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Windows Vista sales figures daunt Apple

post #1 of 104
Thread Starter 
Microsoft touted the breakneck pace of Windows Vista sales on Monday, pointing to the dramatic improvement over XP's early figures and creating an imposing benchmark for Mac OS X Leopard's initial success.

The Redmond company was keen to report the positive uptake on its new operating system, claiming that over 20 million copies had traded hands worldwide in the month since the official Vista release on January 30th.

Those figures easily doubled the numbers managed by Windows XP, which itself had record sales of 17 million units in the two months after its release in October 2001. Putting the company's success in perspective, however, Windows marketing director Bill Mannion noted that the results were good but not out of line with his employer's goals.

"It's a little bit better than what we were expecting," he said.

Microsoft's new statistics seemingly canceled out its earlier cautious stance, which had been pragmatic at best: just last month, company CEO Steve Ballmer had labeled investment groups' predictions "optimistic" and warned that Vista was primarily the firm's way of sustaining marketshare.

Nevertheless, the sales will prove a potential barrier to Apple's own quest for a greater piece of the market. Upon its release in 2005, Mac OS X Tiger's success managed only a tenth of its Windows XP rival, selling 2 million copies in its first four weeks. Roughly 7 million copies were sold in the year as a whole.

Further emphasizing the challenges faced by Apple are the company's demographics. The computer maker reported 19 million active users of Mac OS X at last year's WWDC gathering -- meaning that Apple's entire user base could fit into less than a single month of Microsoft's most recent OS customers. A reported swelling of the former's ranks to 22 million this month, according to analysts' estimates, would still be overshadowed by Windows.

Without immediate evidence of Vista floundering in its intial sales, Apple's long-term success will therefore depend more than ever on Mac OS X Leopard's release in the spring to boost its stake in the computer business, possibly riding the coattails of Vista towards its own sales spike.

"We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade mindset' among PC users," said ThinkEquity analyst Jonathan Hoopes earlier this month. "And we expect Apple CPU unit shipments to benefit from Vista tailwinds [and] the release of Leopard."
post #2 of 104
The numbers quoted by Microsoft include all sales of new PCs that came with Vista preinstalled, as well as people who purchased Vista-ready PCs in December and January that came with free upgrade coupons.

This doesn't sound to me like a lot of people have shelled out hundreds of bucks for Vista in a box to put on their existing PC. It just sounds like people have continued to buy PCs, which constitute about 96% of the market. No big surprise there. As the news reports say, this has not caused a bump in hardware sales. It's just business as usual.

Implications for Apple? Very few, I think.
post #3 of 104
So you mean to say that more people bought a new computer than in the same period six years ago?

"Wow."
post #4 of 104
"We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade mindset' among PC users," said ThinkEquity analyst Jonathan Hoopes earlier this month."

Does he expect this new mindset to boost Mac sales? I wonder if this analyst ever saw the latest Apple commecials --
how about the one that says that only PC users need to worry about the "major surgery" of hardware upgrades...
post #5 of 104
also a 3 million increase from 17m to 20m isn't all that great when you think about how many more PCs there are now from when there were when XP was released
post #6 of 104
... or am I missing something?
17M units XP in the first two months (60 days).
20M units since Jan 30, which was 56 days ago.
How is that double?
post #7 of 104
"Given that the PC market has almost doubled since XP launched, Vista sales "probably should be more," said Michael Silver, vice president of research at Gartner, a technology research group.

Silver said 51 million PCs were sold to consumers worldwide in 2002; this year, the research group predicts 96 million consumers will buy a computer.

The analyst also noted that the number of holiday-season upgrades, which actually represents a backlog, rather than new sales since Vista's end-of-January launch, could take some wind out of Microsoft's sails.

Silver estimates PC makers sold between 12 million and 15 million PCs with Windows XP Home Edition over the holidays. While Microsoft wouldn't say how many Vista upgrades were ordered in that time frame, Dell Inc. spokesman Bob Kaufman said about two-thirds of its holiday PC shoppers registered for the upgrade.

"That would say that those (Vista sales) numbers aren't all that great if that includes all that backlog," said Silver.

Shipments of Vista to U.S. retailers in February lagged XP's first-month shipments by about 56 percent, according to the NPD Group, which tracks retail software sales."

In other words, Microsoft are being a little economical with the truth in their press release. I don't think anyone at Apple is 'daunted' just yet.
post #8 of 104
This also includes people in SMB and Enterprice up adding XP still to thier network. M$ sells then a liecnes for Vista but the client uses XP. I work at a Large VAR and this is how we seel XP now!~
post #9 of 104
How is the dominant platform people are locked into (or think they are) a benchmark for the underdog's next release?

How is the Win98 base upgrading to XP--which was a MUCH smaller base of users--a benchmark for XP users upgrading to Vista today?

And how are Vista sales a benchmark for Apple's financial success OR the success of the product as something great for users to get their hands on?

Microsoft has really been grasping at straws (rather than truth) lately. Apple was depending on Vist sales "floundering"? I had no idea that was necessary
post #10 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike Henkes View Post

This also includes people in SMB and Enterprice up adding XP still to thier network. M$ sells then a liecnes for Vista but the client uses XP. I work at a Large VAR and this is how we seel XP now!~

Back away from the crack pipe. Now.
post #11 of 104
Shall22's quotes from the AP story hit the nail on the head. If you look a bit inside the numbers, you'll see that Vista sales are actually struggling quite a bit, despite what Microsoft is trumpeting.

It's quite telling that first month Vista shipments are 56% less than where XP was at the same stage. And while 20 million sounds impressive on the surface, when you factor in that 60-75% of those "sales" are via upgrade coupon redemptions for free or heavily discounted copies, that doesn't sound good for Microsoft at all.

If anything, Apple should be encouraged rather than daunted by these numbers.
post #12 of 104
Oh, for heaven sakes. I was expecting to see this garbage article, but not regurgitated without challenge by a site like AppleInsider. What is with these crumby articles lately? A Sprint Phone that cannot even compete with the iPod in terms of music playback, while completely missing out on the key innovations of the iPhone, presented as a threat of some sort to the product. Paying homage to DigiTimes’ ridiculous suggestion that OS X would be delayed for Vista of all things? This is just bad reporting. An Apple website should research these matters so they are comfortable with the sources, then present the story along with the truth behind it.

As for this article, it represents three key considerations:
1) Copies of Microsoft Vista pre-installed on over-the-counter units.
2) Copies of Microsoft Vista theoretically pre-sold in that upgrade program.
3) Copies of Microsoft Vista shipped—stuffed into retail channels—awaiting sale.

#1 in particular has been generous to them this time around. Why? Because they have gone to great lengths to strip XP from the retail channel. If you are shopping at big-box stores you are going to have a tough time finding new PCs with Windows XP pre-installed. You are also going to have a tough time buying Windows XP over the shelf. Microsoft is forcing Vista upon its customers, many of whom are not happy about it—particularly elderly who aren’t ready for more change, and old computer users who are faced with a new system that will not be backward compatible with their peripherals. It is no wonder so many have ‘sold’?

How about the actual over-the-counter Vista upgrades? You won’t be seeing those numbers—they are selling horribly. Most of the people who are excited enough to run Vista on a pre-Vista system are actually pirating it—or can’t afford it, and businesses want nothing to do with it.

None of this should come as a surprise though. Microsoft has been doing this for some time now.

Edit: Hell, this probably also includes all the OEM licenses HP, Gateway, Sony, Toshiba, and others have purchased in bulk but haven’t even shipped yet. All the computers waiting to be shipped, that have been shipped, that are sitting around in warehouses across the world.
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post #13 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by nevenmrgan View Post

So you mean to say that more people bought a new computer than in the same period six years ago?

"Wow."

Absolutely correct. What's even funnier is that this "20 million" figure may also include vouchers given to PC purchases as far back as november.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070326/micro...ales.html?.v=2

Pay attention to the fourth paragraph and onward.
post #14 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by nevenmrgan View Post

Back away from the crack pipe. Now.

why? i worked at a hospital that had 2000 pc's. We were still running 95/98 but every pc we bought came with 2000, then xp. what he said is true.
post #15 of 104
The real number, as others have pointed out, is the non OEM sales. Not many want Vista, since XP is not that bad. When I installed XP, it was over a ME install, so you know I really wanted it. Thus far, I have yet to meet a single person who 'wants' it over XP.
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post #16 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluebuoy View Post

The numbers quoted by Microsoft include all sales of new PCs that came with Vista preinstalled, as well as people who purchased Vista-ready PCs in December and January that came with free upgrade coupons.

I was wondering if those numbers included the "free upgrade to Vista" coupons they've been handing out with new computers for months; thanks.
post #17 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgworek View Post

why? i worked at a hospital that had 2000 pc's. We were still running 95/98 but every pc we bought came with 2000, then xp. what he said is true.

Yeah, this does happen in small businesses today, but it isn’t anywhere near as common as it was in the past. Any hospital big enough to require 2000 PCs, these days, would have a contract with a company such as IBM for their hardware. This hardware would be installed by the providing company (e.g. IBM) and would be pre-configured to meet the customer’s needs. IBM would not use or deploy Vista OEM licenses in these cases [nor would most of the computers meet Vista system requirements]. But don’t worry, Microsoft is getting their Vista ‘sales’ through plenty of other means.
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post #18 of 104
as if the amount of something sold was any indication of its qualtiy...

-----
the count
http://thecountsworld.blogspot.com/
post #19 of 104
Smoke and mirrors. It's all about how you push the numbers around. Anyway, it's just that many more people using a crappy OS and makes Mac users more special.
post #20 of 104
Apple roughly owns 6% (as of Dec. '06) of the PC market. Roughly 20 Million users. Well, how can 90% of the Windows-based PC market, which is by-far more than 20 million, have only bought 20m copies (or computers preloaded) with Vista -and that it be considered: "a little bit better than what we were expecting"? Wow, is Microsoft really that pessimistic? Three months into Leopard, Apple could sell 20 million copies to its rising mac user base. It seems to me that Microsoft is doing exactly what Big Brother would do...lie to the masses (and themselves) over their deprivity and ignorance...or shame.
post #21 of 104
How bout those numbers broken out as actual individual OS sales over the counter...not OEM.

I'm planning on getting a new PC for the Office Manager here at work as soon as I get a sec, and I'm already looking at having to go Vista because of it showing up in all the OEMS .

I really don't want it on our systems right now and really want to stick with XP..., but may soon be out of luck.

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post #22 of 104
The math in this article is fuzzy at best. Was it proofed?

• 20 million to 17 million is nowhere near "easily doubled."

• How is 2 million in four weeks a tenth of 17 million in two months? We can't say what it is because we don't know the four week figures for Vista or XP, but it's somewhere near a quarter, if anything.

• How does 19 million Mac users equal less than one month of MS operating system sales? The closest relevant figure is the 20 million in two months for Vista.

I'm really struggling with the math here (NOT, but someone apparently was...). This sounds like an MS fanboy's dream... Please pay attention to numbers since any credibility this post had completely vanished with the basic mathematical errors that a high-school education should equip one to avoid.
post #23 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by tink View Post

I'm planning on getting a new PC for the Office Manager here at work as soon as I get a sec, and I'm already looking at having to go Vista because of it showing up in all the OEMS .

In the business world it still isnt too hard to find XP machines. If you have any control over the process, you might want to look into it? Business providers still have XP machinesyou just dont see them in stores anymore. Heck, the so-called business representatives at stores like Best Buy can also order XP machines through their special retail channels. Just pretend youre running a business.
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post #24 of 104
There was a point to this article being here ?
post #25 of 104
man listen if there doing so good why is the stock doing so bad, and i can name you more than 50 windows users that i know and out of those 1 thought vista and tock it out and install the old xp because its too complicated he said, that report is bull and if you dont think it is just ask your local computer store and they will tell you its the worst thing they cough have made since vista came out msft lost more than 20billion and since apple introduce the iphone which is not even out they made over 15billion
post #26 of 104
This is silly. There's no way Apple can compete with Microsoft numbers. This is not exactly news.

What's far more interesting, is to see what Leopard brings to the table. Apple needs a big, big leap right now over Tiger - since the distance between Tiger and XP was pretty big, yet Vista has partially closed the gap with Tiger. Now, if Apple is to get any traction against Vista, they need to make the gap between Leopard and Vista at least as big as the gap between Tiger and XP. Why?

Remember when Win 95 came out? Right. Even though it was barely catching up to Apple's OS at the time, it was "close enough" - and it removed folks motivation for going to Apple "Win95 is almost as good as Apple's OS, so I'm staying with Microsoft". It pretty much gutted Apple. Before that, Apple had a fighting chance because Windows 3.1 etc. was just such a vastly inferior system.

And here we are again. Switching from XP to Tiger makes some sense, cause the differences are pretty big. If Vista is too close to what Leopard can do, Apple will get gutted again. Remeber, Apple cannot sustain their business based on their installed base. They MUST get people to switch to really get the numbers to grow (there are not enough people who have never had a computer before, so the only way to get a bigger market share is to take it away from Microsoft).

I don't know what "secret features" Leopard has, but so far I'm not overly impressed with Leopard (I do like Spaces, though).

It is in this context only that Vista matters - if it is "good enough" compared to Leopard, folks may not want to switch. If you already own a Nissan, you may not go for a Toyota (even if the Toyo is slightly better), but you may go for a BMW. This is why Leopard must blow Vista out of the water. And I fear, it may not. I guess all hope is now in those "secret features". We'll see if that's enough to get folks to switch in big numbers.
post #27 of 104
Daunt? DAUNT??? Surely you jest!
post #28 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xian Zhu Xuande View Post

Yeah, this does happen in small businesses today, but it isnt anywhere near as common as it was in the past. Any hospital big enough to require 2000 PCs, these days, would have a contract with a company such as IBM for their hardware. This hardware would be installed by the providing company (e.g. IBM) and would be pre-configured to meet the customers needs. IBM would not use or deploy Vista OEM licenses in these cases [nor would most of the computers meet Vista system requirements]. But dont worry, Microsoft is getting their Vista sales through plenty of other means.

ROFLMAO....I "AM" the Desktop Administrator for two hosptials well into the 3500 node range according to my last AD scan.

We do have a contract w/ Dell but no way in hell would I allow them to pre-install any image to put on our network. Thats what M$ made RIS server for. Rapid deployment with easily configured images and software packages via group policy. O wait thats right, Apple doesn't do that...huh?
post #29 of 104
Daunt? DAUNT??? Surely you jest!
post #30 of 104
Vista is fine.

All I care about is that Leopard sells enough copies to stick around and is useful enough for Apple to continue development. 2mil copies? bueno.
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post #31 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Nevertheless, the sales will prove a potential barrier to Apple's own quest for a greater piece of the market. Upon its release in 2005, Mac OS X Tiger's success managed only a tenth of its Windows XP rival, selling 2 million copies in its first four weeks. Roughly 7 million copies were sold in the year as a whole.

  1. It's pretty much impossible to buy a new WinPC without getting some version of Vista installed*
  2. Windows marketshare is a hell of a lot greater than 10x that of OS X that the 20M to 2M comparison shows Vista is not being adopted quickly.
  3. Installed base of Windows is several times greater now than 6 years ago when XP was introduced actually shows a severe lack of interest in Vista by consumers.



* I have several Brazilians staying with me right now. With the outrageously high cost of electronics in Brazil they have all purchased many devices. All the Windows notebooks purchased came with Vista and everyone of these notebooks ran excruciatingly slow, even the C2D notebooks with 1GB RAM. I installed Portuguese versions of XP on their systems, which obviously made even the el cheapo <$500 HP notebooks they bought run fairly fast. The problem I then found was that the support sites for these notebooks had absolutely NO drivers for XP. I then had to spend a very long time DLing and trying XP drivers for random model numbers whose specs looked similar and hunting down the compatible drivers from the actual hardware manufacture's site.
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post #32 of 104
New M$ products are always accompanied by FUD and Apple death knells. BFD.
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post #33 of 104
My Microsoft stock says you're lyin', Ballmer (for those not aware... MSFT is in the crapper).

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #34 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by shall22 View Post

In other words, Microsoft are being a little economical with the truth in their press release. I don't think anyone at Apple is 'daunted' just yet.

Good find, the SeattlePI article is better, you get every point of view (Microsoft, Gartner and NPD) and no nonsense about Apple.
post #35 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraklinc View Post

man listen if there doing so good why is the stock doing so bad, and i can name you more than 50 windows users that i know and out of those 1 thought vista and tock it out and install the old xp because its too complicated he said, that report is bull and if you dont think it is just ask your local computer store and they will tell you its the worst thing they cough have made since vista came out msft lost more than 20billion and since apple introduce the iphone which is not even out they made over 15billion

Well said!
post #36 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by fenevad View Post

The math in this article is fuzzy at best. Was it proofed?

20 million to 17 million is nowhere near "easily doubled."

How is 2 million in four weeks a tenth of 17 million in two months? We can't say what it is because we don't know the four week figures for Vista or XP, but it's somewhere near a quarter, if anything.

How does 19 million Mac users equal less than one month of MS operating system sales? The closest relevant figure is the 20 million in two months for Vista.

I'm really struggling with the math here (NOT, but someone apparently was...). This sounds like an MS fanboy's dream... Please pay attention to numbers since any credibility this post had completely vanished with the basic mathematical errors that a high-school education should equip one to avoid.

The numbers weren't appropriately framed in the Appleinsider story. The 20 million copies were sold "in" February. With that number the following is now possible.

1) 20 million in one month is double the rate of 17 million in two months.
2) 2 million in four weeks (28 days, a la February) is one tenth of 20 million
3) 20 million Vista's sold in one month > 19 million Mac users
post #37 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by FineWine View Post

What's far more interesting, is to see what Leopard brings to the table. Apple needs a big, big leap right now over Tiger - since the distance between Tiger and XP was pretty big, yet Vista has partially closed the gap with Tiger. ...

I think XP vs. OS X v10.0 is the correct comparison here, if we are basing off of time-relativity
post #38 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by trailmaster308 View Post

ROFLMAO....I "AM" the Desktop Administrator for two hosptials well into the 3500 node range according to my last AD scan. […] We do have a contract w/ Dell but no way in hell would I allow them to pre-install any image to put on our network. Thats what M$ made RIS server for. Rapid deployment with easily configured images and software packages via group policy. O wait thats right, Apple doesn't do that...huh?

Huh? What does this have to do with my reply? If your company is purchasing these computers with Vista licenses, whoever is making that financial decision should be fired. Period. The only possible exception would be if your company is actually using Vista, which would absolutely astonish me. And this has nothing to do with Apple.
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post #39 of 104
I looked at going for Vista, being a old XP Pro user and looked very hard at Vista, but with any MS OS, it's better to wait 18 months before even thinking about moving in that direction, so I decided to move over to a MacBook Pro, even though they are more expensive, which is one thing the is hindering Apple and it's sales. The other reason is that there are more apps written for Windows than Mac's. People don't want to loose the apps they know to another OS they hardly know anything about and don't have the time to search what a Mac can do. They want it now and they want it run like XP, well sort of.
post #40 of 104
The OP wrote: "Nevertheless, the sales will prove a potential barrier to Apple's own quest for a greater piece of the market."

What?! or What!? (I still wish that Time magazine had been able to make the interbang popular.)

Vista sales have no relevance to Mac OS X sales.
You can't avoid Vista if you are buying a new computer. (Yes, I know that you can still get XP installed, but you have to work at it if you are a consumer standing in the store.)

Apple is 3% (at best, with a tailwind) of the worldwide computer market.
So, let's do some assumptions:
1. Computer growth is flat.
2. Apple increases its share by 50%. That is huge in case you were not paying attention.
3. Therefore, Windows share falls by 2% (at most). OMG.

This is right up there with: "zillions of people bought gasoline (petrol) powered automobiles last week which will prove a barrier to electric car's quest for a greater piece of the market."

The OP is a retard (my ad hominem attack).
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