or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Analyst: iPhone is Harry Potter "squib" of cellphones
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Analyst: iPhone is Harry Potter "squib" of cellphones

post #1 of 107
Thread Starter 
Apple and AT&T may have produced marketplace magic in the past, but a new report claims that the firms' iPhone child may lack the gifts of its parents.

Timing the introduction of his report just after the release of the final Harry Potter book, Capital Group senior VP Ashok Kumar told investors that the iPhone had the pedigree of the iPod's success and the backbone of AT&T's service but that, like the unfortunate offspring in J.K. Rowling's stories, the combination fails to live up to the expectations set by its ancestors.

"In the Harry Potter books, a squib is the offspring of a witch and wizard that lacks the ability to produce magic," Kumar explained. "In the technology world, the iPhone is a product from Apple teamed with the wireless network of AT&T that lacks the ability to produce magical business growth."

Unlike the more mysterious origins of the fictional characters, however, the lackluster results for the iPhone are said to be traceable to mistakes made in the iPhone's features and pricing. The device is aimed squarely at the iPod's general public audience but is priced in the same range as personal digital assistants and smartphones. Either flaw could be a potentially fatal blow to the handset, Kumar said.

While businesses already have their own self-evident questions about the value of integrating a potentially less productive (and more distracting) smartphone into their networks when RIM's BlackBerry or Palm's Treo were already known to work well, the real issue is the expense of the iPhone for those used to both the the iPod and everyday cellphones, according to the report. The iPod has rarely been priced at $500 and never had a two-year contract associated with its use -- an especially serious problem when customers can get some of the features in much less expensive devices.

"The market is already saturated with popular [phones] that are virtually free to consumers," the expert wrote. "The perceived zero cost of a cellphone like the Motorola RAZR is a serious impediment... the $500 price difference between and iPhone and any number of richly featured [phones] is a lot for a large number of individuals and families to overcome."

Apple would also have to confront the backwash from the corporate world's traditional resistance to anything Mac in the workplace, as many IT managers might resist certifying the iPhone for their networks even if support falls into place. Both the Cupertino-based firm and its cellphone would have to overcome old stereotypes before they could gain acceptance, Kumar said.

In contrast to the squibs of Hogwarts, Apple is not necessarily condemned to mediocrity, according to the Capital Group. But the iPhone would not be guaranteed a better outcome unless its parent was willing to change its strategy, which could become a costly mistake in the long term.

"The old iPod magic doesn't translate here -- the iPhone is going to be much more difficult," Kumar noted.
post #2 of 107
Lackluster results? 270,000 in 30 hours is lackluster?

And what a stupid comparison.
post #3 of 107
Well well.

A Harry Potter fan who is also an analyst.
post #4 of 107
Cornelius Kumar Fudge is in denial. Perhaps he is a death eater in hiding.

The pod chooses the wizard. Just ask wandmaker Steve "Olivander" Jobs.

This is the first of countless steps out onto the thin-ice of an extended Harry Potter metaphor.
post #5 of 107
Apparently references to 'iPhone analysis' is not enough to generate sufficient traffic for 'analysts' anymore, so throw in a few timely, misplaced remarks about Harry Potter and zippo to the top of search engine rankings! Success!

BTW, it would sure be nice to have links to reports like these in the article, so I could spew my vitriol at the correct target, you know, if I were in to such things.
post #6 of 107
Two words: Microsoft Eater!
post #7 of 107
What a TIT!
I don't see how an anti M$ stance can be seen as a bad thing on an Apple forum I really can't!

nagromme - According to Amazon: "SpongBob Typing Tutor" is outselling Windows
Reply
I don't see how an anti M$ stance can be seen as a bad thing on an Apple forum I really can't!

nagromme - According to Amazon: "SpongBob Typing Tutor" is outselling Windows
Reply
post #8 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by appletweak View Post

Apparently references to 'iPhone analysis' is not enough to generate sufficient traffic for 'analysts' anymore, so throw in a few timely, misplaced remarks about Harry Potter and zippo to the top of search engine rankings! Success!

BTW, it would sure be nice to have links to reports like these in the article, so I could spew my vitriol at the correct target, you know, if I were in to such things.

awesome.
Good for <del>wiki</del>OpenLeaks
<del>wiki</del>OpenLeaks for Good
Reply
Good for <del>wiki</del>OpenLeaks
<del>wiki</del>OpenLeaks for Good
Reply
post #9 of 107
Riddikulus. The RAZR used to be far more expensive, and the iPhone is very likely going to drop in price as well.
post #10 of 107
well, guys, he has a good point! I mean, why would I buy such an expensive iphone when I could just get a razr for free?

jeez, this guy's brilliant!

I'd research what else he doesn't think is great and put the mortgage on it.
post #11 of 107
The iPhone is ridiculously expensive and there is no way in hell it will not impact the iPod. This is a very smart move on Apple's part to get into this market, but to expect it to happen without growing pains is absurd.
proud resident of a failed state
Reply
proud resident of a failed state
Reply
post #12 of 107
it's just a rare situation for apple, where we're used to them being ahead of us, but unfortunately, we as consumers, are ahead of the iPhone.

The iPhone, in my opinion is great, but it missed some really really simple implementations of what a cell phone can do (IM chat, 3rd party apps, video and picture messaging, etc).

NAND flash memory (or whatever they're using in the iPhone) is just too early to adopt in cell phones... I know when you add all the compononents it's priced fair to be $499-599.. but the general target market of the audience is more alone the lines of $299.

It is a goal of mine to lean more towards Apple products, replace my old gadgets with new Apple toys.. unfortunately, my cell phone will have to wait til 2010. Verizon is a great network, but they sell crapcastic phones... thus re-naming them to Craprizon or JankRizon
post #13 of 107
This guy does nothing but spit out un-supported reasons why the iPhone will fail, using the Harry Potter term "Squib" as a reference for what this product will be. But here are just a few problems with his article.

1. AT&T Network. If its so bad, then why do they have the most subscribers (approx 67 million)?

2. Phone Pricing. Everyone knows that the iPhone is expensive, but if you remember, the iPod was originally more expensive than other comparable media players when it first came out and critics said the same thing. What they didn't consider is the fact that people will actually PAY for quality - the real reason the iPod sold well (not just because it was flashy or "cool").

3. Features. Yes, yes. We all know that the features on the iPhone exist and other phones. Again, its about the experience.

4. Business / Target Market. I will say it again. THIS PHONE IS NOT A BUSINESS PHONE. How many times do I see articles reviewing the iPhone saying that it won't sell because its not business friendly. Apple is courting the gobs and gobs of 18 to 35 year-olds that have tons of discretionary spending (see xbox 360, PS3, etc.) that will pay a premium for the new gadget or access to high technology. These early adopters will drive the prices down until the iPhone (or subsequent versions) can be mass marketed on the consumer side. Never will this be a mainstream business product.
post #14 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by domerdel View Post

it's just a rare situation for apple, where we're used to them being ahead of us, but unfortunately, we as consumers, are ahead of the iPhone.

The iPhone, in my opinion is great, but it missed some really really simple implementations of what a cell phone can do (IM chat, 3rd party apps, video and picture messaging, etc).

NAND flash memory (or whatever they're using in the iPhone) is just too early to adopt in cell phones... I know when you add all the compononents it's priced fair to be $499-599.. but the general target market of the audience is more alone the lines of $299.

It is a goal of mine to lean more towards Apple products, replace my old gadgets with new Apple toys.. unfortunately, my cell phone will have to wait til 2010. Verizon is a great network, but they sell crapcastic phones... thus re-naming them to Craprizon or JankRizon

You can't honestly think that they weren't limited by what they could release due to time, and the fact that Leopard (which was supposed to ship in June) didn't. iChat, Notes Syncing, To Dos, etc are all going to be patched when leopard comes out.

As for MMS, Video, 3rd Party apps., etc. think about this. Core Animation. Another Leopard feature, would probably be required for at least one of these if not all.

The point is, they were limited in their feature set because of Leopard's delay.
post #15 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thinine View Post

And what a stupid comparison.

Ditto. An analyst who uses Harry Potter analogies? How old is this guy?

I get the feeling that these "analysts" think that whatever they say will come true... they do know however that people are laughing at them right? Another great quote: "Apple is not necessarily condemned to mediocrity".... wow thanks for that. Whew.

What an ass.
post #16 of 107
When an corporate analyst has to resort to allusions to popular literature to explain business, you know whatever they have to say is bullshit.
post #17 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggsjm View Post


2. Phone Pricing. Everyone knows that the iPhone is expensive, but if you remember, the iPod was originally more expensive than other comparable media players when it first came out and critics said the same thing. What they didn't consider is the fact that people will actually PAY for quality - the real reason the iPod sold well (not just because it was flashy or "cool").

Not really... The iPhone itself is $500-600, but the recurring costs @ a clip of $60+ a month is altogether different from an iPod. I think alot of you are forgetting that smart phones make up a very small portion of phone sales in the US, and as such most people see these price tags as a waste of money. Try getting a family of 4 who make average money to buy these, good luck with that... But I bet 2 or more in that family have an iPod or iPod nano. It's not just the price of the device, while it helps, the recurring costs are high for normal cell users.
post #18 of 107
Not only is this analysis a regurgitation of what has been said before- it's pretty ballsy considering most analysts stopped talking this nonsense when the phone was released. Now that the initial numbers were released, this guy's analysis is utter garbage and quite incomplete.

Capital Group pays this guy? I think this guy should stick to finding white castle and getting stoned after reading harry potter.
post #19 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggsjm View Post

Everyone knows that the iPhone is expensive, but if you remember, the iPod was originally more expensive than other comparable media players when it first came out and critics said the same thing. What they didn't consider is the fact that people will actually PAY for quality - Apple is courting the gobs and gobs of 18 to 35 year-olds that have tons of discretionary spending

Right! It is a niche market - That is why Steve said he only wanted 1% of the market. I love my iPhone, my MacBook Pro, my Mac Pro, my 30" Cinema display, and my new iMac. Too bad they don't make sports cars, I'm in the market for one.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

Reply

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

Reply
post #20 of 107
.lol.
squib.
maybe this squib will perform magic later in life... (harry potter nerd i am i am...)
anyway, this is lame. not to mention late. and irrelevant.... and.... harry potter? really? why?
post #21 of 107
Its like some of these guys hate it so much they have nightmares of it,
Dam, if you hate it that much dont even talk about it, do anyone remember the 5gb iPod
it was price at around $499 and the 20gb around $599 and they sold
millions of then, so I really dont see apple having a problem with the iPhone,
unless att wires the entire us with 3G with a year which I find imposible to do
so soon
post #22 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by domerdel View Post

it's just a rare situation for apple, where we're used to them being ahead of us, but unfortunately, we as consumers, are ahead of the iPhone.

The iPhone, in my opinion is great, but it missed some really really simple implementations of what a cell phone can do (IM chat, 3rd party apps, video and picture messaging, etc).

NAND flash memory (or whatever they're using in the iPhone) is just too early to adopt in cell phones... I know when you add all the compononents it's priced fair to be $499-599.. but the general target market of the audience is more alone the lines of $299.

It is a goal of mine to lean more towards Apple products, replace my old gadgets with new Apple toys.. unfortunately, my cell phone will have to wait til 2010. Verizon is a great network, but they sell crapcastic phones... thus re-naming them to Craprizon or JankRizon

You are not seeing the big picture. This is the first release that is designed to capture the die hards who will sit in line over night. The next release will be for the general market. It will have a few less features and be more of a phone/ipod and less of a smart phone.

TechnoMinds

We are a Montreal based technology company that offers a variety of tech services such as tech support for Apple products, Drupal based website development, computer training and iCloud...

Reply

TechnoMinds

We are a Montreal based technology company that offers a variety of tech services such as tech support for Apple products, Drupal based website development, computer training and iCloud...

Reply
post #23 of 107
Capital Group senior VP Ashok Kumar is a squib of an analyst.
"Isnt it enough to see that a garden is beautiful without having to believe that there are fairies at the bottom of it too?" - douglas adams
Reply
"Isnt it enough to see that a garden is beautiful without having to believe that there are fairies at the bottom of it too?" - douglas adams
Reply
post #24 of 107
as i iphone owner i can tell you iphone is not perfect, and i have seen a couple of things i dont like about it
but, for it to be a iphone 1.0 i can say its a really nice phone, and theres no way in hell am goin back to my old treo 750
post #25 of 107
This is Apples game to lose. They have delivered a fairly crippled device at a premium price point. If we do not see more features by version 1.2, such as Bluetooth support on par with other high end phones, audio recording, copy and paste, more customization, etc… then it very well might go down as a failure.


So far most are willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, and attribute the lack of features due to the OS being a version 1.0 (less code = less things to go wrong). However, if they don't step up their game, they will get their ass handed to them in the long run.
Report employers of illegal aliens at (866) DHS-2ICE
Reply
Report employers of illegal aliens at (866) DHS-2ICE
Reply
post #26 of 107
The guy uses a horrible example in the Razr V3, but he does have a point. With a two-year contract from just about anybody, you can get a pretty nice phone - a good Sony Erricson music phone or a Blackberry Pearl - for almost nothing and then a 4 gig memory card for $50. I'm a Mac fan, so you don't need to point out how much more advanced the iPhone is, but that adds up to a pretty hefty premium for something with similar functionality. With that kind of premium, I can't realistically imagine buying one until the price comes down into the $300 ballpark
post #27 of 107
I noticed all the bashers never compare total cost: phone + contract. Over the two year contract comparable smart phones cost the same while delivering less. Initial price comparisons are lame when the service provider subsidizes the competitor's price while charging higher priced services to the customer.
post #28 of 107
One word: wow.
post #29 of 107
See, people are making the same mistake with iPhone as they did with iPod. They compare a list of features on a piece of paper, and say "but product x has more features and is the same price or cheaper, so iWhatever will not be a success!"

But they are wrong, aren't they? Because iPhone is PLEASANT and FUN to USE! I love my iPhone, way more than any consumer electronics device I've owned before. It is a JOY to use, it works like a phone SHOULD. It does other nifty things too, and does them pretty darned well. It is WELL-DESIGNED, and this IN AND OF ITSELF is a feature that people will pay a premium for.

But it's OK -- I will sit back and laugh as my AAPL continues to go up, Apple takes over more and more of the portable media player/communicator market, and consumers have more opportunities to use well-designed products that don't insult their intelligence or sense of taste/design. People KNOW what well-designed products are, and maybe the geeks of the world will support something based on its spec-sheet, but the rest of us will use what we think is designed the best.

And geez, to base any prediction of Apple's future success in this market on Rev 1 of the product -- give me a break. Let's review of those old iPod threads/analysis, shall we? NOBODY thought it would succeed. And guess what -- they sold WAY FEWER iPods at first than they are selling iPhones.

I think Sony Ericsson, Nokia, Motorola, and Samsung et al. have a lot to be worried about. How could a company with NO cellphone design experience BLOW THEM AWAY design-wise in their VERY FIRST TRY? It's unheard of, but this is what Apple excels at.
post #30 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bacillus View Post

This is Apples game to lose. They have delivered a fairly crippled device at a premium price point. If we do not see more features by version 1.2, such as Bluetooth support on par with other high end phones, audio recording, copy and paste, more customization, etc then it very well might go down as a failure.


So far most are willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, and attribute the lack of features due to the OS being a version 1.0 (less code = less things to go wrong). However, if they don't step up their game, they will get their ass handed to them in the long run.

Oh come on! Not too crippled and you are not taking into account that what you find lacking/don't like is not the way it will remain. I am constantly stunned by people's comments about Apple's "here and now" and their clear implication that that is how it will always be. Incredibly short-sighted vision.
Apple, being Apple, eventually goes beyond the stars that others barely reach. Does it take time and a few revisions? YES! So what?
Even if only some of YOUR "must haves"-- or, even NONE of them--come true, this phone is, and will be a hit. Sorry mate that you see things in this black-and-white, "must be what 'I' want mode- but this phone does NOT have to meet your requirements to be a success. Why? Because it is already despite the sad lamentations of an erstwhile analyst who has no idea of what 'vision' is and who would not see the words, stunning, superior, clever, intuitive, needed, in any product Apple makes. From his uneducated position, he would, by necessity protect himself by saying the right things-- the iPod is great, OS X is good etc-- but would not understand a word he said in the context of having a clear understanding of Apple's modus operandi.
post #31 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by ericjames View Post

The guy uses a horrible example in the Razr V3, but he does have a point. With a two-year contract from just about anybody, you can get a pretty nice phone - a good Sony Erricson music phone or a Blackberry Pearl - for almost nothing and then a 4 gig memory card for $50. I'm a Mac fan, so you don't need to point out how much more advanced the iPhone is, but that adds up to a pretty hefty premium for something with similar functionality. With that kind of premium, I can't realistically imagine buying one until the price comes down into the $300 ballpark

That's the thing, you don't get a pretty nice phone. Quite frankly, phones in the US are quite mediocre. Once I bought the iPhone, dude, my wife dumped her yunkie cell phone in a heartbeat to buy one. Seriously, it might seem somewhat expensive, but its sooooo worth it.
post #32 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraklinc View Post

Its like some of these guys hate it so much they have nightmares of it,
Dam, if you hate it that much dont even talk about it, do anyone remember the 5gb iPod
it was price at around $499 and the 20gb around $599 and they sold
millions of then, so I really dont see apple having a problem with the iPhone,
unless att wires the entire us with 3G with a year which I find imposible to do
so soon

post #33 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post

Not really... The iPhone itself is $500-600, but the recurring costs @ a clip of $60+ a month is altogether different from an iPod. I think alot of you are forgetting that smart phones make up a very small portion of phone sales in the US, and as such most people see these price tags as a waste of money. Try getting a family of 4 who make average money to buy these, good luck with that... But I bet 2 or more in that family have an iPod or iPod nano. It's not just the price of the device, while it helps, the recurring costs are high for normal cell users.

$60 a month a dirt cheap for a data package on a phone, I was very impressed with the monthly service fee on this, it isn't much more than my current phone, which just gives me basic service.

Analysts need to remember also that when the first iPod came out it almost completely disappeared, Apple now sells more iPods in a 2 week period than the first iPod sold its first year.

And yes 240,000 iPhones in 30 hours is pretty dang impressive, especially when selling a device that requires service activation, people don't normally jump on that this way.
post #34 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by appletweak View Post

Apparently references to 'iPhone analysis' is not enough to generate sufficient traffic for 'analysts' anymore, so throw in a few timely, misplaced remarks about Harry Potter and zippo to the top of search engine rankings! Success!

BTW, it would sure be nice to have links to reports like these in the article, so I could spew my vitriol at the correct target, you know, if I were in to such things.

Working those search engines. If only he could have somehow added the phrase "for free porn click here".

24" iMac, 2 MB Pros, iPad Version 1, 2 x (iPhone 4s), Apple TV 3, a Shuffle and a couple of iTouches somewhere in the house. Spot on wall reserved for an Apple TV of some description. Oh yeah..and...

Reply

24" iMac, 2 MB Pros, iPad Version 1, 2 x (iPhone 4s), Apple TV 3, a Shuffle and a couple of iTouches somewhere in the house. Spot on wall reserved for an Apple TV of some description. Oh yeah..and...

Reply
post #35 of 107
This guy is a senior VP?

This kind of sophomoric, stream-of-conciousness analysis surely does not inspire a great deal of confidence in the "Capital Group."

post #36 of 107
Quote:
the lackluster results for the iPhone are said to be traceable to mistakes made in the iPhone's features and pricing.

"Most successful launch in AT&T's history" == lackluster Was he expecting also the announcement that aliens do exist?
post #37 of 107
(Angry ranting rescinded)
post #38 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by reboylin View Post

I noticed all the bashers never compare total cost: phone + contract. Over the two year contract comparable smart phones cost the same while delivering less. Initial price comparisons are lame when the service provider subsidizes the competitor's price while charging higher priced services to the customer.

Agree, it's a shame more emphasis is not placed on 'life cycle costing' with not only the iPhone but for all computer users regardless of 'platform'.
post #39 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by britwithgoodteeth View Post


Nice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by polar315 View Post

Working those search engines. If only he could have somehow added the phrase "for free porn click here".

Very naaaicce.
post #40 of 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by crees! View Post

"Most successful launch in AT&T's history" == lackluster Was he expecting also the announcement that aliens do exist?

In which case the naysayers would say, *meh, they only can travel like 25,000 times the speed of light, I was expecting covering 1/5th of the universe in like 5 minutes*
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Discussion
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Analyst: iPhone is Harry Potter "squib" of cellphones