Originally Posted by NYCMacFan
I think the point he was making was that flash, RAM, and any chip based technology will see reductions in price (or improvements in performance) faster. To a certain extent, their profess is likely to follow something like Moore's law. Because HDD has mechanical aspects, it will continue to improve, but can't match the rate of cost recutions. So eventually SSD will overtake HDD, but it will take time.
In that sense, RAM, flash, processor speeds, video card performance - all could potentially hvae similar rates of performance increases/price reductions.
I'm not saying that it won't happen. But, to say it will happen within the next two or three years, as some are more than hinting to here, is just plain wrong.
These people are just not keeping up with the new technologies that are coming out for HDD's.
Hitachi, and others, expect to have 4 terabyte drives out, possibly as early as 2009.
When that happens, we will have one terabyte 2.5 drives for portable use, and 500 MB drives in the 1.8" factor size.
And, they will cost the same, or less, as the much smaller drives out today.
Drive size, and price, undergoes spurts in its advance. SST memory tends to have a more even advance. Sometimes, this makes HDD;s look as though they are falling behind, when they are not.
When we will have $300 4 terabyte 3.5" drives, and one terabyte $300 2.5" drives, who is going to be buying these vastly smaller, much more expensive SSD's?
The same customers as today. The military, and those industrial customers who need particularly ruggedized shop floor, or construction site, machines.
Very little of the rest of the market will be buying them.
look at how many people complain about how small the entry size drives are on Apple's machines now. And, also about how many complain that Apple's drive upgrades cost too much. Do you think these are candidates for the small, expensive SSD's? I don't think so.
Possibly when these drives have dropped in price by a factor of twenty, or more, and their size has increased by a factor of ten, will we begin to see widespread adoption.
At that point, the drives may be big, and cheap, enough for most people to not consider larger, and cheaper HDD's.
But, that could be closer to 2015 than to 2009.