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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2008)

post #1 of 2640
Thread Starter 
The year is 2008, how will the high-def landscape look like? Will there be iMacs, MacPros, MacBook Pros, MacBooks, etc with built in Blu-ray drives? Will HD DVD have survived the Q4 onslaught of Blu-ray releases? Will certain studios announce exclusivity or neutrality at CES 2008?

Your guess is as good as mine, but I figured I'd really jump the gun and create this thread and claim back the thread I rightfully created back in 2005, and for 2006.

Commentary on this thread is welcome, but if you want to hold off until 2008 actually arrives, that's cool, but at the very least too, this thread will allow for easier viewing.

Let the debate begin!
post #2 of 2640
Thread Starter 
I'll begin the speculation for 2008 by stating...

1) I think Blu-ray will have continued to dominate through Q4 of 2007 with a 72:28 overall ratio.

2) Given the shutout in sales that was handed to HD DVD for all of 2007, Warner will announce Blu-ray exclusivity going forward.

3) Apple will announce Blu-ray integrated hardware at Macworld 2008.

4) Universal, the staunch HD DVD backer will announce neutrality in March of 2008.

5) Paramount, left in the dark, cold, abyss that will have been the HD DVD format due to their poor decision in taking the Microsoft & Toshiba & Co. bribe, will go Blu-ray as well, sooner if they have stipulations in the cotract that will allow them to opt out of their 18 month agreement or much later until the 18 month agreement expires. They walked away with a $150 million dollar bribe in 2007, but at what cost did they give up Blu-ray royalties for the future? No one knows but them, but regardless, they will go Blu.

6) Toshiba, after June, will also capitulate and join the Blu-ray fray given the huge losses Toshiba has encountered due to selling their hardware at a loss.

7) By Q4 2008, we have a unified format in Blu-ray, and everyone wins, with the best technological solution for high-def and one supported by the majority of the industry.

8) Microsoft continues to attempt interjecting their codecs and HDi interactivity into the high-def landscape, but unsuccessfully as H.264/AVC and BD-J are the de-facto standard via the unified Blu-ray format.

9) Apple releases a new AppleTV complete with DVR functionality and BD-R drive.
post #3 of 2640
I love this place...
post #4 of 2640
lol..
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post #5 of 2640
What marzetta7 said.
post #6 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post

The year is 2008, how will the high-def landscape look like? Will there be iMacs, MacPros, MacBook Pros, MacBooks, etc with built in Blu-ray drives? Will HD DVD have survived the Q4 onslaught of Blu-ray releases? Will certain studios announce exclusivity or neutrality at CES 2008?

Your guess is as good as mine, but I figured I'd really jump the gun and create this thread and claim back the thread I rightfully created back in 2005, and for 2006.

Commentary on this thread is welcome, but if you want to hold off until 2008 actually arrives, that's cool, but at the very least too, this thread will allow for easier viewing.

Let the debate begin!

hi there!
not to be an wise-ass.
but check this out...http://www.youchoose.net/campaign/bl...3_pledge-tabid..and read the comments...makes sense does it?
post #7 of 2640
Jumping the gun more than a little, aren't you, Marz? We have almost two months until the new year, which means people will have to keep checking and replying to two threads all that time or this thread will be buried by the time January 1 rolls around.
post #8 of 2640
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post

Jumping the gun more than a little, aren't you, Marz? We have almost two months until the new year, which means people will have to keep checking and replying to two threads all that time or this thread will be buried by the time January 1 rolls around.

Yeah, pretty much. Anyhow, I figured this thread for the time being can be utilized for people's predictions for 2008 for the time being until '08 actually rolls around.
post #9 of 2640
Here's my prediction: through the aid of affordable players, HD DVD regains lost ground over the '07 Holiday season, resulting in a 50/50 gridlock between the two formats all throughout 2008. By 2009, combo players become the norm outside of Sony & Toshiba players/computers, just around the time most consumers actually own HDTVs, making a hi-def player a worthwhile purchase. By 2010, nobody sells a player anymore that can't play both formats, except for Sony & Toshiba, and combo players carry us out until the end of physical media as we know it. And we all live happily ever after.

The End.
post #10 of 2640
The format war soldiers on through 2008 with no clear winner. Marz starts a 2009 thread in November 2008.
post #11 of 2640
Oh come on.

Please lock this thread and let's keep this going in one place. Nobody's even on Christmas vacation yet, much less for New Year's. There is no point to making everybody navigate two threads about the exact same subject.
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post #12 of 2640
I'll second that. In the '06-'07 transition it was very annoying trying to keep up with two consecutive threads and who said what in which one. It was so confusing that at one point I thought Marz & Murch were the same person playing silly-buggers with us. If we do this again they may start to think they're the same person!
post #13 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post

Yeah, pretty much. Anyhow, I figured this thread for the time being can be utilized for people's predictions for 2008 for the time being until '08 actually rolls around.

I wasn't going to post in this thread so it could drop off and then resurface.. but hey ho.

couldn't resist

predictions? you mean like last jan? when there were assertions form some people that HD-DVD would sell 2,3,5 million stand alone players?

pfft. I'm not into that grandiose BS

I predict that BD will continue to sell well.

I HOPE HD-DVD withers further on the vine so we can have ONE format.

I Predict that Apple will include a next gen burner in at least one of their computers

I HOPE this will be at Macworld! even if it IS build to order.

I predict that the price of BD discs will continue to fall while the release rate increases.

I HOPE I can increase my purchase rate as the price becomes lower.

I predict the BD association will get Quad layer discs up and running (RW versions would be great) and they are used in the computer industry, at SOME point in 2008

I HOPE I'm right on that point

I predict that the PS3 will get into more homes and increase its sales

I HOPE that all things microsoft fail hugely (including HD-DVD/360) and Apple continues to see not only its share price rise, but its OS share as well.

There, thats sort of me done predicting.
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post #14 of 2640
He,he.i really think the format war will go on and on...microsoft and sony both have tons of cash to throw at each other instead of agreaing to make a new hi-def standard.
Sony lost the video war in the 80's.And remember one big thing.Not evrything evolves around the sales in US.
In Asia the sales ratio are 9:3 and Japan 9:1 both for blueray.And Europe the sales are higher for blueray.Most likely Europe will follow Asia sales ratio.
Asia will not follow US(HD).higly unlikely,,
post #15 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by todA View Post

Not evrything evolves around the sales in US.
In Asia the sales ratio are 9:3 and Japan 9:1 both for blueray.And Europe the sales are higher for blueray.Most likely Europe will follow Asia sales ratio.
Asia will not follow US(HD).higly unlikely,,

That's true. Neither does everything revolve around the sales in the US. However, the world is not so small yet that we can't end up with our own standard. The US could easily go one way and the rest of the world the other.
post #16 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guartho View Post

That's true. Neither does everything revolve around the sales in the US. However, the world is not so small yet that we can't end up with our own standard. The US could easily go one way and the rest of the world the other.

The US could easily do so.But the market outside US are much bigger.ergo the statement.
And Sony is a big company in the US.and owned by americans.So the idea of US is going one way are higly unlikely.(even though microsoft think they rule the world

edit:not much bigger but bigger
post #17 of 2640
Quote:
Sony CEO Sees 'Stalemate' in Disc Fight

NEW YORK (AP) - The head of Sony Corp ., Howard Stringer , said Thursday that the Blu-ray disc format the company has developed as the successor to the DVD is in a "stalemate" with the competing HD DVD format, chiefly backed by Toshiba Corp. and Microsoft Corp.

"It's a difficult fight," said Stringer, speaking at the 92nd Street Y cultural center in Manhattan.

Toshiba has been selling its players for as low as $200 heading into the holiday season, while Blu-ray players cost more than twice as much. The HD DVD camp also scored a significant win in August, when it induced Paramount Pictures to drop most of its support for Blu-ray and put out high-definition movies exclusively on HD DVD.

"We were trying to win on the merits, which we were doing for a while, until Paramount changed sides," Stringer said.

At the same time, he played down the importance of the battle, saying it was mostly a matter of prestige whose format wins out in the end.

"It doesn't mean as much as all that," Stringer said. He added that he believed there was an opportunity of uniting the two camps under one format before he became CEO, and he wishes he could travel back in time to make that happen.

Stringer was more upbeat about the PlayStation 3, the game console that has so far had disappointing sales compared to the rival Nintendo Wii.

The CEO said the console is the best-selling console in Europe after a price cut three weeks ago. In the U.S., a recent price cut has doubled sales.

"We are coming back up again," Stringer said. The company aims to sell 10 million PS3s by the end of its fiscal year in March. Nintendo has already sold 13.2 million Wiis.

A much more reasonably-minded view of the situation than the pretentious bravado that some platform elitists throw around.
post #18 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by nowayout11 View Post

A much more reasonably-minded view of the situation than the pretentious bravado that some platform elitists throw around.


THE FUTURE:bLUERAY IS THE WINNER YEAJJ(AND HD GET CRUSHED AND MICROSOFT LOSES FACE AND TOSHIBA DECIDES TO GIVE AWAY HD FOR FREE AND FINALLY SEES THE WAR HAS COME TO AND END AND DECIDE TO PUT BLUERAY IN THEIR PC LIKE HP,DELL,ALIENWARE HAVE DONE SO LONG AGO.NOT TO MENTION THE WISE CHOICE APPLE ALSO DID A WHILE AGO WHEN THEY FINALLY REALISED THAT HD SUCKS..
post #19 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by nowayout11 View Post

A much more reasonably-minded view of the situation than the pretentious bravado that some platform elitists throw around.

It is nice to see Sony showing some reason and humility. That's all some of us wanted to begin with.
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post #20 of 2640
Since at this time this thread is all whimsy, I'd like to offer a Friday the 13 look at 2008, even though today isn't the 13th.

The recession that hit the US in late 2007 worsens, fueled by huge deficit spending to support the unpopular war in Iraq, high forclosure rates and bankruptcy filings, a falling US dollar that reaches parity with the peso, drying up of credit, oil prices reaching astronomical levels and gas at $7 a gallon, and the economy moves into a depression. Consumer confidence falls to a all time low and discretionary spending falls to zero as people are more worried about keep a roof over their heads, staying warm and affording to keep gas in their car than in buying HDM and players and HD TVs. Movie studios, in a joint announcement, drop all HDM and will only support SD-DVD. Toshiba goes bankrupt. Sony maintains it's solidly behind the PS3, then two weeks later cancels it. Microsoft gloats. The rich get richer. Murch and marz continue to argue over which abandonded HDM format was better.

How's that for a doomsday prediction?
post #21 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

Since at this time this thread is all whimsy, I'd like to offer a Friday the 13 look at 2008, even though today isn't the 13th.

The recession that hit the US in late 2007 worsens, fueled by huge deficit spending to support the unpopular war in Iraq, high forclosure rates and bankruptcy filings, a falling US dollar that reaches parity with the peso, drying up of credit, oil prices reaching astronomical levels and gas at $7 a gallon, and the economy moves into a depression. Consumer confidence falls to a all time low and discretionary spending falls to zero as people are more worried about keep a roof over their heads, staying warm and affording to keep gas in their car than in buying HDM and players and HD TVs. Movie studios, in a joint announcement, drop all HDM and will only support SD-DVD. Toshiba goes bankrupt. Sony maintains it's solidly behind the PS3, then two weeks later cancels it. Microsoft gloats. The rich get richer. Murch and marz continue to argue over which abandonded HDM format was better.

How's that for a doomsday prediction?

he.he..good one
In the near future apple decide to join ranks and buy up toshiba and stop the toshiba hd production and makes it sell bluray.just to plunge a dagger in microsofts hd dream(heart)..(steve jobs does it for the fun of it since bill gates called him a freak(and steve jobs calls him a nerd).
In the mean time people give a damn.And a brand new company(wheres does it come from??) Starts to make great comboplayers just to piss of evrybody.In the mean time(2 time) a wise guy(he works from sony) comes on the smart plan to integrate the hd technology in to blueray and calls it blueray 2(and it could be played on hd players to).
And the hd creator commits suicide after desperate microsoft agents tries to make him come up with new things..And evrybody gives a damn and blueray 2 wins....and the secret company(the maker of great comboplayers) was invented by the usa after sony bribed them alot..and they really felt sorry for sony(since they allready have lost the videowar in the 80's...
post #22 of 2640
Thread Starter 
Unearthing...

2 more weeks for HD DVD to take a week in '07...will Bourne be their saving grace? Mmmm naaaaaah.

On a serious note, will HD DVD ever take a week in '08? Anyone have a list of movies on tap for HD DVD where they may have a fighting chance for a week in '08?

I also want to hear some of your guys' odds of Warner going Blu-exclusive in '08 due to Blu-ray winning in sales handily for 52 weeks in a row. I think there is about an 85% chance they'll do it.

Also, I really think we'll be hearing a bit about Blu-ray come MacWorld in January...
post #23 of 2640
Thread Starter 
Also, everyone else noticing the Blu-ray ads on the site here? Nice touch AppleInsider.

Is it a sign of things to come perhaps for the Mac community? Know something we don't yet?
post #24 of 2640
PS3 sales figures seem to be picking up markedly, which may be a very positive event for the blu-ray crowd. Personally, I would rather see blu-ray win just because I like the technology more (DVD menus suck) and because it makes a much better archival format.

Either way, I'm fairly certain that disc-based media has a long future ahead of it. The on-demand crowd is a little bit ahead of themselves.
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post #25 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

Since at this time this thread is all whimsy, I'd like to offer a Friday the 13 look at 2008, even though today isn't the 13th.

The recession that hit the US in late 2007 worsens, ...

Um ... there's inflation, but no real recession. The US is poised to soon become the dominant leader in "green" technology, which isn't surprising because it's the dominant leader in pretty much every other form of technology. High-tech investing is going nuts right now -- supposedly, more nuts than it was during the dot-com era, and you aren't even aware of it.

This, of course, has nothing to do with blu-ray or HD-DVD, but I figured I'd make the statement anyway.
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post #26 of 2640
Is it a sign of things to come perhaps for the Mac community? Know something we don't yet? [/QUOTE]

Oh yeah, like how all those Vista ads meant that Macs were going to switch to Vista!
post #27 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splinemodel View Post

Either way, I'm fairly certain that disc-based media has a long future ahead of it. The on-demand crowd is a little bit ahead of themselves.

Yes, yes they are.
post #28 of 2640
Who brought this out of the cellar? I thought we were waiting until the 1st to start posting in here?
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post #29 of 2640
I just saw a Program on TVJapan that showed a 95% domination in Japan of Blue-ray, with it emerging a clear victor in Japan. I am convinced it is the better media format, but who wants to convert all our macs to that? My prpblem is that I still don't feel like getting ah HD version of the Bosox manager spitting in the dugout to justify upgrading my miserably old Sony CRT-type 21" TV.
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post #30 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubit View Post

I just saw a Program on TVJapan that showed a 95% domination in Japan of Blue-ray, with it emerging a clear victor in Japan. I am convinced it is the better media format, but who wants to convert all our macs to that? My prpblem is that I still don't feel like getting ah HD version of the Bosox manager spitting in the dugout to justify upgrading my miserably old Sony CRT-type 21" TV.

I am convinced it is NOT

BD+ already broken
BD-Java fragmented
50GB disc yield no palpable quality advantage

Hollywood isn't in Japan.
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post #31 of 2640
BD+ is not broken.
JLL

95% percent of the boat is owned by Microsoft, but the 5% Apple controls happens to be the rudder!
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post #32 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

I am convinced it is NOT

BD+ already broken
BD-Java fragmented
50GB disc yield no palpable quality advantage

Hollywood isn't in Japan.

Until you make a U-Turn statement.

Like what about your love for foreign films? holly wood is not in foreign

HD-DVD = Microsoft backed* proprietary Toshiba format.


*All you need to know really as M$ ALWAYS fail on a level playing field.
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post #33 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

BD+ already broken

Quote:
Originally Posted by JLL View Post

BD+ is not broken.

I'd love to know the actual status of BD+.

If it is indeed broken, and I will be able to use HandBrake-like tools to rip BR discs in the future, I would actually consider switching sides.

As I've always maintained, I'm only anti-Blu-Ray because Sony has learned nothing from their anti-consumer ways and DRM'd Blu-Ray discs to a ridiculous degree.

Anybody have any real data on this?
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post #34 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post

*All you need to know really as M$ ALWAYS fail on a level playing field.

That's a silly thing to say. How many format wars has Sony won? How many formats has Sony attempted to push as the standard? How many formats failed miserably in Sony's hands? Sony and Microsoft's past failed attempts says nothing about the outcome of this format war. Seems a silly argument for you to make anyhow, considering I'm quite sure Microsoft has had far more success pushing formats into mainstream than Sony.
post #35 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

I'd love to know the actual status of BD+.

If it is indeed broken, and I will be able to use HandBrake-like tools to rip BR discs in the future, I would actually consider switching sides.

As I've always maintained, I'm only anti-Blu-Ray because Sony has learned nothing from their anti-consumer ways and DRM'd Blu-Ray discs to a ridiculous degree.

Anybody have any real data on this?

Not full blown broken yet. There is a bug in the current implementation of BD+ (or the disks implementing it thus far) which allows a user of AnyDVD to backup a BluRay disk by simply copying the BD+ files over. You can't reencode the move yet, SlySoft (and I am sure others) are still working on that.
post #36 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

That's a silly thing to say. How many format wars has Sony won? How many formats has Sony attempted to push as the standard? How many formats failed miserably in Sony's hands? Sony and Microsoft's past failed attempts says nothing about the outcome of this format war. Seems a silly argument for you to make anyhow, considering I'm quite sure Microsoft has had far more success pushing formats into mainstream than Sony.

It's NOT silly, you are silly as you didn't read what I said despite quoting it.

but seeing as you want to praise M$ you tell me how many formats have they pushed that have succeeded WITHOUT windows? ie. a level playing field?
I don't see how an anti M$ stance can be seen as a bad thing on an Apple forum I really can't!

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post #37 of 2640
Thread Starter 
EU Blu-Ray Movie Sales Soar

http://www.myth-games.com/news3055.htm

Quote:
Total Blu-ray Disc movie sales across Europe have topped one million units, it was announced today by the Blu-ray Disc Association European Promotions Committee. Of the High Definition movie discs bought by consumers year-to-date in Europe, 73% were in the Blu-ray Disc format and 27% were HD DVD, according to sales data provided by Media Control Gfk International.*

The only High Definition packaged media universally supported by the film, music, gaming and computer industries, BD is the #1 selling High Definition packaged media. The one million sales figure relates to movies: if BD game disc production is added into the equation then total number of discs produced for sale in Europe already exceeds 21 million units. The so-called PlayStation effect is important since it is creating major economies of scale and makes BD disc replication cost effective.

Blu-ray Disc movie sales experienced their highest weekly sales since the inception of the format, in week 44, topping 66,000 units. * This is due to the launch of new release titles such as 300, Spider-Man 3, Die Hard 4.0 and Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End releasing in some markets.

This is an important milestone for Blu-ray Disc in Europe and proves once again that whenever consumers have the choice they decide overwhelmingly in favour of BD, stated Frank Simonis, Chairman of the Blu-ray Disc European Promotions Committee. Early indicators show that the Christmas holiday season will be exceptionally good for Blu-ray Disc across all categories from packaged media to standalone players and BD capable games consoles.

Blu-ray Disc has become the first High Definition movie format to sell more than one million discs in Europe, with Blu-ray Disc's sales lead over the rival HD DVD format increasing each month since the PS3s release in March, outselling HD DVD by 2:1 YTD and 3:1 since the launch of the PS3.

The launch of the ps3 in March was seen as a turning point for the Blu-ray Disc format across Europe, with weekly movie sales of Blu-ray Disc titles averaging between two- and five-times the amount of HD DVD sales week over week.*

The best selling Blu-ray titles year-to-date are 300 the number one selling title in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Benelux and Sweden and Casino Royale - the number one selling title in UK and Ireland.

News of the 1 millionth Blu-ray Disc sale in Europe was met with pleasure in many of the leading Hollywood studios. Bob Chapek, Worldwide President, Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment believes that this news is the prelude for an exponential growth period in BD sales.

Blu-ray will inevitably prevail because Blu-ray delivers what consumers want: True High Definition picture without compromise, the best sound quality, the best choice in content, the most in special features, and of course the most disc storage capacity. No tradeoffs. No compromises, commented Chapek.
post #38 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post

It's NOT silly, you are silly as you didn't read what I said despite quoting it.

but seeing as you want to praise M$ you tell me how many formats have they pushed that have succeeded WITHOUT windows? ie. a level playing field?

You think the format war is a level playing field? Come on Walter, the only reason Blu-Ray has more ground is because it comes bundled with the PS3, something people were going to buy regardless. It's a well-learned Microsoft tactic, probably first used to run Netscape into the ground by bundling a fully-working browser with Windows. It's really the only tactic that works when you're selling something consumers in general don't care to pay for.
post #39 of 2640
i rarely post in threads regarding hd format, but here's my 2 cents and predictions albeit 2008 is probably a bit early.

1. new competing technology will force inexpensive combo drives (why are there still + and - r?!)

2. people will feel sick when they think about how much time they wasted posting in threads like these because it will be pointless. there will be no winner.

3. OR, if there's has to be a winner, HD-DVD will win for two reasons. "HD" and "DVD" in the title. Familiarity and perception. This becomes unmistakingly clear at the holiday dinner table with family and friends--at least around my house.

anyway, that's my rant. still debating buying a ps3 for myself for xmas. i really don't have anything against blu, but i was an early hd-dvd odopter and now own 2 players. honestly, there's simply nothing i want to go buy or rent in either format at the moment. (begin segway to studios deciding outcome....pfft, please).
post #40 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

You think the format war is a level playing field? Come on Walter, the only reason Blu-Ray has more ground is because it comes bundled with the PS3, something people were going to buy regardless. It's a well-learned Microsoft tactic, probably first used to run Netscape into the ground by bundling a fully-working browser with Windows. It's really the only tactic that works when you're selling something consumers in general don't care to pay for.

I think Blu-Ray is leading because it's a superior format and disk. Simple. Look at world wide #'s not just America. Studios will have to end up using Blu-Ray regardless because the rest of the people on the planet were smarter and choose the superior format for themselves from the get go. Only americans were dumb enough to go with cheap, and the catchy more familiar title "HD-DVD" without researching who the studios were choosing.
Japan is 97% Blu-Ray or something close to that. And the rest of the world is following suit. So studios will end up having to make the movies using that format regardless.
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