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Analyst sees 3G iPhone from Apple by Christmas

post #1 of 39
Thread Starter 
A recent deal with a key parts supplier means Apple could have an iPhone with much improved cellular Internet access on the market before the end of the year, according to a new bulletin by market researchers Forward Concepts.

Chief analyst Will Strauss noted that Apple's recently struck, seven-year deal with InterDigital for patent licenses covering present and future iPhone models appeared to confirm his group's beliefs that an Apple handset with third-generation (3G) cellular broadband was already in development and could be ready as soon as the holidays.

This timetable, obtained directly from the report by AppleInsider, contradicts earlier reports on Tuesday which claimed cited the same firm as saying Apple might announce both European carriers and a matching 3G iPhone as early as this week.

The Forward Concepts report noted that semiconductor firm Infineon was likely manufacturing the transceivers needed to enable the faster connection using InterDigital's 3G technology. It was the only company not already obligated to produce the technology for someone else, Strauss said, and was already manufacturing the slower, 2G EDGE hardware used in the iPhone.

Infineon is producing chipsets for "at least two" unnamed companies that rely on UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System) technology for cellular Internet links, he added. The format is often used for cellphone Internet access in Europe and can include the faster HSDPA (High Speed Download Packet Access) protocol used in Europe and North America. The analyst warned, however, that there was no guarantee Apple would be ready to launch 3G access on an HSDPA network such as AT&T's so soon after the release of the 2G iPhone.

"There is no doubt that a 3G... version of the iPhone is in the offing," Strauss said. "Whether it also has higher-speed (HSDPA) capability for the next release is uncertain."

While the claim appears to be based on the connections between companies rather than direct sources, the report feeds into speculation about an enhanced iPhone model triggered by an alleged German T-Mobile ad that surfaced this past weekend. The unconfirmed leak pointed to a mid-November release of an iPhone with both HSDPA and UMTS network support for the German provider, which would offer unlimited data plans with connection speeds peaking at 3.6 megabits per second.

The purported ad also referred to the German iPhone as an "XL" model with 16GB of storage and priced it at 499 Euros, suggesting that it would be an addition to the lineup rather than a replacement for the current 8GB version, which sells for $399 US.
post #2 of 39
Where there is smoke, there is a fire.

Coraborated rumors implies it exists. OK 1+1 =2

So will they offer it to the US at the same time as EU. Thats why the price cut was introduced, to make room for the 3G iPhone ($499) & HSPDA iPhone ($599) both 16Gb. Out November, sell sH*t loads December. It also indicates that the current iPhone will become the intro iPhone as the newer models claim added HW functionality. At least until there is a iPhone nano anyway. I think they want the nano for the Asian market. 1st Qtr 2008.

Just musing, what do you think?

Pete
post #3 of 39
Well, the alleged leaked German T-Mobile ad has been met with a healthy dose of skepticism elsewhere, actually. I know that Engadget Mobile was all but calling it a Photoshopped fake:

http://www.engadgetmobile.com/2007/0...hone-doubtful/

Even so, we can hope that there'll be a 3G iPhone in time for the Euro launch. It's not super-difficult to do, some entry-level US phones even have 3G now, for chrissake. And we all know what backward barbarians us left-ponders are when it comes to cellphone technology.

Yet why do I still have the nagging feeling/fear that Apple will drag their feet and not do it 'til the Asian launch in mid-2008?? Augh.

Edit: On closer inspection, I have to be thinking the 'leaked' ad is prolly fake, as it says 'iPod 16GB', not 'iPhone 16GB':




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post #4 of 39
This is either a very credible rumour or great FUD. I tend to believe the FUD angle more than anything else. Who sands to gain more by having people delay their purchases of an Apple product. And now it the great price reduction fiasco, how many early adopters are going to scream bloody murder because they want to trade in their old iPhone for a better 3G phone? No good deed goes unpunished.
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post #5 of 39
I'm betting that you'll be able to get an 8GB iPhone with Edge for the current $399 and a slightly thicker 16GB with 3G and an bigger battery for $499. This would mimick the 2 sizes of iPod and would offer users a good choice.

You just couldn't have an Asian or European version of the iPhone which was perceived to be better than the one on sale in the US. And in time for Christmas too.
post #6 of 39
Everyone needs to remember that to release the 3G iPhone in the USA Apple will need a new FCC approval, which takes months to get and when they apply for this approval it is public knowledge. I.e. we will know probably 2-3 months ahead of time that a new iPhone is coming to the USA. This was the reason Apple announced the iPhone early in the first place, I would expect them to do the same for the 2nd Gen iPhone (which is the first one I think we'll see 3G in in the USA).
post #7 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The Forward Concepts report noted that semiconductor firm Infineon was likely manufacturing the transceivers needed to enable the faster connection using InterDigital's 3G technology.

No shit Sherlock.

From Interdigital's website...



http://www.interdigital.com/tech_pro...#dualmodemodem

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The purported ad also referred to the German iPhone as an "XL" model with 16GB of storage and priced it at 499 Euros, suggesting that it would be an addition to the lineup rather than a replacement for the current 8GB version, which sells for $399 US.

No it did not. XL refers to the tariff not the phone.
post #8 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by dr_lha View Post

Everyone needs to remember that to release the 3G iPhone in the USA Apple will need a new FCC approval, which takes months to get and when they apply for this approval it is public knowledge. I.e. we will know probably 2-3 months ahead of time that a new iPhone is coming to the USA. This was the reason Apple announced the iPhone early in the first place, I would expect them to do the same for the 2nd Gen iPhone (which is the first one I think we'll see 3G in in the USA).

Bogus. The iphone did not leak out from the FCC prior to launch. It's quite probable they'd do the same for a 3G version.
post #9 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

Bogus. The iphone did not leak out from the FCC prior to launch.


Not entirely true. Here's an article from May 17:

Update: iPhone wins approval from the FCC
The move clears the way for it to hit the market next month


http://www.computerworld.com/action/...e=it_blogwatch


Now, Apple did do a great job in reducing the time from FCC approval to launch to a mere six weeks (usually its more like 4-6 months), but they weren't able to black out all info from the FCC.

For example, from the same May article:

In addition, the FCC said the iPhone is a quad-band phone that supports GSM frequencies used outside the U.S. The phone uses GSM technology and the EDGE (Enhanced Data Rate for GSM Evolution) wireless data standard. Apple has said the phone will ship initially only in the U.S., but many GSM phones today, even on the low end, are capable of operating in Europe, the U.S. and Asia.

Eager would-be buyers who hoped for a faster data connection will be disappointed that the approval is only for EDGE.


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post #10 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Not entirely true. Here's an article from May 17

Weird. I don't read computerworld but usually the FCC leaks pictures and manuals like a sieve to Engadget.
post #11 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

No it did not. XL refers to the tariff not the phone.

If you look at the ad closely (which I posted in post #3), 'XL' is used to refer to both the plan and the phone.

Not that it means much. The ad may very well be fake.


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post #12 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

Weird. I don't read computerworld but usually the FCC leaks pictures and manuals like a sieve to Engadget.

Yeah, I'd agree.

The funny part is that in the run-up to launch, we had a lot of ppl here insisting up until the very last minute that 3G 'might be on the iPhone', even though the FCC approval was for EDGE.


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post #13 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

If you look at the ad closely (which I posted in post #3), 'XL' is used to refer to both the plan and the phone.

Not that it means much. The ad may very well be fake.

They use L, XL and XXL on all their phone tariffs regardless of the phone. There's no Nokia E61 XL model for example.

In the advert it says the iPhone is 499 Euro with the XL tariff. Presumably it's more expensive with L and less with XXL. Still stupidly expensive though.
post #14 of 39
Just hope they update the e-mail application soon so it is functional. :-(

3G is great for data transfer, but what are you using it for... (If the majority say You Tube, well, I guess I am back to the Blackberry.)
post #15 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

They use L, XL and XXL on all their phone tariffs regardless of the phone. There's no Nokia E61 XL model for example.

In the advert it says the iPhone is 499 Euro with the XL tariff. Presumably it's more expensive with L and less with XXL. Still stupidly expensive though.


Ah, so in Germany they scale phone prices according to what price plan you're on? Very interesting way of doing things.

I guess that means that you're not free to change your plan at any time, or that you may have to pay to do so? I don't think Americans would dig that.

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post #16 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by dr_lha View Post

Everyone needs to remember that to release the 3G iPhone in the USA Apple will need a new FCC approval, which takes months to get and when they apply for this approval it is public knowledge. I.e. we will know probably 2-3 months ahead of time that a new iPhone is coming to the USA.

Maybe more like 6 weeks. That was the gap between FCC approval and the iPhone launch last time.

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post #17 of 39
Steve, if you want to sell an iPhone to me, and many many like me in Europe, make the European version 3G or you will be shooting yourself in the foot. Cause if you don't it will literally halve your sales.
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post #18 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Ah, so in Germany they scale phone prices according to what price plan you're on? Very interesting way of doing things.

Yes. That's the case in the UK too. eg. Pay £25 a month for your 18 month plan and £219 for a Nokia N95 OR pay £45 a month and get your Nokia N95 FREE. ie. the more expensive the plan, the more subsidy.

Germany is apparently very expensive but we still don't know if that advert was fake or not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

I guess that means that you're not free to change your plan at any time, or that you may have to pay to do so? I don't think Americans would dig that.

Depends. There's that many different contracts available but in general you sign up to a year or 18 month contract and you're stuck paying it each month. If you want to change to a more expensive contract then usually they'll do it but you're starting off again with a year/18 month contract.

That's why many people buy phones outright, unlock them and then use 'Pay as you go' SIMs sold without handsets so they aren't locked in to a long contract. Because we don't pay incoming fees like you do in the USA, it's not uncommon to have a couple of phone numbers and never have to pay for them. For instance, I've got an old ex-contract phone with a PAYG SIM in it for customers to ring me like a Batphone. Costs me nothing but the price of a SIM (about £5 IIRC) and that came with £2 credit. I have to use it once every 6 months to maintain the number.
post #19 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jpmuk View Post

I'm betting that you'll be able to get an 8GB iPhone with Edge for the current $399 and a slightly thicker 16GB with 3G and an bigger battery for $499. This would mimick the 2 sizes of iPod and would offer users a good choice.

You just couldn't have an Asian or European version of the iPhone which was perceived to be better than the one on sale in the US. And in time for Christmas too.

Good call, point for point those are my thoughts exactly.

As for the people mentioning FCC leaks, can't manufacturers request applications be kept secret?
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post #20 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by razorpit View Post

Good call, point for point those are my thoughts exactly.

As for the people mentioning FCC leaks, can't manufacturers request applications be kept secret?

I'm not sure about the application but I do know Apple's kept certain details about the iPhone secret and FCC agreed to do it.
post #21 of 39
The forthcoming 3G iPhone is probably another reason for the drastic price cut by Apple. They need to clear current inventory of 2G iPhones to make room for the new model.
post #22 of 39
What makes sense to me would be a timeline like so (and thanks for the six week window for FCC clearance, I wasn't previously sure about that):

Early October. The 3G iPhone is announced for the European market with a better camera (inc. video recording) and 16GB of storage. 499 Euros and probably a bit thicker to account for the chipset and bigger battery. The EDGE iPhone will also be on sale if you don't need 3G for, say, 349 Euros. The iPhone will, of course, be operating on the 2100 MHz UMTS band. It goes into France, Germany, and the UK with the rest of Europe as deals are reached.

One More Thing Of course we wouldn't leave out the United States. So, with a projected launch date of late November/early December, the USA gets the same phone (with the only difference being it uses the UMTS frequency bands 850/1900 MHz).

Spring '08. At some special event they announce the next iteration of the iPhone. A better camera, to meet Asian standards, perhaps 24 or 32 GB of storage, an e-cash chip, perhaps GPS or perhaps digital TV (I doubt both)*and by the way Europe is also getting it. And, in a couple months, so is the USA (with North American UMTS bands, and probably minus that e-cash chipI figure a bonus e-cash chip for Europe is cheaper than making three models of 3G iPhones).
post #23 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by petermac View Post

Where there is smoke, there is a fire.

Coraborated rumors implies it exists. OK 1+1 =2

So will they offer it to the US at the same time as EU. Thats why the price cut was introduced, to make room for the 3G iPhone ($499) & HSPDA iPhone ($599) both 16Gb. Out November, sell sH*t loads December. It also indicates that the current iPhone will become the intro iPhone as the newer models claim added HW functionality. At least until there is a iPhone nano anyway. I think they want the nano for the Asian market. 1st Qtr 2008.

Just musing, what do you think?

Pete

So the five year exclusive agreement with at&t is what, just an illusion? It never was announced and never happened?
post #24 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

So the five year exclusive agreement with at&t is what, just an illusion? It never was announced and never happened?


The ATT exclusive is only for the US market. In Europe and Asia, Apple is free to partner with other carriers.

And even in the US, the ATT exclusive may not actually be five years. Some articles that came out not long afterwards were saying things that seemed to imply more like two years for the exclusive, with an option to go five years, presumably if both parties agreed.

If so, I wouldn't expect Apple to agree to an extension. ATT is only about 25% of the US market. I'm sure Apple would like to sell to the entire US market, as soon as it could.

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post #25 of 39
Cringely called it back in July. The X-mas 3G surprise, that is.

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2...12_002475.html
post #26 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by astrosmash View Post

Cringely called it back in July. The X-mas 3G surprise, that is.

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2...12_002475.html


From Cringley's article:

Certainly I was wrong about my hopeful prediction that Apple had 3G hidden inside the current iPhone and could simply wake it up with a firmware change.


Ah. So he's the dumbass who started that (incredibly wrong, incredibly persistent) rumor. \

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post #27 of 39
I can't believe all the jerks guessing Apple will add GPS and go to 3G in the U.S. despite AT$T and all the money they make..... or that they would spring a 3G new phone on everyone IN NOVEMBER THIS YEAR?

Has everyone just taken leave of their senses?
Apple has had this planned since December of last year.
They plan a year ahead.

The iPhone launch and setting it up for the Christmas season, because THAT'S where they make all their money.

New iMacs ready to roll and timed for the Christmas season, because THAT'S where they make all their money.

New iBooks ready to roll and timed for the Christmas season, because THAT'S where they make all their money.

New iPods ready to roll and timed for the Christmas season, because THAT's where they make all their money.

New OS X ready to roll and timed for the Christmas season, because THAT'S where they make all their money.

You guys think they'll rethink everything in a few weeks?
Turn their plans on a dime to add.... what a GPS? or a better camera? more memory?

You're ALL CRAZY!

This is the new line. Every product they have is new and ready to go.
They will not reinvent the line-up until spring at the earliest.
They're gonna sell 50 million iPod chubbies next quarter.

Sit back and relax.
You're not gonna see a 3G iPhone running on AT$T with GPS, a much improved camera and double the memory in just a few weeks from now.
You sound so stupid to even be talking about it much less reposting fake jpeg ad-sheets.
The author must be laughing at ALL of you.
post #28 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by wbrasington View Post

I can't believe all the jerks guessing Apple will add GPS and go to 3G in the U.S. despite AT$T and all the money they make..... or that they would spring a 3G new phone on everyone IN NOVEMBER THIS YEAR?

Has everyone just taken leave of their senses?
Apple has had this planned since December of last year.
They plan a year ahead.

The iPhone launch and setting it up for the Christmas season, because THAT'S where they make all their money.

New iMacs ready to roll and timed for the Christmas season, because THAT'S where they make all their money.

etc etc

You guys think they'll rethink everything in a few weeks?
Turn their plans on a dime to add.... what a GPS? or a better camera? more memory?

You're ALL CRAZY!


This is the new line. Every product they have is new and ready to go.
They will not reinvent the line-up until spring at the earliest.
They're gonna sell 50 million iPod chubbies next quarter.

Sit back and relax.
You're not gonna see a 3G iPhone running on AT$T with GPS, a much improved camera and double the memory in just a few weeks from now.

You sound so stupid to even be talking about it much less reposting fake jpeg ad-sheets.

The author must be laughing at ALL of you.







Relax and take a deep breath, sparky.

If I had to bet, I'd put my money down on 3G not happening 'til the Asian iPhone launch in mid-'08. But if it did happen for the Euro launch, I would not exactly faint from shock.

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post #29 of 39
Of course there is a 3G iphone on the way before xmas. lol

Did you really think that Apple would send out a GSM iphone for its European launch? Come of it they arnt dumb.
post #30 of 39
Xmas? more like, September 18th possibly...

http://www.macformat.co.uk/page/macf..._no_longer_the
post #31 of 39
What he said:

post #32 of 39
My worry:

1. 3G iPhone gets released for the European launch in a few weeks
2. In the US, Apple keeps on selling the 2.5G iPhone while the 3G iPhone is available in Europe, with no immediate announcement as to when the 3G model will hit the US
3. Millions howl.



You'd think it'd be unlikely that they'd do that, as obviously US iPhone sales would fall lots as ppl waited for a 3G US model, but still, it's kinda like being between a rock and a hard place for Apple.

Why? Because if they get a 3G model out for the Euro launch, well, what's the OTHER scenario? Immediate availability of the 3G model in the US as well? Great. Now we'll have a wave of ppl screaming that they "just paid 400 bucks for an iPhone, and got SCREWED" because the 3G model came along only a few weeks later. And the ppl who paid 600 bucks got 'double screwed', by overpaying AND being obsoleted so quickly on top of it. You get the idea.

This is the sort of stuff that makes me think maybe Apple won't go 3G 'til the Asian launch in mid-'08. But if they don't, then Euro customers will be upset over the launch iPhone being only 2.5G. \

No matter what Apple does, someone's gonna be very unhappy. It's enough to make Steve Jobs want to kick a puppy.




Don't do it Steve! We're adorable!

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post #33 of 39
Right, Apple just knocked down the price on its iPhone $200. In the process, all the early adopters threw a fit. Now Apple several months later is going to come out with a 3G version? I do not think so. Apple dropped the price on the current model to spur holiday sales. After the holidays, Apple will introduce a 3G model to spur post holiday sales.
post #34 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TerrinB View Post

Right, Apple just knocked down the price on its iPhone $200. In the process, all the early adopters threw a fit. Now Apple several months later is going to come out with a 3G version? I do not think so. Apple dropped the price on the current model to spur holiday sales. After the holidays, Apple will introduce a 3G model to spur post holiday sales.

It could be,
but I would not be surprise that prior to the holidays we have a 16gig and 3G iPhone.

People will whine no matter what Apple does, so why bother. Bring it on!
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post #35 of 39
It was always going to be this way though. And you cant really kick up a fuss when we get the 3g version with possible more memory either as the USA hasnt really taken on 3G as much as in Europe. Im sure the iphone sucessor will come in a 3G only version which will be rolled out to all countries instead of different variants.
post #36 of 39
It's perfectly normal though for Europe to get 3G models way before the USA. We have a different 3G frequency band in Europe. Nokia's N95 was out in March, the US release was this month apparently although carriers haven't picked it up. Sometimes the USA doesn't get the 3G models at all.

So, I'd say Apple could quite possibly release a Euro 3G iPhone and tell Americans that their version won't be out till after Xmas. Some people will whinge. Some people will not buy a non 3G phone and some people will still buy as 3G isn't important to them in the USA or they've absolutely no idea why 3G is a good thing.

3G is more important here (since EDGE is so poorly spread) but I imagine Apple would still find buyers here even without it and I think that also is a very strong possibility. See AppleTV - released here with no iTunes Movies or shows. Apple quite often has it's head up it's arse when it releases European product despite the infrastructure not being there.
post #37 of 39
I don't think 3G is coming to the States until AT&T increases its availability. It's only available in metropolitan areas, whereas EDGE is available pretty much nationwide.
post #38 of 39
From this article, it looks like the UK iphone may be EDGE too and not 3G:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/09/14/o2_edge/
post #39 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Why? Because if they get a 3G model out for the Euro launch, well, what's the OTHER scenario? Immediate availability of the 3G model in the US as well? Great. Now we'll have a wave of ppl screaming that they "just paid 400 bucks for an iPhone, and got SCREWED" because the 3G model came along only a few weeks later. And the ppl who paid 600 bucks got 'double screwed', by overpaying AND being obsoleted so quickly on top of it. You get the idea.

for me this raises the question: why is it that apple cops this kind of reaction whereas other phone manufacturers release new models all the time and no one bats an eyelid? strange...
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