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Analyst claims iPhone demand slowing but 3G model in cards - Page 2

post #41 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I'd like some more 'color' from this report. Betcha Ittai Ittai Kidron only visited one store near CIBC, and only for an hour at lunchtime.

The Apple Store I visited had a steady stream of people leaving with an iPhone or an iPod... and I was there only for 20 minutes!

The Santa Monica store , here in California, was packed and lots of people were buying iPhones or accessories for same.
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post #42 of 104
Someone better check on spamsandwich. He hasn't made a post in 5 minutes.
post #43 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

And Sony Ericsson's W880i says that's a load of bollocks.

Care to elaborate or be a bit more specific?
post #44 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I know - in fact it was just people buying the excitement and now selling the news. I was just trying to point out that one should be careful not to look through a biased filter. Anyone who thinks that the run to 145 was based on "real" things while the drop today was somehow concocted is totally missing the boat.

So this news coming out before earnings are based on "real" things?

The run-up to $145 and the $8+ decline on AAPL today is indeed nothing but an opportunity to make money to some people. Lately, some have been so predictable so why not enjoy the ride
post #45 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bert25 View Post

So this news coming out before earnings are based on "real" things?

I don't get what you mean. In the past 3 weeks there have been hundreds of news reports and analyst reports which pushed the stock up from 120 to 145. None of that stock movement was based on Apple fundamentals, it was based on hopes and dreams. Now when some of those hopes and dreams start to deflate, the stock goes down. That's how it works, and it will happen later this week again.

Quote:
The run-up to $145 and the $8+ decline on AAPL today is indeed nothing but an opportunity to make money to some people. Lately, some have been so predictable so why not enjoy the ride

It's an opportunity for ALL people to make money

You just have to be willing to separate yourself from the emotion of loving the company.
post #46 of 104
Celebrate the bad news because it means that we will be getting more features in the future. If purchases flatline, then the only way to get sales charged up is to 1. Lower the price and 2. Add features.
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post #47 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I don't get what you mean.

News bias goes both ways, the reason I wouldn't call CIBCs report "3G iPhone Possible This Year" and demand for the iPhone has seen a significant decline in the pat 10 days prior to official report as "real" news. Some will react to this and sell, as much as another will buy AAPL on optimistic news.

Quote:
In the past 3 weeks there have been hundreds of news reports and analyst reports which pushed the stock up from 120 to 145. None of that stock movement was based on Apple fundamentals, it was based on hopes and dreams. Now when some of those hopes and dreams start to deflate, the stock goes down. That's how it works, and it will happen later this week again.

It's an opportunity for ALL people to make money

You just have to be willing to separate yourself from the emotion of loving the company.

True, on the flip side, those that short the stock hopes for AAPL to go back down to it's original IPO

You probably don't hold AAPL long as you seem to see the glass as half-empty. I tend to believe AAPL have a lot of future upside potential but I do sell some when things gets a little too far ahead so I can buy back later
post #48 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bert25 View Post

You probably don't hold AAPL long as you seem to see the glass as half-empty. I tend to believe AAPL have a lot of future upside potential but I do sell some when things gets a little too far ahead so I can buy back later

I don't see the glass as half empty at all. I see the stock as too high. You must admit that a stock can be too high, right? If it was 200 today instead of 135, would you sell? What about 300? Surely there is a price at which you would say (publicly, risking the shame it would entail) "Apple is not worth this much money" and sell. Right?
post #49 of 104
When reading the stock availability levels from Apple stores, and noticing that more stock is available, how does the "analyst" 'know' this is because Apple are selling less, and not because Apple has ramped up production?
post #50 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by britwithgoodteeth View Post

Someone better check on spamsandwich. He hasn't made a post in 5 minutes.

...

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post #51 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

And Sony Ericsson's W880i says that's a load of bollocks.

Where do get this from. The spec page doesn't even address network access, only talk time which is much less data/battery intensive. Actually the Video call time is more indicative of the high-speed access. I'm easily getting 5 hours of intensive web/chat(web)/mail access.

Performance\t\tTalk time Standby time Video call
(up to)\t (up to) (up to)

UMTS 2100\t\t6 hours 30 min\t\t425 hours 0 min\t\t 1 hours 30 min
GSM 900\t\t6 hours 30 min\t\t425 hours 0 min\t\t -
GSM 1800\t\t6 hours 30 min\t\t425 hours 0 min\t\t -
GSM 1900\t\t6 hours 30 min\t\t425 hours 0 min\t\t -


Sorry couldn't figure out how to do a table.
post #52 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I don't see the glass as half empty at all. I see the stock as too high. You must admit that a stock can be too high, right? If it was 200 today instead of 135, would you sell? What about 300? Surely there is a price at which you would say (publicly, risking the shame it would entail) "Apple is not worth this much money" and sell. Right?

So how high is too high now, Cameron? If you really knew the answer to that, you'd own the stock market.

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post #53 of 104
I blame being exclusive with AT&T in the decline of sales.

As much as I hate to say this, the iPhone was not prepared for this type of network (yet). Almost as if we humans have surpassed the equator of technology, and the iPhone sits right below. I'm not basing this by comparison to another product, but the fact that it fell short on a lot of general cell phone necessities.

I almost feel that 10 years ago we had a surplus of technology (mostly due to ignorance) and now it's spread like wildfire...technology can't keep up with our expectations. The lowest common denominator for "tech-savvy" personality, is a lot different than it was long ago
post #54 of 104
<----Staying short!
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post #55 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I don't see the glass as half empty at all. I see the stock as too high. You must admit that a stock can be too high, right? If it was 200 today instead of 135, would you sell? What about 300? Surely there is a price at which you would say (publicly, risking the shame it would entail) "Apple is not worth this much money" and sell. Right?

I already did. I sold some last week (I jumped the gun) and would've sold more yesterday if I wasn't so busy at work and missed Cramers' sell recommendation I will probably buy back tomorrow somewhere between $130-$135 or, if I'm feeling lucky, Thursday
post #56 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bert25 View Post

I already did. I sold some last week (I jumped the gun) and would've sold more yesterday if I wasn't so busy at work and missed Cramers' sell recommendation I will probably buy back tomorrow somewhere between $130-$135 or, if I'm feeling lucky, Thursday

Aha! Now we have the real reason for the run up and the sell-off! Cosmo!... I mean, Cramer!

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post #57 of 104
Quote:
I've told everyone who's asked me why I don't have one that it's because I'm waiting for 3G. So I guess now you can't say you never heard anyone say that, huh

"I so far haven't heard anyone with an iPhone say they wish it had 3G." As in anyone who currently owns and uses the iPhone. I've heard plenty of people who don't own the iPhone make all types of complaints about it.
post #58 of 104
From Steve Jobs

"When we looked at 3G, the chipsets are not quite mature, in the sense that they're not low-enough power for what we were looking for. They were not integrated enough, so they took up too much physical space. We cared a lot about battery life and we cared a lot about physical size. Down the road, I'm sure some of those tradeoffs will become more favorable towards 3G but as of now we think we made a pretty good doggone decision."


Results from Anandtech test between 3G on a Blackjack vs WiFi on iPhone.

Without a doubt, current 3G implementations do require more space and consume more power than simply outfitting a phone with support for EDGE. Using the Samsung Blackjack as an example, turning on 3G reduces battery life by around 25% under web/email use. The biggest impact of all is, surprisingly enough, talk time; with 3G enabled, the Blackjack's talk time is cut in half, with absolutely no benefit realized from the higher bandwidth standard.

At the same time, Apple's choice to include 802.11b/g support in the iPhone makes a lot of sense. Battery life actually increases with Wi-Fi over EDGE whenever the data connection is being used, not to mention that performance goes up tremendously as well.

The iPhone's biggest selling point is its UI, and Apple seems to have made the right tradeoff by embracing Wi-Fi for the first generation - as frustrating as it may be for users. We'd venture a guess that a 3G iPhone is at least 12 months out, but until then keep an eye out for 802.11 hotspots - you'll get a better usage experience and better battery life on your iPhone.
post #59 of 104
Apple will address all remaining issues soon enough... or risk the wrath of Cramer again!

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post #60 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

"I so far haven't heard anyone with an iPhone say they wish it had 3G." As in anyone who currently owns and uses the iPhone. I've heard plenty of people who don't own the iPhone make all types of complaints about it.

I must say I am entirely satisfied with the EDGE/WiFi combination. Would faster by better? Of course, don't be an idiot. Would I trade off a thicker unit for faster - NO. Would I trade off a lower battery life for faster - NO.

Also, WRT to this "Report" don't forget the 'Reports' that iTunes is failing. <pseudo-quote> ' Spot checks show that iTunes has dropped significantly and is on its way to being taken over by ....' </pseudo-quote>. Right now people get hits and attention by dumping on apple. The AT&T report is only for 1.5 days and its viewed as a negative???? ~140,000 new signups in 36 hours!!!!!
post #61 of 104
I think it's funny it went down today. I also believe that they sold over 500,000 the first two days and 2 million buy end of today and Steve is getting a bid kick out all the talk. They get 1 second feedback on how many they sell. ONE second,,they can kick on their iphone at the beginning of the conference and tell how many are sold to that second .2 million ..... not a small number. I'm chillin my champagne at 4:00 pm..
post #62 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I know - in fact it was just people buying the excitement and now selling the news. I was just trying to point out that one should be careful not to look through a biased filter. Anyone who thinks that the run to 145 was based on "real" things while the drop today was somehow concocted is totally missing the boat.

The stockbrokers make waves to reap a better harvest for themselves .
post #63 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by drjjones View Post

The stockbrokers make waves to reap a better harvest for themselves .

It's hilarious because they're selling on more rumor at this point... it's no longer 'sell on the news'. Holy cow, these guys are nervous.

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post #64 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

"I so far haven't heard anyone with an iPhone say they wish it had 3G." As in anyone who currently owns and uses the iPhone. I've heard plenty of people who don't own the iPhone make all types of complaints about it.




Yes. Either you have it and you know what you're talking about, or you don't and it's all speculation.

Speaking for myself, I feel like I have walked through some magical door that shut behind me, and I can't go back to phones/PDAs/smartphones/laptops/etc the way they were, anymore.
post #65 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

So how high is too high now, Cameron? If you really knew the answer to that, you'd own the stock market.

That's easy - 145 was too high. So was 139 when I sold it. Hopefully I'll be able to buy 20% more shares for my money in a few weeks.
post #66 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post



Yes. Either you have it and you know what you're talking about, or you don't and it's all speculation.

Speaking for myself, I feel like I have walked through some magical door that shut behind me, and I can't go back to phones/PDAs/smartphones/laptops/etc the way they were, anymore.

No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD"

I don't own one, but I've used one, and the data speed sucked when I wasn't on wifi. And if I'm going to spend $600 on a phone, it's not going to have that limitation.

And since when is the opinion of a want-to-be customer/opinionmaker unimportant?
post #67 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD"

I don't own one, but I've used one, and the data speed sucked when I wasn't on wifi. And if I'm going to spend $600 on a phone, it's not going to have that limitation.

And since when is the opinion of a want-to-be customer/opinionmaker unimportant?

What "data" speed? Care to be more specific, considering you've (supposedly) "....used one"?
post #68 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

That's easy - 145 was too high. So was 139 when I sold it. Hopefully I'll be able to buy 20% more shares for my money in a few weeks.

You're the same guy (see above) that refers to the importance of "legitimate news" as opposed to "FUD."

Unless you have inside information at this point, what 'legitimate news' did you base your judgement that '145 was too high' to buy or sell?

Or, was it just 'FUD,' like it has been for everyone else, including yourself?
post #69 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

What "data" speed? Care to be more specific, considering you've (supposedly) "....used one"?

Browsing from web page to web page. Simple stuff. Google, washingtonpost, sites they wanted to use so I showed them how to browse around. I didn't dwell on it, going to 30 pages at a time, because I was configuring it for my client. But downloading email when not on their wifi was very slow, and forget about uploading an email with a few photos they had just taken.
post #70 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB View Post

fraklinc...
Have you ever heard of this thing called 'punctuation'?

Don't you know that franklinc's grandfather is James Joyce's long lost bastard son?
post #71 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

You're the same guy (see above) that refers to the importance of "legitimate news" as opposed to "FUD."

Ug, man this is painful. I said "No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD" "

I don't know if you are a native english speaker, but the phrasing I used their implies that someone else is doing the talking there, belittling the very suggestion that there is a good reason to sell.

I was bemoaning the sad (and expensive) fact that in places like this, those who think the stock should go up and are buying are cheered and lauded for their great research, and those who sell are considered idiots who were wrong at 30, 50, 90 and 120, and THUS will be wrong again at 150. Even those of us like me who bought well below $70 and were smart until the very moment they sold, at which point they became dumb herd followers. Get it?

Quote:
Unless you have inside information at this point, what 'legitimate news' did you base your judgement that '145 was too high' to buy or sell?

Or, was it just 'FUD,' like it has been for everyone else, including yourself?

The reason I sold, as I've said many times, is that Apple stock has been bid up far beyond its fundamental value by breathless Apple lovers, who see little importance in the present value of future cash flows and see everything in terms of world domination.

Yes Apple is doing great, yes they have great, popular products. But they have 5% of the computer market, 70% of the MP3 player market, and hope someday to have 1% of the cell phone market. Those facts, plus the as yet unaccomplished cell phone goal, do not give you a $150 billion dollar company unless there are a seriously large number of fools out there buying the stock and not questioning why they are doing it.

It's like drafting Kwame Brown 1st in the NBA draft - having great potential in the future is great, but at some point you have to actually play ball, and if we're waiting 5 years for Apple to reach the levels of market penetration they would need to justify TODAY's stock price, then something has to give.

And it will - you can either listen to opposing viewpoints or drink the Kool Aid which says that Apple stock should be at 200 today.
post #72 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Browsing from web page to web page. Simple stuff. Google, washingtonpost, sites they wanted to use so I showed them how to browse around. I didn't dwell on it, going to 30 pages at a time, because I was configuring it for my client. But downloading email when not on their wifi was very slow, and forget about uploading an email with a few photos they had just taken.

Ah, I thought so.

Two questions:

1) Did you notice how well maps (incl. satellite), directions, weather, stocks (which you claim to know a lot about), and email (w/o photo attachments) worked?

2) What device do you possess -- no, let me rephrase that, do you know of -- that browses real websites (not the 'mobile' crap) and sends photo attachments on email better/faster on EDGE than the iPhone? Oh, please make sure to name the model, when you used it, and where.
post #73 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

No kidding. And either you are buying on legitimate news or selling on "FUD"

I don't own one, but I've used one, and the data speed sucked when I wasn't on wifi. And if I'm going to spend $600 on a phone, it's not going to have that limitation.

And since when is the opinion of a want-to-be customer/opinionmaker unimportant?

And if I'm going to spend >$300 on a phone it's not going to be limited by a crappy keyboard, Junky UI, features I can't find and require either an IT guy or a geek friend to configure/figure out how to use.
post #74 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I was bemoaning the sad (and expensive) fact that in places like this, those who think the stock should go up and are buying are cheered and lauded for their great research, and those who sell are considered idiots who were wrong at 30, 50, 90 and 120, and THUS will be wrong again at 150.

What's your best guess for tomorrow's range?... assuming the news isn't quite as dismal as at&t suggested?

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post #75 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Ug, man this is painful.

For you, not for me. (And, what is 'Ug' [sic]).

Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I don't know if you are a native english speaker.......

I am not, but from the quality of the 'native' language abilities you have displayed so far, I'll stake a claim that I use the language far more carefully, conscientiously, and respectfully than you do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

The reason I sold, as I've said many times, is that Apple stock has been bid up far beyond its fundamental value by breathless Apple lovers, who see little importance in the present value of future cash flows and see everything in terms of world domination.

Actually, it is nice to see someone use the phrase "the present value of future cash flows." So, let me ask you: What discount rate do you think is appropriate for AAPL? What "g" do you use in your PV calculation? And, while you are at it, would you mind defining "cash flow"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

.... you can either listen to opposing viewpoints or drink the Kool Aid which says that Apple stock should be at 200 today.

I dislike Kool Aid. And, while on the topic, I can quite specifically tell you why $200 is an overvaluation of AAPL -- offline -- if you'd like to know. But it would, in all likelihood, bore you.
post #76 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

1) Did you notice how well maps (incl. satellite), directions, weather, stocks (which you claim to know a lot about), and email (w/o photo attachments) worked?

I was not happy with the google maps speed. Way too data intensive I imagine. Didn't try the stocks, the weather. Email without attachments worked great, because it disappeared before it sent. So you didn't feel like it was slow.

Quote:
2) What device do you possess -- no, let me rephrase that, do you know of -- that browses real websites (not the 'mobile' crap) and sends photo attachments on email better/faster on EDGE than the iPhone? Oh, please make sure to name the model, when you used it, and where.

You act like I'm attacking your mother here my friend!

It's a phone. I'm not attacking the phone, I'm telling you why I don't have one yet. My phone is very basic, it's on edge, and I don't use the internet on it EVER. TOO SLOW.

The phone is great, it's awesome, but it didn't sell 500,000 units in the first two days and THAT is why the stock is dropping. It didn't sell 300,000 either.

You just don't get it - you think I'm here because I hate Apple, hate the iPhone, etc. I am a big fan, but I'm not stupid enough to forget the difference between a stock and a company.
post #77 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

What's your best guess for tomorrow's range?... assuming the news isn't quite as dismal as at&t suggested?

Tomorrow? As in the day before earnings? Or Thursday?

I don't guess price ranges - it's too dependent on the broader market to be any more than a crap shoot. If the market had been up today, Apple would only have been down 3-5 points, not 10. I think Apple tomorrow will tread water with the market before earnings. After earnings, unless they are truly terrible (IE missing estimates, or just meeting them) I think the stock will go up a few percentage points and then quickly drop back. By morning I think it will be 3-5 % points below where the market is.

So there, I put it in writing. I know you're bookmarking it so you can try to thumb your nose. So you now give your thoughts so I can do the same.
post #78 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacSuperiority View Post

Their is no fucking way they will introduce a 3G model this year. If it was technologicly possible they would have done it with this model. There is not some huge jump in battery performance or a better 3G receiver that would make it possible. Not only that, if they came out with a 3G model right now it would seriously piss off alot of people who just droped 600 bucks for their iPhones. Those people who wanted an iPhone bought one and adding 3G is not going to have a huge impact on sales.

I would say they would come out with a lower priced version with just a phone and music player way before they would come out with a new 3G enabled model.

They won't release one until AT&T's backbone is upgraded. T-Mobile itself has to invest several billion to upgrade to 3G.
post #79 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Actually, it is nice to see someone use the phrase "the present value of future cash flows." So, let me ask you: What discount rate do you think is appropriate for AAPL? What "g" do you use in your PV calculation? And, while you are at it, would you mind defining "cash flow"?

What a pissing contest.

I have an economics degree from an Ivy league university. And this is my last reply to you, with your smarmy superior attitude. You are doing well to illustrate why "the other 95%" find Apple fans so insufferable.
post #80 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

...... but I'm not stupid enough to forget the difference between a stock and a company.

Last post tonight (for me too -- good night!), since it's getting late, and I have a busy day tomorrow (Although, I must admit that I am enjoying this conversation!).

Since you claim to be smart enough to know the difference between 'a stock and a company,' I'll ask you the same questions as I did above: What discount rate do you think is appropriate for AAPL? What "g" do you use in your PV calculation? And, while you are at it, would you mind defining "cash flow"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

You act like I'm attacking your mother here my friend!

Please don't get all creepy on me -- you're now beginning to sound oedipal. Sheesh.
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