or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › iPhone roadmap to 10 million units
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

iPhone roadmap to 10 million units

post #1 of 32
Thread Starter 
The expert opinion on getting to 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 is over here (link currently down so here is the google cache).
(guy was the Global Head of 3G Business Consultancy for Nokia with a background in econometric modelling division as part of that = knows what he's talking about)


Mine is just what I think Apple needs to do with upcoming revisions in a little more hardware detail. Frankly the reports are that the keyboard is fine for writing, even fast, so I don't see a physical keyboard model. However I'm forced to agree with my linky up there that removable battery/memory will become an issueI'm just not sure Apple will realize this.

Without further ado, the timeline I made up based on a) public Apple comments about when iPhone gets where, b) my linky above, and c) the hardware baseline in each market at that time.

Xmas 2007 Revision B/Europe, World
Europe's 3G iPhone (can also be sold in world outside of Japan/South Korea, NA). Main difference is 2100 MHz UMTS band, possibly GPS and/or digital TV, better camera, memory bump, video calls, oh and recording video if that hasn't been firmware enabled by then. Removable battery/memory are a possibility, and would help them sell.

Macworld 2008 Revision B/North America
North America's 3G iPhone. Main feature is 850/1900 MHz UMTS, otherwise same features as Rev B/Europe.
-SDK should be out by then if they plan on making one.

Spring 2008 Revision B/Japan, South Korea
Japanese/South Korean model because of market specific features required. UMTS 2100 MHz, GPS, one-seg TV (and SK digital TV), better camera over Europe/NA Rev B, near field contact chip for e-cash, thumbprint or retinal scanner, better (OLED) screen, other market required features. Removable battery/memory are basically required.
-Remember Japan is half the size of the USA, and way more mobile mad. It's worth it to put in Japan specific hardware. Same with South Korea (well, less population).

Xmas 2008
Tri-band UMTS iPhone with digital TV chips mature enough for multi-band. GPS for sure if it wasn't earlier, better camera yet again, WiFi 'n' and possibly WiFi 'Max', near field contact chip for e-cash (spread outside Japan by then), another memory bump, and market specific features have been reduced to software only. Removable battery/memory are likely if it hasn't happened yet.
-This allows Apple to release a single worldwide iPhone 2 with all the lessons of Revision B various iterations.



[1] I imagine the iPhone will not see more then modest price reductions if any for some time. I'd bet on an iPhone nano at Macworld 2009dump WiFi, lose .5" on the screen, no GPS, lower memory, worse camera, etc
post #2 of 32
Good post.

I think all the points made in that article are good.
The camera, video capture, and battery life must be greater than or equal to other phones @ the $350+ price point...

...and while spec matching will allow the iPhone to sieze a % of the competitors' sales...

...it will not make competition look insufficient and laughable.

Building off the idea that the iPhone is the first attempt at a true handheld computer, and the fact that the market for handheld computerphones will be very significant within 7-10 years, I think Jobs' best bet to wipe out competition is to play his whole hand EARLY.

No one underestimates the power of making an expensive ($799-$999) iPhone flagship that every celebrity will own, and the subsequent entry level sales and appeal that brings.

#1. Be willing to sacrifice some sales on high-capacity iPods.
#2. Work with AT&T to bring the price point of 200 minutes, basic cable, and internet service to iPhone users for $99 monthly.
#3. Make bottom-mount RCA/HDMI expansion packs, styled like iLuv battery packs.

The UI, logical flow between apps/basic framework is there. The key is to expand your potential market to the lower demographics, and I'm not necessarily talking about price. Making the iPhone a publicly heralded viable option against a basic sh!tty entry desktop (used primarily for web, music, pics), and bringing that basic desktop function, to the comfort of the couch and the TV, is the way to do it.

This would require little more than 2 main components not currently on the first 2 members of the iPhone family...

~~#1. The higher capacity hard drives from the iPod line (40gb, 80gb,etc)~~

Unfortuneately, this would mean a sacrifice in iPod sales for Apple, due to people skipping out on a seperate dedicated iPod, in favor of a slightly thicker member of the iPhone family, with similar hard drive capacity to most current budget desktops.

~~#2. Bottom mount expansion packs~~ (~$69analog, ~$99digital)

Similar in appearance to the iLuv battery pack...



Only radically different in function...
...the key being extremely easy, familiar, and high quality interfacing with common household periphreals.

On the bottom of the analog expansion pack would be several extremely common connections:
1. Audio/Video RCA outputs
2. Power Supply input
3. Qwerty Keyboard input


The digital expansion pack would feature the same paired with high-end digital audio/video connections:
1. Audio/Video HDMI outputs (or other popular digital standard)
2. Power Supply input
3. Qwerty Keyboard input


Pairing the mobile convienience of a high-capacity storage iPhone with the ability to function as a basic consumer desktop in the home (using TV set as monitor) would drastically expand the market and budget appeal.

The increased storage would not only mirror entry desktop storage for pics & music, but paired with the bottom-mount expansion packs, would also open the iPhone up as a pocket-sized NetFlix, so to speak. As well as allowing for conversations among friends about movies, to turn into watching the movie in as much time as it takes to pull iPhone out of pocket, plug up the HDMI/RCA cable to the nearest TV, and hit the couches.

Sh!t, put Hodgeman and Long in a commercial together, with long plugging his iPhone into the HDMI input on a plasma, having access to dozens of compressed DVD's right in his hard drive equipped iPhone...
post #3 of 32
all that is good. First enable downloading of itunes content to the phone via wifi. Then the ability to transfer new purchased music back to the base computer on the next synch.
post #4 of 32
EM,

Thanks again for another fine post.

I thought Tomy Ahomen's article was excellent the first time I read it a few weeks ago when you referenced it in another thread. However, I think the first week's iPhone sales results indicate that Ahonen's North American prediction of 2.6 M units sold by the end of 2008 is way underestimated.

The North American sales will need to achieve a typical monthly sales volume of 128,000 iPhones, with peaks at double that in Christmas of both years. They need to achieve cumulative sales of 2.6 million iPhones by December 2008. Then North America is on track.


I made this comment earlier when I first read his rather long but knowledegable article. If this NA estimate is indeed way low, do you think this will alter Apple's strategy in Europe and Asia in any way because the pressure will be off to meet the public goal of 10 M units by the end of 2008 ?

IMO, Apple's stated goal of 10M units was always a UPOD-under promise, over deliver estimate.

On the battery issue, unlike the Ipod, I can see a large new cottage industry developing in the US. Drop off your iPhone at our store in the morning, pick it up in ~4 hours with a new battery for $XX.YY or wait ~1 hour for $ZZ.QQ. As to actual pricing, I have no clue what would work. The marketplace would determine that. Apple's ~$90 sendaway price is the only current comparator but it includes bi-drectional high speed postal costs. Finally, note that a new standard self installable Blackberry battery retails for about $55, less on ebay etc.
post #5 of 32
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

EM,

Thanks again for another fine post.

I thought Tomy Ahomen's article was excellent the first time I read it a few weeks ago when you referenced it in another thread. However, I think the first week's iPhone sales results indicate that Ahonen's North American prediction of 2.6 M units sold by the end of 2008 is way underestimated.

The North American sales will need to achieve a typical monthly sales volume of 128,000 iPhones, with peaks at double that in Christmas of both years. They need to achieve cumulative sales of 2.6 million iPhones by December 2008. Then North America is on track.


I made this comment earlier when I first read his rather long but knowledegable article. If this NA estimate is indeed way low, do you think this will alter Apple's strategy in Europe and Asia in any way because the pressure will be off to meet the public goal of 10 M units by the end of 2008 ?

IMO, Apple's stated goal of 10M units was always a UPOD-under promise, over deliver estimate.

On the battery issue, unlike the iPod, I can see a large new cottage industry developing in the US. Drop off your iPhone at our store in the morning, pick it up in ~4 hours with a new battery for $XX.YY or wait ~1 hour for $ZZ.QQ. As to actual pricing, I have no clue what would work. The marketplace would determine that. Apple's ~$90 sendaway price is the only current comparator but it includes bi-directional high speed postal costs. Finally, note that a new standard self installable Blackberry battery retails for about $55, less on ebay etc.

Thanks, I try

I'll cover the battery issue first—I agree. I figure Apple will charge whatever the battery actually costs them + install time to make up for not being able to replace it. Likewise I imagine an industry of rechargeable rapid-charge battery packs will come into play—plug it into your iPhone for an hour and iPhone sucks it dry to charge itself.

This may, now that I think about and if there is an Apple branded quick-charge pack one, take any pressure off of them to allow the battery to be removed. Memory, on the other hand, will either have to become removable or possibly an iTunes branded file swap site (legal issues) given the way people use memory cards to share things in Europe and Japan.


Well the article does state that even doubling the North American sales (if the European sales come in half the required per month) will still put them below their 10 million goal, however the issue of the software keyboard has been largely eliminated (vibration/hapetic feedback would help with the tactile issue) and that, along with 3G, was—arguably—the largest thing standing in the way of success outside the USA.

The UI is so ludicrously better then every other phone ever made that it comes down entirely to hardware (and Japan specific software)—as Japanese and European news sources have said. Especially in Japan the news sources have been freakin' glowing (they do, however, always mention that iPhone Japan will require additional hardware/software features) and the Japanese mobile manufactures are somewhat worried when they weren't before.

My best guess is that NTT DoCoMo would use the iPhone as a big blunt instrument to break the vicious subsidy cycle in Japan and would be willing to accept quite a lot of Apple's orders to do so. However they don't need the iPhone as much as Softbank, and so could drive a hard bargain.

If Softbank gets it they'll use to establish credibility and play in the big leagues, and probably wholesale switch all their mobiles to iTunes OTA which would likely be one of their very few conditions outside Japan specific features. They would likely be more willing to give into Apple's demands as long as Apple understood what iPhone Japan would need.

My first post in the thread is what I believe the hardware baseline for that time period for that market is. The NA 3G iPhone can come in Spring 2008 instead of Xmas 2007 (probably should, given ramping up requirements for new models), but the European/Japan models pretty much need to follow the timelines I posted if Apple wants to keep sales high (the UI, will of course, drive some sales irregardless of hardware but it may result in unhappy customers).

I think viewing sales in North America as letting them more freedom in sales elsewhere is a mistake and I think they should instead use sales to drive better bargains with operators overseas—which they seem to be doing—and launch as fast as their ability to build (updated) iPhones lets them. The need for new iPhones on a 6-8 month timetable is what may get them.

Apple's main issues are:
-Understanding the market overseas by keeping an aggressive hardware/software update cycle to reach sales goals and hit the moderately higher baseline hardware requirements in Europe and the rather high baseline hardware/software requirements in Japan.
-Operator partnerships, especially in Japan where they need an OTA iTunes store and many many software/hardware features.

Quite frankly the iPhone is going to sell like wildfire (15 million?) if they can keep those two issues managed.
post #6 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Electric Monk View Post

Thanks, I try

I'll cover the battery issue first—I agree. I figure Apple will charge whatever the battery actually costs them + install time to make up for not being able to replace it. Likewise I imagine an industry of rechargeable rapid-charge battery packs will come into play—plug it into your iPhone for an hour and iPhone sucks it dry to charge itself.

This may, now that I think about and if there is an Apple branded quick-charge pack one, take any pressure off of them to allow the battery to be removed. Memory, on the other hand, will either have to become removable or possibly an iTunes branded file swap site (legal issues) given the way people use memory cards to share things in Europe and Japan.


Well the article does state that even doubling the North American sales (if the European sales come in half the required per month) will still put them below their 10 million goal, however the issue of the software keyboard has been largely eliminated (vibration/hapetic feedback would help with the tactile issue) and that, along with 3G, was—arguably—the largest thing standing in the way of success outside the USA.

The UI is so ludicrously better then every other phone ever made that it comes down entirely to hardware (and Japan specific software)—as Japanese and European news sources have said. Especially in Japan the news sources have been freakin' glowing (they do, however, always mention that iPhone Japan will require additional hardware/software features) and the Japanese mobile manufactures are somewhat worried when they weren't before.

My best guess is that NTT DoCoMo would use the iPhone as a big blunt instrument to break the vicious subsidy cycle in Japan and would be willing to accept quite a lot of Apple's orders to do so. However they don't need the iPhone as much as Softbank, and so could drive a hard bargain.

If Softbank gets it they'll use to establish credibility and play in the big leagues, and probably wholesale switch all their mobiles to iTunes OTA which would likely be one of their very few conditions outside Japan specific features. They would likely be more willing to give into Apple's demands as long as Apple understood what iPhone Japan would need.

My first post in the thread is what I believe the hardware baseline for that time period for that market is. The NA 3G iPhone can come in Spring 2008 instead of Xmas 2007 (probably should, given ramping up requirements for new models), but the European/Japan models pretty much need to follow the timelines I posted if Apple wants to keep sales high (the UI, will of course, drive some sales irregardless of hardware but it may result in unhappy customers).

I think viewing sales in North America as letting them more freedom in sales elsewhere is a mistake and I think they should instead use sales to drive better bargains with operators overseas—which they seem to be doing—and launch as fast as their ability to build (updated) iPhones lets them. The need for new iPhones on a 6-8 month timetable is what may get them.

Apple's main issues are:
-Understanding the market overseas by keeping an aggressive hardware/software update cycle to reach sales goals and hit the moderately higher baseline hardware requirements in Europe and the rather high baseline hardware/software requirements in Japan.
-Operator partnerships, especially in Japan where they need an OTA iTunes store and many many software/hardware features.

Quite frankly the iPhone is going to sell like wildfire (15 million?) if they can keep those two issues managed.

Thanks again for another informative post.

What do you think the effect of the iPhone's hack and unlock by DVD Jon et al will have on Apple's foray into the European and Asian markets?

Do you think Apple was caught off guard by the rapidity with which the unlocking process was achieved?

Thanks.
post #7 of 32
I think Apple is going to be more conservative with hardware updates for the iPhone. I see it happening every two years to coincide with service contracts from AT&T. Plus how many people would be really upset if Apple brought out a 3G version by this Christmas. Not going to happen, it's too soon. They haven't even worked out all the bugs on the current model.

Plus I think Apple is going to try and be more consistent with the iPhone then even the ipod. Because it is basically a computer platform. You'll want to be able to run new software even on a 3 or 4 year old iPhone.
post #8 of 32
>Do you think Apple was caught off guard by the rapidity with which the unlocking process was achieved?

Here's my take on it. Apple expected it. They know the core is BSD with known cracks in it. AT&T was caught off guard, if they realized how easy it is to hack BSD they would have insisted on plan signup with purchase.
At least that way AT&T gets their cut. AT&T has learned the hard lesson of making deals with Jobs.
post #9 of 32
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ApplePi View Post

I think Apple is going to be more conservative with hardware updates for the iPhone. I see it happening every two years to coincide with service contracts from AT&T. Plus how many people would be really upset if Apple brought out a 3G version by this Christmas. Not going to happen, it's too soon. They haven't even worked out all the bugs on the current model.

Plus I think Apple is going to try and be more consistent with the iPhone then even the ipod. Because it is basically a computer platform. You'll want to be able to run new software even on a 3 or 4 year old iPhone.

Impossible. Flat-out impossible. Apple basically took over the MP3 player market lock, stock, and smoking barrel. Therefore they got to dictate the refresh cycle because it simply didn't matter as their closest competition was a tenth their size.

The smartphone market (or regular phone market in Japan alone) is simply too large for Apple to dictate the refresh cycle they want. They either keep up to date, or they don't sell.

Two years? Are you mad, man? In 2 years the iPhone would likely be the only phone above a hundred dollars that lacks 3G in the United States. In 2 years their sales in Europe will be less then a million because they never released a 3G model and so the opening sales are most of the sales. In 2 years they will not have sold a single iPhone in Japan/South Korea because it didn't have the required 3G, and the parts of Asia with GSM/EDGE (not many) will have sold a handful because it was too expensive.

The market Apple has entered has a high pace of hardware evolution (but crap software, which is why Apple is going to do so well) and Apple has to keep up. Simple as that. Perhaps every 6-8 months per market is ambitiousbut remember the software will be updated for at least 24 months barring hardware required features of newer iPhone models.

The bugs you speak of? Software only and they plan to keep updating that for at least 24 months.

So your two year cycle? Batshit crazy in the telecommunications market. Honest to god if they tried it? Dead in the water except, perhaps, in the United States.

However one imagines Apple has spent a lot of money on market consultants so that they understand the market that they're entering worldwide (think of the American telecommunications market as a small child talking to teenagers [Europe] and grown-ups [Japan]).

Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

Thanks again for another informative post.

What do you think the effect of the iPhone's hack and unlock by DVD Jon et al will have on Apple's foray into the European and Asian markets?

Do you think Apple was caught off guard by the rapidity with which the unlocking process was achieved?

Thanks.

Zip.

Nope.

Only a very small handful of people care about esoteric unlocking procedures and Apple understands how rapidly stuff gets cracked via their iTunes and Mac OS X/Intel experience. They expected it and it will have just about no impact on anything.

Especially because they know that, depending on the European country, they'll have to provide either unlocked iPhones at launch or the unlocking codes within 6 months or so.
post #10 of 32
EM,

Are you residing in Japan? If so is there much excitement over the iPhone there? What kind of reception do you think it will get in that market?
post #11 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Electric Monk View Post


lfe2211 Questions

What do you think the effect of the iPhone's hack and unlock by DVD Jon et al will have on Apple's foray into the European and Asian markets?

Do you think Apple was caught off guard by the rapidity with which the unlocking process was achieved?


EM Responses

Zip.

Nope.

----------------------------------------

Only a very small handful of people care about esoteric unlocking procedures and Apple understands how rapidly stuff gets cracked via their iTunes and Mac OS X/Intel experience. They expected it and it will have just about no impact on anything.

Especially because they know that, depending on the European country, they'll have to provide either unlocked iPhones at launch or the unlocking codes within 6 months or so.

EM,

Thanks for confirming my suspicions. Here in the US, the "Unlock/Hack" is being hyped by some of our know-nothing electronic press as something really bad for Apple . It made no sense to me based on what you have said about the hardware requirements for the Euro and Asian markets.
post #12 of 32
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

EM,

Are you residing in Japan? If so is there much excitement over the iPhone there? What kind of reception do you think it will get in that market?

Sigh, I wish. I'm in Canada where god only knows if Rogers (aka the bringer of darkness to all that is good and pure[1]) gets the iPhone.

However, the Japanese press, and the Japanese people I know, love the iPhone. Really so much so that the Japanese mobile manufactures are a little worried when they weren't before. If Apple steps up to the plate with the required hardware/software they may well be able to not only sell iPhones as phones but also crack into the sales of the ultra-mobile PCs of various sorts (UMPCs actually work there, given space restrictions on train commutes and the like) as the iPhone is very nearly as capable barring some document work.



[1] Rogers is so evil that they charge $100 for 100 MB of data. Nor is there nationwide long-distance, or roll-over minutes, or anything that doesn't hurt you in places you don't want to be hurt. The Canadian telecom market is arguably the worst in the developed world. In fact it's so bad we're going backwards! The plans from 3-4 years ago are way better then current plans.
post #13 of 32
Sounds like Canada would be ripe grounds for WiMax cell+internet providers...

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #14 of 32
I believe the current iPhone will be released in much of Europe before the 3G version is built. The 3G version will coincide with the iPhone's release in Japan in mid-2008.

And they'll never have user-changeable memory or batteries. It doesn't matter how many cell-phone columnists say it should.
post #15 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell View Post

I believe the current iPhone will be released in much of Europe before the 3G version is built. The 3G version will coincide with the iPhone's release in Japan in mid-2008.

And they'll never have user-changeable memory or batteries. It doesn't matter how many cell-phone columnists say it should.

I don't care about the memory, but user replaceable batteries are a must. If you use the phone constantly and you have no batt backup, that is just asinine.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #16 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell View Post

I believe the current iPhone will be released in much of Europe before the 3G version is built. The 3G version will coincide with the iPhone's release in Japan in mid-2008.

And they'll never have user-changeable memory or batteries. It doesn't matter how many cell-phone columnists say it should.

Base on what EM and others (see the Tomi Amonen quote below) have said, Apple can not release an iPhone in Europe unless it is 3G, i.e. almost no one would buy a 2.5G phone. The iPhone as currently equipped is for the US market only.

No 3G. This is a very serious drawback. Not in America, obviously, where 3G is not as advanced and in demand. But the first iPhone is definitely an obsolescent phone even for America, and definitely without 3G it would be an obsolete phone for advanced parts of Asia and Europe. This is like a top-end luxury car without even electric windows and air conditioning. Really really out of date.
post #17 of 32
We all understand that as of Sunday July 8th @ 6:01 PM the iPhone *HAS NOT* been unlocked from AT&T right?!?!

It as been 'faked into thinking its activated' and as such now lets people utilize any/all non-phone functions (wifi, browser, iTunes, etc). This is still a far cry from being a fully functioning phone on a non-AT&T cellular carrier. Don't get me wrong, the day WILL come and I'd bet it's sooner rather than later... but we are NOT there at this moment in time.

Dave
Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
Reply
Apple Fanboy: Anyone who started liking Apple before I did!
Reply
post #18 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

Base on what EM and others (see the Tomi Amonen quote below) have said, Apple can not release an iPhone in Europe unless it is 3G, i.e. almost no one would buy a 2.5G phone. The iPhone as currently equipped is for the US market only.

No 3G. This is a very serious drawback. Not in America, obviously, where 3G is not as advanced and in demand. But the first iPhone is definitely an obsolescent phone even for America, and definitely without 3G it would be an obsolete phone for advanced parts of Asia and Europe. This is like a top-end luxury car without even electric windows and air conditioning. Really really out of date.

How many Europeans use 3G today? 20%?

No, people are saying today that in the US no one will buy the iPhone right now because it doesn't have 3G. There's no way Apple invested so much in this model only to revise it in 2-3 months and release an upgraded version in Europe. They'll sell the same (overwhelmingly positively-reviewed) model in Europe starting this Fall and then release a 3G model in 6 months so that they'll get not only the new customers but previous customers upgrading their original iPhones.

Wanna bet on it?
post #19 of 32
Thread Starter 
Oh I can easily see Apple selling a million current model iPhones in Europe in the opening month (assuming they go beyond UK/France/Germany). However I can also see a ton of unhappy people who realize their $600 iPhone is slower then their $200 or less regular mobile, and can't find a WiFi spot to get faster speeds.

The European telecom market IS NOT THE SAME as the American telecom market and I'm freaking sick of people thinking it is. Can the EDGE iPhone sell? Sure. Will it meet sales targets without a 3G model? Probably not beyond a month or two.

Not to mention that with limited EDGE coverage (heck O2 doesn't even have EDGE, and they're the rumoured carrier for the UK) and not too many WiFi hotspots (free or paid) data usage will suck in Europe. So the lovely iPhone with it's amazing user interface will be crippled in speed and coverage compared to smartphones and your regular mobile.

It doesn't matter in the USA because EDGE is everywhere and there are plenty of WiFi hotspotsthis is not the same in Europe. They mostly skipped EDGE in favour of UMTS, and persuasive UMTS (even if it slower) is better then WiFi in limited locations which is why they haven't adopted it to the extent the USA/Canada has.

And no, I'm not willing to bet on it because I could easily see Apple making the mistake you're advocating for.

Frankly if Apple doesn't have enough time for a 3G model I'd delay any Europe model until the beginning of 2008, which would also help them roll out in all European countriesnot just the big ones. Launch both the 3G North American model and the 3G European model at Macworld '08. Maybe even the Japanese/South Korean model if they're on top of things.
post #20 of 32
Is it possible that 3g could be unlocked in the iPhone much like the MBPs were able to 'upgrade' to an 802.11n wireless card with the $1.99 firmware update?
post #21 of 32
i was reading today on google news tech about apple talking to carriers in britain
they say SJ went in and said the "old business model is dead and iphone is the future"
can someone explain both "old business model" and apples business model for the iphone for US and Europe??? understanding both will help in understanding how that path to 10million may be on ...over ....or under estimates (i believed before reading that artcle and analysis that it would follow the ipod craze because of the interface ipod+itunes, now iphone---boy wouldn't it be neat if SJ patented moble phone activation via music portal) the way the article goes i need to wait for the upgraded version. i think the plan of SJ was to show the WOW factor give people plans to change their contracts, and build hype as the must have unit. the artlcle (perhaps i didn't see it) said nothing as to the crippling of the european and asian smartphones with windows moble including HTC--windows moble and symbian iare no osX...the business model of controlling hardware/software interface is pure apple the antithesis of M$ in which the hardware is simply "good enough" remember the itunes+ipod interface really made the ipod great. so i see this as iphone+osx+itunes interface that melts the competition. the next step is a way to wirelessly, cellular sync. i wish i could keep my contacts on a server like .mac and sync instead of working the sim card. do you reallize how much time you save when you use itunes to activate a phone AT home compared to the 2-3 hour mess at a moble office (gee order phone, it arrives, a few minutes later you are working)
thanks
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
Reply
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
Reply
post #22 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Is it possible that 3g could be unlocked in the iPhone much like the MBPs were able to 'upgrade' to an 802.11n wireless card with the $1.99 firmware update?

another reply said this required a new chip which was battery hungry, not simply a firmware upgrade.
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
Reply
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
Reply
post #23 of 32
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Is it possible that 3g could be unlocked in the iPhone much like the MBPs were able to 'upgrade' to an 802.11n wireless card with the $1.99 firmware update?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

another reply said this required a new chip which was battery hungry, not simply a firmware upgrade.

The iPhone does not include the UMTS radio it would need. This is definitive.

As for battery, even staying purely on a UMTS (3G) network is only a 30% hit at worst, so most days you're going to lose 10-20% and I imagine a clever piece of software would (um, outside of Japan/South Korea) only power on the radio when you start using selected programs like Safari or sending/receiving large emails or when a call comes in (because UMTS calls sound better).

Rest of the time it can stick with GSM/EDGE for background texts/email and the like.
post #24 of 32
I'd still like to see the statistics that show Europe has so much higher 3G usage rates to make it necessary. Remember how big of a complaint this is in the US right now, but that didn't stop them. Whether it's the right decision or not, I don't know. But clearly it's the decision they made, and from what I've seen, Europe really isn't so fundamentally different from the US as to make them change that decision. Now, Japan and Korea, that will be different.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Electric Monk View Post

Oh I can easily see Apple selling a million current model iPhones in Europe in the opening month (assuming they go beyond UK/France/Germany). However I can also see a ton of unhappy people who realize their $600 iPhone is slower then their $200 or less regular mobile, and can't find a WiFi spot to get faster speeds.

The European telecom market IS NOT THE SAME as the American telecom market and I'm freaking sick of people thinking it is. Can the EDGE iPhone sell? Sure. Will it meet sales targets without a 3G model? Probably not beyond a month or two.

Not to mention that with limited EDGE coverage (heck O2 doesn't even have EDGE, and they're the rumoured carrier for the UK) and not too many WiFi hotspots (free or paid) data usage will suck in Europe. So the lovely iPhone with it's amazing user interface will be crippled in speed and coverage compared to smartphones and your regular mobile.

It doesn't matter in the USA because EDGE is everywhere and there are plenty of WiFi hotspotsthis is not the same in Europe. They mostly skipped EDGE in favour of UMTS, and persuasive UMTS (even if it slower) is better then WiFi in limited locations which is why they haven't adopted it to the extent the USA/Canada has.

And no, I'm not willing to bet on it because I could easily see Apple making the mistake you're advocating for.

Frankly if Apple doesn't have enough time for a 3G model I'd delay any Europe model until the beginning of 2008, which would also help them roll out in all European countriesnot just the big ones. Launch both the 3G North American model and the 3G European model at Macworld '08. Maybe even the Japanese/South Korean model if they're on top of things.
post #25 of 32
BR,

I recommend that you read Tomi Ahonen's article, originally referenced by Electric Monk.

http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...ing-numbe.html

Ahonen has very serious credentials.

" in my current job I advise global mobile operators, the biggest handset manufacturers, the largest mobile telecoms infrastructure providers and various middlemen in the mobile industry, on their strategy. My previous job was heading Nokia's 3G Business Consultancy, and mobile telecoms business modelling is a core competence of mine. My first three books were all bestsellers specifically in the next generation mobile strategy, business, marketing and services areas. I lecture at several of Oxford University's courses about next generation mobile"

The paper provides a serious in depth analysis of US, European and Asian cell phone markets by an industry expert. It is a long read but well worth the time.
post #26 of 32
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell View Post

I'd still like to see the statistics that show Europe has so much higher 3G usage rates to make it necessary. Remember how big of a complaint this is in the US right now, but that didn't stop them. Whether it's the right decision or not, I don't know. But clearly it's the decision they made, and from what I've seen, Europe really isn't so fundamentally different from the US as to make them change that decision. Now, Japan and Korea, that will be different.

Heck if they just tossed the WiFi radio and put in the 3G radio they'd be fine.

The relevant quote from the article:

Stats: Last year in Europe, 15% of all phones in use were 3G phones. American 3G penetration rate is only 4% today. Europe has almost four times as many 3G phones per capita, and well over ten times as many in real terms, than in North America.

Just about every smartphone sold in Europe is a 3G phone. And the iPhone is not a 3G phone. And most of the appeal of the iPhone - music, video, internet surfing - are features which specifically benefit from 3G.

Couple that thought with multiple subscriptions. Almost all of our target users will have two phones and two subscriptions. They have the older phone, last year's SonyEricsson or Samsung or Nokia, which is already a 3G smartphone, and now get a new iPhone. Suddenly all performance, of downloading a song or surfing the web, etc, will be inferior compared to the older phone! Note that all Western European countries, and most of their rival operators within those countries have already launched 3G networks and services, and are now rolling out 3.5G. Most of Eastern European countries have already launched 3G as well. 3G is a make-or-break issues for the iPhone in Europe already this year.
post #27 of 32
Monk and lfe: I'm sorry, but it just sounds like the same things people have said about the iPod's missing "has to have this or Apple is doomed" features for years. Hell, they said the same thing about the iMac's missing floppy drive and use of USB. There's what all the analysts think absolutely has to happen, and then there's what Apple actually does. We've just seen it so many times with Apple.

Clearly there are trade-offs: Those European smartphones from Nokia and the like are much bigger and have around 1/3 the battery life of the iPhone. I don't know whether EDGE is the right decision, but it's clearly the decision Apple has made, for better or worse.

Given the fact that Apple said the EuroiPhone is coming in Fall quarter 2007 (July-Sept.), it seems awfully fast to me to completely revise the iPhone. It seems much more likely that it's the same iPhone. If they delayed that until the 4th quarter, I could see it as possible, but still highly unlikely.

That's why it seems to me that the same iPhone will start to be released in a few European countries very soon, and then, because of Japan's high current 3G usage (not to mention lack of GSM), the new 3G version will come out for Asia some months after the EU version.

And I just want to be clear: I'm neither defending this or criticizing it - I'm sure there are legitimate trade-offs, both technical and political. I'm just trying to take wishful thinking out of it.
post #28 of 32
can someone please explain the business model old and new i think that is crucial to understanding all this as per my earlier post we can talk about this and that but what is SJ new model
thanks
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
Reply
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
Reply
post #29 of 32
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell View Post

Monk and lfe: I'm sorry, but it just sounds like the same things people have said about the iPod's missing "has to have this or Apple is doomed" features for years.

[]

And I just want to be clear: I'm neither defending this or criticizing it - I'm sure there are legitimate trade-offs, both technical and political. I'm just trying to take wishful thinking out of it.

It's really not wishful thinking. It's that in Europe, WiFi and EDGE buy you much less they do in the United States. This one is simple: ditch the WiFi chip, add 3G chip, move on with life. Battery life, as I've said, is no more then 10-20% (30% purely on UMTS) and losing the WiFi means you have the space for UMTS. Good software can manage the radio and only turn it on for calls and actively using data (versus background data).

However, I do honestly think Apple is doing exactly what you say: current model iPhone to Europe. I'm just saying that's a mistake.

That said if Apple manages to roll out a new iPhone every 6 months, they can recover quite a bit, but first impressions matter and being stuck browsing data at GPRS (EDGE, if you're lucky) speeds when the dude with the $100 mobile next to you is using 3G and going a dozen times faster is not the way to go about it for you looking fondly at your $600 phone. Plus lousy pictures and no MMS and no video recording (previous two items fixable with software) and no video calls are not going to look good in Europe, not at all.

In the USA there is enough public and paid WiFi to take the sting off and 3G isn't widely deployed outside of urban centres. Europe, generally, is the reverse: lots of 3G, EDGE outside (but not inside) 3G coverage, and limited public and paid WiFi on the continent (UK, actually, has more WiFi per capita then the States).

Quite simply it's not like using the iPhone in the USA as it is.

It's like using the iPhone in a United States with no to little EDGE, and not a lot of WiFi.

Then add everybody else (with a smartphone/expensive regular mobile) browsing at 3G speeds (you're on dial-up GPRS, maybe EDGE), taking way better pictures (yours don't have a flash, and suck if stuff is moving), video recording and uploading (nope), MMS (yes, stupid, but popularnone for you), and video calling (not so much).

It's a whole nother world over there, and it's really not comparable to the United States. Think about a USA iPhone a year down the roadthat's what you need in Europe now.



Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

can someone please explain the business model old and new i think that is crucial to understanding all this as per my earlier post we can talk about this and that but what is SJ new model
thanks

I don't know. It's Jobs 'new' business model, and it's up to him to explain it.
post #30 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Electric Monk View Post

It's really not wishful thinking. It's that in Europe, WiFi and EDGE buy you much less they do in the United States. This one is simple: ditch the WiFi chip, add 3G chip, move on with life. Battery life, as I've said, is no more then 10-20% (30% purely on UMTS) and losing the WiFi means you have the space for UMTS. Good software can manage the radio and only turn it on for calls and actively using data (versus background data).

However, I do honestly think Apple is doing exactly what you say: current model iPhone to Europe. I'm just saying that's a mistake.

That said if Apple manages to roll out a new iPhone every 6 months, they can recover quite a bit, but first impressions matter and being stuck browsing data at GPRS (EDGE, if you're lucky) speeds when the dude with the $100 mobile next to you is using 3G and going a dozen times faster is not the way to go about it for you looking fondly at your $600 phone. Plus lousy pictures and no MMS and no video recording (previous two items fixable with software) and no video calls are not going to look good in Europe, not at all.

In the USA there is enough public and paid WiFi to take the sting off and 3G isn't widely deployed outside of urban centres. Europe, generally, is the reverse: lots of 3G, EDGE outside (but not inside) 3G coverage, and limited public and paid WiFi on the continent (UK, actually, has more WiFi per capita then the States).

Quite simply it's not like using the iPhone in the USA as it is.

It's like using the iPhone in a United States with no to little EDGE, and not a lot of WiFi.

Then add everybody else (with a smartphone/expensive regular mobile) browsing at 3G speeds (you're on dial-up GPRS, maybe EDGE), taking way better pictures (yours don't have a flash, and suck if stuff is moving), video recording and uploading (nope), MMS (yes, stupid, but popularnone for you), and video calling (not so much).

It's a whole nother world over there, and it's really not comparable to the United States. Think about a USA iPhone a year down the roadthat's what you need in Europe now.





I don't know. It's Jobs 'new' business model, and it's up to him to explain it.

EM,

What's hard for me to understand is why SJ would try to go with the v1 iPhone at launch in Europe. Surely he is well aware of everything you have stated in this thread and what Ahonen described in his article. Apple must also have expert consultants who advise them on the present state of telecom in Europe. Is it just pure hubris? In the US, Apple has been doing almost everything right for quite some time. It's hard to fathom how they could embark on a no-win strategy at launch in Europe.
post #31 of 32
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

EM,

What's hard for me to understand is why SJ would try to go with the v1 iPhone at launch in Europe. Surely he is well aware of everything you have stated in this thread and what Ahonen described in his article. Apple must also have expert consultants who advise them on the present state of telecom in Europe. Is it just pure hubris? In the US, Apple has been doing almost everything right for quite some time. It's hard to fathom how they could embark on a no-win strategy at launch in Europe.

Because Apple is an American company that happens to do some business overseas.

What is their best European country? The United Kingdom. This is also the country that most happens to resemble the United States (also likely the best place for the iPhone given the high amount of WiFi per capita).

I hope that Apple does listen to their consultants and upgrades the iPhone for Europe. Even if they don't I have hope that the User Interface will carry them sales-wise long enough to get to a 3G version in the late spring. I mean it's just freakin' light-years ahead, but is that enough to save it from crippled data usage compared to other top-shelf mobiles? In the United States because of EDGE everywhere and lots of WiFi the answer is yesin Europe without either of those*I don't know. I don't think so, frankly, but Apple is committed to the iPhone and can likely recover from even large missteps given opening sales in America.


However they don't seem inclined to listen to people outside America, take a look at Japan for instance. Over the last five years:
-Apple has tossed the 12" PB and 12" iBook with no replacement (Japan & Asia are big on ultra portableseven those were big, but just barely acceptable. 13"+ are not)
-Has not managed to introduce a mobile phone until 2008 (over a time when the entire market shifted straight to convergence musicphones, as Europe shows signs of followingin that respect the iPhone is a year or more late)
-Cancelled Macworld Tokyo (biggest attendance of any Macworld)
-Weak advertising (Mac Vs. PC in Japanesedoesn't work so much as to be counterproductive)
-Lacks understanding of household requirements like TV tuners (limited space means most desktops/laptops have built in TV tuners in Japan).
-In general has let Apple Japan become an incredibly poorly performing division.

If they had kept a strong presence in Japan with locals informing the mothership I would lay odds we would have had the iPhone a year agolower margins and a tad slower hardware but the same price just because it's so apparent in Japan that convergence is where it's at once everything starts to come together on the network and mobile hardware sides.
post #32 of 32
Apple... Japan... Two words that should go together... but don't.

I agree with everything. TV is a must; better would be a full HDMI version of a suped-up mini to control your 47" plasma screen TV.

Japan has a 3G system that reaches over 90% of it's population of 160 million plus. The Japanese are also gadget freaks like none other on earth. That means tons of potential customers for a music-savvy 3G phone, perhaps more than the # of potentials in the US with the current iPhone. If it is done right then it will sell like mad over here.

The US would not have been my first choice if I had read this article before hand:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/30/sc...f261e1&ei=5070

1 in 5 Americans think the sun flies around the earth. My wife wondered if they actually thought the sun spun around the US because GW certainly seems to think Texas is the center of the universe.

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › iPhone roadmap to 10 million units