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PiperJaffray weighs in on iPod sales, new iMacs, other rumors

post #1 of 27
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In a pair of research notes released Wednesday, analysts for investment banking firm Piper Jaffray offered an update on Apple's June quarter iPod shipments while also commenting on expectations for next-generation iMacs, iPhone availability, and the prospect of an Apple navigation system.

June iPod sales tracking around 9.5 - 10.0 million

"Our analysis of iPod unit data from NPD for the month of May leads us to a preliminary iPod approximation of between 9.5 million and 10.0 million units for the June 2007 quarter," analyst Gene Munster wrote in the first of two notes.

Munster has been modeling the Cupertino-based company to sell approximately 10.5 million of the digital media players during the quarter, slightly above Wall Street consensus estimates of 9.8 million.

"The 9.5 million -10.0 million unit approximation is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of two months of data," he explained. "When the third month of data is released, our analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure than what our analysis suggests based on the second month of data, so we believe investors should supplement this data point with other information."

New iMacs

Meanwhile, Munster in a second report echoed several pieces of original AppleInsider content published over past week, including predictions for Apple's next-generation iMacs and AT&T's retail plans for next week's iPhone launch.

"As we anticipated, the redesigned iMacs were not announced at last week's WWDC keynote," the analyst wrote. "However, we continue to expect iMacs with a new form factor by September."

Munster, referencing the MacRumors buyers guide, added that it has been nearly 300 days since Apple has had anything to say about its top-selling desktop system, well beyond the average 168 days between previous upgrade cycles.

iPhone Availability

Commenting on next week's iPhone launch, the Piper Jaffray analyst advised clients that AT&T stores will close temporarily around 4:00 p.m. on the 29th to prepare for the 6:00 p.m. launch, then re-open at 6:00 p.m.

"The company is anticipating long lines and large crowds, and will use the two hours to prepare accordingly," he wrote. "It is important to note that by the end of 2007 we expect iPhone availability to expand to about 30 percent of AT&T's 8,000 franchised outlets."

iPhone in Europe

At the same time, however, Munster shed some doubt on Apple's ability to make good on its commitment to roll-out the handset in Europe later this year, explaining that the launch "may be delayed."

"European wireless carriers are citing strict terms of the partnership with Apple," he explained. "To a certain degree, this sheds an interesting light on the AT&T pact, implying that it is favorable towards Apple."

The analyst speculated that Apple's agreement with AT&T may involve handset subsidies and a generous revenue sharing plan.

Apple Navigation System

Finally, Munster gave some attention to recent rumblings of an Apple-designed in-car navigation system, which were first published by an overseas gadget publication.

"While this seems far-fetched, the device could simply be an iPhone equipped with GPS, which is a feature we expect in 2009," he told clients. "Additionally, in recent comments [Apple chief executive] Steve Jobs has placed particular emphasis on the iPhone's Google Maps features."

Munster maintains an "Outperform" rating on shares of Apple with a $160 price target.
post #2 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

I
"While this seems far-fetched, the device could simply be an iPhone equipped with GPS, which is a feature we expect in 2009,"

Or just an Apple branded dock which would give the iPhone GPS functionality..

Battery-life is the reason there is no GPS on iPhone.. iPhone would constantly have to be on analyzing your location, a major drain on the battery. That's also why most GPS systems in cars are plugged into a charger.. Apple could easily make such a dock and the iPhone could become a GPS device as well. I see this happening rather quickly
post #3 of 27
No GPS for a computer/phone of this caliber is ridiculous.

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post #4 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by solsun View Post

Battery-life is the reason there is no GPS on iPhone.. iPhone would constantly have to be on analyzing your location, a major drain on the battery.

I'm not so sure. There a dozens of handheld GPS devices that seem to have very good battery life. Receiving radio signals does not consume very much energy, it is the transmitting that requires more power.

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post #5 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

No GPS for a computer/phone of this caliber is ridiculous.

What level of GPS would you want?

If you want full GPS with maps the iPhone would cost much more than it does now. Take a Garmin Nuvi 650, they go for $450+ on the street. Add bluetooth, Nuvi 660, and they're over $650.

If you want the same GPS that's in a cell phone that's a lot less expensive but it's not much good for anything other than e911 service. You really need the maps.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love a iPhone that had the same navagation ability the Nuvi 660 or 680 has. That would rock.
post #6 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timon View Post

If you want the same GPS that's in a cell phone that's a lot less expensive but it's not much good for anything other than e911 service. You really need the maps


What would be cool is if iPhone had a GPS chip that could at least tell Google maps where you were. Coincidentally I've already hacked together just such a program using Google maps and Iridium.

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post #7 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

What would be cool is if iPhone had a GPS chip that could at least tell Google maps where you were. Coincidentally I've already hacked together just such a program using Google maps and Iridium.

Why not just use cell tower triangulation for accurate urban GPS? Seems like a cheap, uber-simple way to put a pin on a google map for cites with many towers, yeah?
post #8 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

I'm not so sure. There a dozens of handheld GPS devices that seem to have very good battery life.


Yeah, and how thick are those handhelds and what else do they do again?

GPS would be a serious drain on iPhone in it's current form factor.
post #9 of 27
interesting new on maps and iridium. So, when i am on my catamaran sailing around the world, i could have GPS on the iridium? that would be a big benefit for an emergency, where one could tell rescue exactly where we are. is this software available to the public?


Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

What would be cool is if iPhone had a GPS chip that could at least tell Google maps where you were. Coincidentally I've already hacked together just such a program using Google maps and Iridium.
post #10 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by solsun View Post

Yeah, and how thick are those handhelds and what else do they do again?

GPS would be a serious drain on iPhone in it's current form factor.

The Nokia N95 has built-in GPS - and downloads Maps over Wap or WiFi
- but it caches downloaded maps on the phone
- the main problem is the length of time it takes to get a GPS location - much longer than TomToms, for example
post #11 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by solsun View Post

Yeah, and how thick are those handhelds and what else do they do again?
GPS would be a serious drain on iPhone in it's current form factor.

It would likely need an off switch?

Quote:
Originally Posted by shagghie View Post

Why not just use cell tower triangulation for accurate urban GPS? Seems like a cheap, uber-simple way to put a pin on a google map for cites with many towers, yeah?

Not as accurate but would work. There are legal/privacy issues with obtaining the data from the cell providers. Even real GPS has an error factor and uses ground based correction when available.

Quote:
Originally Posted by maxmann View Post

interesting new on maps and iridium. So, when i am on my catamaran sailing around the world, i could have GPS on the iridium? that would be a big benefit for an emergency, where one could tell rescue exactly where we are. is this software available to the public?

There are many commercial products that do this for fleet tracking.

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post #12 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by solsun View Post

Battery-life is the reason there is no GPS on iPhone.. iPhone would constantly have to be on analyzing your location, a major drain on the battery. That's also why most GPS systems in cars are plugged into a charger.. Apple could easily make such a dock and the iPhone could become a GPS device as well. I see this happening rather quickly

GPS is very low power. I have a Garmin eTrex that can run for 20+ hours with a Monochrome LCD screen on 2 rechargeable AA batteries. I have other GPS devices without screens that exceed this...
post #13 of 27
if you're sailing around the world i would hope you're not relying on a phone as your source of navigation.
if you need to tell google maps where you are on dry land, check out a good old fashioned street sign or two.

i would love to have gps on my iPhone, but i'm fairly certain i'll have to wait until the second iPhone i buy.
btw, WHO is buying an iPod right now? must be the shuffles and nanos that are selling.
post #14 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

if you need to tell google maps where you are on dry land, check out a good old fashioned street sign or two.

You sort of need constant coordinates to do anything useful like a turn by turn (which BTW is in violation of the terms of use for Google Maps API.) I certainly couldn't type in street intersections by hand every couple seconds.

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post #15 of 27
I reckon it'll be January before it comes to Europe not October. I've always had that hunch when the iPhone was announced.
post #16 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by eAi View Post

I have a Garmin eTrex that can run for 20+ hours with a Monochrome LCD screen on 2 rechargeable AA batteries. I have other GPS devices without screens that exceed this...


My point exactly, iPhone is not monochrome. It is s full 3.5" color touch screen. And iPhone's battery space is a lot thinner and smaller than two AA batteries could fit in.. Plus it's running OSX and a slew of other multimedia functions.. Can't even compare iPhone to those handhelds.. You need to consider the size of the screen, the additional functionality of the device and the thickness of the battery used.

To keep that size display backlit and constantly searching for location is a serious drain issue.
post #17 of 27
Hey, they had to leave something for rev 2.0 iPhone. Come to think of it a 720p HD video camera and 16GB of memory might be nice too.

As with the intro of any hot new phone, and let's face it, the iPhone is a phone, if not a Superphone. It will start out high and then come down with incentives once the initial hype dies down.

Apple ][ Forever
post #18 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by solsun View Post

To keep that size display backlit and constantly searching for location is a serious drain issue.

Size: 4.2"H x 2.2"W x 1.2"D. Weight 5.6oz including two AA alkaline batteries, the Venture Cx will help you travel light while providing up to 32 hours of use.

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post #19 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

Size: 4.2"H x 2.2"W x 1.2"D. Weight 5.6oz including two AA alkaline batteries, the Venture Cx will help you travel light while providing up to 32 hours of use.

Are missing my point entirely? Look at the size of that device compared to iPhone... It's about 3x as thick. There is no way you could get two AA batteries in iPhone. The iPhone battery is a fraction of thickness of AA batteries.

I mean doubling or tripling the thickness of iPhone would certainly make room for a heftier battery, but then you lose the design appeal that Apple is famous for.
post #20 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by solsun View Post

I mean doubling or tripling the thickness of iPhone would certainly make room for a heftier battery, but then you lose the design appeal that Apple is famous for.

GPS power requirements are miniscule. Its not that I don't appreciate any additional technical insight into the iPhone's capabilities, but I just don't agree that the the inclusion of GPS is impossible. Now if we were discussing the cost of components such as the chip, antenna, etc, then that certainly would be a consideration worth mentioning. They aren't including a Swiss Army knife either.

You might enjoy this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xXNoB3t8vM

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post #21 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by shagghie View Post

Why not just use cell tower triangulation for accurate urban GPS? Seems like a cheap, uber-simple way to put a pin on a google map for cites with many towers, yeah?

Dangit! Why do people keep asking this?? You obviously live in a big city or in an area with lots of cell towers. The pointof GPS is that it works ANYWHERE on the planet - even over the oceans. Suppose I go hiking in the country and want to know where I am? I'd be lucky to get ONE cell tower in many areas - let alone the 3+ to get ANY triangulation.

Think about the 95% of the country's area where YOU don't live.
post #22 of 27
iMacs as late as september!!......I hope not!!!!

Last rumor on here said shortly after WWDC so I hope that is correct and not in 3 months like this says!


I want one now!!!! ...........

....With 4gb RAM, 30" LD DIsplay In Brushed Metal to sit perfectly next to a 30"cinema display for dual screen use with support for a third monitor, with two hard drives that can be put in a RAID configuration running at 7,200rpm, and "Super Drive Pro" which will be the next step up from the normal super drive with a Blu-Ray burner, with a 6mega pixel iSight camera, 5 USB ports, 2 firewire-400 and 2 firewire-800 ports all for under £2000........please apple??

I WISH!!!!.....I should really get a mac pro shouldn't I!!!!!!

On another note i soooooooooooooooooooooooo wish the iPhone was being released over here(UK) sooner! Even without the phone capabilities it would still be a cool device!!!!!
post #23 of 27
Apple is in your pocket (iPod & iPhone)
Apple is in your bedroom (Mac)
Apple is in your living room (AppleTV)

what next?

Apple is in your car (Dashboard)
post #24 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

Apple is in your pocket (iPod & iPhone)
Apple is in your bedroom (Mac)
Apple is in your living room (AppleTV)

what next?

Apple is in your car (Dashboard)

Apparantly so. There was a report earlier this week in Germany regarding Apple looking into car navigation system for Mercedes.

The idea isn't far featched. Apple has already learn to port OSX to various processors, reduce the OS size for optimal size for the intended device and has an in with Google Maps. They only need to stick GPS into an iPhone and they'd have a great in-dash system.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #25 of 27
Mac's OS isn't called Mac OS any more for a reason, kids! It's called OS X!!! Because it ain't just for the Mac any more!!!

Be prepared to see it in a number of devices near you in the next five years!

Yes, I know, I know... we already have a couple of those devices already here, or just around the corner... imagine what awaits us in 08???
post #26 of 27
all hypes will be gone after 6/29. it will be very excited to see how a desktop computer company gets into communication market. yes, apple's ipod is successful, but it is not convinceable that iphone will be another ipod-success. music player market is not a mature market, rather relatively a new market, therefore apple can quickly establish its leadership. yes, apple can bring its UI to iphone and its effort is aplaudable, but if cell phone market were a weak and immature market as portable music player is, iphone would be a true hit, not a hype. so it is foreseeable that it might take years for apple to understand: it has to climb a steep hill, and, there would be lots of hard lessons to learn in this market sector before things get better.
post #27 of 27
Should be interesting to see how the stock price reacts once the initial reports from early adopters begin to pour in.
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