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Interest in Adobe CS3 booms, Photoshop World sells out

post #1 of 28
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Since Adobe's launch of Creative Suite 3.0 last month, interest in the software amongst creative professionals has skyrocketed, with nearly all attendees surveyed at this week's Photoshop World conference saying they plan to update to one of the new bundles by year's end.

Creative professionals, eager for a glimpse of the new Adobe suites in action, flocked in herds to the Boston, Mass.-based Photoshop conference earlier this week, selling out the show for the first time in its history. Researchers from investment research firm PiperJaffray were on hand for the event and spoke one-on-one with 73 professionals regarding their spending intentions for 2007 versus last year.

"Surprisingly, nearly all of the 73 Adobe customers in our sample said they expect to move to a CS3 suite in CY07," Sr. Analyst Gene Munster wrote in a report summarizing the firm's findings. "Specifically, 96 percent said they expect to move to CS3 this year, which is up from the approximately 70 percent we have heard in our previous three surveys."

Munster partially attributed the sharp uptick in demand to Adobe's "impressive integration" of applications within its new Creative Suite product lines, saying it appears to be increasing near-term buying intentions amongst potential buyers.

Of particular interest to would-be Adobe investors, added the analyst, is that many Adobe customers who intend to move to CS3 this year are currently users of individual "point products." Therefore, with single product customers buying up into the higher priced suites, Adobe's per customer revenues should increase significantly.

"Of the 73 Adobe users in our survey, 3 percent currently use CS1, 44 percent are on CS2 and 52 percent are on Photoshop," he wrote. "In other words, more than half of the customers that intend to move to one of the CS3 suites are currently on point products."

As a benchmark, Munster noted that the average selling price (ASP) on an upgrade from Photoshop to CS3 Web or CS3 Design is $1,300, while the avg ASP for an upgrade from CS2 to CS3 Web or CS3 Design is only $340. "So those that move from Photoshop will pay nearly 3x what CS2 customers will pay," he told clients.

On average, creative professionals polled by PiperJaffray said they plan to spend 32 percent more with Adobe in 2007 than they did in 2006. That figure is up significantly from the firm's previous two surveys conducted before the announcement of CS3, when Adobe's customers said they were expecting to spend just 10 to 20 percent more in 2007.



"We are currently modeling for 15 percent creative segment revenue growth in 2007," said Munster. "The increased overall spending expectations are no doubt a result of the higher intention by customers to move to a CS3 suite during the year."

In concluding his report from Photoshop World, the PiperJaffray analyst offered investors four compelling reasons to buy Adobe shares. Among them, he said, are expectations for a solid May quarter, conservative Street models for fiscal 2007, and pent-up demand for CS3 amongst creative professional customers. He also added that shares of the San Jose-based company are currently trading at a discount relative to previous upgrade cycles.

Munster's bullish outlook on the software maker includes an Outperform rating and $51 price target.

Amazon.com is offering slight discounts on pre-orders for all Creative Suite 3.0 products.
post #2 of 28
Don't know if it was an error but the Apple Store listed Photoshop upgrade for $159.95 the first day, now it is $199. I bought it the first day and confirmed my order today and it is still $159.95 on my order. Guess it pays to be quick sometimes, my wife doesn't agree but that's another story.
post #3 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Since Adobe's launch of Creative Suite 3.0 last month, interest in the software amongst creative professionals has skyrocketed, with nearly all attendees surveyed at this week's Photoshop World conference saying they plan to update to one of the new bundles by year's end.

Surprisingly, no mention of Apple and/or the potential positive impact that this will have on hardware sales.

I'm also looking forward to seeing Photoshop benchmarks for the new OctoMacs
post #4 of 28
of course everyone they asked at the big adobe product conference plans to buy it - who the hell would go the conference if they weren't a hardcore adobe user? and what adobe hardcore user wouldn't upgrade rather soon - it's pretty ridiculously obvious survey taking here to get some rigged numbers charts happening for the media.

How about following it up by a survey on Appleinsider to find out how many people think OSX is better than Windows...
post #5 of 28
what I really despise is the fact they called it a launch last month. The product doesn't launch in 2 weeks.

Sadly, this marketing ploy worked and got a lot of people amped.
post #6 of 28
Well... CS3 DesignPremium (if there was any doubt marketing could be even sillier than Apple's extreme this and extreme that: here it is) has turned up in certain channels online, so I'd say it was a "launch" of some sort...
If I'm amped about of CS3, it is not because of the launch event, but because it is working really nicely on Intel Macs. (Don't worry, no pirating here: my upgrade is ordered, even though prices here in Europe are up to 70% more expensive than in the US).
post #7 of 28
Superbass,

That is too funny LOL.

You are right.

Never the less I think this may be the year where many who upgrade to CS3 will also get a new Intel Based Mac.
post #8 of 28
It was obvious that CS3 would bring in big upgrade dollars for Adobe.

The product's finally Universal, upgraders are coming both from the Adobe and Macromedia worlds and for many people it's the first upgrade worth buying since the original CS launched.

However, I wouldn't put too much money into Adobe stock just yet. Everyone I've talked to intends for this upgrade (along with a new Intel Mac) to last them four years at a minimum. That's a long time for Adobe and likely means that most plan to skip the next update in 18-24 months and then move to CS5 - or whatever they're calling it then.

And I still don't quite understand Adobe's pricing on the suite. The upgrade from Photoshop to the Design Standard (I don't have CS) will run me US $899, or $1035.00 Canadian.

However, I can upgrade InDesign, Photoshop and Illustrator separately for CAN$699. from the Apple Store. Since I don't need Acrobat Pro, I think I'll just upgrade separately. I want to see what the new GoLive offers before I commit to Dreamweaver anyway.
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post #9 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

of course everyone they asked at the big adobe product conference plans to buy it - who the hell would go the conference if they weren't a hardcore adobe user? and what adobe hardcore user wouldn't upgrade rather soon - it's pretty ridiculously obvious survey taking here to get some rigged numbers charts happening for the media.

How about following it up by a survey on Appleinsider to find out how many people think OSX is better than Windows...

Did I miss it or they didnt say how many of the "73 Adobe customers" are OSX/windows users... that would determine if ADBE is a better stock to get than APPL I had ADBE like 10 years ago, I did well with it but decided to sell at ~$40s and get AOL then I totally forgot about it until AOL tanked
post #10 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

It was obvious that CS3 would bring in big upgrade dollars for Adobe.

The product's finally Universal, upgraders are coming both from the Adobe and Macromedia worlds and for many people it's the first upgrade worth buying since the original CS launched.

However, I wouldn't put too much money into Adobe stock just yet. Everyone I've talked to intends for this upgrade (along with a new Intel Mac) to last them four years at a minimum. That's a long time for Adobe and likely means that most plan to skip the next update in 18-24 months and then move to CS5 - or whatever they're calling it then.

And I still don't quite understand Adobe's pricing on the suite. The upgrade from Photoshop to the Design Standard (I don't have CS) will run me US $899, or $1035.00 Canadian.

However, I can upgrade InDesign, Photoshop and Illustrator separately for CAN$699. from the Apple Store. Since I don't need Acrobat Pro, I think I'll just upgrade separately. I want to see what the new GoLive offers before I commit to Dreamweaver anyway.

Professionals, and the companies that use this products are not going to wait 4 years. The upgrade costs are of no account. People who like to think they are professional, because they do some work on the side, may wait.
post #11 of 28
" ... while the avg ASP for an upgrade from CS2 to CS3 Web or CS3 Design is only $340 ... "

I think this is not correct, cause un upgrade from CS 2 Standard to CS 3 Standard Design costs
845,79 ( = 1.100 $ ) for the Dutch version or 724,79 ( = 950 $ ) for the English version !
post #12 of 28
I realize this was an Adobe interest article but for me it would be interesting to know of these attendees how many were Mac users. Plus how many were now going to move to Intel based Mac Pros as CS3 has long been given as the reason for so many hold outs at the high end. The obviously good timing of the 8 Core Mac Pro too now in the mix makes this even for of interest to AAPL stock holders. Will we now at last see the sales of Intel Mac Pros take off as I hope?

NAB is still to come and I am sure FCPro Suite 6 will also help boost Mac Pro sales. All in all, I am optimistic the Mac Pro sales will be off the charts not just good.
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post #13 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Professionals, and the companies that use this products are not going to wait 4 years. The upgrade costs are of no account. People who like to think they are professional, because they do some work on the side, may wait.

Not true. I work for a newspaper company that owns three dailies. I can guarantee that we will not upgrade. Most of the company is still using CS1.
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post #14 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neruda View Post

I'm also looking forward to seeing Photoshop benchmarks for the new OctoMacs

Quite honestly I don't see much difference between my iMac running CS2 and my Mac Pro running CS3. At least not in real world applications such as resizing or rotating a 1 gig file. I seriously doubt that 8 cores will offer substantial improvements over the current state of the art. There is apparently some issue with PS cache and cpu/memory usage that limits Photoshop's ability to leverage the hardware resources.

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post #15 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by domerdel View Post

what I really despise is the fact they called it a launch last month. The product doesn't launch in 2 weeks.

Sadly, this marketing ploy worked and got a lot of people amped.

Agreed, although I don't like this tactic mainly for the prospect of disappointment.

While I'm sure Adobe won't disappoint, AppleTV certainly did, after an early announcement and then several delays followed by a pretty unfunctional product. I hope iPhone doesn't turn out to be the same thing...
post #16 of 28
Personally I am not upgrading this year. Money is tight right now and I am still very happy with CS2 so I think I may wait for CS4 before doing anything.
post #17 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by fahlman View Post

Not true. I work for a newspaper company that owns three dailies. I can guarantee that we will not upgrade. Most of the company is still using CS1.

Absolutely. I know a number of full time digital artists who are thoroughly happy with Quark 4.
I work with a number of DTP professionals who work with G4s and the CS1 applications, as do I.
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post #18 of 28
"how many people think OSX is better than Windows..."

Huh? Let me ask another question. Which would you rather have, a Christmas bonus or a kick in the head?

Both questions have the same answer.
post #19 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by fahlman View Post

Not true. I work for a newspaper company that owns three dailies. I can guarantee that we will not upgrade. Most of the company is still using CS1.

I'm refering to companies that use these programs for competitive purposes, such as ad agencies, studios, commercial, advertising, and fashion photographers, commercial photo labs, printing plants, etc.

Newspapers don't have cutting edge needs.
post #20 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

Absolutely. I know a number of full time digital artists who are thoroughly happy with Quark 4.
I work with a number of DTP professionals who work with G4s and the CS1 applications, as do I.

I don't know any digital artists who use Quark. Why would they use that?

Considering that anyone who would still be using Quark 4 for anything also is using OS 9 or Classic to do so is pretty strange at this time. Quark doesn't work too well in Classic due to driver issues, among other things.
post #21 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I don't know any digital artists who use Quark. Why would they use that?Considering that anyone who would still be using Quark 4 for anything also is using OS 9 or Classic to do so is pretty strange at this time.

I agree with you on the Quark 4 comment, that is complete insanity.

I have to say, for most everyday desktop publishing jobs, InDesign is superior in a lot of ways, however, some old timers are very resistant to change and they have closed systems that are built on Quark for books, multiple languages and database driven publishing. For those situations there is no compelling reason to change.

But I'm certainly not defending Quark, they scewed up royally when we all wanted an OS X version. They dragged their feet in delivering version 6. The rest is history.

If you just need a layout program, a simple container for Ilustrator and EPS Photoshop files, and typography, either program is adequate, however when the line blurs between design and production, then InDesign becomes a much better choice, especially with the integration of layerd PSD - very sweet.

But InDesign needs a lot of work. I could go on and on about the bugs in that program, but as of right now it is the best we have.

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post #22 of 28
I can tell you I was one of the 73 and i use both pc & mac. I will be upgrading both from cs2-cs3.
post #23 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I don't know any digital artists who use Quark. Why would they use that?

Considering that anyone who would still be using Quark 4 for anything also is using OS 9 or Classic to do so is pretty strange at this time. Quark doesn't work too well in Classic due to driver issues, among other things.

My apologies, I meant Quark 6.

I'm a former Pagemaker vet who moved to InDesign, so I messed up the versioning. IIRC Q6 was the first version to support Mac OS X and had a couple of small point updates in 2004/2005.
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post #24 of 28
Yeah...asking attendees at a Photoshop conference if they plan on upgrading to CS3 is pretty much a self-fulfilling prophecy sort of thing. Not only are they obviously rabid faithful, they obviously have the necessary spare cash to afford the upgrade. Those conferences (and the air fare) aren't cheap.

Personally, I'd love to upgrade, but I'm finding the cost to go from CS1 to Design Premium a bit steep to justify at this time. Especially since I don't really see any real "can't live without" feature to justify the outlay.
post #25 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

My apologies, I meant Quark 6.

I'm a former Pagemaker vet who moved to InDesign, so I messed up the versioning. IIRC Q6 was the first version to support Mac OS X and had a couple of small point updates in 2004/2005.

Quark 6 was the first OS X version, and by far, the worst one, with many bugs, and few OS X specific features, basically an OS X version if the ill conceived version 5, which was universially disliked for good reason. Quark was pushing web publishing with that one.

Artists still would not use Quark. It isn't meant for them, and has no artist specific features. Very limited and awkward, to say the least.
post #26 of 28
I got a sneak peek at CS3 and all I can say is that the knifing of Golive for the very left-brain, "PC-esque" Dreamweaver is a disaster. DW is just not intuitive from it's lack of easy to use grid, its less than apparent integration with the other Adobe apps is a rush job at best. Golive has a learning curve but it had a Mac minded drag and drop interface that Dreamweaver is sadly lacking. I doubt writing Adobe would bring Golive back, big companies don't care when there are no other choices are available.
post #27 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by kerryb View Post

I got a sneak peek at CS3 and all I can say is that the knifing of Golive for the very left-brain, "PC-esque" Dreamweaver is a disaster. DW is just not intuitive from it's lack of easy to use grid, its less than apparent integration with the other Adobe apps is a rush job at best. Golive has a learning curve but it had a Mac minded drag and drop interface that Dreamweaver is sadly lacking. I doubt writing Adobe would bring Golive back, big companies don't care when there are no other choices are available.

It's funny you should say that.

Dreamweaver has always been considered to be a much better app than GoLive. It was always though of as the weakest of the CS Suite.
post #28 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by kerryb View Post

I got a sneak peek at CS3 and all I can say is that the knifing of Golive for the very left-brain, "PC-esque" Dreamweaver is a disaster. DW is just not intuitive from it's lack of easy to use grid, its less than apparent integration with the other Adobe apps is a rush job at best. Golive has a learning curve but it had a Mac minded drag and drop interface that Dreamweaver is sadly lacking. I doubt writing Adobe would bring Golive back, big companies don't care when there are no other choices are available.

GoLive is not dead, only resting.
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