"Those who promote evolutionism (the irrational belief in biogenesis by evolution as fact)(also known as evolutionists) try to confuse natural selection with evolution, saying that natural selection is the engine of change which gave rise to species. This is demonstrably false.
You perhaps remember the example of the peppered moths in England during the early part of the industrial revolution. When the soot from the mills turned the trees black, the peppered moths, normally white, were now visible to birds and were eaten. A variant of the peppered moths, with dark coloration, blended in and was left to grow. So, most moths were now the dark variety. When the air was cleaned, and the soot was washed away by rain, the dark moths showed up and were eaten, allowing the species to revert to the white variant. This is often given as an example of evolution, and it IS an excellent example of natural selection. If evolution is only natural selection, then the common conception of evolutionary biogenesis is mistaken, and scientists should be doing their best to clear it up.
However, they continue to meddle in religion and philosophy where they have no business.
The moths changed only in response to a temporary change in the environment, and only changed because the variants, already existing, were released from selection pressure. When the environment changed back, the original moth population reestablished itself with the variants in the minority. There was no permanent change, and the change was within the constraints imposed by the environment.
To return to probability--
One can design any experiment to fail. I can see how probability would make no sense if each occurrence had infinite possibilites, but we can constrain the experiment so there are very limited possibilities. Looking at Virginia Whitetail deer for a moment, a generation is about three years. These deer have made no noticeable change since they were first described in the 1700's. So we might conclude that a significant change occurs in evolving species only once in about 100 generations or more. Of course, some species are known to remain the same for much longer--sharks and cockroaches, for example. Virginia whitetails are subject to tremendous selection pressure from predators and hunting, and yet they remain the same.
So each major event of evolution, which results in a major adaptation of the creature, is subject to the pressure of natural selection (before man was on the scene, anyway, as they believe.) Predators cull the weak and sick and poorly adapted. Poorly adapted predators cannot find prey. Any change in a creature that did not convey a benefit would result in its selection by nature, and its genes would not be passed on.
But we are ignoring that immense difficulty with evolutionary change for the moment, and are simply looking at the possibility that 1000 major changes could happen.
If evolution, in its infinite variety of choices, brings a new creature to birth, it is subjected to the pressure of natural selection. Any creature that does not fit the current environment is ruthlessly exterminated. THIS is what allows the process to be tested by probability. In order to survive, the creature must either stay the same (the usual strategy) or change within the extremely narrow constraints placed on it by natural selection in the current environment.
We can design a simple experiment to determine the probability of 1000 major changes (FAR too few for evolution to have happened) occurring in the lifetime of the universe, assuming that these changes happen once in each 100 generations (FAR more often than warranted by the evidence). This will follow the line of a single organism evolving into a higher organism requiring 1000 changes. Only the direct descendants of that original organism which are directly in the line to the higher organism are considered to have evolved for this experiment. A basic textbook will show that the answer is (1/100)to the power of 1000. This number is unimaginably small.[(1/2)to the power of 1000 is 1/(10 to the power of 300). This number is far smaller.]
So--in order to have a 1-1 chance of one creature having been formed by a line of evolution, it would require (100 to the power of 1000) generations, or 10 followed by 1001 zeroes.
Now we are only considering those creatures in the direct line of this evolution, to a specific descendant. Assume again that each creature in this line reproduced after living for one second. There would only be 157,680,000,000,000,000 (1.6x10^17) reproductions in five billion years. Roughly 10^983(1 followed by 983 zeros) times that many reproductions would be needed for our hypothetical one original organism to have an even chance of evolving into anything requiring 1000 changes--not even considering the problem of how it got here in the first place. Five hundred thousand billion years is not enough time for life to have evolved.
Even more problems for evolution: There are many more changes than 1000 needed for pre-cellular life to become human,changes happen less often than once in a hundred generations, and if anything at all has a generation only one second long it is difficult to imagine."http://www.rae.org/eddiejoe.html