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AT&T: 146,000 Apple iPhones activated in first two days - Page 3

post #81 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

One of the last trades of the day was a buy of 153000+ shares at ~$134.40. That's a Hedge fund or an institutional buyer. I bought Call options at a $135 strike price which means on Aug.17th, I have the right but not the obligation to buy AAPL at $135. Sweet.

You rock. I gotta learn how to do that...

134.88...

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post #82 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

Not so fast, anti-fanboy. Many of the people in the Apple store I went to bought 2 phones, 1 for themselves and 1 as a gift or to sell. I didn't activate right away nor did my my nephew who got my second phone. Buying 2 phones was commonplace if one believes the press (take that with a grain of salt) covering the sales on opening weekend.

Heh yeah, and you think all those people that bought two went right to UPS and shipped them?

What about the people who brought them home and gave them to the person they were buying for, who activated right away. Just how many people do you REALLY think spent all day waiting in line for something that was not going to be activated in the next 36 hours?

And yeah, plenty of other people bought them to resell. I bet a good 30% of the initial day's sales were for that purpose. And guess what? ALL those came back to the store, because the resale market was colder than ice. You couldn't sell one for more than retail+tax because they were available EVERYWHERE.
post #83 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

They could. It just depends on how aggressive they want to be. I base my opinion on other companies that I've invested in in the past that were specifically asked that question, and stated that they did not recognize payment until the goods went out, not when the payment is received. Operating on accrual basis, you do not recognize a payment when you get it, you recognize it when you earn it. You don't close the books on that sale until it is out the door.

I don't see how it's a big deal though, most of the people who really wanted on that weekend bought it in the store, since nearly every store still had stock all through the weekend. Remember only Tuesday did the stock start running out at some locations, and in most cases came back on line the next day (all those returns!)

I agree that in a technical sense online sales should not be booked for that weekend. Apple may or may not divulge what has happened this quarter. I disagree, however, with your statement that people who wanted it that weekend waited on the pavement. Most people who buy high-end Apple products have the money because they work. The very last thing my wife and I were going to do with our Friday night or weekend was wait outside of a store. Although we wanted the phone and purchased online that weekend, we lacked the compulsiveness to camp out. I suspect that there are a whole lot of people just like us. Because of good impulse control we had the money to buy to phones and the discipline to wait to have them delivered to us. Accordingly, AT&T's numbers are somewhat irrelevant and their significance certainly overblown.
post #84 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by JLambros View Post

Accordingly, AT&T's numbers are somewhat irrelevant and their significance certainly overblown.

I'll do you one better! ATT's low activation numbers were great news! Low ATT activation numbers mean HIGH sales numbers!
post #85 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by JLambros View Post

...Accordingly, AT&T's numbers are somewhat irrelevant and their significance certainly overblown.

True dat! The hue and cry over these numbers for two days is overblown. The iPhone numbers that Apple reports for the THIRD quarter (Jul 1 - Sep 30) will be VERY important - for AAPL, T, and all who have their money down on either or both stocks.
post #86 of 132
So its not all just about the iPhone guys, there are other things going on in the world..

Quote:
Shares fell sharply on both sides of the Atlantic and the dollar tumbled to a 15-year low against leading currencies yesterday, as world markets continued to be shaken by fears over US sub-prime mortgages.

The Dow Jones industrial average sank about 100 points as concerns grew that weakness in risky mortgages was spreading to supposedly safer prime loans, potentially sparking a credit crunch in the US economy.


This is a new market for Apple but tradionally mobile carriers base their sales figures on activations, nearly every mobile phone bought in the world would have been activated the day it was purchased, it is a fool proof method and true indication of forcasted revenue over the life of the contract. I do not understand why someone would buy an phone and not activate it right away it just makes no sense at all. Its like buying a new car and taking the wheels off it.

It think the opening week would have been a strange one, lots and lots of Apple Fanboys buying one for no other reason than it has an Apple on the front regardless of whether they need a phone or not. Things would have settled down by now and pretty much without exceptions activations will equal sales and therefore AT&T's figures for activations will become the best way of measuring sales figures.
post #87 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Heh yeah, and you think all those people that bought two went right to UPS and shipped them?

What about the people who brought them home and gave them to the person they were buying for, who activated right away. Just how many people do you REALLY think spent all day waiting in line for something that was not going to be activated in the next 36 hours?

And yeah, plenty of other people bought them to resell. I bet a good 30% of the initial day's sales were for that purpose. And guess what? ALL those came back to the store, because the resale market was colder than ice. You couldn't sell one for more than retail+tax because they were available EVERYWHERE.

I can only speak for myself. It was a gorgeous friday night on a beautiful summer weekend wih the 4th of July upcoming. I was in no hurry to activate, just to get both phones (my nephew's 21st was on 7/2). Some were in fact sold on eBay (~16,000 completed listings as of one week later, about half of which were consumated). Another 250 were sold to UK buyers at ridiculously high prices (thank you cheap dollar). I setup specialized searches to track ths stuff on ebay because I was curious. Of course with all eBay sales of such gadgets, fraud is epidemic so the actual number of transactions is unknowable.
post #88 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

This solidifies the observation that Gene Munster doesn't know jack. Pretty weak projections on his part.

But Cramer was pretty close... he said 135, it went to 134.15.. I like the "we sold 1 million in 9 days "idea. 550,00 day one and two or one million in 9 days sounds right ,,..want to bet it isn't 140,000 lol. Buy now it wont be that low long tomorrow i believe .
post #89 of 132
-most folks who were going to activate ASAP were bought on fri. night
-many others (5% guess) bought 2+ for resell (won't be activating anytime soon)
-others (5% guesstimate) bought 2+ one for them and the other(s) as gifts for family & friends (gifts won't be activated right away)
-many ( 10% another wild guess) bought 2+ , the extras being for all the people that had been watching all the hype (e.g. long lines,..etc..) that gave $$$ to a friend, co-worker,family member, apple soldier, to buy one for them.
-a few (2%) were paid by their bosses or wealthy individuals, or just plain ol' busy people tostand in line and by it for them.
- a few (0.02% tiny guess) for analyst's tech underlings, and companies wishing to take them apart
to analysis and testing ( won't be activated either for sure).

Lets say there are 145k (activations)
lets say 60k who bought didn't activate until after midnight sunday a.m.
lets say there are 30k more buyers who couldn't activate until sunday because of at&t glitches.
lets say 50k more buyers(like me) got fed up when they heard, " were are experiencing high call volume at this time, your expected what time is........", so they hung up and decided to call back on sunday or something
lets say there are 50k more buyers who didn't activate because they had to set up itunes first
+ 10k that bought to resell
+ 30k gifts
+ lets say 150k iphone were sold online (since they were open the whole 30 hours). won't receive for weeks

=====so i'm guessing ====525,000 sold
the heavy weights pulled a big one on everyone today. So if you are one of those that got scared and sold, lesson learned.
they knew people would key in on "activations" thinking its close to the sales #
post #90 of 132
Does Anyone Out There Have Any Idea What The Actual % Of Sales That The Online Apple Store Accounts For ?????????
post #91 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by drjjones View Post

But Cramer was pretty close... he said 135, it went to 134.15.. I like the "we sold 1 million in 9 days "idea. 550,00 day one and two or one million in 9 days sounds right ,,..want to bet it isn't 140,000 lol. Buy now it wont be that low long tomorrow i believe .

I think you're right. Might be a good idea to put in another buy order at 130 if it dips again in the morning...

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post #92 of 132
I Almost Forgot What About The Online At&t Iphone Sales. Does At&t Sell Iphones Online?? That's A Good Way To Hide #s Stating Activations Only, Who Knows How Many They Sold Online.
post #93 of 132
FROM BUSINESS 2.0:
"Switchers. A good percentage of iPhone buyers "more than 40 percent," according to AT&T were switching from another carrier, or were new cell phone users. Quite a few of them probably ported their phone numbers to their iPhones. The number porting process can take hours, on top of the time it takes to activate the phone."







;
post #94 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Doesn't look like AAPL will go lower than 138 today... yet....

Update: Just went to 136 1/2! Guess I bought me some more AAPL!

We were both wrong. I am buying heavily in the AM. This really surprised me.
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post #95 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

We were both wrong. I am buying heavily in the AM. This really surprised me.

Well, to be fair, I don't think any of us saw the whole market taking a dump today... Jim Cramer did (the bastard) but I never listen to him.

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post #96 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Well, to be fair, I don't think any of us saw the whole market taking a dump today... Jim Cramer did (the bastard) but I never listen to him.

I'm just glad I canceled by $137 limit order yesterday afternoon. I think I'll put one insomewhere between $133 and $135 depending on the after hours trading. I wonder if Apple's earning tomorrow will rebound this to a respectable level.

I don't mind these fluctuations. I even expect this extreme from time to time, but I hate when I have a feeling and don't follow through with it. I was contemplating selling on Monday and waiting for a few days before buying back in.
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post #97 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Well, to be fair, I don't think any of us saw the whole market taking a dump today... Jim Cramer did (the bastard) but I never listen to him.

I just heard that apple gets paid $150 to $200 per iphone and a $9 a month fee from ATT . Aaron Task,, reporter,, and Scot Moritz but not sure of spelling . On street .com . The 7/23/07 show on ipod audio. Cramer says buy back now.
post #98 of 132
I'm going to repeat what I've been saying now in several threads. The sales over the first weekend are NOT meaningful. The sales over the next 90 days ARE meaningful. Unless Apple sold 10 million phones that first weekend, the next 90 days will tell if Apple will met their sales goal, IMO. There was way to much 'speculation' in those phones sold the first week for it to be a meaningful gauge of demand.
post #99 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

I'm going to repeat what I've been saying now in several threads. The sales over the first weekend are NOT meaningful. The sales over the next 90 days ARE meaningful. Unless Apple sold 10 million phones that first weekend, the next 90 days will tell if Apple will met their sales goal, IMO. There was way to much 'speculation' in those phones sold the first week for it to be a meaningful gauge of demand.


What will be meaningful is at 5 pm EST. Wednesday.
post #100 of 132
As Q2 only had 30 iPhone selling/activation "hours", 146.000 in 30 hours equals a rate of 1.35 iPhone activations per second!

If they continue at this rate. Q3 will sport an amazing number of 10.5 Million iPhone activations and that would mean the goal for the end of 2008 is already reached.
I would say these numbers are already very impressive.
post #101 of 132
Quote:
As Q2 only had 30 iPhone selling/activation "hours", 146.000 in 30 hours equals a rate of 1.35 iPhone activations per second!

If they continue at this rate. Q3 will sport an amazing number of 10.5 Million iPhone activations and that would mean the goal for the end of 2008 is already reached.
I would say these numbers are already very impressive.

Nice maths, i am sure on your planet that all makes complete sense.

However those of us on Earth would understand that the huge demand in sales during the first week were mostly caused by Apple Fanboys who bought the phone without waiting to see how good it actually was or performed and would have queued all night to buy a empty box if it had an Apple logo imprinted on it. It is natural that after the first week and all the excitment has died down that sales would return to normal. Your calculations have totally failed to take this into consideration.

I would imagine that if they managed 150k activations in the first 2 days, they may well have got through another 300k the following week, I would see that figure drop dramaticly after that, maybe even 50k a week would be more likely.
post #102 of 132
No matter what your position on the recent iPhone"math" and the company in general, listen to the conference call today at 5pm EDT (2pm PDT).

http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq307/

For those who have never listened to a CC, it is a real education. In Apple's case, It is highly structured and well orchestrated. If it goes as usual, Peter Oppenheimer , Chief Financial Officer, will lead the call with assistance from Tim Cook, Chief Operating Officer and other lower ranking employees. Do not expect SJ to be on the call. For large companies, it would be highly unusual for the CEO to be part of the presentation. . The key analyst consensus numbers are : Top line revenue of $5.32 billion, bottom line profits of $654 million, or 72 cents a share. After going through the quarterly financials in detail a Q&A period will follow wherein selected analysts can ask questions, usually by phone. Some will ask "puff ball" questions while others will ask tough ones that may or may not be answered fully. Apple typically provides little, vague or no guidance for upcoming quarters i.e. they practice UPOD, Under promise & over deliver. Some analysts may try hard to force Peter and Tim to predict upcoming sales in different categories, for example, iPhone sales in the UK next December (yeah, good luck with that one).

If you miss the CC, the webcast requiring Quick time will be available on the Apple site afterwards.


EDIT: As of 8:30 am, AAPL looks to open @ about $138.
post #103 of 132
The trading in AAPL is fast and furiuos in early morning trading. Huge volume and lots of 1000+ block trades. Fasten your seat belts as this is going to be a wild ride today culminating with the conference call.
post #104 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by oberpongo View Post

As Q2 only had 30 iPhone selling/activation "hours", 146.000 in 30 hours equals a rate of 1.35 iPhone activations per second!

If they continue at this rate. Q3 will sport an amazing number of 10.5 Million iPhone activations and that would mean the goal for the end of 2008 is already reached.
I would say these numbers are already very impressive.

Why not just use the first hour or so, when 50% of the total was probably sold to everyone waiting in line? Say, 50,000 in the first hour. That works out to 13 per second! At this rate, they sold 100 million iPhones in Q3! Wooohooooo!
post #105 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by murphyweb;

Nice maths, i am sure on your planet that all makes complete sense.

However those of us on Earth would understand that the huge demand in sales during the first week were mostly caused by Apple Fanboys who bought the phone without waiting to see how good it actually was or performed and would have queued all night to buy a empty box if it had an Apple logo imprinted on it. It is natural that after the first week and all the excitment has died down that sales would return to normal. Your calculations have totally failed to take this into consideration.

I would imagine that if they managed 150k activations in the first 2 days, they may well have got through another 300k the following week, I would see that figure drop dramaticly after that, maybe even 50k a week would be more likely.

The Math was done just to give you marsians an idea of the performance in the first 30 hours. Of course it will go down in the weeks that follow, but one million in the next quarter should be possible
post #106 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by oberpongo View Post

The Math was done just to give you marsians an idea of the performance in the first 30 hours. Of course it will go down in the weeks that follow, but one million in the next quarter should be possible

Martians has a T, not an S.

And did you think anyone didn't understand that even 100,000 iPhones in the first two days is a lot?
post #107 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

No matter what your position on the recent iPhone "math"...

Believe it or not, the word "maths" is also correct, but not recognized as such in the US.

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post #108 of 132
Although Apple is amortizing the iPhone revenue over 24 months, I assume they will recognize immediately the income from accessories purchased with the iPhone such as cases, headphone adapters, etc.

Also although they recognize the revneue over 24 months, that is another $250M sitting in the bank earning interest.

Eventually they will start selling iPhone in Canada / Europe / South America / Asia. More revenue.

Also I would expect an uptick in revenue from the iTunes store, esp for video from both iPhone and AppleTV. More revenue. ( I know that I have personnally started making video purchased recently.)

I assume Apple will eventually come out with games for the iPhone and ringtones. They've got 500,000+ iPhone users who would probably spend $5/per game.

Some percentage of new iPhone users may buy a Mac.

Also, when Leopard comes out, that revenue should go straight to the bottom line.

With more stores opening and leveraging BestBuys locations, that should also drive some incremental revenue.

Future looks bright, gotta wear shades!
post #109 of 132
One more hour, guys, and it's showtime!!
post #110 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamraj View Post

One more hour, guys, and it's showtime!!

2 hours. You're getting ahead of yourself.

137.2...

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post #111 of 132
I'm in NYC. The fireworks begin for me at 4:00 pm when "After-hours" activity begins!!

40 mins to showtime!!

138.16
post #112 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamraj View Post

I'm in NYC. The fireworks begin for me at 4:00 pm when "After-hours" activity begins!!

40 mins to showtime!!

138.16

Hold on to your knickers!

137.54 ....

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post #113 of 132
The last trade of the day was again a huge buy of 73253 shares at ~$137.10.
post #114 of 132
AAPL stock halted.

As of 4:28, no reports released yet.

PM activity was around $138.40
post #115 of 132
Report just released. Impressive numbers for Q3. Stock still Halted.

CUPERTINO, Calif., July 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2007 third quarter ended June 30, 2007. The Company posted revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $4.37 billion and net quarterly profit of $472 million, or $.54 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.9 percent, up from 30.3 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 40 percent of the quarter's revenue.

Apple shipped 1,764,000 Macintosh® computers, representing 33 percent growth over the year-ago quarter and exceeding the previous company record for quarterly Mac® shipments by over 150,000. The Company also sold 9,815,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 21 percent growth over the year-ago quarter.

"We're thrilled to report the highest June quarter revenue and profit in Apple's history, along with the highest quarterly Mac sales ever," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "iPhone is off to a great start -- we hope to sell our one- millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter of sales -- and our new product pipeline is very strong."

"We are very pleased to report strong financial results including cash flow from operations exceeding $1.2 billion for the quarter," said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's CFO. "Looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter of 2007, we expect revenue of about $5.7 billion and earnings per diluted share of about $.65."

Apple will provide live streaming of its Q3 2007 financial results conference call utilizing QuickTime®, Apple's standards-based technology for live and on-demand audio and video streaming. The live webcast will begin at 2:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, July 25, 2007 at www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq307/ and will also be available for replay.
post #116 of 132
270,000 sold per Apple's numbers. Just under 2x the activations reoprted by AT&T
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post #117 of 132
5:55 pm

In PM activity: AAPL @ $151.

Buyers to Sellers ratio is 3:1

Tomorrow stock will be up big because number of buyers will increase. All analysts will up their price targets. Also note that Apple said their "new product pipeline is very strong."

For those of you who've been holding back on AAPL - Still NOT LATE to hop on the money train!!

post #118 of 132
Just finished listening to the conference call. AAPL gives new meaning to the term UPOD. They are guiding 65 cents eps for the next quarter which no one on planet earth believes.Also, they just won't divulge financial breakdowns of their line items. This frustrates the hell out of the analysts. THe most often used phrase was " we'll provide more guidance on that when we report in October (NOT!).
post #119 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by lfe2211 View Post

AAPL gives new meaning to the term UPOD. They are guiding 65 cents eps for the next quarter which no one on planet earth believes.

They've been known for UPODing. But it's kinda understood by one and all that those numbers are just sand-bagging. Hence analysts set their own estimates which are higher than Apple's forecast.

Nevertheless, all's well that ends well!
post #120 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamraj View Post

They've been known for UPODing. But it's kinda understood by one and all that those numbers are just sand-bagging. Hence analysts set their own estimates which are higher than Apple's forecast.

Nevertheless, all's well that ends well!

On this CC, they took UPODing to a whole new level. They are the masters.
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