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Steve Jobs has bet the farm on iPhone

post #1 of 45
Thread Starter 
Well, hard to comprehend, but yup, I think Mr. Jobs has bet the Apple farm on iPhone. If they are successful, Apple can become a 50 billion/year company in 4 or 5 years with the stock going up 4 to 10 times or it'll be a slow slog trying to make iPhone successful with the stock price cut in half.

Why? I think he thinks - and I'm apt to agree - that the next battlefield is the handheld computer. The original one was the mainframe. IBM won. The next one was desktop computing (where laptops are a subcategory). Wintel won. The one coming is the handheld computer. This handheld computer will in fact replace many of the desktops and laptops today through Palm Foleo type devices providing big keyboard & mice with the handheld containing the data and maybe even powering the screen and the providing the horsepower.

Intel's Silverthorne is coming in 2008, an x86 processor for handhelds, and they consider it the most important Intel processor release since the Pentium. It will provide enough horsepower for 95% of the market needs in 3 years or so when it is on 32 nm.

I'm glad Apple's come prepared, because the onslaught from competitors is going to be huge. They to refine the iPhone and OS X on a pretty quick basis, keep up the user experience from buying to content to communications, and do it quick.

It's a big bet. (My money is itching too, but I'm still weighing the odds).
post #2 of 45
Those are some bold assertions and predictions. And you're not one who makes exaggerated statements (at least since I've frequented AI).

You've still left me hanging, though. Do you think it's a winner or not?
post #3 of 45
Apple needs to get moving on updating some of their technology as well so that they can insert it where necessary.

http://www.apple.com/macosx/features/inkwell/

Is technology that I want to see improve. I think Apple should certainly be looking at Tablet Macs for vertical markets. I don't think Tablets will ever be mainstream but they have their place and pen based writing is important.

http://www.apple.com/macosx/features/speech/

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple

You dont have to be a scientist to know that the computer of the future will talk, listen and understand. That computer of the future is the Apple Macintosh of today. Apples Speech Recognition and Speech Synthesis Technologies now give speech-savvy applications the power to carry out your voice commands and even speak back to you in plain English.

That's not enough. Comand and Control isn't going to change a persons life. You need Speech to Text that works well without a lot of training. The iPhone keyboard is nice but I'd love to have a nice built in microphone and the ability to just dictate in small messages.

Support the hardware through Mac OS X and Mac OS X Server. I'm be flabbergasted if Leopard's mail server doesn't support Push Email to the iPhone. That feature alone would result in hundreds if not thousands of new licenses sold.

I've posited that Apple may be in a position to become a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MNVO). AT&T is nice but if we're talking about the iPhone becoming truly a "3rd leg" then eventually Apple is going to want to handle all branding and consumer support issues directly.

Stop kowtowing to Microsoft. I realize it was necessary in the recent past but it's time to do for document interoperability what moving to web standards has done for the Net. Office has its place for many but there needs to be a big brother to iWork that is capable and extensible for business. Base it around Open Document format or whatever to ensure that there is a viable market for multiple vendors and thus I won't have to worry about whether the Microsoft tax has been paid to properly view a document. Worst case scenario Microsoft kills Office Mac and I just run it in Fusion/Parallels anyways. No biggie ..Mac users have paid out the nose for Office Mac over the years anyways.

Deliver top notch Developer tools which support the iPhone and other mobile products. I don't care if you have to charge for it deliver something that makes creating wonderful mobile apps a rewarding experience.

Bring Unified Messaging to OS X. The components are improving. iChat with collaboration, Mail/Calendar Server, add a bit of improved Telephony features tie in the iPhone and other products. My data should be with me everywhere and communicating should be effortless.

If Stevie boy can pull this off he may go down as THE GUY in computer history. People will name their children after him.
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post #4 of 45
I'll put this in bold to convey how strongly believe it:
Touch screen is the future. Weather it be phones, tablets or touch screen desktop keyboards. The future I envision is a one without laptops/notebooks or mice,. When on the go you'll either have an iPhone-type device/phone or a multi-touch 10-15 inch tablet. Physical keyboard's will die out, so will mice, and I say good riddance to them. Software is the real, real future.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #5 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


Physical keyboard's will die out, . . .


I doubt it. I'm a writer and want the feel of a real keyboard. It is comfortable and I know where I am by touching it. A touch screen layout that simulates a keyboard does not have the feedback I want and need to type confidently.

post #6 of 45
Whatever. Mice and keyboards dying? Not in my lifetime.

There are things that cannot be done with fat fingers. Would you really want to work all day in photoshop on a touchscreen? How many times a day would you have to clean off the screen in order to see what you're doing?

For phones and iPods, sure.. workstations will remain with keyboards and mice forever or at least until mind-controlled mice and keyboard replacements come.

post #7 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCARECROW

..workstations will remain with keyboards and mice forever

That's a bold statement.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #8 of 45
The only way touch screens can work from an egonomic standpoint is from a horizontal plan.

So those people expecting to use touch screens like some super kiosk are sadly mistaken. If you look at the proper form for mousing and keyboarding it is with arms distended down your side...elbows bent at roughly a %90 angle with wrists in a comfortable position above the mouse/kb

You simply "must" emulate this form as much as possible. Vertical touch screens won't work as lifting your arm continously will put tremendous strain on your shoulders and joints.

Multi Touch will have its place but it will have to be in conjuction with other input method and it will have to be horizontal in design.
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post #9 of 45
I agree with the assertions.

This is that next giant worldwide market.
The handheld computer.
It's coming quite fast.
And Jobs' smartest long term bet will require sacrifices from within his own product line.

...as well as one very expansive accessory...
post #10 of 45
Think big, and relatively low tech...
post #11 of 45
I wish I could be arsed to find the patents but Apple has a nice little portfolio covering physical overlays for Touch screen devices (Keyboard, Mixer, Gaming Controls). Touch screen across the board wouldn't be so bad if they found an innovative and tidy approach to keep physical input for some of the old school users

(That is until some kind of screen feedback technology is integrated, transition complete)
5-8" MultiTouch Mini Tablet would go down a treat if you're reading!
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5-8" MultiTouch Mini Tablet would go down a treat if you're reading!
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post #12 of 45
Not totally sure about this Murch, but I believe one of the conditions of the Apple/MS deal was that Apple would stay away from developing voice recognition software. Bill thought it was the future.
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post #13 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by blue2kdave View Post

Not totally sure about this Murch, but I believe one of the conditions of the Apple/MS deal was that Apple would stay away from developing voice recognition software. Bill thought it was the future.

I sure hope there's a sunset on that deal. Vista's speech recognition is fledgling but at leasts it's there to be further developed. When David Pogue says he writes his books with Dragon NaturallySpeaking running on a Mac I think that's a pretty big testament to the efficacy of SR in computing.

The goal for me is to not have to touch the computer. That being said I do welcome the evolution to touch screen technology because in some areas it's going to be more intuitive than mousing.

Here's a link about how Nuances phone softwware can beat the fastest "texter"

http://www.nuance.com/news/amazingrace/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L4Jk6GDud0

I believe a portable communications device needs to adapt to many different ways of use and input modality. The iPhone was smart to eschew a physical keyboard and go with a larger screen IMO.

Software UI will make formely hard coded functionality much more intuitive and easy.
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post #14 of 45
Thread Starter 
I think the iPhone will meet its one and only sales projection of 10 million units by end of 2008, especially if they sell $299 and $399 versions, and continue to upgrade the radio, the storage and the software. But that isn't going to make Apple a 50 billion $ company, and I'm talking about 2010+.

I couldn't quite figure out why Jobs was hyping it this much. It's not just a usable and fun to use phone to him, but it seems like its the way forward to the next 30 years, and with all the iPhone news, Otellini's comments on Silverthorne, the Palm Foleo, Jobs/Gates' talk about the "Cloud" at Mossberg's conference, and finally the seeming fact that no one is excited about personal computers anymore, it finally dawned on me that, yup, the handheld computer is the way forward (for Apple).

I don't know about you guys, but personal computers have more computing power then 95% of the market's needs. Most especially the consumer market. The usage model for today's users is Internet stuff, and we have ample horsepower for that. Even gamers seem satiated. The hardware vendors seem desperate for MS to make Windows slower so that there is a good reason to upgrade! I mean, were most people really excited to see the Mac Pro go from a 2-socket 4-core 2.66 GHz machine to a 2-socket 8-core 3 GHz machine? Were people excited about the MacBook upgrades? Really, if the MacBook goes from 2 GHz to 2.4 GHz, I don't think it'll make people very excited anymore. It seems that a 2 GHz Core 2 Duo will serve the needs of 95% of the users out there. That's just not good news to PC makers.

The path does seem to be the "Cloud".

The cloud is a wireless internet infrastructure. It really needs to be 100 mbit/s (probably 1000 mbit/s) before it becomes the "Cloud", but once that happens, I think it finally spells a sea change in the market. The telcos will be victorious over cable companies (unless the cable companies go wireless) in the long war between the two for providing Internet access. Why? You just buy a TV with a wireless built-in and you can view any kind of content you want.

So, why do I think a handheld computer will replace a personal computer? Primarily because of the problems with syncing. It's far easier, if you just had one device. All assuming that we reject putting our data on some server somewhere. So, if there is choice between the two, the Cloud will dictate that it'll be your hand held one because all of your vital computing stuff can then be with you at all times.

The stars are aligned. Usage models for computing isn't compute-bound anymore, its network-bound. It's amazing, but the software has to catch up to today's hardware. It never will (software design cycles are longer than hardware ones), so the hardware guys will slow down and concentrate elsewhere. The elsewhere is in the ultra-mobile space.

Today's cell phones contain hardware about equivalent to a laptop circa 2000, maybe 2001. In 3 or 4 years, they will be as powerful as today's laptops with ~1.5 GHz dual cores. In 3 or 4 years, I don't think I'd be needing a more powerful personal computer than what I could get today. I don't think I'd need a 24+ inch monitor either. (Where does a personal computer go from today? Other than replacements and incremental penetration into the population?)

So, all I'd do is dock the hand held computer to a 24 inch monitor with keyboard and mouse or a laptop cradle with 15" monitor and keyboard & trackpad, and away I go. (There could be the wireless dock option too). Perhaps the caveat is the need for terabytes of storage presuming I have a video library, but that could come with the TV or your home data server.

So, this is where the iPhone (and AppleTV) comes in. In 2010, when the iPhone has a few 1 GHz processors and 64 GB of flash (or 250 GB of disk if Apple intends to make a disk based one) operating over 50+ Mbit/s WiMAX, will you really need to have a separate computer?

If the answer is no, then you have to ask the same question in the business world full of cubicle farms. If you have your work computer/cell phone with you 24/7, I'm sure the managers won't mind. Heck, they may even be doing something Green by letting you telecommute more often as long as you are still productive, wherever you may be. If that answer is no, than oh boy.

The cell phone market is one where 90+% penetration into the population is possible, with a big fraction having more than one. PC penetration? I'm not sure if it has broken 50%, what is it, 40%?

This is where iPhone is going, and I think Jobs wants to ship 50+ maybe 100+ million units a year eventually.

A note about AppleTV. It's an "iPod" with a TV as screen. Apple knows that the living room is a big market, but I don't think they quite know how to do it yet, hence Jobs states that AppleTV is a hobby. I'm beginning to think that Apple indeed has to make an actual "Apple TV" that is in essence a immobile iPhone - an OS X computer TV. One with a wireless capabilities. This is assuming they can convince the content makers to go electrons only. I presume AT&T would be a willing partner.
post #15 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

I'll put this in bold to convey how strongly believe it:
Touch screen is the future. Weather it be phones, tablets or touch screen desktop keyboards. The future I envision is a one without laptops/notebooks or mice,. When on the go you'll either have an iPhone-type device/phone or a multi-touch 10-15 inch tablet. Physical keyboard's will die out, so will mice, and I say good riddance to them. Software is the real, real future.

Remember, guys, it is not that far off that computers will have sufficient computing complexity and power to simulate the human brain... by 2025 or 2045 (if I recall correctly). Once you can speak and gesture to your digital assistant simulacrum and it correctly interprets your wishes, we will truly have entered the Cyborg Age.

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post #16 of 45
It's just too far ahead to guess what will be the next-next big thing - we barely have the visibility to really know what will be big in a decade.

Right now the desktop computer is peaking, and mobility is becoming more important as technology (mind you, very recent technology) is allowing us to disconnect from walls and still communicate without limitation. It took desktops almost 20 years to reach their peak and and develop the technology necessary with that to allow us to see the next logical step in usability is and how to progress towards it.

If hand held computing is the next big thing (and I would tend to agree), whatever lessons we learn and technologies we invent in the coming era will point us towards the next big thing after that.

In other words, none of us really have any idea what the world will look like after hand helds have peaked, or even what hand helds will look like once they've peaked! Who in 1984 could have, in any semblance of detail, imagined what the technology landscape looks like in 2007 and guessed hand held convergence would be the big thing? At best they could make a rough, pie-in-the-sky guesstimate, and even then it probably would have been full of silly details and flaws representative of that era's thinking.

Personally, I'll just stick to being excited about where this new push towards mobility is going.
post #17 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by THT View Post

I think the iPhone will meet its one and only sales projection of 10 million units by end of 2008, especially if they sell $299 and $399 versions, and continue to upgrade the radio, the storage and the software. But that isn't going to make Apple a 50 billion $ company, and I'm talking about 2010+.

I couldn't quite figure out why Jobs was hyping it this much. It's not just a usable and fun to use phone to him, but it seems like its the way forward to the next 30 years, and with all the iPhone news, Otellini's comments on Silverthorne, the Palm Foleo, Jobs/Gates' talk about the "Cloud" at Mossberg's conference, and finally the seeming fact that no one is excited about personal computers anymore, it finally dawned on me that, yup, the handheld computer is the way forward (for Apple).

I don't know about you guys, but personal computers have more computing power then 95% of the market's needs. Most especially the consumer market. The usage model for today's users is Internet stuff, and we have ample horsepower for that. Even gamers seem satiated. The hardware vendors seem desperate for MS to make Windows slower so that there is a good reason to upgrade! I mean, were most people really excited to see the Mac Pro go from a 2-socket 4-core 2.66 GHz machine to a 2-socket 8-core 3 GHz machine? Were people excited about the MacBook upgrades? Really, if the MacBook goes from 2 GHz to 2.4 GHz, I don't think it'll make people very excited anymore. It seems that a 2 GHz Core 2 Duo will serve the needs of 95% of the users out there. That's just not good news to PC makers.

The path does seem to be the "Cloud".

The cloud is a wireless internet infrastructure. It really needs to be 100 mbit/s (probably 1000 mbit/s) before it becomes the "Cloud", but once that happens, I think it finally spells a sea change in the market. The telcos will be victorious over cable companies (unless the cable companies go wireless) in the long war between the two for providing Internet access. Why? You just buy a TV with a wireless built-in and you can view any kind of content you want.

So, why do I think a handheld computer will replace a personal computer? Primarily because of the problems with syncing. It's far easier, if you just had one device. All assuming that we reject putting our data on some server somewhere. So, if there is choice between the two, the Cloud will dictate that it'll be your hand held one because all of your vital computing stuff can then be with you at all times.

The stars are aligned. Usage models for computing isn't compute-bound anymore, its network-bound. It's amazing, but the software has to catch up to today's hardware. It never will (software design cycles are longer than hardware ones), so the hardware guys will slow down and concentrate elsewhere. The elsewhere is in the ultra-mobile space.

Today's cell phones contain hardware about equivalent to a laptop circa 2000, maybe 2001. In 3 or 4 years, they will be as powerful as today's laptops with ~1.5 GHz dual cores. In 3 or 4 years, I don't think I'd be needing a more powerful personal computer than what I could get today. I don't think I'd need a 24+ inch monitor either. (Where does a personal computer go from today? Other than replacements and incremental penetration into the population?)

So, all I'd do is dock the hand held computer to a 24 inch monitor with keyboard and mouse or a laptop cradle with 15" monitor and keyboard & trackpad, and away I go. (There could be the wireless dock option too). Perhaps the caveat is the need for terabytes of storage presuming I have a video library, but that could come with the TV or your home data server.

So, this is where the iPhone (and AppleTV) comes in. In 2010, when the iPhone has a few 1 GHz processors and 64 GB of flash (or 250 GB of disk if Apple intends to make a disk based one) operating over 50+ Mbit/s WiMAX, will you really need to have a separate computer?

If the answer is no, then you have to ask the same question in the business world full of cubicle farms. If you have your work computer/cell phone with you 24/7, I'm sure the managers won't mind. Heck, they may even be doing something Green by letting you telecommute more often as long as you are still productive, wherever you may be. If that answer is no, than oh boy.

The cell phone market is one where 90+% penetration into the population is possible, with a big fraction having more than one. PC penetration? I'm not sure if it has broken 50%, what is it, 40%?

This is where iPhone is going, and I think Jobs wants to ship 50+ maybe 100+ million units a year eventually.

A note about AppleTV. It's an "iPod" with a TV as screen. Apple knows that the living room is a big market, but I don't think they quite know how to do it yet, hence Jobs states that AppleTV is a hobby. I'm beginning to think that Apple indeed has to make an actual "Apple TV" that is in essence a immobile iPhone - an OS X computer TV. One with a wireless capabilities. This is assuming they can convince the content makers to go electrons only. I presume AT&T would be a willing partner.

Wow. Interesting vision of the future. Also I wholeheartedly agree that mobile computing, iPhone ect, and WIMAX go together like peas and carrots. I wonder how Apple plan to integrate this into their future plans as ATT sold their WIMAX spectrum to clearwire. Do you know if there are any special agreements between ATT and Clearwire for future cooperation?
post #18 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by THT View Post

Well, hard to comprehend, but yup, I think Mr. Jobs has bet the Apple farm on iPhone. If they are successful, Apple can become a 50 billion/year company in 4 or 5 years with the stock going up 4 to 10 times or it'll be a slow slog trying to make iPhone successful with the stock price cut in half.


You are 100% correct. Just look at Apple.com.

http://www.apple.com/

Never in the past 5-10 years has Apple removed the four panes below the main image and the "Hot News" bar. Now Apple.com is solely a showcase for iPhone!
post #19 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by THT View Post

The cell phone market is one where 90+% penetration into the population is possible, with a big fraction having more than one. PC penetration? I'm not sure if it has broken 50%, what is it, 40%?

It's above 50 percent in 8 countries and the PC penetration for each country may be slightly higher than this because the population figures are from 2006 or 2007 and the number of computers in-use is from 2005.

Population: Wikipedia
PCs: Computer Industry Almanach

"The U.S. accounts for over 25% of all PCs in-use compared to 4.6% of worldwide population."

United States: 230.4/302 = 76 percent
Canada: 23.71/31.6 = 75 percent
Australia: 14.62/19.8 = 74 percent
UK: 38.62/60 = 64 percent
Germany: 50.42/82 = 61 percent
Japan: 73.66/127 = 58 percent
South Korea: 28.38/49 = 57.9 percent
France: 32.40/64 = 50.6 percent
post #20 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Wow. Interesting vision of the future. Also I wholeheartedly agree that mobile computing, iPhone ect, and WIMAX go together like peas and carrots. I wonder how Apple plan to integrate this into their future plans as ATT sold their WIMAX spectrum to clearwire. Do you know if there are any special agreements between ATT and Clearwire for future cooperation?

Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster... I invested in T, AAPL and more recently CLWR with just this scenario in mind.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #21 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by hymie View Post

You are 100% correct. Just look at Apple.com.

http://www.apple.com/

Never in the past 5-10 years has Apple removed the four panes below the main image and the "Hot News" bar. Now Apple.com is solely a showcase for iPhone!

iPhone will truly become the 'computer for the rest of us', especially once prices drop and Apple has committed to their own Wi-Max network.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #22 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster... I invested in T, AAPL and more recently CLWR with just this scenario in mind.

I'm looking into clearwire this weekend.
post #23 of 45
[QUOTE=THT;1105041]I

So, all I'd do is dock the hand held computer to a 24 inch monitor with keyboard and mouse or a laptop cradle with 15" monitor and keyboard & trackpad, and away I go. (There could be the wireless dock option too). Perhaps the caveat is the need for terabytes of storage presuming I have a video library, but that could come with the TV or your home data server.

So, this is where the iPhone (and AppleTV) comes in. In 2010, when the iPhone has a few 1 GHz processors and 64 GB of flash (or 250 GB of disk if Apple intends to make a disk based one) operating over 50+ Mbit/s WiMAX, will you really need to have a separate computer?

If the answer is no, then you have to ask the same question in the business world full of cubicle farms. If you have your work computer/cell phone with you 24/7, I'm sure the managers won't mind. Heck, they may even be doing something Green by letting you telecommute more often as long as you are still productive, wherever you may be. If that answer is no, than oh boy.
/QUOTE]

I whole heartedly agree with you. I don't carry a laptop from home to work or vice versa anymore. I have a 4 GB USB drive and that is more than sufficient for what I need now. Although syncing is a minor problem, I would still like to avoid it. I'd love to have a hand-held computer that could do what my desktop is capable of. I could have a docking station (with a display and keyboard) in several areas of my home and at work. what a timesaver, space saver, and $ saver that would be. NO duplication.
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post #24 of 45
I have an iPhone, and all I can say is the nay-sayers had me paranoid at the last minute (about the speed of edge and stuff) but truthfully Mine is working just as good, if not better than the ones SJ had hooked up to wires in the first keynote. This thing is fast IMO, and.. Well actually quite a bit faster than I thought it would be. It has not been over hyped as I though it was before I bought it, but now that I'm using it and playing with it.. It's getting the hype it deserves.

I have not found a thing about it that is a negative yet.
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post #25 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlooker View Post


This thing is fast IMO, and.. Well actually quite a bit faster than I thought it would be. . . .

I have not found a thing about it that is a negative yet.


It may be running off WiFi in your area. The menu bar at top should show the WiFi icon if it is. I've been using an iPhone this afternoon and it is amazing. It's not mine, but belongs to my son. It does so much, and looks so good.

post #26 of 45
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlooker View Post

I have an iPhone, and all I can say is the nay-sayers had me paranoid at the last minute (about the speed of edge and stuff) but truthfully Mine is working just as good, if not better than the ones SJ had hooked up to wires in the first keynote. This thing is fast IMO, and.. Well actually quite a bit faster than I thought it would be. It has not been over hyped as I though it was before I bought it, but now that I'm using it and playing with it.. It's getting the hype it deserves.

Played with it for about half an hour today. I've got some significant barriers for purchasing it, and can't get it now, but maybe in 6 months.

After a half hour of playing with it, it was like when I was walking out of the theater after watching the first Matrix movie. A little bit of euphoria. It's a science fiction device come true. Websites were easily readable. Youtube was credible. Gmaps was cool. I did everything over EDGE. msnbc.com was easily readable with zooming and panning gestures. macsurfer.com was actually readable without any zooming!

iPod functionality is tremendous. Videos, photos and music were worth the price of the device itself. Phone calling seem crisp and clear.

The UI was fun to use.

Quote:
Originally Posted by onlooker View Post

I have not found a thing about it that is a negative yet.

Oh, there are always negative things.

1. It can get a little toasty.
2. It's restricted to its core functionality only. Ie, it's not a computer yet. It's just a high feature cell phone/iPod/internet communicator for now.
3. The calculator UI is poor in both art (it should be using the keyboard look-n-feel) and implementation (no scientific as far as I can see).
4. The keyboard landscape mode is only used in Safari. It should be as widely used as possible.
5. There needs to be a disk-based version with 80+ GB of memory.

The EDGE concerns are overblown though. Web-browsing on it seem perfectly fine.

The key is the "not a computer yet." With enough work and time, Apple can make this a real live personal capable of replacing my personal computer. That'll be a big day.
post #27 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by THT View Post

.........I don't know about you guys, but personal computers have more computing power then 95% of the market's needs. Most especially the consumer market. The usage model for today's users is Internet stuff, and we have ample horsepower for that. Even gamers seem satiated. The hardware vendors seem desperate for MS to make Windows slower so that there is a good reason to upgrade! I mean, were most people really excited to see the Mac Pro go from a 2-socket 4-core 2.66 GHz machine to a 2-socket 8-core 3 GHz machine? Were people excited about the MacBook upgrades? Really, if the MacBook goes from 2 GHz to 2.4 GHz, I don't think it'll make people very excited anymore. It seems that a 2 GHz Core 2 Duo will serve the needs of 95% of the users out there. That's just not good news to PC makers.........

Sorry for butchering out a section of your whole post THT, but It's not our fault Apple did a mere processor drop in update on the Mac-Pro. I could give a crap about those other products, but I'm a Mac Pro user, and that whole computer needed an update. They need to get with the program.
The lack of the equal speed in Graphics vs. a PC alone would have at least probably gotten me to buy one, but here I am waiting again because Apple tries to squeeze every cent from outdated technology, and never seems to release their Flag Ship (Mac-Pro) with the features people are expecting. PC's have things for 4 years before wee see it. Graphics is the.. well hell SLI is the perfect example of that, and not only that, then they don't use the drivers that work properly with the Quadro. It's a Quadro running on a freaking Geforce driver. Whooo Haaa for 3D apps.

Power, and feature wise the Mac Pro is like a Minor League team playing on a big league field vs. the All Star team. It's a freaking slaughter out there.
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post #28 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlooker View Post

I have an iPhone, and all I can say is the nay-sayers had me paranoid at the last minute (about the speed of edge and stuff) but truthfully Mine is working just as good, if not better than the ones SJ had hooked up to wires in the first keynote. This thing is fast IMO, and.. Well actually quite a bit faster than I thought it would be. It has not been over hyped as I though it was before I bought it, but now that I'm using it and playing with it.. It's getting the hype it deserves.

I have not found a thing about it that is a negative yet.

I read all the pro-iPhone hype articles. I read all the negative articles by mainstream tech writers. And, I read all the negative posts on this forum like--it doesn't have a 1 gigawatt laser!?! What was Apple thinking? Or, yeah, the feature set is OK but it's not as good as Spock's Tricofder.

After abouy 8 hours of on and off use, here's my assesment:

* It took me all of 5 minute to Sync & Activate rhe device ( I read the manual first and I watched the Apple site videos).
* This device is drop-dead gorgeous.
* It is easy to use; most functions are accomplished intuitively, i.e. typical Apple functionality
* The multi-touch features are indeed revolutionairy on a mobile device
* The Web experience is off the charts even with EDGE. The pages are so clear and readable.
* Using WiFi , browsing and web site reading are easy, fast & pleasureable experiences (I know some Crackberry addicts who are going to have a serious case of P-envy).
* The typing is geting better by the hour. As the web tutorial says, trust the software. The learning curve is exponential if you read the directions.
* I watched 1 episode of The Shield and 2 fantastic YouTube videos (Evolution of Dance & Paul Sings Nessum Dorma--you gotta go see these 2)--the video clarity and resolution on a mobile phone are breathtaking.
* I listened to music and 1 chapter of "The Tipping Point" (very relevant for this device)
* Reading text email is a snap. Text is clear, scrolling through lists is simple
* Making and receiving calls are as exactly as advertized on the Guided tour

I could go on and on but I'll stop. I'm in lust.

This is a major home run for AAPL. A Mega blockbuster.

As word spreads and the public gets to see the device in the hands of their friends or in their own at stores, an epidemic of iPhone buying (similiar to the Nintendo Wii) in the US is not impossible.

The fact that the v1 feature set can be upgraded by software is also exciting and just one more plus on top of so many others.

The nay-sayers will have to grasp at straws to continue to knock this v1 device. I expect that they will anyway.

The CNBC cutsy boys and girls (who still insist on having idiots like John Dvorak on as guest "Tech Experts") will try their best on Monday to point out its flaws (no laser, not a tricorder, EDGE sucks! ) but this will be a tough bill of goods for them to sell as time goes by.
post #29 of 45
Maybe Apple have got some inside Info on Google deploying WiFi/WiMAX across the US?
The cloud is coming
5-8" MultiTouch Mini Tablet would go down a treat if you're reading!
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5-8" MultiTouch Mini Tablet would go down a treat if you're reading!
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post #30 of 45
I'm with Ireland on the future of Touch screens.

however there are a large number of computers users who don't have the imagination to believe that they don't need an antiquated keyboard to provide data entry.

We've grown to know keyboards over the last 20/30 years. Children born today will never get that attachment and the keyboard will soon be as novel as the dial telephone is to us.
post #31 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Remember, guys, it is not that far off that computers will have sufficient computing complexity and power to simulate the human brain... by 2025 or 2045 (if I recall correctly). Once you can speak and gesture to your digital assistant simulacrum and it correctly interprets your wishes, we will truly have entered the Cyborg Age.


That was a bullshit comparison/prediction. The fact we will be able to theoretically stuff enough transistors into the same gymnasium sized facility doesn't begin to give us the proper feel and theory of how to parallelize COMPLETELY in hardware. We have already passed the futurists predictive thresholds of having enough something to simulate the brain twice. Just because Kurzweil put out the latest date prediction doesn't make it any more likely. Those futurists just keep re-jiggering their predictions in hope that eventually one of them will be close enough to be able to cash in on it.
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post #32 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hiro View Post

That was a bullshit comparison/prediction. The fact we will be able to theoretically stuff enough transistors into the same gymnasium sized facility doesn't begin to give us the proper feel and theory of how to parallelize COMPLETELY in hardware. We have already passed the futurists predictive thresholds of having enough something to simulate the brain twice. Just because Kurzweil put out the latest date prediction doesn't make it any more likely. Those futurists just keep re-jiggering their predictions in hope that eventually one of them will be close enough to be able to cash in on it.

Kurzweil is more optimistic than I tend to be about these things, however, his projections align with Moore's Law and I believe there is solid reasoning in this theory. It may be that true Artificial Intelligence is a pipe dream, or it may require duplicating the whole 'person', not just the brain in order to sufficiently create independent intelligent humanoid non-humans.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #33 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by THT View Post

Intel's Silverthorne is coming in 2008, an x86 processor for handhelds, and they consider it the most important Intel processor release since the Pentium. It will provide enough horsepower for 95% of the market needs in 3 years or so when it is on 32 nm.

I would imagine so, since ARM has been acting quickly to command the low-power multimedia space with the Cortex, on top of the fact that ARM owns this space, currently. Intel's business model, at the moment, doesn't work for mobile devices. For silverthorne to be a success, Intel will have to adopt new policies, particularly in regard to technology licensing, because the mobile device market is inherently not accessible to commodity OEM strategies. Unless Intel opens up its 32nm fab and has facilities for partners to design SoCs on top of this core, Silverthorne will be another pile of ash in the long history of high-tech.
Cat: the other white meat
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Cat: the other white meat
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post #34 of 45
1.Before Steve came back to Apple did they not publish a few short films about how Apple was going to create over time a life like personal computer out of a Newton?
2. In the end is the iPhone and the iPod for that matter the Steve Jobs RDF of the Newton Division? I do agree Apple is on the cutting edge here of this new hand held computing and they need to move fast.
3. OS 11 first mobile only computer OS? Five more .0 revisions is 10-12 years away! Think about it.
4. Speaking of moving fast, how difficult would it be realistically for Apple to scale this solution up from 3.5" to say 10/12 running REAL OSX 10.5 with like a Core 2 Low Voltage or something?
5. When will iChat go Windows like our beloved Safari?
6. Final I know its 1AM here. If this thing can run MS Office for Mac by Xmas and the Euro's are finally signed up umm when will Apple's market cap reach M$'s? The're are more than a third the way now???
post #35 of 45
Quote:
In 3 or 4 years, I don't think I'd be needing a more powerful personal computer than what I could get today.

This type of thing is said far too often.
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proud resident of a failed state
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post #36 of 45
My uncle tells me that in the early 80's a company called Winchester (sic?) came out with a 5.25" full form factor 10 Mb (thats megabyte!) drive. He plainly remembers people scoffing, saying "What will we ever need a 10 Mb drive for on a desktop? That's more capacity than we could ever use!"
post #37 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrtotes View Post


. . . there are a large number of computers users who don't have the imagination to believe that they don't need an antiquated keyboard to provide data entry.

We've grown to know keyboards over the last 20/30 years. Children born today will never get that attachment and the keyboard will soon be as novel as the dial telephone is to us.


Ridiculous. Try typing a 200 page manuscript on a touch screen. Also, can you do data entry without looking at the screen?

Voice recognition is the only practical replacement of the keyboard for an author, but has anyone invented voice data entry for a spread sheet?

Maybe when computers can read our minds we can replace the keyboard.

post #38 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by snoopy View Post

Ridiculous. Try typing a 200 page manuscript on a touch screen. Also, can you do data entry without looking at the screen?

Voice recognition is the only practical replacement of the keyboard for an author, but has anyone invented voice data entry for a spread sheet?

Maybe when computers can read our minds we can replace the keyboard.


Why do people always limit the future to what they have always known in the past?
post #39 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by snoopy View Post

Ridiculous. Try typing a 200 page manuscript on a touch screen. Also, can you do data entry without looking at the screen?

Voice recognition is the only practical replacement of the keyboard for an author, but has anyone invented voice data entry for a spread sheet?

Maybe when computers can read our minds we can replace the keyboard.


It's true. On wed I'm doing a presentation/training session in Olympia WA for some Healthcare professionals on voice recognition. This scenario always plays out.

1. Explain the basics of voice recog and command and control.
2. Dictate a paragraph including medical terminology and pharmaceutical brands.
3. Watch their jaws drop.

Or how about our clients that are blind/low vision? Show me a surface technology that is going to allow a BLV patient or someone without arms to compute. I could set you up with a system where you could compute in the dark hands free.

I agree with THT on this

The evolution of the iPhone could very well incorporate an external link to a larger monitor, larger hard drives, and hopefully voice recognition and command and control.

Your life...in your pocket.
He's a mod so he has a few extra vBulletin privileges. That doesn't mean he should stop posting or should start acting like Digital Jesus.
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He's a mod so he has a few extra vBulletin privileges. That doesn't mean he should stop posting or should start acting like Digital Jesus.
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post #40 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by snoopy View Post

Ridiculous. Try typing a 200 page manuscript on a touch screen. Also, can you do data entry without looking at the screen?

Voice recognition is the only practical replacement of the keyboard for an author, but has anyone invented voice data entry for a spread sheet?

Maybe when computers can read our minds we can replace the keyboard.


You need to think of future computers as assistants. You will instruct them what you want done, and they will simply do it and keep you updated. The power of the computer/communications is to leverage the power of the individual. Where it used to be that if you wanted something done, you had to do it yourself, but the new paradigm will be: If you want something done, delegate it to your Apple PA™ (with the power of thousands of professionals at your fingertips).

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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