Originally Posted by SDW2001
This is not good. Not at all. This could easily lead to a massive US/UK strike. Imagine if they attempt to try these men or even execute them. It all makes me question the sanity of Iranian Government. Iran is going to be turned into a smoldering pile of rubble. And I think they either know it...or more insanely...don't.
I think the seizing of these sailors is yet another of Ahmadinejad's constant strategies to *divert attention*.
First, from recent snippets I've read, the economy in Iran pretty much sucks, with high unemployment and general economic malaise. Instead of actually addressing economic issues that would directly benefit the Iranian people's day-to-day existence, he spends his time stirring up international confrontations - to divert their attention from the fact that he doesn't seem to have a clue how to improve the national economy, and that it's getting worse by the day because of the trickle-down effect of sanctions and other ineptness of the Iranian leadership.
He plays games of brinksmanship on the world stage, partly to 'swagger about' and show that Iran is a 'player'; but mostly to keep the people from booting him out: i.e., how could they even 'consider' changing the leadership when their nation is in the middle (yet again) of an international crisis.
Second, he stirs up continual crises on the world stage to divert international attention from the Iranian nuclear program. For example, I still believe that the seizing of the Israeli soldiers - that led to the recent war in Lebanon - was just another Iranian-inspired diversionary strategy that took on a life of its own. (I realize that I'm oversimplifying here, but... whatever. )
There seem to be two alternative scenarios in the minds of those who wish to see something 'done' about Iran. One is to encourage the people to revolt and change the leadership to a regime more amenable to themselves (and to the West). This alternative is rather amorphous, uncertain, high in time requirements, and therefore unlikely.
The second alternative is to blow up the Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities. Quickly done, much more certain, and probably what will happen if Iran continues on its present course. The strikes would target nuclear facilities, and maybe any 'hard' military assets that might be used in response: airfields, aircraft, ammo dumps, missile-launch sites. I think a *huge* effort would be made to avoid human casualties in any first strike.
You know, if *I* were an Iranian leader, and had been trying to divert world attention from nuclear enrichment facilities, I wouldn't go around making speeches broadcast round the world threatening to wipe other nations off the face of the earth. What a twit.
I think the sailors will be held for swapping down the road. They'll undoubtedly be tried, but I really don't think they'd be executed. Even Ahmadinejad isn't *that* crazy.