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Caris & Co. projects Macs sales to top 12 million in 2009

post #1 of 13
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Investment bank Caris & Company increased its price target on shares of Apple Inc. to $175 from $165 on Monday, citing strong sales of the company's Mac line and expectations of continued growth in the personal computer market for the foreseeable future.

In a research note to client investors, analyst Shebly Seyrafi initiated a 24 percent increase in his Mac sales forecast for the Cupertino-based company's 2009 calendar year, saying he expects the company to ship 12.1 million Macs during the twelve month period, up from his previous projection of 9.8 million units.

"Recent new Mac products -- MacBook, iMac -- along with Leopard shipping in October promise continued Mac momentum," he wrote.

To go along with his increased Mac sales estimate, the analyst also tweaked his iPhone model, saying he now expects the company to ship over 27.6 million iPhones in 2009, up from 27.1 million units.

"The recent the $200 price reduction on the iPhone (which resulted in Apple proclaiming in early September that it already shipped over 1 million iPhones) was the correct move by the company as it allowed [sic] the prior price point was too high for consumers," he wrote.

The analyst made no changes to his expectations for iPod sales in 2009, which remain at a bullish 84.1 million units. His calendar year 2008 Mac, iPhone and iPod unit forecasts are currently listed at 9 million, 12.5 million, and 64.5 million units, respectively.

"We remain bullish on Apple's stock as the company has multiple levers to drive growth going forward: new iPod models, geographic expansion (in Europe starting in November, in Asia in 2008), and new Macs launched earlier this year," Seyrafi told clients.

In raising his 12-month price target on the company's shares, the analyst also bumped his fiscal 2007, 2008, and 2009 per-share earnings estimates to $3.91, $4.61, and $5.48 from $3.87, $4.47 and $5.08, respectively.

For Apple's just-ended September quarter, results of which will be announced later this month, Seyrafi is expecting the company to announce per-share earnings of $0.98 on revenues of $6.24 billion, which would include projected sales of 1.4 million iPhones, 11.5 million iPods, and just over 2 million Macs.
post #2 of 13
Thrilled to hear this
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #3 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

In a research note to client investors, analyst Shebly Seyrafi initiated a 24 percent increase in his Mac sales forecast for the Cupertino-based company's 2009 calendar year, saying he expects the company to ship 12.1 million Macs during the twelve month period, up from his previous projection of 9.8 million units.

But that does not take into account The Great PC Meltdown of 2008. You know, the one that is going to happen at the end of 2008... when all the PCs melt due to a software flaw in Windows...
That will have the Mac share skyrocket in 1 day to 96.4%! And Apple will sell 450 million macbooks for the holiday season that year...
I could be wrong in my predictions too you know, most things don't happen the way you predict them to... even if you do some research.
post #4 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

But that does not take into account The Great PC Meltdown of 2008. You know, the one that is going to happen at the end of 2008... when all the PCs melt due to a software flaw in Windows...
That will have the Mac share skyrocket in 1 day to 96.4%! And Apple will sell 450 million macbooks for the holiday season that year...
I could be wrong in my predictions too you know, most things don't happen the way you predict them to... even if you do some research.

I'll see your bet and raise it another 450 million.
post #5 of 13
Not that I'd mind if this happened...

But seriously, first let these guys correctly predict what Mac sales will be for the next two quarters. If they can't do that, how is it they might be able to predict something even further out?

Maybe this is a bunch of legitimate guys trying to make honest predictions, but it brings to mind something you'd hear in medical school sometimes when somebody would be arguing that a patient has something terribly unlikely: "If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But if I'm right, I'm a genius." And if you're wrong, you figure people will forget after awhile; when you're right, you'll remind everybody, every chance you get. Still pretty damned cynical, though.
post #6 of 13
This guy needs to chill out a bit. Bullish? The man's a matador.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #7 of 13
I don't see the estimates as being too high, except possibly for the iPods, which I think might be closer to 72 million.

I think that the Mac sales could be even higher. We could see 12.5 to 13 million in sales that year.

If Leopard goes over well, and Apple's other "legs" do well, the halo effect, which is now agreed to be real, will pull the Mac sales up higher.

This will be true particularly if MS fails to resolve Vista's problems by then, which is 50/50.
post #8 of 13
How much revenue does Apple get from software? Don't know just asking.
post #9 of 13
His projections might seem high but they have a really strong product line and I haven't seen or even heard of anything that truly competes with them in the cpu, mobile phone, or media player markets if you look at end user experience.

I would definitely agree on the $175 target, in fact I would argue it should be a bit higher, unless you are assuming the market as a whole tanks. Just think about the xmas season and how ready their whole lineup is for it.

They better advertise their tush off...
post #10 of 13
what pc melddown??? and why, i know enterprise is very resistant to vista, that's why xp is extended. explain in detail
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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post #11 of 13
I'm pushing for 15-20 million?
post #12 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

what pc melddown??? and why, i know enterprise is very resistant to vista, that's why xp is extended. explain in detail

I don't think that poster was being serious.

As for Vista, I think we can officially call it DOA. The moment it came out, serials and activation could be easily hacked with the "2099 rearm", basically, changing the date, oldest, oldest hack in the book.

A year out, and today I see a Dell ad in the newspaper, all the PCs being offered come with "Windows XP Home" and there are various offer upgrades to "Windows XP Professional". No mention of Vista *anywhere* else except for "Dell recommends Windows Vista Business" because, I think Dell is obligated to put that one line somewhere.

But HP, Dell, etc, I think they have copped a lot of sh1t from users for Crapsta. Not just business: small enterprise and home users are sick of this Vista rubbish. Honestly, it is pretty tragic... from an "state of the IT industry" point of view. And SUN just became a Windows OEM... Ah, glad to know my chosen vocation in the Mac world has a good few years (decades? heh) ahead of it...?
post #13 of 13
Apple is quickly approaching the Tipping Point (A great book if you haven't read it).

People have finally had it with computers that just don't work. It took a while but Apple is finally reaching that elusive tipping point where people who would never switch and starting to soften their position and the tidal wave of people jumping ship on Microsoft is about to happen.

Thank you Mr. Jobs.

Someone give that man some more AAPL options, but please don't post date them!
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