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The Wii: does it do it for you? How much longer until it's passed by? - Page 2

post #41 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splinemodel View Post

I think it's clear that we have one or more Wii fanboys, and the rest are, at the worst, realists. I don't think that anyone here is a Wii hater, but we do all realize that the Wii is short lived. Maybe Nintendo will pull an ace out of its sleeve, but doing so will be far more difficult in 2008 than it was in 2006.

You do realize that you are taking the information, ratings and current rankings and drawing all the exact opposite conclusions with them that reality would dictate. Can you explain why a system claimed to appeal to everyone would sell to no one and why systems tailored to a narrow niche would sell blockbuster amounts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

I agree but Sony or MS could give users two sets of controllers with the purchase of a system. The real challenge as you mention is making them as functional as Nintendo has with the Wii.

The real challenge is not going broke. Both Microsoft and Sony are losing big money and both have already undertaken moves that alter their previous strategy in hopes of either hitting price points without losing more money or increasing sales while only losing what they had before. I don't follow this from a gamer perspective but from a financial one. Microsoft had to write off profits to pay for the extended and unreliable XBox360's. Sony had the creator of the Playstation "retire" and move in new management if I recall correctly. Meanwhile Nintendo stock is up almost 300%.

If they started tossing in motion controllers, their profits would go even lower. Nintendo's strategy would be even more validated and the markets, profits, and development would all jump accordingly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Good debate and interesting points on both sides.

Personally from my experience I think the Wii has permanently split the gaming market into two segments. One segment is the younger or beginning gamer which the Wii is greatly appealing. The other segment is the mature or hardcore gamer which is dominated by the x box 360 and PS3.

I think that both can and will survive. Kids love the Wii and hardcore gamers love their PS3 or Xbox360.

MS or Sony could introduce motion controllers for their systems and put a hurting on the Wii. I certainly wouldn't put it past them. But the Wii has some nice exclusive titles which would help them survive.

I don't think the market has split. I think a very loud and narrow interest group has declared they deserve the attention and development and now when it is time for the dollars to arrive, there aren't enough to go around. Between Battlefield, COD, Unreal, Quake Engine games, Valve, and Medal of Honor (just to name a few) exactly how many people do I need to kill with a gun? It is oversupply and lack of demand. Great graphics cannot overcome that.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #42 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by giant View Post

This view about Nintendo's target market is pretty strange considering the fact that the wii is notable for being so heavily marketed toward much older demographics than either the xbox or the ps3, going so far as to include high-profile marketing campaigns directed at seniors. And the virtual console? Nostalgia, aka, older gamers. Simply put, the wii has much broader (including older) target markets than either the ps3 or the xbox.

Isn't it obvious by the popular titles on each platform.

Wii- super Mario series

xbox 360- Halo series

PS3-? Resistance Fall of Man

Just how many younger adults and hard core gamers play super mario brothers?
post #43 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

I don't think the market has split. I think a very loud and narrow interest group has declared they deserve the attention and development and now when it is time for the dollars to arrive, there aren't enough to go around. Between Battlefield, COD, Unreal, Quake Engine games, Valve, and Medal of Honor (just to name a few) exactly how many people do I need to kill with a gun? It is oversupply and lack of demand. Great graphics cannot overcome that.

Nick

You may not like first person shooter games but did you see how many games Halo 3 sold when it came out?

Don't forget the online community surrounding these paltforms(360 and ps3) either. Very popular and likely a profit center one day. At least for MS.
post #44 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

You may not like first person shooter games but did you see how many games Halo 3 sold when it came out?

Don't forget the online community surrounding these paltforms(360 and ps3) either. Very popular and likely a profit center one day. At least for MS.

It isn't a profit center until it makes money. Microsoft had Halo 1 & 2 in the first round, lost $4 billion and barely sold more consoles than Nintendo. They haven't made a dime yet this round let alone recovered the losses from the previous round.

The better question to ask is what does it say about a market niche where it cannot gain mainstream acceptance except by means of dropping BILLIONS of losses on it?

It says that even at almost 6 million, the market segment is too narrow, or the experience isn't good enough to stand on it's own unless it is subsidized at a loss.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #45 of 165
Call of Duty 2 is like the best game ever.

I've played nothing but that for at least 2 yrs lol.
post #46 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

It isn't a profit center until it makes money. Microsoft had Halo 1 & 2 in the first round, lost $4 billion and barely sold more consoles than Nintendo. They haven't made a dime yet this round let alone recovered the losses from the previous round.

The better question to ask is what does it say about a market niche where it cannot gain mainstream acceptance except by means of dropping BILLIONS of losses on it?

It says that even at almost 6 million, the market segment is too narrow, or the experience isn't good enough to stand on it's own unless it is subsidized at a loss.

Nick

Don't confuse profitability with popularity.

Sure MS and Sony haven't figured out how to make money off their systems, but they still have an avid fan-base.
post #47 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Don't confuse profitability with popularity.

Sure MS and Sony haven't figured out how to make money off their systems, but they still have an avid fan-base.

I think you fail to realize the significance of those numbers. A loss of $4 billion means that Microsoft essentually GAVE each Xbox owner $160 to own the box and all the games they purchased with it. That is how much they lost after selling all the systems and receivng their cut off all the games.

I mean how popular would anything be that gave you $160 to own it?

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #48 of 165
So you're saying I can go up to any games shop and they'll give me a free X-Box 360, a few games and $160 cash??? I don't think so. I think you mean that they subsidised each X-Box console and royalties for games to the value of $160 per console. You still have to fork out $400+ to get it and a few games.

Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

I think you fail to realize the significance of those numbers. A loss of $4 billion means that Microsoft essentually GAVE each Xbox owner $160 to own the box and all the games they purchased with it. That is how much they lost after selling all the systems and receivng their cut off all the games.

I mean how popular would anything be that gave you $160 to own it?

Nick
post #49 of 165
Marvin:

Quote:
Didn't the PS3 outsell the Wii in Japan very recently?

For a grand total of two weeks, after a full $100 price drop for the PS3. The Wii still sold more for the month. The PS3 has not outsold the Wii in any month since release.

Quote:
A hardcore gamer is defined by the games and usually the level of difficulty. Inexperienced gamers may at times play similar games to hardcore gamers but not in the same way (they tend to run and button bash) and Nintendo's games clearly reflect this with more simplistic controls. It takes a certain degree of experience to be able to take full advantage of a next-gen game and if you are the type of person who picks up a controller and gets killed within 5 minutes playing Call of Duty then you are not a hardcore gamer. The same goes if you just run through the street shooting roughly in the direction of what looks like an enemy.

The only game I have played that I thought was truly difficult is the Ninja Gaiden series NES to present. What "hardcore" games are actually hard? It takes nuance and subtlety and experience to take "full advantage" (whatever that means) of even simplistic games like Wii Bowling.


backtomac:

Quote:
Don't confuse profitability with popularity.

Can I "confuse" number of units sold with popularity?
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post #50 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

Can you explain why a system claimed to appeal to everyone would sell to no one and why systems tailored to a narrow niche would sell blockbuster amounts?

You could ask a similar question about the iMac. There are other factors to consider.

Price is a big problem regarding the current console lineup. Who would pay £400 for a games machines? Very few people. Then drop down a bit to the XBox. Price is ok but reliability isn't and it's a really noisy machine too. That puts me off buying one. Then add in the price of the games at £40-50 each.

The Wii only looks good relative to the flaws of the other consoles and it has a gimmick. The iMac has a gimmick of saving desk space. This appeals to people who don't care about lower spec hardware. The Wii has the Wii-mote, which appeals to people who don't care about lower spec hardware.

Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

Between Battlefield, COD, Unreal, Quake Engine games, Valve, and Medal of Honor (just to name a few) exactly how many people do I need to kill with a gun? It is oversupply and lack of demand. Great graphics cannot overcome that.

Well, you've just named a whole bunch of FPS games. There are also racing games, sports games and other genres. How many times do you need to play as Mario or Luigi?

FPS games also have different styles of gameplay. Splinter Cell emphasizes stealth (avoiding combat) with night and heat vision, Call of Duty is a war simulation so requires more tactical offensive maneuvers. They have different weapons and different environments. Socom Tactical Strike has completely different gameplay mechanics again with squad based commands where you have a team of people with different abilities. It's wrong to lump all of these games together and suggest they have any degree of redundancy between them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat

For a grand total of two weeks, after a full $100 price drop for the PS3. The Wii still sold more for the month. The PS3 has not outsold the Wii in any month since release.

But it's still evidence that there may be a shift in sales soon. The cut down PS3 (40GB, no PS2 support) is now only £300 whereas a Wii is £205 at least. I can see a big shift happening over Christmas. I think by the end of January, the PS3 will be outselling the Wii.
post #51 of 165
Looks like I am still around.

So anyways, Wii totally does not do it for me. I have my PC now playing nice graphics at 1280x1024, 4xAA or so, basically pretty stuff and smooth gameplay with.

Unreal Tournament 3
NeedForSpeed: ProStreet

Before this: a lot of Sega Rally (fun!)
You can't say no to a game that has a Sonic skin on a *rally* car.
Plus that signature "Sega" Rock walls ala Daytona1 arcade.

However, looks like my next PC upgrade in 6 months has to be
to go up to 4GB RAM, quad core, dual nVidia 8900GT etc.
AND I HAVE TO RUN VISTA FOR PRETTY DIRECTX10 STUFF.

Time to call it quits on PC gaming. Around mid-2008.

However in my country:
1. PS3 games cost 3x more than PC games
2. If you can find them
3. XBOX360 is not officially sold here
4. Only grey imports
5. PS3 is not officially sold here
6. Only grey imports
7. See no.2 as relates to no.3

In other words, Vista has to suck majorly less than it does now,
PS3 has to officially be friggin sold in this bloody country
PS3 games have to be down to about $100+ local currency
like PC games (talking all original stuff here)

Maybe a Wii 2?

I just don't see it happening with console though.

Particularly with Starcraft2. Teh best RTS everrr. Maybe.
post #52 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

....Between Battlefield, COD, Unreal, Quake Engine games, Valve, and Medal of Honor (just to name a few) exactly how many people do I need to kill with a gun? It is oversupply and lack of demand. Great graphics cannot overcome that....

Battlefield..COD..GhostRecon... I don't like "realistic" shooters.
Quake4/Doom3 - don't like the engine
Unreal Tournament 2004, UT3 -- great graphics, great AI, great gameplay
bots are pretty good now, almost like real online play
HL2: I liked the storyline and atmosphere of HL2 and HL2:Episode1
I gave HL2:Ep2 a pass though.

Even with shooters there is a distinction. Don't forget Crysis
which tries to separate itself as the ultimate... etc... Hellgate London...

Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Isn't it obvious by the popular titles on each platform.
Wii- super Mario series
xbox 360- Halo series
PS3-? Resistance Fall of Man
Just how many younger adults and hard core gamers play super mario brothers?

Yeah, none of those titles interest me in the slightest.
post #53 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by s.metcalf View Post

So you're saying I can go up to any games shop and they'll give me a free X-Box 360, a few games and $160 cash??? I don't think so. I think you mean that they subsidised each X-Box console and royalties for games to the value of $160 per console. You still have to fork out $400+ to get it and a few games.

The point stands that items which need to be subsidized just to get out the door to make equal or the same numbers are not "better" by any objective measure.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

You could ask a similar question about the iMac. There are other factors to consider.

Price is a big problem regarding the current console lineup. Who would pay £400 for a games machines? Very few people. Then drop down a bit to the XBox. Price is ok but reliability isn't and it's a really noisy machine too. That puts me off buying one. Then add in the price of the games at £40-50 each.

The Wii only looks good relative to the flaws of the other consoles and it has a gimmick. The iMac has a gimmick of saving desk space. This appeals to people who don't care about lower spec hardware. The Wii has the Wii-mote, which appeals to people who don't care about lower spec hardware.

Here's a hint. It isn't a "gimmick." It is a purchase consideration. You cite the example of the iMac. When I was growing up, computers were hugely expensive and so the family likely had one and they placed it in the computer room/office. In this day and age, we've run out of room. The computers are cheap and the living space is expensive. In that setting, buying a smaller computer versus paying more for living space is a key component of the purchase decision. It is certainly not a gimmick.

As I noted with the previous post, to list ONLY graphics as a consideration for purchase and nothing else is not consistent with reality. Kids have to own these consoles. They may be used in bedrooms that are often 10'x10' or 10'x12' and perhaps shared with a sibling.

I mean how can you see the number of LCD televisions and monitors being purchased and think of concepts like energy use, heat generation, space and noise as "gimmicks?" Every industry outside of the video console market is experiencing and adapting to the same set of variables. The iPod exists so people wouldn't have to carry or even purchase CD's. We are not wondering why DVD sales are down in an age of video on demand, video iPods/Apple TV/ and straight up internet streaming. Perhaps that movie industry is but the rest of us are not. I'm not going to have an armoire with a large tube television and hundreds of DVD's in it. I'll have a television as big as that cabinet or an LCD television sitting above my fireplace and let the hundreds of DVD's be reduced to a single hard drive.

Finally no matter what you think about Wii, Xbox360, or PS3 they are all being beaten by the DS. Ultimately these same "gimmicks" portability, usability, low power use are winning no matter who applies them.

In fact if anything we should really be thankful for the Apple's and Nintendo's right now. America always has this mentality of bigger, better and faster. Those aren't the only considerations in the world. I don't like it when government's dictate a solution but here the markets are rewarding companies for endorsing the right set of priorities.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #54 of 165
All video games are gimmicks. That's why we like them.

Marvin:

Quote:
But it's still evidence that there may be a shift in sales soon.

"The sun will come out tomorrow! Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow there'll be suuuun!"

Quote:
I can see a big shift happening over Christmas. I think by the end of January, the PS3 will be outselling the Wii.

I think you're wrong, but that's a fairly easy prediction on my part.

Quote:
It's wrong to lump all of these games together and suggest they have any degree of redundancy between them.

Do you feel it is "right" to lump Nintendo games together and suggest they have any degree of redundancy between them?
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post #55 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

TWhen I was growing up, computers were hugely expensive and so the family likely had one and they placed it in the computer room/office. In this day and age, we've run out of room. The computers are cheap and the living space is expensive. In that setting, buying a smaller computer versus paying more for living space is a key component of the purchase decision. It is certainly not a gimmick.

Let's count how many people have these huge towers that we used to use. That's right, still over 90% of the world. Guess they are all living in massive houses that they can afford to dedicate such a huge portion of living space to their computer.

Or...

maybe the saving isn't really all that much.

Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

As I noted with the previous post, to list ONLY graphics as a consideration for purchase and nothing else is not consistent with reality. Kids have to own these consoles. They may be used in bedrooms that are often 10'x10' or 10'x12' and perhaps shared with a sibling.

So why on earth would anyone invent a system that involves waving the controller around? That's just abusing living space that isn't available. Those poor kids with a Wii must be getting hit all the time with their friends swinging their arms around in these really cramped rooms.

Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

I mean how can you see the number of LCD televisions and monitors being purchased and think of concepts like energy use, heat generation, space and noise as "gimmicks?"

Don't forget Global Warming. *cue scary music*

Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

Finally no matter what you think about Wii, Xbox360, or PS3 they are all being beaten by the DS. Ultimately these same "gimmicks" portability, usability, low power use are winning no matter who applies them.

That doesn't really work. The DS is not beating all of them because it's not competing with all of them. Hi Mr salesman, I'd like to play Gears of War please. Oh come this way sir and have a look at all of our nice Nintendo DS machines. Not quite.

What you are basically saying is that because the Macbook sells more than the Mac Pro, it is somehow winning. That doesn't make sense because they are not for the same target audience.

The Nintendo sales depend a lot on Japan. There are a *lot* of people over there so the sales figures don't really tell the whole story. Plus Nintendo advertise a hell of a lot on TV. At least in the UK. They have all sorts of celebs like Nicole Kidman on there using some brain training. Then they have ads about the Wii-mote and then they have ads just before and after TV shows saying they've sponsored the show or something.

So add Japan + gimmicks + insane levels of advertising and it's not hard to see why their products have had some success.

Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

In fact if anything we should really be thankful for the Apple's and Nintendo's right now. America always has this mentality of bigger, better and faster. Those aren't the only considerations in the world.

You're right, to hell with value for money. Let's have smaller, slower products for the same or higher price. I don't need a whole turkey at Christmas, give me a leg but charge me the same please.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat

All video games are gimmicks. That's why we like them.

Gimmicks are fads that appeal to either a minority and/or for a short amount of time. Game franchises can last decades as Nintendo has proved.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat

Do you feel it is "right" to lump Nintendo games together and suggest they have any degree of redundancy between them?

No but I don't think anybody has. People have said that most of Nintendo's games are targeted at children or inexperienced gamers. That common ground is not redundancy that reduces the appeal of the individual games as was suggested of the FPS games. But what it does is reduce interest from a mature gaming market.

Nintendo are the Disney of the gaming world. If you were to ask a group of twenty-something men what their favorite movie distributor was and they said Dimension Films and you said well what's wrong with Disney? They don't just make kids movies, they have a few titles for grown ups too. OAPs and heck even mums and dads like Disney movies so they clearly aren't just for kids. They'd be none to quick to hop on the Disney band-wagon.

Ah but Disney are making a lot of money so they must be doing something right. Maybe we should all take a lesson from them and we should all be watching Disney movies. After all, they impose good morals on us just like the nice people at Apple and Nintendo about saving space and energy. What a clean, energy-efficient, happy, happy fun place the world would be if we just played along.
post #56 of 165
What turns a person like myself off on the PS3/360 is the $1000+ 'HDTV Premium' that you have to tack on to the price of the console.

In other words, to fully enjoy the hawt graphics on those consoles, you need an HDTV. I don't own one, and granted prices are dropping like mad, but generally on smallish 720 screens, which aren't future proof at this point. So I don't see myself affording a decent sized, 1080 screen anytime soon.

HDTV penetration apparently isn't all that high yet in any case, depending on the source:

Quote:
Nielsen found that only 13.7% of TV households in the United States -- or roughly 15.5 million out of 112.8 million total U.S. TV households -- are equipped with HD televisions and HD tuners capable of receiving HDTV signals, a status Nielsen described as HD Capable.

That 13.7% figure is much lower than research from the Consumer Electronics Association, the trade group representing HDTV-set manufacturers. The CEA estimated that HDTV household penetration in July 2007 stood at 32% -- or some 36 million homes, going by Nielsens household numbers -- and would rise to 36% by year-end. The CEA put the total number of HDTV sets sold by year-end 2006 at 39.9 million, climbing to 60.6 million by the end of this year, and it said one-third of HD households own multiple sets
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post #57 of 165
Let me use my statistic skillz.

Kids that play video games is a market. Mostly all kids play video games these days. Minors are 25% of the US population.

The "hardcore gamer" I guess are the number of US adults that have enough time to play video games i.e. people that are unemployed. The unemployment rate is 5% of the labor force, which is less than the 4% of the US population.

This means that the kids market is at least 5 times greater than the hardcore gamer market.

(you have also to include in the hardcore gamer market the percentage of these gamers that are "not hardcore enough" to have money to pay for a console lol)

If I were a game developer, I'd surely develop for the children!
post #58 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat View Post


backtomac:
Can I "confuse" number of units sold with popularity?

I don't know. Can you?

Really I think we agree more than we disagree. If you read my replies you see that I think the Wii is a viable platform for the long run.

I don't think that all the people who play Halo though are rushing out to get a Wii. Its not meant to be insulting to say that the Wii appeals to younger and newer gamers. That's just the reality of things. This was apparently an untapped market until the Wii came along.
post #59 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

I think you fail to realize the significance of those numbers. A loss of $4 billion means that Microsoft essentually GAVE each Xbox owner $160 to own the box and all the games they purchased with it. That is how much they lost after selling all the systems and receivng their cut off all the games.

I mean how popular would anything be that gave you $160 to own it?

Nick

As I understand it, the 360 would have begun to be profitable this year until MS had to set aside around 2 billion to cover hardware failures on the 360.

Looks like the 360 may not ever reach profitability. I wouldn't count them out for the next generation though. They've put a hurtin' on Sony and who knows if they can keep going.
post #60 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by iPoster View Post

In other words, to fully enjoy the hawt graphics on those consoles, you need an HDTV.

No you don't. That's like saying to enjoy a film you need to watch it in HD. The PS3 and 360 advantages are the shader effects, scene complexities, texture quality etc and all this shows through on an SD display. HD is better but far from necessary.

Quote:
Originally Posted by soulcrusher

The "hardcore gamer" I guess are the number of US adults that have enough time to play video games i.e. people that are unemployed. The unemployment rate is 5% of the labor force, which is less than the 4% of the US population.

Nope, hardcore doesn't necessarily mean you play games a lot. Anyway, working single guys in their twenties have evenings and weekends (lots of hours to kill). But I will agree that kids are more into games than adults.

Quote:
Originally Posted by soulcrusher

If I were a game developer, I'd surely develop for the children!

The only issue with that is a lot of developers don't like making kids games. I knew people at uni who wanted to develop games and they'd never even consider making a kids game in a million years. If a rock band only had a small group of fans but a kids sing-a-long group was on a sell-out tour, you're telling me you'd suggest the rock band follow the same route?

Does it really matter that these companies make a loss? If they gain market share and mind share then that's a valuable thing. Not only that, how much do M$ make with their online services? How much will Sony make by establishing Blu-Ray as *the* next media format of choice for HD video first and then storage? Their current losses can easily pay off in the long term.
post #61 of 165
There are people who prefer Super Mario Bros. to FPS games. There are people who prefer Mario Kart to realistic racing games. There are people who like to play 2-dimensional games because of the "fun" factor and not because of the "whoah!" factor of realistic 3D graphics. These people are the ones for whom the Wii works. And for the Wii to work for these people, it doesn't have to compete on spec.
post #62 of 165
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

You do realize that you are taking the information, ratings and current rankings and drawing all the exact opposite conclusions with them that reality would dictate. Can you explain why a system claimed to appeal to everyone would sell to no one and why systems tailored to a narrow niche would sell blockbuster amounts?

This is when you have to take off the swirly glasses and read all the news. The hard data here are both the success of Guitar Hero type games and Japanese market trends as of last month, although neither of you are actually concerned with hard data so perhaps I'm wasting my time. My "weak logic" [Grove] that the rampant success of Guitar Hero will lead to integration of custom controllers in other games, of course, means nothing.

That is the gimmick of the Wii, is it not? A unique controller? Otherwise, the Wii's games are complete rehash. I give Nintendo all the credit they deserve for being clever and daring enough to make a good product out of the motion controller, but that is ALL the Wii has, and it's an advantage that we are seeing to be short lived. If that is somehow counter-intuitive to you, there's nothing I can do to spell it out more simply. I'm out there saying "Other developers will find success in Harmonix's footsteps" and you're saying "no." I assume that neither of you are investors.
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post #63 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

As I understand it, the 360 would have begun to be profitable this year until MS had to set aside around 2 billion to cover hardware failures on the 360.

Looks like the 360 may not ever reach profitability. I wouldn't count them out for the next generation though. They've put a hurtin' on Sony and who knows if they can keep going.

Profitable as in no longer losing any additional money or profitable as in having made up all the previously declared losses? I suspect it is the former and not the latter. However even as you said, the point is moot now because of reliability issues.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Splinemodel View Post

This is when you have to take off the swirly glasses and read all the news. The hard data here are both the success of Guitar Hero type games and Japanese market trends as of last month, although neither of you are actually concerned with hard data so perhaps I'm wasting my time. My "weak logic" [Grove] that the rampant success of Guitar Hero will lead to integration of custom controllers in other games, of course, means nothing.

That is the gimmick of the Wii, is it not? A unique controller? Otherwise, the Wii's games are complete rehash. I give Nintendo all the credit they deserve for being clever and daring enough to make a good product out of the motion controller, but that is ALL the Wii has, and it's an advantage that we are seeing to be short lived. If that is somehow counter-intuitive to you, there's nothing I can do to spell it out more simply. I'm out there saying "Other developers will find success in Harmonix's footsteps" and you're saying "no." I assume that neither of you are investors.

I assure you I read plenty of news. It isn't news of the gaming review variety but of who is making money and moving units variety. The trend for Japan in the last month has PS3 doing better, but Wii coming back and taking the lead again. For the last year Wii has won 50 out of 53 weeks. You do not use an exception or outlier to prove the rule. Now let us look at your second contention, that people will spend money on custom controllers. Let us say you are right. What this does though is show that the Wii is actually going to win this round because people feel that a controller that goes beyond control pads and buttons adds enough value to make a purchase. You and others call this a gimmick but it others call it value added.

If we were investors (which I am) I would not bet on the current strategy of Microsoft or Sony.

Nick

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post #64 of 165
Okay, so i've read almost all the posts, and all the debates, and this is what i have to say as a gamer for about 11 years ( since i was 7 ). I started of with the NES, loved mario, and bomber man, and of course, who could forget, duck hunt!. I loved these games as a kid, but of course i evolved and got tired of playing mario for such a long time. Then i moved on to the sega genesis. I got into mortal combat and street fighter, more violent fighting games, loved it.

After getting tired of sonic and all those other games, i got the best thing, the n64. The only shooting games that i remember for it are the james bond games, besides that there was nothing. I ended up getting bored with it and later got a game boy. The game boy kicked ass. Pokemon was by far the most played game i had. But of course, i grew tired and that's when i got into better things.

Now i have the x box. I got rainbow six three and fell in love with the realistic shooter. I just simply loved it. Halo 1 and 2 were simply amazing as well.

Last year my xbox died on me and a few weeks ago i replaced it with the 360 and cod4. Best freaking shooter i have ever played. I love the intensity, and just love playing it period.

So basically, as a kid i was more into the nintendo games. Children games. Then i got a bit more mature ( not much ) and got into bigger and better things.

In my opinion, the most childish is the wii. i mean common, i've played all the wii sports and it made me feel homosexual. The graphics are terrible and for gods sake, you don't even know if you're putting the game in right because there's no drive that pops out. The sensor is also terribly made. I was playing wii boxing and it sucked hard core.

After the wii, and past nintendo concils, you come to playstation and sony. The games are much more mature, more violence, blood, fun etc... but aren't really my taste

and finally, in my opinion, the most mature would be the 360. The best shooters are on the 360, and let's face it, there's more shooters and fun stuff a like on the 360 than on the playstation.

Of course whether the 360 or ps3 is more mature is up for debate, true gamers know that the wii is for children, or for people who want to lose weight from wii boxing! D:
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post #65 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by iPoster View Post

What turns a person like myself off on the PS3/360 is the $1000+ 'HDTV Premium' that you have to tack on to the price of the console.

In other words, to fully enjoy the hawt graphics on those consoles, you need an HDTV. I don't own one, and granted prices are dropping like mad, but generally on smallish 720 screens, which aren't future proof at this point. So I don't see myself affording a decent sized, 1080 screen anytime soon.

HDTV penetration apparently isn't all that high yet in any case, depending on the source:

Yes thank you. I actually forgot about the HDTV for a while...

I now have to weigh a 4gb Core2Quad 2.66ghz dual 8800GT 512mb (each) Vista DirectX against:

PS3
32" LCD HDTV
PS3 games
Some SatelliteTV (no cable) connection to make use of the HDTV
BluRays to make use of HDTV
Mac Mini/ AppleTV

It will mark my personal complete stopping of using PCs at this point

Luckily I have until mid-2008 to decide.

Interestingly, with such a powerful machine, my 17" computer LCD
at 1280x1024 won't cut it.

I need to be looking at 20" widescreen 1600x1200...

So, decisions decisions. That's what marketers are salivating over.

The 15-35 year olds (male), that are ready to hit the more
premium end of gaming, but could go both ways, either HiDefConsole
or PerformanceOverclockedPC.

That's the way I am seeing things right now.

WHERE THE HELL ARE THOSE SED Displays?
Man, talk about vapourware.
post #66 of 165
You know I was going to go and look up stats on how much money the PS1 made for Sony and how much money the PS2 made for Sony but read the following posts and decided nah. The other side isn't interested in any sort of discussion or data.

If you can't even agree that there is such a thing as a hardcore market vs a casual market there there is no common basis of understanding for debate. If you can't accept when Nintendo effectively says "yeah...its just an updated GC" then you aren't open to new information no matter how good the source.

The undisputed fact is that both the 360 and PS3 are getting new games that (the disputed) hard core gamers have been waiting for. Halo 3, Mass Effect, Assassin's Creed, etc. This means that both platforms are going to be much more desired this XMas than last. With MGS4, Killzone 2, and Little Big Planet due for the PS3 it should do better in 2008 than 2007. Given the Wii is still hardware constrained there's no reason to expect that both the 360 and the PS3 won't do better relative to the Wii this Xmas.

Oh, only from memory and no links, I recall that the PS2 breakeven on R&D was 20M units. We all know that they exceeded that. Ergo the PS2 was a money maker for Sony and profitable from nearly the beginning. The PS1 was marketed toward the older demographic vs Nintendo from day 1 and there has always been a higher emphasis on the "hardcore" gamer. That means typically male, typically from mid-teen to early adult.

Therefore there is an assload of money to be made on the hardcore market based on data from the past. That MS followed the Sega model doesn't mean that the hardcore market is not profitable. It just means that MS as a ton of money to spend in what it thinks are strategic areas they want to dominate.

And yes, the Wii appeals to the casual gamer which is dominated by females over 30*. Casual games is a multi-billion dollar business (a likely bigger assload than the hardcore market) and Wii is the only console really tapped into that market and actively marketing for it and not the hardcore market.

This will change since MS will move in this area and so will Sony. MS has shown the willingness to dump tons of money into the console market and they wont ignore Nintendo's success as another battlefront against Sony. MS want's to own the set top as much as it owns the desk top. Sony is a potential threat (with Linux) but Nintendo isn't at all.

Oh, yeah and as for Giant...yes, Nintendo is skewed for the kid demographics and the ESRB ratings show that. Are you going to also complain that just because Disney makes a lot of G and a few PG movies that they aren't also skewed toward the kid demographic?

When I say mature I mean games deplicting killing people. That some parents let their younger kids play violent games rated M doesn't anything more than some parents letting their younger kids watch R rated movies. Neither M games or R movies are made for the kid demographic. Nintendo and Disney play to the same market. Disney is big enough that it has other studios that do more mature themes under a different label. Nintendo does not and doesn't have a platform all that capable of serving that market anyway.

V

* 60-70% of the casual game download market is females over 30.
post #67 of 165
Marvin:

Quote:
People have said that most of Nintendo's games are targeted at children or inexperienced gamers. That common ground is not redundancy that reduces the appeal of the individual games as was suggested of the FPS games. But what it does is reduce interest from a mature gaming market.

Wait wait wait… FPS games are not targeted at children and inexperienced gamers? I really think you're fooling yourself. FPS games are aimed at 11+. Little kids love Halo.

I would bet that Wii owners are actually older, on average, than Xbox360/PS3 owners.

Quote:
Nintendo are the Disney of the gaming world. If you were to ask a group of twenty-something men what their favorite movie distributor was and they said Dimension Films and you said well what's wrong with Disney? They don't just make kids movies, they have a few titles for grown ups too. OAPs and heck even mums and dads like Disney movies so they clearly aren't just for kids. They'd be none to quick to hop on the Disney band-wagon.

This analogy is absurd. If this were the case, why are there so many people who like the games? It is not just children. (I won't be so delusional as to call any gamer "mature".)

Quote:
What a clean, energy-efficient, happy, happy fun place the world would be if we just played along.

So buying game products from Sony and Microsoft is now a way to rage against the machine?


backtomac:

Quote:
I don't think that all the people who play Halo though are rushing out to get a Wii. Its not meant to be insulting to say that the Wii appeals to younger and newer gamers. That's just the reality of things. This was apparently an untapped market until the Wii came along.

I think the mistake in your logic is the assumption that Halo is meant for "experienced gamers" anymore than Mario games are. I think that's a massive falsehood.

I think the real sticking point here is the desire of one group to feel like their video games are something adult and mature, when in reality it's just a different form of Mario. I am perfectly willing to laugh at myself for staying up late at night playing Super Mario Galaxy, I have no need to delude myself into thinking it is not, in some respects, a childish waste of time.



Splinemodel:

Your logic is weak. Rock Band is not the first popular game to command a premium for associated peripherals. We have no example of a late-coming control device spreading across multiple games with big sales. The next one we see will be the first. The weakness in your logic is taking a remote possibility and assuming it is the Next Big Thing.

Quote:
That is the gimmick of the Wii, is it not? A unique controller? Otherwise, the Wii's games are complete rehash.

The Xbox 360 and PS3 are not complete rehashes? What popular game for these systems lacks a number after its title?
Halo 3? Oh wait….
Gran Turismo 5? Oh wait…
GTA 4? Oh wait…
Killzone 2? Oh wait…
Metal Gear Solid 4? Oh wait…
Madden 2008? Oh wait…

Quote:
I'm out there saying "Other developers will find success in Harmonix's footsteps" and you're saying "no."

Other developers might very well find success in that way, as developers did before Harmonix. Where your logic falls apart is translating that into some ill omen for Nintendo.



Rich-Myster:

Quote:
In my opinion, the most childish is the wii. i mean common, i've played all the wii sports and it made me feel homosexual.

You and I have different ideas of what "childish" means. I mean, common.
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post #68 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

Profitable as in no longer losing any additional money or profitable as in having made up all the previously declared losses?
Nick

Well you have to start somewhere.

It doesn't matter. The 360 will be replaced before it has a chance to become profitable.
post #69 of 165
Let's ALL feel homosexual together.
A good brain ain't diddly if you don't have the facts
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A good brain ain't diddly if you don't have the facts
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post #70 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Yes thank you. I actually forgot about the HDTV for a while...

Well, I think I'm getting a 19" Aquos HDTV for free from Verizon. The cost of HDTVs are certainly falling if a company is giving them away to steal customers from Comcast.
post #71 of 165
Actually, if a girl and I are playing Wii late at night or after a date, there is a good chance she will sleep with me.

That's if I had a Wii. Or a date. Or a girl willing to go on a date.

Damn it. I *am* homosexual.
post #72 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Well, I think I'm getting a 19" Aquos HDTV for free from Verizon. The cost of HDTVs are certainly falling if a company is giving them away to steal customers from Comcast.

Nice brand, but 19" is kinda the new de facto good desktop PC size monitor... 19" as HDTV sounds quite small. Don't be fooled by Verizon !! But yeah, prices *are* coming down all the time, etc. relative to the size you can get... bigger, better, cheaper.
post #73 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Actually, if a girl and I are playing Wii late at night or after a date, there is a good chance she will sleep with me.

That's if I had a Wii. Or a date. Or a girl willing to go on a date.

Damn it. I *am* homosexual.

That's funny!

Actually, I find the 360's make me feel Jewish, and the PS3's make me feel French. Go figure....
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post #74 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Nice brand, but 19" is kinda the new de facto good desktop PC size monitor... 19" as HDTV sounds quite small. Don't be fooled by Verizon !! But yeah, prices *are* coming down all the time, etc. relative to the size you can get... bigger, better, cheaper.

Heh...its free. I wouldn't actually buy a 19" HDTV although the bedroom LCD TV I have is 19". This would be replacing the old TV in the bedroom and while I'd have liked it to be a little bigger...it's hard to beat free for something I was thinking of doing anyway (Verizon Triple Play). The $800 or so I save from not getting a real HDTV of larger size will go into something else.

I dunno, like maybe a Wii for the kids and a 360 for me.
post #75 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea

60-70% of the casual game download market is females over 30.

And I think it's no coincidence that they are the most likely group of people to be buying for young children.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat View Post

Wait wait wait FPS games are not targeted at children and inexperienced gamers? I really think you're fooling yourself. FPS games are aimed at 11+. Little kids love Halo.

Yeah but in the 12+ age group, you're starting to leave the Wii market. You get the beginning of the maturing stage up until about 15 or 16 and it's hardcore gaming all the way through to the 30s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat View Post

I would bet that Wii owners are actually older, on average, than Xbox360/PS3 owners.

It's not about age as a number but age as a group. The group 15-30 is the hardcore gaming market. 0-15 and 30+ are the casual, inexperienced gamers. So yes there are older people playing the Wii but ones that aren't in the hardcore gaming group.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat View Post

This analogy is absurd. If this were the case, why are there so many people who like the games? It is not just children. (I won't be so delusional as to call any gamer "mature".)

Hardcore gamers are no less mature than people who read adult-oriented fictional books or watch adult-oriented films.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat View Post

So buying game products from Sony and Microsoft is now a way to rage against the machine?

Yes, join the resistance. There is a disease sweeping our countries where we are being fed watered down hardware with weak, childish software packages. We need raw power to drive our violent and engaging software. We don't need any more iMacs with imovie and Wiis with Mario. We need Core 2 Quad PCs with 8800GTS cards running Crysis and high end 3D software and PS3s/360s running Call of Duty 4.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat View Post

I think the real sticking point here is the desire of one group to feel like their video games are something adult and mature, when in reality it's just a different form of Mario. I am perfectly willing to laugh at myself for staying up late at night playing Super Mario Galaxy, I have no need to delude myself into thinking it is not, in some respects, a childish waste of time.

This seems like the real issue. You want to somehow tie everyone in together so that you don't feel childish playing kids games.

Imagine two twenty-something men, one watches Saw 4, the other watches the Lion King. The Lion King guy says well look Disney make grown up films too so me watching the Lion King is no different from anyone else my age watching a grown up Disney movie with some violence in it, after all the daddy lion gets killed horribly. This mean me watching the Lion King is just as mature as watching Saw 4.

Compare these movies and tell me they are equivalent:
http://uk.gamespot.com/video/939212/...meplay-movie-1
http://uk.gamespot.com/video/915692/...--part-2-of-12

Another point is you would never hear swear words used in kids games. The day I hear Mario say 'Yoshi, hurry the f* up or the piece of s* mushroom is going to kick your ass, I have to get to that bitch Peach before Bowser rips her f*in' head off', then Mario is for mature gamers. And then at the end you find Peach nekkid in the shower with Luigi.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat View Post

The Xbox 360 and PS3 are not complete rehashes? What popular game for these systems lacks a number after its title?
Halo 3? Oh wait.
Gran Turismo 5? Oh wait
GTA 4? Oh wait
Killzone 2? Oh wait
Metal Gear Solid 4? Oh wait
Madden 2008? Oh wait

It's nothing compared to Mario 39 though (I'm sure I've missed some).

Super Mario Bros 1, 2, 3 , Super Mario Land 1, 2, Super Mario World 1, 2 (Yoshi's island), Mario 64, Super Mario Sunshine, Luigi's mansion, New Super Mario Bros (DS), Super Smash bros + Melee, Mario Kart (SNES), Mario Kart 64, Mario Golf, Mario Tennis, Mario: Legend of the Seven stars, Mario Party 1-8 (yes 8!), Dance dance revolution: Mario Mix, Super Mario Strikers, Mario baseball, Mario hoops 3 on 3, Dr Mario, Mario Paint, Mario Pinball Land, Paper Mario, Mario & Luigi superstar saga, Paper Mario: the thousand-year door (presumably a reference to the franchise's projeted lifespan), Mario & Luigi: partners in Time, Super Paper Mario, Super Mario Galaxy.

There's nothing wrong with a franchise but to keep bringing it back over and over and over shows how little innovation there is. Even with Call of Duty 4, they changed the kind of gameplay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by groverat View Post

You and I have different ideas of what "childish" means. I mean, common.

Just make sure you don't get your sex-life mixed up in that loose definition of childish. To the rest of us, there is a well-defined boundary: Nintendo and Fisher Price on one side, everyone else on the other.
post #76 of 165
I own a Wii. Both the graphics and audio are dated, in some cases, worse than PS2. Wii's inferiority is particularly noticeable when you compare cross-platform titles like Guitar Hero III. I really wish Wii is at least capable of 720p and DD (5.1) audio.

But I wouldn't trade Wii for PS3 or Xbox 360. Aside from few strategy and role playing games, neither of which works well on gaming console, I am just not into games. Then I played Wii at a friend's place and my wife and I were hooked. I have tried various games for PS3 and Xbox 360 just to make sure I was making the right decision, and I just didn't care for their games.

Yes, Wii Sports is ridiculously simple and limited. But my wife and I still have fun competing against each other, and still enjoy creating Mii of new friends or interesting celebrity. Super Mario Galaxy is a lot of fun, and we look forward to playing upcoming dated and simple titles like Wii Fit and Mario Kart. If you are a gamer, Wii's dated technology and family-oriented game titles probably won't appeal to you. But as Wii's enormous success proved, there's a huge market for these so-called non-gamers. Let's not forget that Wii is the only gaming platform designed to appeal women.
post #77 of 165
I know tens of people roughly between 22 and 28 who play games. At least two guys have been in Europe's best clans in different FPS games. At least two have been in national top-10 in a RTS. At least three are active in game development, a designer, a lead programmer and a graphics programmer.

Now, out of this bunch who obviously knows their games, how many have extolled Halo, CoD, Resistance, etc.? Zero. The last FPS games I heard something about from my circle of friends were FEAR and FarCry, and that was mostly in the vein of "check out how my 24" screen looks with this new graphics card". I'm not saying they don't get played, but I am saying they are much too cookie cutter to make a wave in this particular mature gamer crowd.

What kind of trends have I seen in the last five years or so from this group? Big screen and/or projector, and consoles with party games (anything from 4-way drunken 360 Wrestlemania to Wii Sports). Rhythm and dance games. Fighting games. Dedicated controllers for everything that can be enhanced by them. High-end board games. Poker, both live and Internet. RTS, RPG and turn-based strategy on a weak or average PC that might also be a newish laptop (for easier LAN gaming as well as doing work). DS. Wii.

Super Mario Galaxy and Mario Kart will both be bigger hits with this crowd than an Alan Wake or Metal Gear Solid 4.

Marvin is confusing mature with adolescent. Mature gamers aren't concerned about their image, they are concerned with playing a good game no matter if it contains WWII axe murderers or Mario and Peach. Social interaction drives most good games.
post #78 of 165
I looked at this thread hoping to obtain some insights on whether my 8-year old will like his Christmas present, and guess what: I got zero insights.

I am glad you guys love/hate Wii so much, but, wow. What an "inside-baseball" conversation from...... (oh well)!
post #79 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I looked at this thread hoping to obtain some insights on whether my 8-year old will like his Christmas present, and guess what: I got zero insights.

I am glad you guys love/hate Wii so much, but, wow. What an "inside-baseball" conversation from...... (oh well)!

My son is 8 (going to be 9 in March) -- he wanted the Wii when it came out last year (mostly because he's a Mario fan and wanted to play Mario Galaxy). He liked the Wii a lot, but he liked his DS better... until Mario Galaxy came out just recently. Now it's a toss-up.

The Wii is definitely fun for the whole family, and I give it a two controllers up.
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post #80 of 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by mzaslove View Post

My son is 8 (going to be 9 in March) -- he wanted the Wii when it came out last year (mostly because he's a Mario fan and wanted to play Mario Galaxy). He liked the Wii a lot, but he liked his DS better... until Mario Galaxy came out just recently. Now it's a toss-up.

The Wii is definitely fun for the whole family, and I give it a two controllers up.

Thank you, sir! Good enough for me!
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