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Report: iPhone could make or break Apple's bank

post #1 of 132
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Wealth management experts have banked on the iPhone as the driving force behind Apple's near-future growth -- but cautioned that the fourth major platform in the company's lineup could also eat away at the very iPod share that has helped build its recent success.

Joining comments on Apple from his fellow investment bank analyst, UBS specialist Tony Andersson on Wednesday ventured beyond the Mac, addressing the more difficult subject of the iPhone while offering high net worth financial consulting to the firm's top clients.

In a note directed only towards those private investors, the researcher remained confident that developments in Apple's cornerstone iPod and Mac sales would carry the California-based company upward, growing the former to 24 percent of the world's media player share and its share of computers by half a percentage point. Mac OS X Leopard in particular would help the Mac, he said.

However, Andersson labeled the iPhone as the real spark for Apple's flame in 2007. It would help jumpstart Apple's revenues both during the June launch of the handset in the US as well as towards the end of the year, when the device should make its first appearance in Europe.

He added that there was no reason to doubt that Apple would meet its target share for the end of next year, alluding to the company's tendency to rarely leave its product line unaltered.

"We think the iPhone can gain 1% of the worldwide market share by 2008," Andersson pointed out, "particularly since we expect more than one model in the next two years."

This optimistic forecast, however, presented a mixed blessing from the analyst's point of view. To him, the self-same explosion of iPhone sales could potentially tear people away from the iPod, creating a squeeze as shoppers are increasingly forced to choose between one or the other. Other music-savvy cellphones were also a possible threat to the iconic music jukebox and the 47 percent of profits it should generate for Apple this year, he said.

Similarly, the periods immediately before and after the iPhone's debut were also seen as treacherous paths where Apple could scarcely afford to stumble if it hoped to continue its excellent track record. "Negative news, delays in the iPhone launch, quality or usability issues" could easily damage Apple's reputation and its stock, Andersson cautioned.

The UBS specialist used this reasoning to justify issuing a "hold" rating on the stock, as the promise of the future gadget was offset by its potentially volatile side-effects.

"The recent rally of the stock reflects much of the iPhone expectations and leave little room for any negative news flow," Andersson wrote.
post #2 of 132
I suppose I can cross UBS off the list. If an iPhone sale means a "lost" iPod sale, then all that means is even more money for Apple. Besides, there's growing market pressure for more function convergence, if Apple can make it work, then that's another worthy market for them to tap. Apple also has plenty of money and is very profitable, so I don't see how iPhone development would have to mean hurting other divisions and other projects because they can hire more people to cover a new project, so I don't see how it has a strong chance of hurting the development of other products.
post #3 of 132
I am tired of hearing the same old analyst's canard that company X's new product B is a mixed blessing because it might cannibalize sales of their other product A. This refrain has been played so often that people have started to believe it. The fact is, successful manufacturers are constantly seeking to cannibalize their own sales with new product because if they aren't doing it, then somebody else will beat them to it. Cannibalizing your own sales means that you're consistently developing new, more advanced, and more desirable products.

You want a company that doesn't do a good job of cannibalizing its own product? Take a look at Motorola and it's boom and bust cell phone cycle.
post #4 of 132
Everytime I read this... The fact is the iPhone doesn't replace the iPod or even the iPod nano. There's a lot of people out there still who don't want to have a cellphone or have to sign mutl year agreements...

If the iPhone eventually becomes flexible, so you can use any carrier, prepaid plans, etc... then it might be close to being bigger than the iPod. But the iPhone will likely have to be charged everyday... doesn't have as much storage as an iPod, it's bulkier than the nano. If they ever release a widescreen ipod with all the features of the iPhone except the phone part, I'd buy it...
post #5 of 132
And AAPL isn't also gaining because of the best laptops on the market, Intel Macs with Parallels, new OS Leopard due soon and new 8 core, new FCPro Suite due and new CS3 and ... Oh sorry it's just due to iPhone how silly of me ...
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post #6 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

I am tired of hearing the same old analyst's canard that company X's new product B is a mixed blessing because it might cannibalize sales of their other product A. This refrain has been played so often that people have started to believe it. The fact is, successful manufacturers are constantly seeking to cannibalize their own sales with new product because if they aren't doing it, then somebody else will beat them to it. Cannibalizing your own sales means that you're consistently developing new, more advanced, and more desirable products.

You want a company that doesn't do a good job of cannibalizing its own product? Take a look at Motorola and it's boom and bust cell phone cycle.

This is THE point. This what they said about the mini->nano transition. 'They're replacing such a successful product...' blah blah blah. This is another area the Apple really excels at the moment. They don't wait for a product to be on the decline and dragging them down to find 'the next great thing' they go ahead and find it beforehand. tundra is right, you want them to cannibalize their own sale, at the right time, and with something even better.
post #7 of 132
Quote:
To him, the self-same explosion of iPhone sales could potentially tear people away from the iPod, creating a squeeze as shoppers are increasingly forced to choose between one or the other.

Does this really matter? It's not like Apple would be losing out on a sale. He's trying to separate the products when really they're the same, albeit one with more features. What would be negative is for other companies losing out, being when someone is looking to upgrade their phone AND iPod they might turn to Apple for an all-in-one solution.
post #8 of 132
What the iPhone truly needs to succeed, in view of its obvious disadvantages (high price, limitation to Cingular, small memory for music/video, lack of voice dialing, etc.) is a KILLER APP.

Such an app could well be DICTATION-OCR SOFTWARE (since a microphone is already present, and a stripped down OS X) . . . software that would let a user dictate an outgoing Email, or dictate text that could go into a rudimentary word processor (like TEXTEDIT), and thence to a memory file or, by any one of several means, to a printer if desired.

Then that device, trademark issues permiting, could be renamed the POCKET MAC !

And then that software could well be incorporated into LEOPARD, which would give it the boost needed to stand out as more than a slight improvement over TIGER !
post #9 of 132
I love how these analysts say "we expect the iPhone to take 1% of the worldwide cellphone market through 2008" and, I believe from yesterday, "we expect Apple to sell 10M iPhones through 2008".

That is what Jobs said Apple's predictions are back at MacWorld 2007! Com'n people, If you aren't gonna do any real number crunching at least start off with a courteous "We agree with what Steve Jobs said...".
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post #10 of 132
This is "anal-ysts" trying to talk the price back down to where they should have bought aapl, but didn't.
Apple doesn't sell iphones now, so if they sold zero iphones, they would be in the same financial situation they are now... looking great for Mac sales now that CS3 will be shipping, looking great for ipod sales because nothing can touch it (wait until the touch screen ipods!), looking great for software - Final Cut Studio gettin a great update at NAB (I didn't say nothin').
All in all, buy Apple stock now!
post #11 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlFeldzamen View Post

What the iPhone truly needs to succeed, in view of its obvious disadvantages (high price, limitation to Cingular, small memory for music/video, lack of voice dialing, etc.)

It really doesn't have voice dialing? Man, I need that! My Samsung has such great voice recognition, no learning, it just works. If this is true, I'm very disappointed. .

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post #12 of 132
Apple is Doomed!!!!!


post #13 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

It really doesn't have voice dialing? Man, I need that! My Samsung has such great voice recognition, no learning, it just works. If this is true, I'm very disappointed. .

Oh and it doesn't make coffee or walk the dog either,

I assume your Samsung has Safari running along with Address Book, Listen to voice mail in any order feature, touch controls and all the other zillion new things iPhone does have then?
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post #14 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Oh and it doesn't make coffee or walk the dog either,

I assume your Samsung has Safari running along with Address Book, Listen to voice mail in any order feature, touch controls and all the other zillion new things iPhone does have then?

No but I don't think I'd be able to use that while driving anyway. I buy everything Apple and that short coming won't stop me from buying one but it will not replace a cell phone that has voice dialing. I just can't get by without it. Did I mention I really really need voice dialing.

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post #15 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

No but I don't think I'd be able to use that while driving anyway. I buy everything Apple and that short coming won't stop me from buying one but it will not replace a cell phone that has voice dialing. I just can't get by without it. Did I mention I really really need voice dialing.

Ok you are forgiven

Thinking about this further ... this is a Mac of sorts, hard to believe some bright spark won't add this feature later.
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post #16 of 132
I think there is no doubt that the iPhone sales will to some extent replace iPod sales as iPhone owners realize that they have no need for an additional device in the form of the iPod.

Customers moving to a different, newer product from the same company as such does not affect profits as long as number of customers, units per customer, and margins are at least maintained (and Apple seems very capable of achieving and surpassing these targets).

The main concern I would see, that having to deal with network operators, their tie-ins, their mandatory contracts, and their subsidies of handsets might mess up Apple's operational freedom such as to reduce their ability to sell ever higher number of devices at generous margins.
post #17 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by noirdesir View Post

I think there is no doubt that the iPhone sales will to some extent replace iPod sales as iPhone owners realize that they have no need for an additional device in the form of the iPod.
.

Maybe some but not many. I bet my wife and me are typcal of many iPod owners. We have both of our 60 GIG iPods almost full of our CDs and Audio books. We use them to connect to other Hi Fi systems as well as listen in Cars and on the beach. I don't think iPhones (which we will get) can replace this functionality nor would we want them to really. Maybe one day when an iPhone has a massive storage capacity?
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post #18 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by noirdesir View Post

I think there is no doubt that the iPhone sales will to some extent replace iPod sales as iPhone owners realize that they have no need for an additional device in the form of the iPod.

The iPhone is only a viable replacement/substitute for the shuffle or nano - not the 'real' iPods with HD's It just hasn't got enough capacity.
post #19 of 132
Sure there is overlap between the iPhone and iPod markets, but... not one-for-one. Not at all.

I for one have always thought iPods were useless. I have no need for one and frankly can't understand why people spend so much money on them. But for years I have been dying to get something half as good as the iPhone.

On the flip-side, there are plenty of people who have 2, 3, or more iPods. Are these people going to stop buying iPods just because they have an iPhone? They really might not want to take their $500 iPhone out on the bike trail for some blading... when they could take a relatively cheap, unobtrusive Shuffle instead.
post #20 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Ok you are forgiven
Thinking about this further ... this is a Mac of sorts, hard to believe some bright spark won't add this feature later.

ummm, at the risk of flogging the proverbial deceased equine, its not released (nor probably even feature frozen) yet. We don't know what is or isn't in the final release.

As for killer app, does any phone have 'personal blacklisting'?
Voice spammer burns me once, but with one click I prevent future calls from even getting to my voicemail. Seems simple enough, and boy, would I love that.
post #21 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by TednDi View Post

Apple is Doomed!!!!!



teh doomed!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #22 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB View Post

ummm, at the risk of flogging the proverbial deceased equine, its not released (nor probably even feature frozen) yet. We don't know what is or isn't in the final release.

As for killer app, does any phone have 'personal blacklisting'?
Voice spammer burns me once, but with one click I prevent future calls from even getting to my voicemail. Seems simple enough, and boy, would I love that.

I think you answered your second paragraph with your first
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post #23 of 132
i agree about voice dialing.
if i'm driving i need to be able to press a button on a headset, say a name, and that's it.
i can't be trying to use a NON-TACTILE phone to make calls while driving.
i can't believe apple would leave this feature out.

as for this topic... apple profit on iPhone vs. apple profit on iPod?
yeah, they're doomed if people can choose to upgrade to a product with a bigger profit margin. just doomed.
if only the topic were "expert says iPhone will either hurt, help, or not affect apple profit"
post #24 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by cnocbui View Post

The iPhone is only a viable replacement/substitute for the shuffle or nano - not the 'real' iPods with HD's It just hasn't got enough capacity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Maybe some but not many. [...] Maybe one day when an iPhone has a massive storage capacity?

I absolutely agree. Mainly nano user might consider leaving their nanos at home and only travel with their iPhone. I was thinking longer term when iPhones had a large enough capacity.

The only reason why I might not get an iPhone right away (apart from money) is its size. My cellphone is always in my trousers pocket, in order for me to be able to notice the vibrational alarm. As long as their are cell-phones smaller than an iPhone, I guess I will prefer them. Once the iPhone shrinks to the size of the nano, I'll definitely get one, regardless of price.
post #25 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB View Post

As for killer app, does any phone have 'personal blacklisting'?
Voice spammer burns me once, but with one click I prevent future calls from even getting to my voicemail. Seems simple enough, and boy, would I love that.

Now that you mention it, i'd love to have an option--like with AIM--to only receive calls from people in my Address Book.
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post #26 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheToe View Post

They really might not want to take their $500 iPhone out on the bike trail for some blading... when they could take a relatively cheap, unobtrusive Shuffle instead.

And another phone? Some people originally bought their first mobile phone partly because they want something in case of roadside emergencies in their car. If you take a nasty fall in a secluded part of a park, then one might want a phone to take along. While we're at it, any phone that plays music can be good enough if it just needs to make a call and play tunes.
post #27 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Ok you are forgiven

Thinking about this further ... this is a Mac of sorts, hard to believe some bright spark won't add this feature later.

Just wait until all of the major auto companies start talking about iPhone integration..

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post #28 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Just wait until all of the major auto companies start talking about iPhone integration..

BMW has already mentioned it. They should have it by the time the iPhone ships. As for the other manufacurers and 3rd-party stereo manufactuers, it won't be hard to do since the dongle is exactly the same. Just a software change, which I'm sure Apple is more than willing to help out with.


PS: Has anyone heard of Zune integration in cars? Iam getting ahead of myself here, I should be asking if anyone even knows someone with a Zune.
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post #29 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

BMW has already mentioned it. They should have it by the time the iPhone ships. As for the other manufacurers and 3rd-party stereo manufactuers, it won't be hard to do since the dongle is exactly the same. Just a software change, which I'm sure Apple is more than willing to help out with.


PS: Has anyone heard of Zune integration in cars? Iam getting ahead of myself here, I should be asking if anyone even knows someone with a Zune.

I think the Russians have put together a Lada with Zune.
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post #30 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

BMW has already mentioned it. They should have it by the time the iPhone ships. As for the other manufacurers and 3rd-party stereo manufactuers, it won't be hard to do since the dongle is exactly the same. Just a software change, which I'm sure Apple is more than willing to help out with.

Was there any change at all? The most I can think of is maybe adding more functionality, but I'd think that existing units should work just fine if Apple was smart enough to keep backwards compatibility. If I spent hundreds of dollars on iPod integration, I would not want to spend hundreds more just to make the existing system work with a new device in the same product line.
post #31 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheToe View Post

I for one have always thought iPods were useless. I have no need for one and frankly can't understand why people spend so much money on them.

I am a real music lover and I think the iPod is one of the best things to ever happen in music playback systems.

So much money? An iPod can replace what used to be your walkman, your in car CD changer and your home Hi-Fi's CD player. Compared to the combined cost of these three products an iPod is cheap!

This is exactly how I use mine. I guess if you don't listen to music much an iPod could be useless.
post #32 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I think the Russians have put together a Lada with Zune.

And I here that the French have put together a Renault and a Zune.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Was there any change at all? The most I can think of is maybe adding more functionality, but I'd think that existing units should work just fine if Apple was smart enough to keep backwards compatibility. If I spent hundreds of dollars on iPod integration, I would not want to spend hundreds more just to make the existing system work with a new device in the same product line.

I would hope so, but since it uses a different OS I have no way of knowing if they were able to keep it that simple. I've considered that they found it easier to make all the software changes in iTunes instead of altering how the iPhones transmits/recieves audio info.
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post #33 of 132
Yet another shoddy headline by AI. Where in the analyst's words does he say verbatim " iPhone could make or break Apple's bank". AI does no't seem to understand that it''s headlines are often cited on financial sites like Forbes, Google, WSJ, NYT, IBD, Yahoo,etc and that people who peruse those sites often don't read the cited articles, they just note the headline. In this case, AI (a well known Apple evangelist site) has created a headline with a negative connotation. This is , IMO, shoddy journalism.

Moving on from my rant on yet another poor AI headline, since one iPhone equals one cell phone plus one Ipod, some of the relevant financial questions are;

*What are the profit margins on the cell phone part of the iPhone?
*How many iPhones will Apple sell?

New additional Apple profit equals profit margin on the cell phone part of the iPhone times the number of iPhones sold.

*What are the profit margins on the Ipod part of the iPhone?
*How do the profit margins on the Ipod part of the iPhone compare to a "regular" Ipod?

Apple hardware Ipod profit then equals [profit margin per iPhone Ipod times number of iPhones sold] PLUS [Ipod profit margin on "regular" Ipods times number of "regular" Ipods sold].

Finally, one has to ask whether the iPhone will boost iTunes sales. While this is unknown at this point in time, assuming that iPhone owners will have ready access to the iTunes store, will they buy more music and/or videos while at work, at play, in the airport, at a boring wedding reception, at the in-laws for Thanksgiving dinner,etc ?
post #34 of 132
.....
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post #35 of 132
What is being said here doesn't make sense, as many others have mentioned. Here's a few simple reasons why.

1) If you cannabilize one of your other products with one that makes you more money, then you are doing your job. If you do it with one that makes you less money, then you have problems. Cannabilization can hurt you if a lower margin product eats away at your higher margin products. I mean geez, is this stuff really that hard for analyst to figure out?

2) As stated, they expect the iPhone to maybe gain 1% of the mobile phone market? Doesn't that like leave 99% of the mobile phone market as potential iPod customers even if you make the poor assumption that every iPhone customer won't buy an iPod? How do they lose here, because the only way they could eat away more iPod market share is to grow the 1% to so 5%, and if they do that (which they won't) then they'll nearly own the world.

Am I missing something here?

IQ78
post #36 of 132
The headline suggests the the iPhone has the potential to bankrupt Apple. That's absurd at face value.
post #37 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

And AAPL isn't also gaining because of the best laptops on the market, Intel Macs with Parallels, new OS Leopard due soon and new 8 core, new FCPro Suite due and new CS3 and ... Oh sorry it's just due to iPhone how silly of me ...

Yeah, it is odd. Mac CPU sales up 72% year over year in March, and an iPhone that doesn't perform well will sink Apple to the bottom of the barrel. Jeesh.

Lets see, I have 3-4 functioning Mac laptops and a couple desktops (if a Mac Mini qualifies). Then I have a couple iPods (not counting the ones I've given away). iPods can be used for so many things that a cellphone is not going to get me to dump the iPods. In fact, I may get a Shuffle just for audio books/podcasts when traveling.

I really think some of these analysts spend too much time talking to other analysts rather than finding out how people REALLY use technology.

For me and other people I have talked to about the iPhone, the main reason to buy an iPhone has NOTHING whatever to do with SONGS!

iPhone represents the clean integration between a Mac and the Internet capability that has people stoked. Secondly with the prospect of communcations & computing power in your pocket on little applications means that you can leave your laptop at home or work during lunch.
post #38 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoC View Post

Yeah, it is odd. Mac CPU sales up 72% year over year in March, and an iPhone that doesn't perform well will sink Apple to the bottom of the barrel. Jeesh.

Lets see, I have 3-4 functioning Mac laptops and a couple desktops (if a Mac Mini qualifies). Then I have a couple iPods (not counting the ones I've given away). iPods can be used for so many things that a cellphone is not going to get me to dump the iPods. In fact, I may get a Shuffle just for audio books/podcasts when traveling.

I really think some of these analysts spend too much time talking to other analysts rather than finding out how people REALLY use technology.

For me and other people I have talked to about the iPhone, the main reason to buy an iPhone has NOTHING whatever to do with SONGS!

iPhone represents the clean integration between a Mac and the Internet capability that has people stoked. Secondly with the prospect of communcations & computing power in your pocket on little applications means that you can leave your laptop at home or work during lunch.

Cpu sales are up 72% since last March? Where are you getting your numbers from? Apple hasn't even announced the numbers yet.
post #39 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoC View Post

Yeah, it is odd. Mac CPU sales up 72% year over year in March, and an iPhone that doesn't perform well will sink Apple to the bottom of the barrel. Jeesh.
... ... ...
For me and other people I have talked to about the iPhone, the main reason to buy an iPhone has NOTHING whatever to do with SONGS!

nothing? it's an iPod video with a phone. that's HALF songs/videos. i don't care about surfing the net on a tiny screen, having to zoom in and out of web pages.

i want a "convergence device" or all-in-one or whatever they're being called for one simple reason:
Less Stuff to carry in my front pocket. eventually they will get to where i WISH they were, but the iPhone is good enough for me to buy in now.
post #40 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

You want a company that doesn't do a good job of cannibalizing its own product? Take a look at Motorola and it's boom and bust cell phone cycle.

I'm just wondering - how many people out there currently have either a smartphone or a phone that has "decent" music playback features, AS WELL AS an iPod? Chances are, there's a good piece of the market that will end up having an iPod (especially once the widescreen iPod comes out) as well as an iPhone. They're similar devices, and there will likely be some cannibalization, but I don't think it'll be significant.

Besides, do these "analysts" REALLY think that Steve didn't consider this yet?
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