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Analyst claims iPhone demand slowing but 3G model in cards - Page 3

post #81 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


The phone is great, it's awesome, but it didn't sell 500,000 units in the first two days and THAT is why the stock is dropping. It didn't sell 300,000 either.
.


What you don't seem to get is that you, nor I, nor anyone else knows how many were sold in the first two days.

1) This is activations before end of business on Sat. This isn't sales the first two days, its not even the first two days. Its a few hours on Friday and then part of Saturday as people that bought late Sat. didn't likely even all try to activate.

2) The above numbers you throw around were usually quoted for the weekend (through sunday) or into the week.

This report from AT&T adds nothing either negative or positive to the news that's available up till now.
post #82 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by physguy View Post

What you don't seem to get is that you, nor I, nor anyone else knows how many were sold in the first two days.

You wouldn't be saying that if ATT reported 500,000 activations

So either the news is great for Apple, or it's unclear Sounds good for a long, not so good for someone suggesting that things might not be so sunny Guess it's impossible for me to use the 10 point drop today to prove anything, huh
post #83 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

You wouldn't be saying that if ATT reported 500,000 activations

So either the news is great for Apple, or it's unclear Sounds good for a long, not so good for someone suggesting that things might not be so sunny Guess it's impossible for me to use the 10 point drop today to prove anything, huh

Why wouldn't I say the same thing since its true. Again, its neither great, nor unclear, nor bad. This FACT is a number which is only lightly coupled to the 300,000 to 500,000 or whatever the number is that were actually sold. Its only a LOWER bound so certainly 500,000 would support the other number bandied about. The relationship between this number and the number sold over the first few days is complex at best.

By the way, at least get your actual facts correct - it was an 8.81 point drop followed by a 1.51 point rebound in after hours. And if you're implying in any way that short term stock fluctuations can be used to prove anything, other than the sheep mentality of investors especially day-traders, well...
post #84 of 104
Okay; you're a cynic.

That fact doesn't however make you incorrect!

If I had the cash to buy up some Apple shares I would... and I'd thank these analysts from the bottom of my big fat beefy wallet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gee4orce View Post

Call me a cynic, but I suspect this is someone talking down the stock pre-earnings report so that they can step in tomorrow and make a quick killing....
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post #85 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

...I have an economics degree from an Ivy league university. .....

IANW.
LOL.
post #86 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

That's easy - 145 was too high. So was 139 when I sold it. Hopefully I'll be able to buy 20% more shares for my money in a few weeks.

Boy are you in LA- LA land. you had your chance yesterday at 135... never to be seen again ..i gave up selling mine as I can't guess the daily moves and I'm just old dumb buy and hold ... dumb me .
Talk to me Friday at 160 with all the woulda coulda shouldas .
post #87 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by drjjones View Post

Boy are you in LA- LA land. you had your chance yesterday at 135... never to be seen again ..i gave up selling mine as I can't guess the daily moves and I'm just old dumb buy and hold ... dumb me .
Talk to me Friday at 160 with all the woulda coulda shouldas .

That would make for a 30 day range of 120 to 160 - you really think that's reasonable huh?

All I'm predicting is a move back to where it was a couple weeks ago. You're predicting another 15% jump to new highs. I guess we'll see who's in la la land
post #88 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

That would make for a 30 day range of 120 to 160 - you really think that's reasonable huh?

All I'm predicting is a move back to where it was a couple weeks ago. You're predicting another 15% jump to new highs. I guess we'll see who's in la la land


LOL

I am going to come back to this thread on Friday to hear both of you explain why the stock closed where it did on Friday.

By the way I put my money on drjones. Although I don't think we will hit $160 after yesterday.

We might hit $150
post #89 of 104
cameronj you have shown good restraint on here. Thumbs up.


AAPL valuation has little to do with discount rates or g values whatever that is. Those values should be baked in by market convention.

What really matters is sales volume of the iPhone, and intangibles such as how many people hope to buy the iPhone, iTV in the future.

AT&T's package is a mite too expensive. I really wish the package were $50 or so per month -- $35 plus $15 for internet. Considering a massive ramp-up in subscriber volume, the internet pricing will need to fall.

I think this is a major factor hurting AAPL and AT&T both. They were too greedy on plan pricing. But, the iPhone will still sell by the truckload.

As I've said since 2004, "AAPL 200."

And oh, I bought in 2001/2002.
post #90 of 104
Seems there is some news from both sides. This news story states that "RBC Capital Markets checks suggest demand and sales momentum for the Apple iPhone at AT&T stores and its own, remain steady."
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post #91 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by drjjones View Post

Boy are you in LA- LA land. you had your chance yesterday at 135... never to be seen again ..i gave up selling mine as I can't guess the daily moves and I'm just old dumb buy and hold ... dumb me .
Talk to me Friday at 160 with all the woulda coulda shouldas .

Me too. Wait—we've gone through that already.

Apple almost made your buck today. My guess was low .80's to mid .80's.

Let's split the difference.
post #92 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwik View Post

cameronj you have shown good restraint on here. Thumbs up.


AAPL valuation has little to do with discount rates or g values whatever that is. Those values should be baked in by market convention.

What really matters is sales volume of the iPhone, and intangibles such as how many people hope to buy the iPhone, iTV in the future.

AT&T's package is a mite too expensive. I really wish the package were $50 or so per month -- $35 plus $15 for internet. Considering a massive ramp-up in subscriber volume, the internet pricing will need to fall.

I think this is a major factor hurting AAPL and AT&T both. They were too greedy on plan pricing. But, the iPhone will still sell by the truckload.

As I've said since 2004, "AAPL 200."

And oh, I bought in 2001/2002.

If everything we've been reading about ATT's payments to Apple are true, it explains the monthly rates. $9 a month to Apple must be figured into the plans.

Apple is getting the money the customers are paying over what your numbers are.

As a stockholder, I suppose I'm happy, as a possible customer I wouldn't be. If this holds the sales of the iPhone back, it could cost Apple more than they gain from it. Then I wouldn't be happy as a stockholder either.
post #93 of 104
Quote:
AT&T's package is a mite too expensive. I really wish the package were $50 or so per month -- $35 plus $15 for internet. Considering a massive ramp-up in subscriber volume, the internet pricing will need to fall.

Its not really a special iPhone price. Its basically the same rate ATT charges for its other smartphones. And looking around you can easily find smartphone plans that are a lot more expensive.
post #94 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Its not really a special iPhone price. Its basically the same rate ATT charges for its other smartphones. And looking around you can easily find smartphone plans that are a lot more expensive.

Yeah, I agree. I was paying more for my previous service through Alltel and the "data" package that I got there was the watered down internet that sucked and a txt msg package. This is so much better yet people seem to pick on it simply because of the iPhone's popularity.
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post #95 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I have an economics degree from an Ivy league university. And this is my last reply to you, with your smarmy superior attitude.

Surely you can recognize the irony of your statement?
post #96 of 104
I also have an economics degree from an ivy league university. We're a dime a dozen.

I am glad AAPL is getting $9 a month! That's, uh, $216 extra for AAPL. But I'd rather they just sold more iPhones. But, AAPL is very smart wizard, I worship, AAPL strong and smart.

Yes, Ivy League.
post #97 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by physguy View Post

What you don't seem to get is that you, nor I, nor anyone else knows how many were sold in the first two days.

1) This is activations before end of business on Sat. This isn't sales the first two days, its not even the first two days. Its a few hours on Friday and then part of Saturday as people that bought late Sat. didn't likely even all try to activate.

2) The above numbers you throw around were usually quoted for the weekend (through sunday) or into the week.

This report from AT&T adds nothing either negative or positive to the news that's available up till now.

Completely agree with you...
post #98 of 104
eMediaWire http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2007/8/emw544185.htm
Found this article on MacSurfer.

Apple iPhone Causing Upheaval in Cellular Industry

Not sure who the ChangeWave Alliance is, but based on a survey of 3,003 of its' members they made the following quotes.

Quote:
Even though it's been on the market just a month, the Apple iPhone is already registering in the ChangeWave survey results - garnering 1% of current cell phone market share. But it's when respondents were asked about their planned cell phone purchases over the next six months that the full transformational impact of the iPhone is seen.

Among respondents who say they plan to buy a cell phone in the next six months, an astounding 16% say they'll purchase an iPhone - catapulting Apple ahead of all other manufacturers.


Quote:
The survey also asked consumers how satisfied they were with their current cell phone, and found the iPhone registering the highest satisfaction levels of any device. An extraordinary 77% of iPhone owners said they were "Very Satisfied" with their new Apple product. The RIM Blackberry also received a relatively high rating, with one-in-two owners (50%) reporting they were "Very Satisfied."


Quote:
In terms of current market share, for the first time in more than a year Verizon (29%) registered a decline - down 1-point. T-Mobile (10% down 1-pt) has also declined. AT&T, on the other hand, increased its market share by 1-pt to an all time high of 28%.

But it's when ChangeWave queried respondents who reported they'll switch their cellular service providers over the next six months, that the full impact of the iPhone on service providers can be seen.

AT&T (30%; up 2-pts) is once again adding to its ever growing lead over Verizon in terms of future buying, and is now the top choice among those likely to switch service providers.


Seems like good news to me and we have yet to see what effect Apple selling the iPhone overseas and the possible release of a less expensive model may do.
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post #99 of 104
AT&T needs to get on the ball then and solidify the network part of the iPhone equation. I don't have any bars in my kitchen but I have 5 bars in my son's room? I've walked 30 feet and found that kind of hole in coverage a mile from an interstate highway?
post #100 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by PBG4 Dude View Post

AT&T needs to get on the ball then and solidify the network part of the iPhone equation. I don't have any bars in my kitchen but I have 5 bars in my son's room? I've walked 30 feet and found that kind of hole in coverage a mile from an interstate highway?

It's a funny thing the way it works.

Lots of things can affect reception. I've had a plane overhead knock me off a call several years ago.

In your house, the way water pipes and drains are situated can cause a dead spot. the same thing is true of electrical wiring, esp. out of NYC, where our wires are shielded. Romex, used in many other communities, can cause problems.

Structural elements in the house can cause problems as well. If you are in an older house as I am, you might have wire mesh behind the walls. While this in itself isn't enough to cause a problem, in combination with other things mentioned above, it could act as a shield under the right (wrong?) circumstances.

Outdoors, when a distance from a tower is often common, moving a few feet one way or the other could get the signal to drop off precipitously, as you noticed.
post #101 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by newmaq View Post

There are many out there that are waiting for one of a few things to happen before they take the plunge:

Their current mobile plan to expire so they don't take a hit.

Something reasonable people locked into a plan would do.
Quote:
A few extra bucks to hit the budget to justify.

A very significant point that needs to be stressed. Some people simply are not flush with money for unplanned expenditures.
Quote:
Birthday so their wife will get them one...(I hope she reads this)
Bugs to be worked out of current system.

Bugs and missing software features are a big one for me and I suspect a number of other people. Calendar and the E-Mail package need work and then they need to consider file management. As it is even if flush with money the iPhone is hard to justify if it won't fit into my work habits.

Software is the issue keeping me from buying at the moment!
Quote:
Don't want to be seen as the weenie that had to have the newest gadget.

Actually I had pull in that direction. That is buying the iPhone for the weenie factor. Fortunately conservatism (the good kind) won out. I can save my money for a bit long and wait for Apple or the competition to get it right. One significant source of competition would be OpenMoko if they can pull it off soon enough.
Quote:
Or they quite simply have not held one in their hands or watched someone play with it.

Actually this is a very compelling sales approach. I was extremely tempted after seeing one first hand in the store.
Quote:

Like myself, many have to justify purchases. Suckers pay retail right? Some are just waiting for the first promotion so they can brag they got a good deal. Anyone who bought right away paid retail...

Frankly even I see this as a bit of a cheap shot. Sales for the most part are made up of buyers and sellers agreeing on a reasonable price. In the case of Apple things are skewed a bit towards Apple but if enough people walk away from Apple's IPhone they will get the message.

As a side note I don't expect Apple to lower prices on current models, rather I see them bringing out new models and make the old "BEST" model the new entry level device..

Dave
post #102 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

"I so far haven't heard anyone with an iPhone say they wish it had 3G." As in anyone who currently owns and uses the iPhone. I've heard plenty of people who don't own the iPhone make all types of complaints about it.

hey I don't own one and can honestly say that 3G never has been the reason. Its the software/user environment folks and as soon as Apple or the competition iron that out I will have a smart phone. What will be interesting is seeing whom successfully adjust their feature set to properly support the smarter smart phone user.

Dave
post #103 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Its the software/user environment folks and as soon as Apple or the competition iron that out I will have a smart phone. What will be interesting is seeing whom successfully adjust their feature set to properly support the smarter smart phone user.

Dave

There's this thing called the iPhone. Have you heard of it?
post #104 of 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

hey I don't own one and can honestly say that 3G never has been the reason. Its the software/user environment folks and as soon as Apple or the competition iron that out I will have a smart phone. What will be interesting is seeing whom successfully adjust their feature set to properly support the smarter smart phone user.

Dave

Can you be more specific?
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