasnt being literal just trying to point out the things that iPhone has fixed. I notice how you avoided my examples of things that are just crap about WM - which is fine, execpt its the whole point about why iPhone will be huge and why Moto/nokia buying Palm makes zero difference.



ok then!



I was talking about Windows Mobile, anyway - Apple like to 'control the whole widget'. In this case it seems unlikly they will open it. At least not at the moment.

You cant reprogram a toaster - its a closed system. Apple is pushing these things as appliances. Apple TV is another example of that.


Then it wouldnt be an iPhone, it would be a touch screen iPod with an organiser and you can drop the 'internet communication device' too. As much as it would probally be a 'cool' device - the appeal for such a device just isnt broad enough outside the kind of people that talk about these things at length...like all of us

Z

Easy - its that good. iPod wasn't this good when it was released and we all know how badly THAT went.



hahahahah ok then!



They have built a device with broad appeal - i agree, in the US. But i disagree that it will have to improve 'a lot'. As i said earlier, this is a platform device. 3G is coming, amongst other things.

Z

2006 world wide sales of smart phones were 80 million, Apple wants a 12.5% market share in one year?


Maybe we need to start adding a country to the $ sign, there are a few places using a $.

Again, the sales of Windows Mobile Devices are that low that they are not worth mentioning, I have used a few pocket PC devices in the past, and if the Windows Mobile devices are similar they won't be that nice. Nokia current has some 42% of the smart phone market, sure you could say Apple could attack this, but then your arguement about the iPod being dominate fails, as someone could do the same in this market.


Apple does well in these areas as they are marketing to people that just want things to work, they will not always suit the 'geeky' person as it doesn't support this format, and that format. So Apple may find some sales of the iPhone here, but you are also talking about a very small market. Also you are talking about some US$500 for a phone, on a contract. If Apple do their normal practice, this will be 500 in Europe (US$666), with for a 2 year contract, they are going to be very hard pressed to compete here on that price. ie the Nokia N95 is around US$900, but can be brought on contract for under US$200

But it wasn't released into a market where there was 1 billion similar devices being sold per year, with 80 million similar devices sold each year.


That is the issue, it is all talk at the moment, we need to see the finished device, and really the v2 feature set.

Nope - Again, iPhone isnt a smartphone. Apple said they want 1% of the whole phone market which is 10 million devices.


ahahah - you seem to be missing the crux of the issue, maybe i'm not explaining myself properly....

You can quote market share numbers until the cows come home, the reality of it is that no one can do anying remotly like the iPhone, because every part of it is protected by patents. As i said before - the current market share numbers dont count for anything because even though its a phone, thats just one of the things it does. You cant compare it to a Nokia device...even though companies like them will suffer becuase of it.


On the contrary, its a HUGE market. It's 'geek's that are the minority. Almost everyone will pay more to get somehting that does the job properly, again iPod is a perfect example of this.

There were and still are lots of other options around, that do more for less - yet people pay more and get an iPod.

iPhone is exactly the same, the writing is on the wall. Even if you dont believe me

Z

It was released into a worse situation, where there were dozens of competing products that offered a more rounded solution and 'better value'.

Yet the ability of the iPod to do what it does so well and Apple's redefinition of the product class changed the way people think about music players. Now you think music player, you think iPod.


There is a saying the car racing: When the flag drops the bullshit stops.
I think you'll find that its players like moto, palm, nokia, sony etc that will have to stop making out like this is just another phone rather than Apple have to make up ground.

Z

If that is the case, then it will be even harder to reach their target, they have to compete against people paying between 0 and 100 euro for a phone that does what they want, the customer will be asking, why should I pay 500 euro more for a phone.


The reason you can't compare it to a Nokia device, is because everyone is trying to say it is not a smart phone, Nokia sells similar products, they have a lot of symbian devices available, and a lot more in the works. They have their N800. Apple is walking into their backyard, and Nokia are not a small company. Jobs can bring the RDF about patents up all he likes, that is what every seems to think is going to make them win.

Remember, Philips had a patent on the 3 head shaver, Braun still made one, and won the lawsuit that followed.


Like I said, most people use a phone for calls, and sms, they are going to have to be given a heck of a lot more to justify 500 euro more.


You cannot compare the iPod and the iPhone, even if you don't believe me.

It was marketing, Apple actually market the iPod, you would think they would have learned to market the Mac as well, maybe they would increase sales that one.


The issue is, v1 is just that, just another phone.