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S&P downgrades Apple shares to "Hold' on valuation

post #1 of 27
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Citing risk-reward considerations, analysts for Standard and Poor's Equity Research cut their rating on shares of Apple Inc. to "Hold" early Monday.

"We believe Apple's fundamentals remain strong on market-share gains in desktops and laptops, success with digital-media players and software, and notable inroads in the smartphone category," wrote analyst Scott Kessler.

As a result of these successes, the analyst said he believes Apple should trade at a greater premium to the price/earnings-to-growth rate of the S&P 500 Technology Sector. He therefore raised his 12-month target price on shares of the Cupertino-based company to $155 from $135.

Simultaniously, however, Kessler hedged long-term bets on the stock by cutting his rating to a "Hold."

"We think our downgrade is warranted by risk-reward considerations, especially with expectations high and Apple scheduled to report June-Q results on Wednesday," he wrote.

In late May, Standard & Poor's announced that Apple had joined its prestigious S&P 100 index of big blue-chip companies.
post #2 of 27
Tee hee! Silly analysts!

Let's see what drjjones has to say about this...

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #3 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Citing risk-reward considerations, analysts for Standard and Poor's Equity Research cut their rating on shares of Apple Inc. to "Hold" early Monday.

"We believe Apple's fundamentals remain strong on market-share gains in desktops and laptops, success with digital-media players and software, and notable inroads in the smartphone category," wrote analyst Scott Kessler.

As a result of these successes, the analyst said he believes Apple should trade at a greater premium to the price/earnings-to-growth rate of the S&P 500 Technology Sector. He therefore raised his 12-month target price on shares of the Cupertino-based company to $155 from $135.

Simultaniously, however, Kessler hedged long-term bets on the stock by cutting his rating to a "Hold."

"We think our downgrade is warranted by risk-reward considerations, especially with expectations high and Apple scheduled to report June-Q results on Wednesday," he wrote.

In late May, Standard & Poor's announced that Apple had joined its prestigious S&P 100 index of big blue-chip companies.

I think you need to look at their rating by StarMine analyst and see their accuracy at judging right was 10 percent of the time on judging recommendations on AAPL. That means they were WRONG 90 percent of the time lol on AAPL. Not a good record .
post #4 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by drjjones View Post

I think you need to look at their rating by StarMine analyst and see their accuracy at judging right was 10 percent of the time on judging recommendations on AAPL. That means they were WRONG 90 percent of the time lol on AAPL. Not a good record .

Somehow I knew you'd be right on top of this one...

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #5 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Somehow I knew you'd be right on top of this one...

New good news...Kardstadt stores will sell the iphone in Germany late this year... the stores hope by Christmas .No announced carrier yet . Onward and upward.
post #6 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Tee hee! Silly analysts!

Let's see what drjjones has to say about this...

You called that one. I don't even recognize this poster's name.
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #7 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by drjjones View Post



New good news...Kardstadt stores will sell the iphone in Germany late this year... the stores hope by Christmas .No announced carrier yet . Onward and upward.

Aha! There's a bump in AAPL... possibly due to this news...

Y'know, it would be really cool if AI were to cook up a floating chat tool to discuss AAPL matters... it works really well on www.icompositions.com and would be better suited to the moment-by-moment fluctuations in the stock market versus the "think/write/post/wait-for-response" time frames inherent in bulletin boards...

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #8 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Aha! There's a bump in AAPL... possibly due to this news...

Y'know, it would be really cool if AI were to cook up a floating chat tool to discuss AAPL matters... it works really well on www.icompositions.com and would be better suited to the moment-by-moment fluctuations in the stock market versus the "think/write/post/wait-for-response" time frames inherent in bulletin boards...

Agreed.
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #9 of 27
I think some of these people exist just to "apply the brakes" when the proverbial "They" feel like a stock is moving up too quickly . . .

Reality is not always a factor.
Journalism is publishing what someone doesn't want us to know; the rest is propaganda.
-Horacio Verbitsky (el perro), journalist (b. 1942)
Reply
Journalism is publishing what someone doesn't want us to know; the rest is propaganda.
-Horacio Verbitsky (el perro), journalist (b. 1942)
Reply
post #10 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Aha! There's a bump in AAPL... possibly due to this news...

Y'know, it would be really cool if AI were to cook up a floating chat tool to discuss AAPL matters..

That would be great!!
post #11 of 27
I have a humble suggestion for AI: Instead of this minute-by-minute set of analyst updates, why don't you guys please just provide us a once-a-week heads-up along the lines of "Here's what happened on the analyst front this week....".

Most of us here are not trading AAPL based on AI's updates of analyst recommendations (heaven help those who are......).

There are SO MANY investing-type forums where this sort of drivel is constantly hyperventilated upon. Why does AI have to stoop to this, and just add to the noise-to-signal ratio?
post #12 of 27
I'm OK with reporting what the analysts are saying. I tend to disagree with most of it, but it's our choice to discuss or not.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #13 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I'm OK with reporting what the analysts are saying. I tend to disagree with most of it, but it's our choice to discuss or not.

I am "OK" with it too, and it is fun stuff in small measure. It is just that the frequency of it makes it feels like Gresham's Law is at work .....
post #14 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by drjjones View Post

I think you need to look at their rating by StarMine analyst and see their accuracy at judging right was 10 percent of the time on judging recommendations on AAPL. That means they were WRONG 90 percent of the time lol on AAPL. Not a good record .

How? It looks like another paid service.

http://yahoo.starmine.com/?page_set=login

Mac Rumors has an analyst tracker, but how to get to it is anything but obvious, I forget how to find it.
post #15 of 27
Oops, double post.
post #16 of 27
What's ridiculous is that the 12-month target still has a low end of $135, below the current price. I can see shares dropping if earnings aren't as spectacular as expected Wednesday, but does anyone actually think they could be below $140 at the end of the year?
post #17 of 27
Most analusts are akin to horse race track touts. They're right about one third of the time ,if that, and not worth reporting. If AI wants to provide some real financial insight, report on what hard core, cut-throat stock and option trader/investors like Eric Bolling and Pete Najerian (or pick your own guy) are doing. They have their finger on the pulse of the market. These guys live and die by actual trading and investing in stocks. They don't live in walnut adorned offices spouting kaka about stock XYZ, usually after the fact, i.e. Apple's target price is $135 after it has already gone thru $140, The Shawn Wu's of the world would go broke if they actuallly had to trade for a living. Please AI, spare us the meaningless ramblings of Tom/Dick/Harry "Analyst".
post #18 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Most of us here are not trading AAPL based on AI's updates of analyst recommendations (heaven help those who are......).

LOL! It really is unbelievable how VERY bad these so called 'expert' analysts are.
post #19 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by potterhead4 View Post

What's ridiculous is that the 12-month target still has a low end of $135, below the current price. I can see shares dropping if earnings aren't as spectacular as expected Wednesday, but does anyone actually think they could be below $140 at the end of the year?

There are plenty. If there weren't, then Apple wouldn't be at 143 right now. It would be far higher. Remember for every buyer there is a seller out there. It certainly may seem like Apple can do nothing but go up, but at some point everyone who wants to own Apple will own all they want to own, and at that point, the people selling will start to make progress. I'm very worried that the stock might go down after earnings, no matter how good the are. I think the market has already assumed a huge earnings blowout, and if that's the case, then there's really nothing Apple can do to push its stock higher during the earnings report.
post #20 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

There are plenty. If there weren't, then Apple wouldn't be at 143 right now. It would be far higher. Remember for every buyer there is a seller out there. It certainly may seem like Apple can do nothing but go up, but at some point everyone who wants to own Apple will own all they want to own, and at that point, the people selling will start to make progress. I'm very worried that the stock might go down after earnings, no matter how good the are. I think the market has already assumed a huge earnings blowout, and if that's the case, then there's really nothing Apple can do to push its stock higher during the earnings report.

I beg to strongly disagree. No one knows for sure what AT&T is paying Apple per phone and per contract. This will whet your appetite.

http://www.thestreet.com/_htmlatb/ne.../10369581.html

"People close to the companies tell TheStreet.com that AT&T is paying Apple a bounty of between $150 and $200 per phone -- plus $9 a month per phone over the life of the typical two-year customer contract."

If these numbers are close to reality, no one has them baked into the current price.An upside surprise would not be impossible on earnings day. Watch for high volume and look to see if there are high number upside block trades which would indicate Hedge Fund and Institutional buys.
post #21 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

I beg to strongly disagree. No one knows for sure what AT&T is paying Apple per phone and per contract.


Exactly. But there are plenty of people out there that readily believe the most optimistic view. And that's why the stock has gone up so much in the past few months. If that amount isn't true, then SOMEBODY is going to be disappointed and sell.


Quote:
If these numbers are close to reality, no one has them baked into the current price.An upside surprise would not be impossible on earnings day. Watch for high volume and look to see if there are high number upside block trades which would indicate Hedge Fund and Institutional buys.

What, you think you're the only person who read that article today? Gee, why didn't the stock go up 10% when it hit? Maybe it's already baked in? Nah! The market's dumb and only people who read AI know how great Apple is doing right now!

Want to buy my shares for 160 in 3 weeks?
post #22 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Exactly. But there are plenty of people out there that readily believe the most optimistic view. And that's why the stock has gone up so much in the past few months. If that amount isn't true, then SOMEBODY is going to be disappointed and sell.




What, you think you're the only person who read that article today? Gee, why didn't the stock go up 10% when it hit? Maybe it's already baked in? Nah! The market's dumb and only people who read AI know how great Apple is doing right now!

Want to buy my shares for 160 in 3 weeks?

Touchy,touchy,touchy. And yes, I think many people on AI did not read that article because this is a computer site not a financial site.

I don't much care what the price is on thursday or 3 weeks from now. If it does happen to dip 5% after earnings (like GOOG), I'll buy a some more. It will be a gift. I think Apple's fiscal year 2007 revenues will be around $25 billion with an EPS of ~$3.80; fiscal year 2008 revenues will be around $32 billion and an EPS ~$4.50-$4.60. Fiscal year 2009, revenues will be around $38 billion with an EPS ~ $5.50-5.75. Using a conservative multiple of 35, thats a share price range of about $140-$200. This is all guess work of course but the whole product line is so strong, I'm comfortable with these estimates.
post #23 of 27
Nice of this analyst to up his price target from $10 BELOW curent share price to $10 above.

Considering that 80% of these so called professionals cannot even match the averages, it's a wonder they still have jobs. Where would you be in your industry if you delivered sub average work 80% of the time. Or if 80% of the people in your profession couldn't even perform better than a layman doing your work. Sort of takes the incentive out of paying a Professional fee, doesn't it?
post #24 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

I don't much care what the price is on thursday or 3 weeks from now. If it does happen to dip 5% after earnings (like GOOG), I'll buy a some more. It will be a gift. I think Apple's fiscal year 2007 revenues will be around $25 billion with an EPS of ~$3.80; fiscal year 2008 revenues will be around $32 billion and an EPS ~$4.50-$4.60. Fiscal year 2009, revenues will be around $38 billion with an EPS ~ $5.50-5.75. Using a conservative multiple of 35, thats a share price range of about $140-$200. This is all guess work of course but the whole product line is so strong, I'm comfortable with these estimates.

Hope you caught this bit of news and factored it into your estimates:

"The company said sales of the Apple iPhone "have been robust." AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers in the last two days of the quarter. "Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels," AT&T said."

Not good when everyone's estimate for iPhone sales in the first two days was too high...
post #25 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Hope you caught this bit of news and factored it into your estimates:

"The company said sales of the Apple iPhone "have been robust." AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers in the last two days of the quarter. "Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels," AT&T said."

Not good when everyone's estimate for iPhone sales in the first two days was too high...

I think we still don't know the real numbers are. And for me, the short term here is not relevant. It will be fun though.

In any event, the next 2 days will be a wild ride. Pre-market, I see one block sale of 42188 shares at $140 in AAPL and one block sale of 1,944,200 shares in T at $40. This is going to be more fun than a roller coaster ride at Universal.
post #26 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

I think we still don't know the real numbers are. And for me, the short term here is not relevant. It will be fun though.

What sort of "real" numbers are you looking for? The "good" ones? Or maybe you think a whole ton of people took their iPhone home and didn't activate it for 3 days That the true out the door sales of iPhones were 500,000 as some suggested, and that exactly 356,000 people went home and sat on their paperweight iPhone for 3 days? These are the real numbers, and for all the talk in the past few days about how someone's "model" did not factor in this or that, I would think factoring-in iPhone sales below EVERY model would be something you'd want to do.

Saying "that's not important to me, I'm thinking long term" sounds just like what a lot of people were saying while the bubble was popping a few years ago.

Just be careful. Don't assume that because you read a message board or three where EVERYONE is a fan of Apple and owns Apple stock, that you are getting a balanced view of the company's performance and prospects.

I'm hoping to get out of Apple today. I have it in an IRA so don't have to worry about gains taxes, and I'm pretty confident that I'll have a chance to buy more shares for the same money in the near future.
post #27 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

What sort of "real" numbers are you looking for? The "good" ones? Or maybe you think a whole ton of people took their iPhone home and didn't activate it for 3 days That the true out the door sales of iPhones were 500,000 as some suggested, and that exactly 356,000 people went home and sat on their paperweight iPhone for 3 days? These are the real numbers, and for all the talk in the past few days about how someone's "model" did not factor in this or that, I would think factoring-in iPhone sales below EVERY model would be something you'd want to do.

Saying "that's not important to me, I'm thinking long term" sounds just like what a lot of people were saying while the bubble was popping a few years ago.

Just be careful. Don't assume that because you read a message board or three where EVERYONE is a fan of Apple and owns Apple stock, that you are getting a balanced view of the company's performance and prospects.

I'm hoping to get out of Apple today. I have it in an IRA so don't have to worry about gains taxes, and I'm pretty confident that I'll have a chance to buy more shares for the same money in the near future.

Anecdotally, I did not activate my phone till sunday after a friday the 29th purchase. The second one I bought for my nephew was not activated till later in the week.

I read a lot more than AAPL boards. I follow options activity as well as stock-centric news. As an investor, limiting oneself to fanboy evangelist sites like AI is bad for your wallet. The real numbers in AAPL's case are the ones they report --if they will do so, definitely not a guarantee based on their track record. Add to that the accounting method they have chosen to report iPhone earnings ,it will not be easy to ferret out the iPhone earnings thru the end of June. Nothing will be known for sure about early July iPhone earnings unless they choose to divulge such info which again is unlikely. The most important info for me on the conference call (which I will listen to as always) are the sales of other products particularly the computers. AAPL is not a one trick pony (iPhone) which makes the stock attractive for a long term investor.
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