or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Piper Jaffray ups Apple target to $250, sees sales of 45M iPhones in 09
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Piper Jaffray ups Apple target to $250, sees sales of 45M iPhones in 09

post #1 of 55
Thread Starter 
Investment bank Piper Jaffray on Thursday maintained its extremely bullish outlook Apple Inc., raising its price target on shares of the company once again to $250 from $222, saying it remains confident in predictions that iPhone sales will increase to 45 million a year by calendar year 2009.

"We have constructed a model that we believe reflects the impact of iPhone booked revenue and AT&T revenue share in the coming years," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to client investors. "Based on this model, we continue to believe that the iPhone and the revenue share agreement will be more impactful in '09 and beyond than currently factored into consensus thinking."

The analyst sees iPhone sales of 3.4 million, 12.9 million, and 45.0 million in calendar years 2007, 2008, and CY09, respectively. While his 2007 and 2008 estimates are in line with the general consensus on Wall Street, his aggressive forecast for 2009 is based on the belief that the average price of the touch-screen handsets will fall gradually over the next two years, from $400 currently to $370 by the end of 2008 and $300 by the end of 2009.

Based on data from Apple's recently-reported September quarter, Munster believes the current revenue sharing agreement between AT&T and Apple requires a revenue share payment of $18 per sub per month to Apple, which is "materially higher" than his original expectation of approximately $6.50 per sub per month.

"We are taking a conservative approach to the revenue share agreement and assuming that by the end of 2009 the monthly payment to Apple will be $9.00 per sub per month," he wrote.

Based on these assumptions, the analyst said recognized revenue in 2009 from the iPhone AT&T revenue share agreement would total approximately $4.8 billion. Even assuming a gross margin of 80 percent on the monthly payments from AT&T, operating income resulting from the AT&T revenue sharing agreement would be $3.9 billion in 2009, he said.

"In other words, revenue from AT&T payments in 2009 would add 60 percent to Apple operating income if we applied an 80 percent gross margin to AT&T revenue share revenue and assumed no additional opex from AT&T revenue share," Munster wrote. "Our model takes a more conservative approach and assumes AT&T revenue share revenue is run through the model at normal corporate gross and operating margins."

In his note to investors Thursday, the Piper Jaffray analyst also pointed out that iPhone is currently sold at just 2000 distribution points, which are comprised of approximately 200 Apple retail stores and 1,800 AT&T stores. Given that Apple maintains over 40,000 distribution points for its iPod digital media players, he believe the Cupertino-based company could easily expand distribution of iPhones in every country that has iPhone availability.

"This would be made possible by the fact that the iPhone is activated using iTunes on a user's personal computer -- not through in-store activation," he wrote. "As such, buying an iPhone is equally as simple as buying an iPod from a logistical standpoint. Therefore, it is possible for Apple to rapidly expand iPhone distribution throughout the world in countries with iPhone availability, which would likely serve as another catalyst to iPhone sales."

While the timing of Apple's roll-out of the iPhone beyond Apple and AT&T retail stores is difficult to pinpoint, Munster believes there will clearly be an appetite from other retailers whenever that time comes.

To help drive sales going forward, the analyst expects Apple will offer new and innovative iPhone features, like 3G internet connectivity and possibly GPS navigation, at the lower price points.

Shares of Apple were trading up $0.99 or just over half a percent to $185.93 in early morning trading on the Nasdaq stock market.
post #2 of 55
Eh, 45M is a little hard to believe, in my opinion, more specifically that a price shift to $300 for an "entry-level" iPhone is going to make THAT big of a difference. Extrapolating the H2'07 numbers for a full year, 2007 may have around 7M phones. Then, they basically double in '08 to 12M? Then quadruple in '09 to 45M?? I don't think so...

Apple will reduce the price of the iPhone and make it much easier to join the ecosystem... however, the cost of the iPhone is unimportant compared to AT&T's service cost. If that remains as-is, even the cheapest plan ($1440 over two years) will total $1740 rather than $1840... a cost difference of about 5.5%.

The iPhone is an investment. Investments are not easy things to make, especially when they cost around $2000. Chipping a hundred bucks or so off that price isn't going to make a big difference, whereas with an iPod, if you reduce the price from $400 to $300, you're saving 25%.

Basically what I'm saying is that if you can't afford $1840, you can't afford $1740.

Oh, and I highly doubt Apple ever pricing the iPhone at $370.

Analysts.

-Clive
My Mod: G4 Cube + Atom 330 CPU + Wiimote = Ultimate HTPC!
(Might I recommend the Libertarian Party as a good compromise between the equally terrible "DnR"?)
Reply
My Mod: G4 Cube + Atom 330 CPU + Wiimote = Ultimate HTPC!
(Might I recommend the Libertarian Party as a good compromise between the equally terrible "DnR"?)
Reply
post #3 of 55
Eventhough I bought stock when it was well under $100, I think I'll suck it up and buy some more.
post #4 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Investment bank Piper Jaffray on Thursday maintained its extremely bullish outlook Apple Inc., raising its price target on shares of the company once again to $250 from $222, saying it remains confident in predictions that iPhone sales will increase to 45 million a year by calendar year 2009.

I think it's a nice product, I really do plan to get one eventually, but that's an extraordinarily quick acceleration for just about anything. It looks like it took five years for iPod sales to exceed 45M in one year, that was a wonderkind story, and these guys think it's going to happen with the iPhone line in half that time?
post #5 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I think it's a nice product, I really do plan to get one eventually, but that's an extraordinarily quick acceleration for just about anything. It looks like it took five years for iPod sales to exceed 45M in one year, that was a wonderkind story, and these guys think it's going to happen with the iPhone line in half that time?


Once you have one you will understand. Also keep in mind that everyone needs a cell phone vs not everyone wants an iPod.

There have been several surveys that indicate accelerated growth with a drop in price.
post #6 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I think it's a nice product, I really do plan to get one eventually, but that's an extraordinarily quick acceleration for just about anything. It looks like it took five years for iPod sales to exceed 45M in one year, that was a wonderkind story, and these guys think it's going to happen with the iPhone line in half that time?

Well, first people needed to be convinced they needed an iPod.
Everybody already has a cellphone, so making the leap to iPhone isn't as difficult.

Second, the phone market is a lot bigger than the music player market.

Third, Apple has established themselves as a top-tier brand and everybody has heard of them.
This wasn't the case 4-5 years ago when consumers were skeptical of Apple.
post #7 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

To help drive sales going forward, the analyst expects Apple will offer new and innovative iPhone features, like 3G internet connectivity and possibly GPS navigation, at the lower price points.

GPS is the killer app I'm waiting for. Apple could dominate yet another product segment.
Apple should make a GPS module that can sit on your dashboard and send the coordinates via bluetooth to the iPhone which displays the slick mapping interface. They should also create a mapping app to add to iLife.
post #8 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by g5man View Post

Once you have one you will understand.

Do you understand how lame and cultish that statement sounds? It also assumes that I haven't tried it. That's not true.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

Also keep in mind that everyone needs a cell phone vs not everyone wants an iPod.

Even for a phone, it's not that common. I'm not sure if such acceleration has ever happened with any phone.
post #9 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Do you understand how lame and cultish that statement sounds? It also assumes that I haven't tried it. That's not true.



Even for a phone, it's not that common. I'm not sure if such acceleration has ever happened with any phone.


Fair enough. Why have you not bought one yet? What do you not like about it?
post #10 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

GPS is the killer app I'm waiting for. Apple could dominate yet another product segment.
Apple should make a GPS module that can sit on your dashboard and send the coordinates via bluetooth to the iPhone which displays the slick mapping interface. They should also create a mapping app to add to iLife.

I think that can be a niche that can be filled by a third party product & third party software, assuming Apple offers a way for third parties to connect through the Bluetooth radio.
post #11 of 55
Are you sure this guy meant 45 million units or 45M in revenue?

The iPhone will do well, but 45M units sound completely out of whack...maybe more like 4.5 M units.
post #12 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by g5man View Post

Fair enough. Why have you not bought one yet? What do you not like about it?

I'm not even halfway through a contract with another company, and I didn't want to buy a first-generation product. The third party software concern may be alleviated, and by the time my contract comes up, I hope there will be faster cellular networking.

Even though those concerns will likely evaporate before 2009, I'm still skeptical of the 2009 estimates. It's not impossible, but they seem unrealistic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by satchmo View Post

Are you sure this guy meant 45 million units or 45M in revenue?

The iPhone will do well, but 45M units sound completely out of whack...maybe more like 4.5 M units.

In a year? I think that's low-balling it, if iPod sales held steady then that rate is probably already being achieved. I think 4.5M units in a quarter would be realistic growth.
post #13 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I'm not even halfway through a contract with another company, and I didn't want to buy a first-generation product. The third party software concern may be alleviated, and by the time my contract comes up, I hope there will be faster cellular networking.

Bing

There are millions like you. I have heard it over and over again and surveys confirm it. There are those who don't mind buying the first generation and are already ATT subscribers like myself. There are those who can not afford buying one right now. There are those are waiting for their contracts to expire because they don't want to pay the $150 termination fee. And there are even bigger numbers of those who just want more features like bigger memory, better services.

When you combine all those categories I think you will see the numbers climb rather quickly.
post #14 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Even though those concerns will probably totally evaporate before 2009, I'm still skeptical of the 2009 estimates. It's not impossible, but they seem unrealistic.

120M iPods sold in 6 years vs. 1,000M cellphones sold this year alone.
The iPod has already laid the foundation.
There are 200 Apple Stores now and 1800 AT&T kiosks showcasing the iPhone.
Apple has become iconic again
There are 3 more countries selling the phone next month and more coming next year.
The iPhone uses Windows iTunes from the start. (ie: It's not just an Mac-related product)
Jobs was told that he couldn't make a phone His ego alone will push the iPhone to record sales
*Like you, some people are still under contract
Like you, some stay away from first generation products
The SDK will increase sales
2G iPhone with 3G will increase sales
The UI f@#kin rocks
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #15 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by satchmo View Post

Are you sure this guy meant 45 million units or 45M in revenue?

The iPhone will do well, but 45M units sound completely out of whack...maybe more like 4.5 M units.

Golly u guys are funny ... i come here to get informed a little and get a good chuckle at the same time ... way to go Kasper ...i love your site ,,,he meant 45 million units lol. I bought my stock at $30 a share,, giggle giggle,,i ain't sellin till Steve screws up severely.


my wife hates Apple so much she is putting in a new 70 thousand dollar kitchen. She might hate hearing the subject come up 5 times a day , but she loves spending the money ,,, giggle giggle
post #16 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clive At Five View Post

Eh, 45M is a little hard to believe, in my opinion, more specifically that a price shift to $300 for an "entry-level" iPhone is going to make THAT big of a difference. Extrapolating the H2'07 numbers for a full year, 2007 may have around 7M phones. Then, they basically double in '08 to 12M? Then quadruple in '09 to 45M?? I don't think so...

Your post missed a couple of big (and obvious) things. In the paragraph above, you fail to note that the iPhone will go from a USA only product (potential market of ATT users - 40 million or so) to a worldwide product. Each large country (England, France, Germany all count, and many more will follow) it launches in essentially adds another USA sized market to sell to.

Not to mention that 2007, with 7M, is only half the year for sales. So a whole year next year, with a potential market probably extending close to 200M, compared to this year where you have 40M for 6 months + another 50-60M (guessing) for just 2 months... gee, doubling 7M doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?

Quote:
Apple will reduce the price of the iPhone and make it much easier to join the ecosystem... however, the cost of the iPhone is unimportant compared to AT&T's service cost. If that remains as-is, even the cheapest plan ($1440 over two years) will total $1740 rather than $1840... a cost difference of about 5.5%.

Very logical of you, but wrong.

You don't really think that cell phone buyers consider that they are investing that much do you? And really, they aren't - because they are going to have a cell phone plan anyway, so upgrading from that crappy RAZR to an iPhone really does cost them just the price of the phone. Yeah you add the data plan, but given how useful the iPhone is, $20 per month really isn't much.

Quote:
Oh, and I highly doubt Apple ever pricing the iPhone at $370.

That's a weighted average price. Apple will not keep just 1 model of the phone forever.
post #17 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

GPS is the killer app I'm waiting for. Apple could dominate yet another product segment.
Apple should make a GPS module that can sit on your dashboard and send the coordinates via bluetooth to the iPhone which displays the slick mapping interface. They should also create a mapping app to add to iLife.

That would be great!!!!
post #18 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Your post missed a couple of big (and obvious) things. In the paragraph above, you fail to note that the iPhone will go from a USA only product (potential market of ATT users - 40 million or so) to a worldwide product. Each large country (England, France, Germany all count, and many more will follow) it launches in essentially adds another USA sized market to sell to.

Yes, I realized that I neglected to add worldwide sales after I posted, but I still don't think 45M is even plausible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Not to mention that 2007, with 7M, is only half the year for sales. So a whole year next year, with a potential market probably extending close to 200M, compared to this year where you have 40M for 6 months + another 50-60M (guessing) for just 2 months... gee, doubling 7M doesn't seem so crazy now, does it?

I accounted for the half year. 2007 total sales are projected at 3.4 million. I figured with a launch in jate June, double the number and then some, thus 7M units. I could see it feasible for Apple to sell 12 million units in 2008, but unlikely. I'd be willing to estimate as much as 75% growth year-over-year which gives 12.25M for 2008 but just 21.4M for 2009. Still a very large number if you ask me... for a total of 5% of the already-established cell phone market? That's very impressive.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Very logical of you, but wrong.

You don't really think that cell phone buyers consider that they are investing that much do you? And really, they aren't - because they are going to have a cell phone plan anyway, so upgrading from that crappy RAZR to an iPhone really does cost them just the price of the phone. Yeah you add the data plan, but given how useful the iPhone is, $20 per month really isn't much.

I consider the entire price. If you (or anyone else) doesn't, I would consider it poor planning and pseudo reckless spending. Before I signed up for high-speed internet (I'm newly out on my own) I calculated how much it would be a year and asked myself if it was worth it to have fast internet at that price. I've been doing the same with my phone which will soon expire on my parents' plan. It's not even that I'm a stingy bastard. I'm just a careful spender.

And it shouldn't just apply to those newly on their own. If my wife and I were on a regular AT&T family plan right now, we'd be paying $60/month. Maybe a little more for a text message apckage. If we were going to switch to an iPhone plan, it would be over $40 more. PER MONTH. For two years, that's a difference of almost a thousand dollars, which is a significant enough portion of my income to say it's not worth it. (This is where unlocking could come into play nicely, but that's another argument.)

-Clive
My Mod: G4 Cube + Atom 330 CPU + Wiimote = Ultimate HTPC!
(Might I recommend the Libertarian Party as a good compromise between the equally terrible "DnR"?)
Reply
My Mod: G4 Cube + Atom 330 CPU + Wiimote = Ultimate HTPC!
(Might I recommend the Libertarian Party as a good compromise between the equally terrible "DnR"?)
Reply
post #19 of 55
Gene increases the aapl stock price to $250 for 2008. I don't have a problem with that. I predicted $200.00 by Thanksgiving this year back when aapl was swooning at $135.00 on September 6th. Let's see stock split, or how about a dividend with 15 billion in cash and no debt outstanding. Leopard is OK but not much greater than Tiger. Let's see what the stores look like Friday night. Amzn knows how to make sales. But they don't know how to make a profit. Amzn is a nice $25.00 stock. The Amzn MP3 download sales will help keep the itunes site from crashing. More ipods will be sold. Last quarter aapl sold their 120 millionth ipod. They sold 10,200,000 ipods in the last quarter. That's over 120,000 per day now. The ipod touch is predicted to be this years "tickle me Elmo". The portable Macs are hot on the college level. The ipod is the number one brand for teenagers in England. The iphone is revolutionary. It does not sell at a discount. Plus aapl gets a cut from the carrier. Nokia expects that the mobile device market volume will be approximately 1.1 billion units in 2007, up from the approximately 978 million units Nokia estimated for 2006. That includes ipods and iphones. Steve jobs says aapl will sell 10 million iphones by the end of 2008. But, 45 million in 2009.....WOW what a number.
post #20 of 55
Why on earth would you want a split or a dividend? This is a growth stock right now. A split is pointless and Apple needs to keep investing in innovation, not paying dividends. It's already done right by its shareholders via the stock price, so there is no need to pay dividends.

Quote:
Originally Posted by artman1033 View Post

Gene increases the aapl stock price to $250 for 2008. I don't have a problem with that. I predicted $200.00 by Thanksgiving this year back when aapl was swooning at $135.00 on September 6th. Let's see stock split, or how about a dividend with 15 billion in cash and no debt outstanding. Leopard is OK but not much greater than Tiger. Let's see what the stores look like Friday night. Amzn knows how to make sales. But they don't know how to make a profit. Amzn is a nice $25.00 stock. The Amzn MP3 download sales will help keep the itunes site from crashing. More ipods will be sold. Last quarter aapl sold their 120 millionth ipod. They sold 10,200,000 ipods in the last quarter. That's over 120,000 per day now. The ipod touch is predicted to be this years "tickle me Elmo". The portable Macs are hot on the college level. The ipod is the number one brand for teenagers in England. The iphone is revolutionary. It does not sell at a discount. Plus aapl gets a cut from the carrier. Nokia expects that the mobile device market volume will be approximately 1.1 billion units in 2007, up from the approximately 978 million units Nokia estimated for 2006. That includes ipods and iphones. Steve jobs says aapl will sell 10 million iphones by the end of 2008. But, 45 million in 2009.....WOW what a number.
post #21 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by moracity View Post

Why on earth would you want a split or a dividend? This is a growth stock right now. A split is pointless and Apple needs to keep investing in innovation, not paying dividends. It's already done right by its shareholders via the stock price, so there is no need to pay dividends.


Because aapl has become a cash cow.....MOO
post #22 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by moracity View Post

Apple needs to keep investing in innovation, not paying dividends. It's already done right by its shareholders via the stock price, so there is no need to pay dividends.

I don't think Apple is investing its $15B into innovation, that's an accumulation of what's left over. That has been invested too, but not into innovation as far as I know.
post #23 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by crees! View Post

Eventhough I bought stock when it was well under $100, I think I'll suck it up and buy some more.

I'd wait for a bigger drop.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #24 of 55
It's sad to see what is being sold off as "advanced" in terms of functionality in the US. Even the average cell phone in China these days has GPS, etc., etc.....

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #25 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Your post missed a couple of big (and obvious) things. In the paragraph above, you fail to note that the iPhone will go from a USA only product (potential market of ATT users - 40 million or so) to a worldwide product. Each large country (England, France, Germany all count, and many more will follow) it launches in essentially adds another USA sized market to sell to.

No, adding those countries is not like adding another US sized market. Combined it may equal ONE US sized market, but its still a stretch.
post #26 of 55
How exactly does a stock price target work? Does Piper Jaffray mean that the stock will hit $250 by this time next year? If it hits $250 in 2008 when selling 12.9 million iPhones, imagine what it will be at if Apple really does sell 45 million units in calendar year 2009.
post #27 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by one9deuce View Post

How exactly does a stock price target work? Does Piper Jaffray mean that the stock will hit $250 by this time next year? If it hits $250 in 2008 when selling 12.9 million iPhones, imagine what it will be at if Apple really does sell 45 million units in calendar year 2009.

Most "target" prices I've heard about are 12 months out. It's always an estimate of what the price will be at that time. A lot of things can happen in 12 months that can change the value that can't always be accounted for when the estimate was made.
post #28 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuBeck View Post

No, adding those countries is not like adding another US sized market. Combined it may equal ONE US sized market, but its still a stretch.

US has 300 mil
England has 51 mil
France has 61 mil
Germany has 82 mil

Granted those three countries make up roughly 2/3 of US population but EU has 500 mil total. Now let's talk about Asia:
Korea 50 mil
Japan 127 mil
India 1.1 bil
China 1.3 bil

It is not at all a stretch for AAPL to sell 45 mil iPhones by end of 2009.
post #29 of 55
I think 45M is an underestimate. I suspect it will be nearer 60M worldwide in '09. Arithmetic ratio increases are perfectly possible in the mobile phone market and, unlike Motorola, Apple are masters at managing a hot product cycle.
post #30 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by satchmo View Post

Are you sure this guy meant 45 million units or 45M in revenue?

The iPhone will do well, but 45M units sound completely out of whack...maybe more like 4.5 M units.

Even Apple said it would sell 10 million by the end of next year-- he really, actually, truly MEANT 45 million iPhones for 2009!!!
post #31 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by one9deuce View Post

How exactly does a stock price target work? Does Piper Jaffray mean that the stock will hit $250 by this time next year? If it hits $250 in 2008 when selling 12.9 million iPhones, imagine what it will be at if Apple really does sell 45 million units in calendar year 2009.

Bingo

That is why Piper Jaffray is the only WS firm that has it figured out. By 09 this stock could be 500+
post #32 of 55
Quote:
It's sad to see what is being sold off as "advanced" in terms of functionality in the US. Even the average cell phone in China these days has GPS, etc., etc.....

I don't know if I would automatiaclly tag a phone with GPS as "advnaced". This assumes any phone with GPS performs as well as every other phone without GPS. That there is no trade off to use GPS in phone size or battery efficiency.
post #33 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by esp211 View Post

US has 300 mil
England has 51 mil
France has 61 mil
Germany has 82 mil

Granted those three countries make up roughly 2/3 of US population but EU has 500 mil total. Now let's talk about Asia:
Korea 50 mil
Japan 127 mil
India 1.1 bil
China 1.3 bil

It is not at all a stretch for AAPL to sell 45 mil iPhones by end of 2009.

The reason I said that adding those countries accounts for another USA sized country is because of the far higher cell phone penetration and for the most part, less focus on contracts and early cancellation fees (thus enabling more people to be free to look at the iPhone). The third factor is that those countries' users are far more used to paying a premium for a premium phone, from what I understand, vs US customers who on the whole are far more used to getting a crappy phone for free for signing a long term contract.

I realize it's not exact, but I think just looking at total citizens misses a LOT of the point when talking about the high end cell phone market.
post #34 of 55
This is a good example of pump and dump that so-called "impartial" pundits engage in.

The stock market is a ponzi scheme, and it only sustains itself because there ever a new generation of suckers to perpetuate it.
post #35 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by augur View Post

This is a good example of pump and dump that so-called "impartial" pundits engage in.

The stock market is a ponzi scheme, and it only sustains itself because there ever a new generation of suckers to perpetuate it.

Must be rough only earning 4% on your investments
post #36 of 55
augur, apparently you don't understand the stockmarket. A private business has an IPO (initial public offering) and the company is then owned by the shareholders. If the company grows then the company is worth more, if the company is worth more the shares are worth more. It's really not that hard.

Apple is growing so the stock is going up accordingly.
post #37 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by esp211 View Post

India 1.1 bil
China 1.3 bil

It is not at all a stretch for AAPL to sell 45 mil iPhones by end of 2009.


India and China? ... sorry but that was a laugh out loud post for me... you're talking about countries with some serious poverty issues. The China's GDP in 2006 was 20% that of the United States and ranked 110th of 183 nations in 2005. And India, 1 in every 4 people in India is below the poverty level. The iPhone is geared toward people with average to above average incomes (by US standards) this is not a device that will do great in India. Granted they are one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the World Bank still classifies them as a low-income economy. These are two countries that have a monumental amount of catching up to do. You can't just go throwing around number without looking at the demographics.

I do understand everyone's zeal for the iPhone and their desires for it to be incredibly successful, but 2009 is a long ways away, and 45M is a very impressive number. I can't see it happening, not in '09 anyways.
post #38 of 55
A message to those posting the country's population in order to see if Apple can sell 45M iPhones through 2009:

You are going about this the wrong way.

If you wish to find out about the actual numbers you first need to determine the number of subscribers for each respective carrier in each respective country. Then assign a possible percentage of saturation (say 2%) for that carrier.

If the country has laws that prevent locking you'll have to determine the number of cell phone subscribers. Now, because of the increased price for unlocked countries you may want to consider financial demographics, too. This means an overall lower per capita purchase, especially especially among countries with a large lower class.

This will obviously take a little research but you I'm betting that some of the analysts have already done this. I don't think 45M is too lofty a goal per the reasons I stated in an early post.

Anyone there will willing to take the time to run the numbers?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #39 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by HyteProsector View Post

India and China? ... sorry but that was a laugh out loud post for me... you're talking about countries with some serious poverty issues. The China's GDP in 2006 was 20% that of the United States and ranked 110th of 183 nations in 2005. And India, 1 in every 4 people in India is below the poverty level. The iPhone is geared toward people with average to above average incomes (by US standards) this is not a device that will do great in India. Granted they are one of the fastest growing economies in the world, the World Bank still classifies them as a low-income economy. These are two countries that have a monumental amount of catching up to do. You can't just go throwing around number without looking at the demographics.

I do understand everyone's zeal for the iPhone and their desires for it to be incredibly successful, but 2009 is a long ways away, and 45M is a very impressive number. I can't see it happening, not in '09 anyways.

So are you telling me that out of 2.4 bil people in China and India, that some of those people cannot afford an iPhone? 45M in 2 years is not a big number for a company that is selling 10M iPods every 3 months. Think about it.
post #40 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by esp211 View Post

So are you telling me that out of 2.4 bil people in China and India, that some of those people cannot afford an iPhone? 45M in 2 years is not a big number for a company that is selling 10M iPods every 3 months. Think about it.

MOST of those people can't afford an iPhone and never will. They're considered "Third World" countries for a reason. What people don't seem to understand is that you can't go about making a direct comparison from iPod sales to iPhone sales. The iPhone is based on a subscription. You don't need to go about signing a contract to have an iPod. The iPhone requires people to sign a $60- a month 2-year contract in the United States and probably more elsewhere (like Canada). Yes, 10M iPods every 3 months is very impressive, but you have to factor in all the variables... like that fact that the most popular iPod is the nano, which starts at $149-. The iPhone on the other hand starts at $399-. This is also another very big step for consumers. I know it seems like I'm dumbing this down a lot, but I feel that people fail to look at all the variables involved. 45M is an incredibly large number. Thank you for asking me to "Think about it", I have and am more resolute on my belief because of it.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Piper Jaffray ups Apple target to $250, sees sales of 45M iPhones in 09