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Analyst claims iPhone nano on track for fourth quarter

post #1 of 34
Thread Starter 
A researcher from JP Morgan believes that Apple is already on the verge of releasing a second, lower-cost iPhone model based on its most popular iPod.

Pointing to alleged, unnamed sources within the supply chain near his Taiwan office, analyst Kevin Chang suggests in a new report that Apple is gearing up for the release of a cheaper iPhone in the fourth quarter of 2007 that could use the iPod nano as its foundation to trim costs. A distinct possibility for Apple, Chang guesses, would be to simply gut the smaller iPod and price a version adapted for phone use at $300 or less.

"We believe that iPod Nano will be converted into a phone because it's probably the only way for Apple to launch a lower end phone without severely cannibalizing iPod Nano," Chang says in the report.

The prediction also refers to Apple's recent click wheel phone patent as proof of the technical backing for such a concept. The result would be "limited" in features but would be feasible with the approach described in the US Patent and Trademark Office filing, he says.

Such a price drop would also boast a far greater potential for sales in 2008 than the 10 million Apple chief Steve Jobs announced in January of this year. Sales of between 30 and 40 million are "achievable"if Apple has a less expensive iPhone ready in time, Chang adds.

The method described in the July 5th claim refers to a converted click wheel that adjusts its functions based on context, such as reverting from the traditional circular scrolling motions to tapping out phone numbers on different sections of the wheel during the calling process. No touchscreen is included or mentioned in this design, which to date remains only a concept.

Apple representative Natalie Kerris has declined comment on the issue, refusing to either confirm or deny the report. The company in the past has typically stated that it does not comment on rumors or unannounced products.
post #2 of 34
"Kevin Chang has suggests"
That's some quality grammar AI.

Also, why is this not in the iPhone category?

But as for the content of the article itself, I say that an iPhone nano would be pretty cool even though it has been talked to death already and we were sure it would come, but was just a matter of when.
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post #3 of 34
Bull. Perhaps he meant 4th quarter 2008...
post #4 of 34
iPhone nano eh?
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post #5 of 34
One of the 'kewler' iPhone Nano mockup photos I've seen, though even the guy who made it ('Folletto Malefico' on Flickr) admits the design is impractical:




.
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post #6 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobmarksdale View Post

"Kevin Chang has suggests"
That's some quality grammar AI.

Also, why is this not in the iPhone category?

post #7 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"We believe that iPod Nano will be converted into a phone because it's probably the only way for Apple to launch a lower end phone without severely cannibalizing iPod Nano," Chang says in the report.

This is just speculation, right? It would mean that Apple will replace their best-selling MP3 player with a phone? If true, can this iPhone nano be used as an iPod, without AT&T activation? In the fourth quarter of 2007 the iPhone will be available in the U.S. and in Europe, but maybe not all of Europe. And what about the Asian market? The iPod nano will be allegedly discontinued, the iPhone nano won't be available in Asia until some time next year.
post #8 of 34
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say "No." Apple patents all sorts of stuff, whether it's headed for imminent release, or not.

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post #9 of 34
I don't remember JP Morgan having any track record at all with Apple speculation, so I'll ignore this one until someone with a good track record says the same thing.
post #10 of 34
It could be the rotary iPhone nano, how cool.
post #11 of 34
I would really just like the Iphone pro. I dont care how much it costs. It should have top everything for a phone.


I also believe that all ipod/iphones from now on should include a multitouch display.





Thats just my opinions./
post #12 of 34
I hope not but fat chance, eh?
post #13 of 34
Well, we can be pretty sure that there's going to be something on the nano front. Apple gave away minis to students, then came out with the nano. Then they gave away 1G nanos to students and came out with the 2G nanos. Now they're giving the 2G nanos away....
post #14 of 34
Does an iPhone nano even make sense. The reason that I want the iPhone is wifi, email, browsing, interactive calendar, contacts, etc. don't think this would be workable on a nano.
post #15 of 34
Do these analysts actually analyze anything or just completely rely on 'unnamed sources'? iPhone 1.0 was a huge undertaking, it was responsible for pushing back Leopard 6 months and yet they will be ready to release another model in under 5 months?

No way. After all the feedback Apple are getting I'm sure the iPhone software engineers are busy working on updates for the current phone, which by the way has to be ready for release in Europe by Q4 and Asia in 08, no small undertaking. Also, many engineers will be working on Leopard to ensure its success in Q4, a product that will be available worldwide at launch. It will come under intense scrutiny from many journalists, bloggers and I suspect even the mainstream media will announce its arrival. Getting it right will be crucial to Apple's continual growth in its $1000+ hardware lines. The iPhone has demonstrated to many PC users the brilliance of Apple software engineering, Leopard needs to be great and I believe this is where Apple is focusing for the short term.

I have no doubt Apple are working on a another model, what form it takes is unpredictable as the current size of the iPhone is perfect for typing and navigation. I think the virtual keyboard in its current form becomes impractical at nano sizes. They'll come up with a great solution, but we won't see it till Q2-3 08.
post #16 of 34
I hope the current Shuffles, Nanos and big @$$ iPods stay around for a long time.

iPhones do not replace any of these in my mind, unless you have more money than brains.

iPhones should remain a separate product line with Mini and Business/Pro models.
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post #17 of 34
Apple would wait until after Jan 1 if they come out with iPhone Nano. They'll want to get all they can from the Holiday sales then have a new product to roll out after New Years.
post #18 of 34
I do not see this happening.

Leopard, new Macs, new iPods, and the iPhone was only released 11 days ago. However, this foolish rumour should help AAPL's stock value tomorrow.


PS: I thought we'd see a simple update to the iPhone and an Apple PR release of how many they've sold by now.
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post #19 of 34
There is no way Apple will replace the iPod nano with an iPhone nano.

That means anyone who wants a small form iPod would BE FORCED into a 2 year contract with AT&T. Highly unlikely.

I have no doubt that a smaller iPhone is in the works, but it won't replace the nano, it will be in addition to.. It will probably be just a basic phone and iPod without all the web/email and internet functions, but again, I really think Apple is going to focus on getting the current iPhone into Europe and Asia before we see any new models.
post #20 of 34
I've said it before and im gonna say it again... the best concept would be iPhone Shuffle with Phone Calls to Random Numbers from your address book

post #21 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dorotea View Post

Does an iPhone nano even make sense. The reason that I want the iPhone is wifi, email, browsing, interactive calendar, contacts, etc. don't think this would be workable on a nano.

Of course it does. However, it almost certainly won't have all of the above features or the big iPhone touch screen. I'd guess it would outsell the iPhone too as most people don't want an expensive big phone.

Sony Ericsson make the big fat P990 with all of the features of the iPhone (roughly) but they also make the ultraslim W880i Walkman phone (9.4mm thick 3G phone) for those people that don't need all the features of the P990.

Incidentally, before the latest round of SE updates to Symbian OS 9 on their phones, the Symbian based phones all had perfect syncing with iSync. It's partly why I still use a P910i (Symbian OS 7) instead of the OS 9 phones. And Opera Mini on the P910i is actually pretty good too.


If they don't make the iPhone Nano as wide as the full iPhone though, typing on it could be a little tricky, which makes me think it'll forgo the touch screen and have real number keys and be a more traditional phone form factor.
post #22 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

Of course it does. However, it almost certainly won't have all of the above features or the big iPhone touch screen. I'd guess it would outsell the iPhone too as most people don't want an expensive big phone.

I think this will emerge, eventually, but when do you think it will be available? Surely not in the next year.
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post #23 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

If they don't make the iPhone Nano as wide as the full iPhone though, typing on it could be a little tricky, which makes me think it'll forgo the touch screen and have real number keys and be a more traditional phone form factor.

If this 'iPhone Nano' did have a touch screen, aslong as the screen is as tall as the width of current iPhones you could go into landscape on the iPhone Nano and have the same space as most of the virtual keyboard input 'screens' on the current iPhone (bar Safari's landscape).

But then there's the width (height in landscape) issue, and being able to see not just the virtual keyboard but also what you're typing.
post #24 of 34
Luckily, Apple has invented the hand-shrinker ray, so that we'll be able to type on a screen the size of a business card.
post #25 of 34
Apple would be very dumb to go and tie their most popular product to a contract with a single provider... They'll also lose a large number of customers who just don't want their iPod and phone to be in one device (or they're happy with their existing phone).

Equally, people are going to want a phone that a) is similar to the iPhone (multi touch etc) b) does what their existing phone does. I'm not sure that Apple can get away with making a phone with only a scroll wheel - how do you send SMS messages? (that's vital - in Europe at least) I can see them just about getting away with the rotary dialing, because you don't have to enter a number that often.

So, if we see an iPhone Nano, I very much doubt we'll lose the iPod Nano as a consequence...
post #26 of 34
the iphone nano is only logical in the current paradigm of the phone market. . . which isn't that what apple is aiming to change with the iphone itself? it makes more sense to me to decrease the cost of the iphone over time and thus make it a more accesable product. i suppose they could separate the iphone "product lines" in the same way they separate "pro" and "consumer" with their computer lines.... but eliminating wifi, etc. sort of shuts down the whole paradigm shift of reinventing the phone, etc.

either way i think this report is bogus...and i hope it is because i'm about to recommit myself with tmobile because i'm not about to spend 600 bones on a phone to be with a carrier i have not had good experience with (although that was years ago).
post #27 of 34
This report is bogus: Apple is not going to introduce new versions of a product, when the original product would not even be availbale world-wide (Asia + parts of Europe).
I doubt that there will be phone product-ranges (like "nano" and "regular") any time soon at all, let alone an undressed version.
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post #28 of 34
I hope this is true, but I have my doubts. I am not spending 5 or 600 bucks on a phone AND switching over the the worst carrier. I have Verizon and even though they do have some bs, their service is amazing in any area I goto, I have never had a problem with them. I hope Apple does come out with a iPhone I would be able to use on my carrier, the smaller the better too, the iPhone now is HUGE.
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post #29 of 34
J.P. Morgan's Bill Shope disagrees with Kevin Chang's stance.
Quote:
We caution that the potential for a low-end, subsidized phone from Apple seems unlikely in the near term, Shope writes this morning. Perhaps Apple will choose to eventually replace its iPod family with phones over time, but it could be premature to assume this will happen in volume any time soon.

Shope notes that he has been unable to independently confirm the channel checks Chang cited as one reason for his call yesterday, so we are not yet convinced this is a likely event.

Shope says a lower-end iPhone is inevitable, but contends introducing it so soon would be unusual and highly risky. He contends Apple is likely to keep the iPhone and iPod as distinct business segments for as long as this makes economic sense.
post #30 of 34

I'm so sick of the "analyst" thing! All I can say is.... the word has it origin in mid 18th cent.: from modern Latin analis, from Latin anus. Ever since Apple has become the reborn darling of wall street, these forums aren't as fun as they used to be. They used to be full of "real" Apple enthusiasts, now every Tom, Dick and Harry is on these forums and they are ALL experts. Lame, just lame...
post #31 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dorotea View Post

Does an iPhone nano even make sense. The reason that I want the iPhone is wifi, email, browsing, interactive calendar, contacts, etc. don't think this would be workable on a nano.

Back when the original Nano came out about the same time as the Moto Rockr, the very first thing I said when I got my Nano was "THIS should have been the iTunes phone". When the rumors of an iPhone started getting serious, the one thing I hoped for was a Nano version. The current iPhone is really nice, and once it's available in Canada I'll probably get one. However, if I'm given a choice between the current version and a Nano version, I'm getting the Nano for sure.
post #32 of 34
Hey Kevin! You're Fired!
post #33 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by icibaqu View Post

the iphone nano is only logical in the current paradigm of the phone market. . . which isn't that what apple is aiming to change with the iphone itself? it makes more sense to me to decrease the cost of the iphone over time and thus make it a more accesable product. i suppose they could separate the iphone "product lines" in the same way they separate "pro" and "consumer" with their computer lines.... but eliminating wifi, etc. sort of shuts down the whole paradigm shift of reinventing the phone, etc.

either way i think this report is bogus...and i hope it is because i'm about to recommit myself with tmobile because i'm not about to spend 600 bones on a phone to be with a carrier i have not had good experience with (although that was years ago).

Sweet jebus, somebody talking sense. Bring me smelling salts.
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post #34 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

Of course it does. However, it almost certainly won't have all of the above features or the big iPhone touch screen. I'd guess it would outsell the iPhone too as most people don't want an expensive big phone.

Sony Ericsson make the big fat P990 with all of the features of the iPhone (roughly) but they also make the ultraslim W880i Walkman phone (9.4mm thick 3G phone) for those people that don't need all the features of the P990.

Incidentally, before the latest round of SE updates to Symbian OS 9 on their phones, the Symbian based phones all had perfect syncing with iSync. It's partly why I still use a P910i (Symbian OS 7) instead of the OS 9 phones. And Opera Mini on the P910i is actually pretty good too.


If they don't make the iPhone Nano as wide as the full iPhone though, typing on it could be a little tricky, which makes me think it'll forgo the touch screen and have real number keys and be a more traditional phone form factor.

So, having explicitly belittled real number keys and traditional form factors as why cell phones suck and everybody hates them, Apple's going to wrap a little Ives mojo around and bake a little iPod goodness into exactly that?
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