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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2008) - Page 65

post #2561 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post


...

Flashback to the 1800s. Someone figured it was cheaper to move goods and people via railroad than on horses.
Problem: There isn't enough capacity in rail network.
You either: Increase the capacity of the rail network or conclude that horses are the future. And try to breed a really big horse.

C.

]

Actually, your analogy is a little off. Railroads put hauling freight by canals obsolete. When the railroads laid sufficient trackage they did become the transportation of choice for moving large loads over distance, but horse cartage was still the norm for short distances and for distribution transportation until it was displaced by the motor vehicle.
post #2562 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

Actually, your analogy is a little off. Railroads put hauling freight by canals obsolete. When the railroads laid sufficient trackage they did become the transportation of choice for moving large loads over distance, but horse cartage was still the norm for short distances and for distribution transportation until it was displaced by the motor vehicle.

Yeah, but that would have meant I could not use the picture of a really big horse. ( Thereby comedically lampooning BluRay.) A really big canal boat has no comedy impact.


C.
post #2563 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

I do agree that it will be some time before the internet replaces TV Broadcast (via Satellite, Antenna and Cable) - Families consume many hours of TV a day and broadcast is still an inexpensive way to shift video in bulk. So I think we will still be seeing broadcast media, of some sort, in 10 years time.

But displacing physical disk distribution can happen much sooner. And has of course is kicking-off with Netflix and Apple in a perfectly viable way. Sony plan to start doing direct downloads soon.

The games industry is about to make a similar transition. The motivation is to cut-out the middle-men retailers who take about half of the revenue (simply for selling a box)

C.

Well with the current issues I give it about 10 years to sort out.
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post #2564 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

Trust me this battle has been going on for 30 years with the movie companies. They'll be a much tougher nut to crack than the record companies. While the record companies were looking the other way for years with cassete tape copys of records the movie companies were up in arms about the VCR. Yes we won eventually but they haven't stopped being obsessed with people having free rein over their product. Even though they make more money they still want total control. If it was up to them we wouldn't have home video or computers to copy with. Absolutely paranoid about it.

Also there's currently only so much bandwidth. An HD movie takes up a lot more room than a song.

So if this was so easy how come iTunes doesn't let you burn ( or write to a portable device ) HD video right now?

I think the reason the movie studio's are so adamant about copy protection is because most people only watch a whole movie once, sometimes twice. Beyond that, that sale is lost forever. They've only got one or two chances to get you to pay for their content.

Also, if record companies spent $200M to record an album, you bet your ass they wouldn't let people copy it. This is no disrespect to the artists of the recording industry, but let's face it, it only takes a one to three people to put out an album at a cost of tens of thousands. A motion picture takes hundreds of people and costs millions. So it's hard to compare the two industries.
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post #2565 of 2640
Thread Starter 
Apple's Margin-Reducing Product that Wasn't: Blu-ray?

http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...-wasnt-blu-ray

Quote:
In the third quarter earnings call in July, Apple warned investors about an upcoming product transition that would eat away at the company's cushy margins. However, in the intermediate, no new or updated products have surfaced that look like they could be responsible for significantly reduced margins.

In last week's fourth quarter earnings call, Apple execs added that operating margins this quarter were 18.3 percent "due to higher-than-anticipated gross margins." Apparently, the new "unibodies" for the MacBooks and MacBook Pros were responsible for a slight margin reduction, but either Apple is playing its well-known "under-promise, over-deliver" game with more gusto than usual, or a mystery margin-reducing product or feature failed to make an appearance. What could that be?

Blu-ray drives in the Mac, perhaps? Let's examine the evidence.

Exhibit A: Apple is on the board of directors of the Blu-ray Disc Association. During the format war between Blu-ray and HD-DVD, conventional thinking was that the Mac maker would wait to adopt a next-generation optical format in its products until the war would be over. That happened some nine months ago, clearing the way for Blu-ray adoption by Apple.

Exhibit B: There is talk that the version of QuickTime included with the new unibody laptops uses GPU acceleration for decoding H.264 video. This is a capability announced for QuickTime X in Snow Leopard, but it's apparently showing up early.

Exhibit C: The bag of hurt. In the Q&A session after unveiling the new MacBooks and MacBook Pros, Steve Jobs was asked about Blu-ray. The reply: "Blu-ray is a bag of hurt. Not from the consumer point of view; it's great to watch movies, but the licensing is very complex. So we're waiting until things settle down, and waiting until Blu-ray takes off before we burden our customers with the cost of licensing."

And of course, Exhibit D, the margin-reducing product transition that didn't manage to reduce margins all that much after all.

Now, there are those who say that Apple has deliberately omitted Blu-ray drives from its computers because the company wants to push HD downloads through iTunes. I don't believe that for a second. First of all, a company full of obsessive perfectionists led by the most obsessive perfectionist of them all isn't going to accept the barely-better-than-DVD quality "HD" downloads in lieu of the real thing.

Add to that the fact that downloading 20GB movies isn't going to happen in the near future. Even at today's one to two gigabytesand geographical restrictionsthe number of people who can download HD movies (if they wanted to) is only a fraction of those who can buy or rent Blu-ray discs. But apart from that, Blu-ray isn't just a movie distribution medium; it's also on its way to replace DVD as removable media for data use. Apple can afford to be a bit behind the curve herejust like it can afford to be ahead of the curve in other areasbut the company can't ignore the direction the industry is going in for too long.

Besides, Jobs' comment clearly indicates that he has been looking into adding Blu-ray drives to the Mac product line, but got somewhat frustrated along the way. It sounds a lot like last year's concerns about battery use with 3G on the iPhone, which (of course) ceased to be an issue this summer. So, if I can find a bank that I can trust to be around next year around this time, I'm going to start saving for that MacBook Pro with Blu-ray.
post #2566 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

I think the reason the movie studio's are so adamant about copy protection is because most people only watch a whole movie once, sometimes twice. Beyond that, that sale is lost forever. They've only got one or two chances to get you to pay for their content.

The tighter they squeeze the more slips through their fingers. The problem with all DRM is it punishes the consumers and rewards the pirates.

Legitimate purchasers of a DRM disk, get less for their money. They can't back up their content, or move it to another medium once the player goes out of style. DRM copies are less valuable to consumers.

The piracy option is not just cheaper, it ends up being faster and leaves you with media you can do whatever you want to. ie. Put it on you iPhone.

And in the meantime, these anti-piracy efforts have done precisely *nothing* to prevent good quality copies of all movies hitting the nets. So we get this bizarre situation where illegitimate copies are preferable to the the real thing.

The studios need to adopt methods which rewards legitimate purchase and discourages casual copying.

Here's my suggestions:

1) Improve the experience in theaters. Currently it sucks. Insist on quality standards for picture, audio etc.

2) Reward consumers with bonus content , prizes for their loyalty - and the best, most flexible copies of the media. Maintain contact with those customers and especially reward fans who help create a buzz and keep the product alive.

3) Deter casual copying with watermarking.

4) Acknowledge there are two forms of viewer. Casual watch-once-viewers and hardcore fans. Create different products, with different price points for the two audiences.

5) Target commercial piracy aggressively.


C.
post #2567 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

The tighter they squeeze the more slips through their fingers. The problem with all DRM is it punishes the consumers and rewards the pirates.

Legitimate purchasers of a DRM disk, get less for their money. They can't back up their content, or move it to another medium once the player goes out of style. DRM copies are less valuable to consumers.

The piracy option is not just cheaper, it ends up being faster and leaves you with media you can do whatever you want to. ie. Put it on you iPhone.

And in the meantime, these anti-piracy efforts have done precisely *nothing* to prevent good quality copies of all movies hitting the nets. So we get this bizarre situation where illegitimate copies are preferable to the the real thing.

The studios need to adopt methods which rewards legitimate purchase and discourages casual copying.

Here's my suggestions:

1) Improve the experience in theaters. Currently it sucks. Insist on quality standards for picture, audio etc.

2) Reward consumers with bonus content , prizes for their loyalty - and the best, most flexible copies of the media. Maintain contact with those customers and especially reward fans who help create a buzz and keep the product alive.

3) Deter casual copying with watermarking.

4) Acknowledge there are two forms of viewer. Casual watch-once-viewers and hardcore fans. Create different products, with different price points for the two audiences.

5) Target commercial piracy aggressively.


C.

Quote:
The tighter they squeeze the more slips through their fingers. The problem with all DRM is it punishes the consumers and rewards the pirates.

Kind of like our anti drug policies? Well to use that analogy that's been going on longer than 10 years. You just don't get how stubborn these people are.

You're talking about people like Jack Valenti ( dead now ) who testified before congress about the evils of the VCR and how it would destroy the movie industry.

That was back in the early 80's. They haven't changed much since then even though we won that battle. They want strict control. Getting them to give up that idea will take a while. It would be like watching paint dry.
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post #2568 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

Kind of like our anti drug policies? Well to use that analogy that's been going on longer than 10 years. You just don't get how stubborn these people are.

You're talking about people like Jack Valenti ( dead now ) who testified before congress about the evils of the VCR and how it would destroy the movie industry.

That was back in the early 80's. They haven't changed much since then even though we won that battle. They want strict control. Getting them to give up that idea will take a while. It would be like watching paint dry.

You must have noticed that when it comes to human behavior, people just do whatever they want, and the law is just an irritant. Anti drug policies seem to have zero impact.

The record industry wasted years trying to prevent something that had already happened. The genie was out of the box. Adding ever more padlocks to that box was just a waste of money. DRM infected CDs drove even more people away!

The movie people are doing the same thing; comically trying to hang-on to a business model from the previous century. But I agree they'll take some time to reconsider. After a few years, curiosity gets the better of them. They peek inside the box and realise that it's empty.

What the industry does won't change how people chose to use media or technology. They don't have that power.
But the industry *can* attempt to monetize what people are doing.

Alternatively they can just sit there and watch their business model slowly evaporate.

C.
post #2569 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post

Apple's Margin-Reducing Product that Wasn't: Blu-ray?

http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...-wasnt-blu-ray

The Margin-Reducing transition was clearly the unibody process on the MacBook/MBPro line.
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post #2570 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

1. If you own a collection of movies and TV - having that collection on a server of some kind (a video jukebox) is massively more convenient than having hundreds of physical disks.
Physical disks are a pain in the ass. Once you switch, you'll never want to go back.
Many people with extensive DVD collections are transferring their library to files, because they can finally get their content in convenient way.

Like I said earlier in this thread, if I'm going to sit through a film for two hours, I think I can take thirty seconds to remove the movie from a case and put the disc in a tray. Especially if that means getting the best picture and sound quality possible in return for my extra 20 seconds of strenuous, laborious work. Movies are not like songs; you're not going to decide to change it every 3 minutes, so you don't need instant access to every movie you own instantaneously. And unlike the inevitable drive failure that comes with an all-digital collection, the only way I can lose my thousands of dollars of physical media at once is by fire or theft — neither of which are likely scenarios.
post #2571 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

The Margin-Reducing transition was clearly the unibody process on the MacBook/MBPro line.

At the prices Apple's asking for their currently-specced Macbooks and MacBook Pros, those unibody cases better be costing them about $400 a piece.
post #2572 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

Like I said earlier in this thread, if I'm going to sit through a film for two hours, I think I can take thirty seconds to remove the movie from a case and put the disc in a tray. Especially if that means getting the best picture and sound quality possible in return for my extra 20 seconds of strenuous, laborious work. Movies are not like songs; you're not going to decide to change it every 3 minutes, so you don't need instant access to every movie you own instantaneously. And unlike the inevitable drive failure that comes with an all-digital collection, the only way I can lose my thousands of dollars of physical media at once is by fire or theft neither of which are likely scenarios.

True. But that's not the future of downloads.
The most likely future won't involve your collection being in your house at all.

You'll sign in to NetFlix (or whomever) and add a movie to your "collection" for a fee.

Nobody will press any discs, ship anything from China or mail anything out to customers. You never have to worry about your collection being stolen, burned or lost due to a drive failure. Personal 'lockboxes' of digital content are the future.

It will take awhile for this to happen. The current system of downloading and storage is an intermediary step.
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post #2573 of 2640
Blu-ray is in a death spiral. 12 months from now Blu-ray will be a videophile niche, not a mass market product.

Robin makes some interesting points.

Quote:
Piggies at the trough

The Blu-ray Disc Association hoped for a massive cash bonanza as millions of consumers discovered that standard DVDs looked awful on HDTV. To cash in they loaded Blu-ray licenses with costly fees. Blu-ray doesnt just suck for consumers: small producers cant afford it either.

According to Digital Content Producer Blu-ray doesnt cut it for business:

Recordable discs dont play reliably across the range of Blu-ray players - so you cant do low-volume runs yourself.
Service bureau reproduction runs $20 per single layer disc in quantities of 300 or less.
Hollywood style printed/replicated Blu-ray discs are considerably cheaper once you reach the thousand unit quantity: just $3.50 per disc.
High-quality authoring programs like Sony Blu-print or Sonic Solutions Scenarist cost $40,000.
The Advanced Access Content System - the already hacked DRM - has a one-time fee of $3000 plus a per project cost of almost $1600 plus $.04 per disk. And who defines project?
Then the Blu-ray disc Association charges another $3000 annually to use their very exclusive - on 4% of all video disks! - logo.
Thats why you dont see quirky indie flicks on Blu-ray. Small producers cant afford it - even though they shoot in HDV and HD.

Then he says

Quote:
A forward looking strategy would include:

Recognition that consumers dont need Blu-ray. It is a nice-to-have and must be priced accordingly.

Accept the money spent on Blu-ray is gone and will never earn back the investment. Then you can begin thinking clearly about how to maximize Blu-ray penetration.
The average consumer will probably pay $50 more for a Blu-ray player that is competitive with the average up-sampling DVD player. Most of the current Blu-ray players are junk: slow, feature-poor and way over-priced.

Disk price margins cant be higher than DVDs and probably should be less. The question the studios need to ask is: do we want to be selling disks in 5 years? No? Then keep it up. Turn distribution over to your very good friends at Comcast, Apple and Time Warner. Youll be like Procter & Gamble paying Safeway to stock your products.

Fire all the market research firms telling you how great it is going to be. They are playing you. Your #1 goal: market share. High volume is your only chance to earn your way out of this mess and keep some control of your distribution.

For content producers who aren't making large budget flicks. I think it's already time to move on.
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post #2574 of 2640
murch, you've been crying doom and gloom about BD ever since the original HD/BD thread started. Will BD survive? Will it become a niche product? Who knows, only time will tell. In the meantime, I'll continue to enjoy BD movies on my "clunky, overpriced, feature poor" player.
post #2575 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

murch, you've been crying doom and gloom about BD ever since the original HD/BD thread started. Will BD survive? Will it become a niche product? Who knows, only time will tell. In the meantime, I'll continue to enjoy BD movies on my "clunky, overpriced, feature poor" player.

No one doubts about having to enjoy HiDef discs we already own, but it is becoming more apparent that BD is not going to succeed even the path of LD. Whatever the reason for the poor consumer acceptance, it is real.
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post #2576 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

No one doubts about having to enjoy HiDef discs we already own, but it is becoming more apparent that BD is not going to succeed even the path of LD. Whatever the reason for the poor consumer acceptance, it is real.

bite, that's just your perception. There's always nay-sayers out there. Time will tell but if BD doesn't replace DVD, IMO it'll succeed on a larger scale than LD did.
post #2577 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

No one doubts about having to enjoy HiDef discs we already own, but it is becoming more apparent that BD is not going to succeed even the path of LD. Whatever the reason for the poor consumer acceptance, it is real.

I'm pretty sure Blu-Ray has already well surpassed laserdisc in terms of success. I doubt Laserdisc ever accounted for 12% of physical media sales. Nor do I believe it ever had the steady release of popular titles that Blu-Ray has now. There's not a single desirable new release that isn't published on both DVD and Blu-Ray.

In another year, since Blu-Ray players are backwards compatible with DVDs (and most of the time make them look even better), we'll start to see DVD player shelf space being taken over by Blu-Ray players. Much in the same way people weren't necessarily willing to pay more for an HDTV, consumers can't walk out of a store with a television anymore that isn't high definition.
post #2578 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

I'm pretty sure Blu-Ray has already well surpassed laserdisc in terms of success. I doubt Laserdisc ever accounted for 12% of physical media sales. Nor do I believe it ever had the steady release of popular titles that Blu-Ray has now. There's not a single desirable new release that isn't published on both DVD and Blu-Ray.

Has average disc sales on blu-ray surpassed 12% of total optical disc sales? This would be great news if it's true. Only news I'm aware of that gets me excited on Blu-ray is projected Feb. release for Amadeous, just in time for my new home theater set up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

In another year, since Blu-Ray players are backwards compatible with DVDs (and most of the time make them look even better), we'll start to see DVD player shelf space being taken over by Blu-Ray players. Much in the same way people weren't necessarily willing to pay more for an HDTV, consumers can't walk out of a store with a television anymore that isn't high definition.

Well, let's hope that all the studios in some day stop new dvd releases and have them only available on BD. But I really don't see this happening even in next 3 years. It would also help if Sony can influence all the hardware manufacturers to stop producing DVD players and manufacture only the BD optical disc player. This is a lot of obstacles to overcome for a diminishing cause. I have experienced several 720p/1080p online contents and I'm more than satisfied with video and audio quality for the time being. For $20+ for a blu-ray movie, most consumers will not mind the downloads, at fraction of the retail price or for the convenience of live streaming, even with small compromise on video and audio quality for next three years.
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post #2579 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

bite, that's just your perception. There's always nay-sayers out there. Time will tell but if BD doesn't replace DVD, IMO it'll succeed on a larger scale than LD did.

I hope you're right. I'm now living in the Gaithersburg, Maryland area where many of the coworkers do own professionally setup home theater in their basement. The funny thing is that most of them own HDM optical disc players, but still buy DVD's over blu-ray releases. I know, it's a shame, but that is the reality for now.
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post #2580 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

Has average disc sales on blu-ray surpassed 12% of total optical disc sales? This would be great news if it's true.

Blu-Ray has been accounting for 12% of the DVD Pie fairly regularly, yes. In fact, they say 18% of Hulks optical media sales were Blu-Ray. That's a pretty fat niche.
post #2581 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

Blu-Ray has been accounting for 12% of the DVD Pie fairly regularly, yes. In fact, they say 18% of Hulks optical media sales were Blu-Ray. That's a pretty fat niche.

Thanks for the link. The data looked good for a second, but when you look closely, the data by Nielson is misleading as usual. Even if the presented data is absolutely accurate, the pie percentage shown from the link is by $ amount spent, but not comparing the number of discs sold. I would guess that average movie disc price would easily cost 2X to 4X more for the Blu-ray discs which means that number of discs sold is still less than or equal to about 5-7% of the overall market. Yes, it is still interesting market size.
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post #2582 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

Thanks for the link. The data looked good for a second, but when you look closely, the data by Nielson is misleading as usual. Even if the presented data is absolutely accurate, the pie percentage shown from the link is by $ amount spent, but not comparing the number of discs sold. I would guess that average movie disc price would easily cost 2X to 4X more for the Blu-ray discs which means that number of discs sold is still less than or equal to about 5-7% of the overall market. Yes, it is still interesting market size.

That's good to know. I did not realize the neilson numbers were dollars and not units sold; however, Blu-Ray disc are at the very most less than double their barebones DVD counterparts, and usually just 1/3 more than their "two disc special edition DVD" counterparts.
post #2583 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

That's good to know. I did not realize the neilson numbers were dollars and not units sold; however, Blu-Ray disc are at the very most less than double their barebones DVD counterparts, and usually just 1/3 more than their "two disc special edition DVD" counterparts.

That is true for the newly released titles. I would also think that many less than $10 or even $5 or less DVD titles are also included in the total $ of optical disc sales. As you are aware, even older BD titles are still selling at higher price than the most of the newly released dvd's on the release week. At Best Buy, new release DVD's do come at promo price around $15 on the release week(day?).

Regardless, even 5% of optical market is pretty significant for a niche product considering the current economy.
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post #2584 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

That's good to know. I did not realize the neilson numbers were dollars and not units sold;

And you're buying that? Good grief, man. Look at the chart again. Notice where it says "Top 20 unit volume." Don't believe everything bitemymac tries to feed you. Even his guesses about pricing are wrong. If you look at say, Iron Man, the two-disc Blu-ray edition retails for $39.99. The two-disc DVD retails for... $39.99. Wow, what a difference, eh? Even at full Amazon discount, there's only a $3 difference. Likewise, the 3-disc edition of Wall-E on Blu-ray has a retail price $1 more than the 3-disc DVD edition. So much for "2X to 4X more for the Blu-ray discs."

Also, check the math. The dollar figures don't jibe. If they were going by those dollar figures, Blu-ray would have over 14%, not 12% as the pie chart says.
post #2585 of 2640
Quote:
Weve gotten another update from our [Paramount] studio and industry sources on great titles that are in the planning or production stages (or both) for release on Blu-ray Disc in 2009. You can reasonably expect to see most of the Star Trek feature films on the format, as well as Chinatown, Deep Impact, The Ten Commandments, Sunset Boulevard, Apocalypse Now, Breakfast at Tiffanys, Saturday Night Fever, Flashdance and The Elephant Man. According to our sources, theres also an outside chance that you MIGHT see Titanic on Blu-ray before the end of 2009. Keep your fingers crossed..


thought someone might like to know.

I haven't been keeping up with this thread, so sorry if its already been posted
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post #2586 of 2640
It's rough economy that is for sure. Blu Ray player sales will be just as poor as everything else this holiday season. If we still had that Regan/Bush - Bush/Quale escalating economy in place, Blu Ray would probably be in 70% more homes than it is, but we don't. You can thank Bill Clinton for surfing that Tsunami tidal wave of good fortune all way into shore. He wanted Change. That's what we got, that's all we got in our pockets. You shouldn't try and change anything that isn't fundamentally broken. That clown pulled the bottom out from under the strongest economy America had ever seen. I saw it coming, and watched it dissipate. It was so clear. I can not believe some people then wanted to elect his wife. They f****d it up once, that was enough for me.
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post #2587 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlooker View Post

It's rough economy that is for sure. Blu Ray player sales will be just as poor as everything else this holiday season. If we still had that Regan/Bush - Bush/Quale escalating economy in place, Blu Ray would probably be in 70% more homes than it is, but we don't. You can thank Bill Clinton for surfing that Tsunami tidal wave of good fortune all way into shore. He wanted Change. That's what we got, that's all we got in our pockets. You shouldn't try and change anything that isn't fundamentally broken. That clown pulled the bottom out from under the strongest economy America had ever seen. I saw it coming, and watched it dissipate. It was so clear. I can not believe some people then wanted to elect his wife. They f****d it up once, that was enough for me.

onlooker, were you feeling a little "blue" yesterday? I can imagine how you must feel today!

Your revisionist history is highly amusing. It's almost like reading a delusional fantasy.

Back on topic, it's being widely reported that BD players will drop into <$200 category this Christmas. Hopefully that should give sales a boost.
post #2588 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

Back on topic, it's being widely reported that BD players will drop into <$200 category this Christmas. Hopefully that should give sales a boost.

The biggest hurdle for Blu-Ray is that even when it's a $200. buy, its really a $2000. buy.

You have to buy the player, a new widescreen hdtv, good AV cables and upgrade your cable subscription.

The actual player price isn't really the problem anymore. Headed into a recession, the problem is that enough people won't buy the player if they can't afford the add-ons. There are already stories about people having the proper setup and yet still buying DVDs because they're cheaper.
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post #2589 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by onlooker View Post

It's rough economy that is for sure. Blu Ray player sales will be just as poor as everything else this holiday season. If we still had that Regan/Bush - Bush/Quale escalating economy in place, Blu Ray would probably be in 70% more homes than it is, but we don't. You can thank Bill Clinton for surfing that Tsunami tidal wave of good fortune all way into shore. He wanted Change. That's what we got, that's all we got in our pockets. You shouldn't try and change anything that isn't fundamentally broken. That clown pulled the bottom out from under the strongest economy America had ever seen. I saw it coming, and watched it dissipate. It was so clear. I can not believe some people then wanted to elect his wife. They f****d it up once, that was enough for me.

Unbelievable that you would actually TYPE that, thinking it is crazy enough..

..Still, it is THIS thread, crazyier crap has been posted.. see Frank above
I don't see how an anti M$ stance can be seen as a bad thing on an Apple forum I really can't!

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I don't see how an anti M$ stance can be seen as a bad thing on an Apple forum I really can't!

nagromme - According to Amazon: "SpongBob Typing Tutor" is outselling Windows
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post #2590 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Slocombe View Post

..Still, it is THIS thread, crazyier crap has been posted.. see Frank above

What's crazy about my comment? HD media has always had that problem.

The whole world has caught a financial flu, with the American market particularly hard hit.
I was watching a show yesterday that said 1 in every 9 houses in areas of Cleveland (I think) has been foreclosed.
The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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post #2591 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

The biggest hurdle for Blu-Ray is that even when it's a $200. buy, its really a $2000. buy.

You have to buy the player, a new widescreen hdtv, good AV cables and upgrade your cable subscription.

What, someone put a gun to your head and told you to buy all that?

NA already has 36% HDTV penetration, and the TV is by far the largest expense. AV cables cost nothing. Your cable subscription, game consoles, optical disks can all be upgraded individually as you see fit. Or left as is. It's not like having a better TV makes your SD cable or Wii worthless.
Quote:
There are already stories about people having the proper setup and yet still buying DVDs because they're cheaper.

And what would be the problem with that? Some movies are not available in hi-def, and some gain too little from it to be worth the difference currently.
post #2592 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

Your revisionist history is highly amusing. It's almost like reading a delusional fantasy.

Quite. It seems Onlooker is reporting from an alternate reality, where Bill Clinton has been president for the past eight years, and the eight years before that never happened.
post #2593 of 2640
I'm simply saying that those 'extra' costs factor into the decision to purchase a BR player. That's all.
The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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post #2594 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

I'm simply saying that those 'extra' costs factor into the decision to purchase a BR player. That's all.

You've got it backwards. The only thing BR is dependent on to be worth it vs. DVD is that you must have a HDTV. That causes an obstacle for slightly over 60% of North Americans, who do not already have one.

It can be argued that HD cable subscriptions and HD game consoles being available indirectly *lower* that obstacle for the 60%, since they are additional *possibilities* which open up when you own a HDTV. Thereby the HDTV purchase that stands in the way of BR consumption becomes better value and easier to stomach.
post #2595 of 2640
I don't have any cable, let alone upgraded cable. (Nor do I have satellite) Somehow my Blu-ray player still works despite the apparent necessity of cable. I must have hacked it somehow in my sleep.
post #2596 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

The biggest hurdle for Blu-Ray is that even when it's a $200. buy, its really a $2000. buy.

You have to buy the player, a new widescreen hdtv, good AV cables and upgrade your cable subscription.

The actual player price isn't really the problem anymore. Headed into a recession, the problem is that enough people won't buy the player if they can't afford the add-ons. There are already stories about people having the proper setup and yet still buying DVDs because they're cheaper.

Frank you have this exactly backwards, a BD player is really an add on to the TV, not the other way around. HD sets are selling and even if that pace drops they're still in homes, so if BD players' price does drop to <$200, I've seen $150 mentioned, it becomes more of an attractive add-on.
post #2597 of 2640
well.. it really doesn't matter. For those who were serious about HDM in 2006 probably already owns a unit to play them . The market expansion has to happen with newer group of consumers or the J6P. The PS3 charm isn't enough anymore. There has to be enough incentive for Mr. John Doe to start buying more expensive bd movies over the cheaper dvd's. Only incentive would be buying them cheaper at the same price as the dvd version or even cheaper. However, during time like this with everyone tightening their belts, even the existing dvd market is shrinking. (Is rental/download/streaming market increasing?) The HDM market is not an exception, when it comes to shrinking market. There may be enough enthusiasts to keep the interest, but the interest level may remain in the niche for awhile.
always a newbie
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always a newbie
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post #2598 of 2640
Yeah, yeah. You've been saying that exact same thing since 2006. Meanwhile, despite less than 10 million Blu-ray players worldwide (including PS3), Blu-ray movies comprise 1/8th of the unit sales of the top 20 titles, according to Nielsen. And don't bring up the "what about the rest?" The drop-off is already significant within the top 20, the other titles are a small percentage. How many DVD players exist worldwide? How does 10 million compare to that? I doubt it's 1/8th. And projections as recently as last month were that Blu-ray standalone player sales this year will be triple that all HD players from last year, when the format war was still raging. You backed the wrong horse last year and now you're just trying to hobble the winner.
post #2599 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

You must have noticed that when it comes to human behavior, people just do whatever they want, and the law is just an irritant. Anti drug policies seem to have zero impact.

The record industry wasted years trying to prevent something that had already happened. The genie was out of the box. Adding ever more padlocks to that box was just a waste of money. DRM infected CDs drove even more people away!

The movie people are doing the same thing; comically trying to hang-on to a business model from the previous century. But I agree they'll take some time to reconsider. After a few years, curiosity gets the better of them. They peek inside the box and realise that it's empty.

What the industry does won't change how people chose to use media or technology. They don't have that power.
But the industry *can* attempt to monetize what people are doing.

Alternatively they can just sit there and watch their business model slowly evaporate.

C.

A little food for thought from people in the know.

The Digital Bits recently posted this :

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents

Quote:
Also today, do you recall that rant I posted a couple weeks back about how the talk of Blu-ray's demise was absurd? Our friend Ben Drawbaugh weighed in on the subject over at Engadget as well, and he's clearly of the same mind. Ben and I were e-mailing back and forth recently, and he made a few additional points about Blu-ray and the notion of downloading that I thought were interesting. First, he noted that while Apple was recently thrilled to announce program-to-date high-def TV series sales of $5 million via iTunes download, Blu-ray sold $17 million worth of titles that same week alone. Ben also sent the following, which made me smile...

"Top ten reasons that prove Hollywood is only playing in the downloads world while focusing its real efforts on Blu-ray.

10 - Movie commercials say "now available on Blu-ray and DVD" never mentions downloads.
9 - You can't rent TV shows from any download service, but you can buy them on disc.
8 - 24 hour rental window.
7 - 30 day rental limit.
6 - Extras only available on discs
5 - Can't rent HD movies on the PC (only on boxes like the 360, Vudu etc).
4 - Pulls previously available movies from the selection.
3 - About a 30 day window between when a title is released on disc and on download services.
2 - Digital copies are now included with many discs.
1 - Can't buy HD movies from any service."

Those are good points all. To them, I'll add the fact that according to VideoScan, Blu-ray now regularly hits as much as 10% of total sales of new release titles. In addition, there are now over 1,000 Blu-ray Disc titles released or scheduled for release according to the DVD Release Report (1,057 to be exact). That's a significant milestone after just two full years of format availability. Let's go further... as Blu-ray player pricing drops below $200 and even $150 this holiday season and into 2009, buying a Blu-ray player will become a no-brainer. Just a couple days ago, I was at the dentist and the hygienist was talking about how her DVD player had just died and she needed to get a new one. She asked about "this Blu-ray thing," and when I told her that she could get a BD player for under $200 and that it would play all her DVDs too, she was sold on the spot. That story is going to be repeated millions of times next year. ANYONE who walks into a Best Buy or a Wal-Mart looking to replace a broken cheap DVD player is going to learn about cheap Blu-ray/DVD players and think, "Why the hell not?" Have I mentioned the fact that Hollywood is being relentless in getting the word about Blu-ray Disc out? You're not going to see that with downloading. Why, you ask? You want the real clincher? The REAL reason why Blu-ray is going to be around a long time, and downloading isn't going to take over for a very long time? It's not just bandwidth, folks, though that's a problem too and will be for a while. No, the real roadblock is profit. Hollywood studios will NEVER be able to sell you a downloaded movie for $29.99 or $39.99. It'll NEVER happen. That would be like telling hardcore gamers that they can't buy games on physical discs anymore, but they still have to pay $60 for the latest, greatest titles. What this means is that downloading - best case - is going to take over the movie rental market, not sales. Any movie fans who want extras beyond just the movie itself, and want to actually own the content rather than continually rent it again and again, are going to stick with physical media. And that means Blu-ray. Anyone who tells you otherwise A) doesn't understand the home video industry or the movie enthusiast market, B) is a downloading advocate, or C) preferred HD-DVD and still feels sour grapes. That's not to say everyone who watches DVDs will make the switch to Blu, but this whole idea that Blu-ray isn't here to stay or is going to remain a super-über-high-end niche product is a load of malarkey. I'm just saying. Ben too. (Thanks again, Ben - great talking with you!)
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #2600 of 2640
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

What's crazy about my comment? HD media has always had that problem.

The whole world has caught a financial flu, with the American market particularly hard hit.
I was watching a show yesterday that said 1 in every 9 houses in areas of Cleveland (I think) has been foreclosed.


Frank do you really want to know how many ( middle class ) personal friends I know that HDTV's already?
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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