Originally Posted by TenoBell
Instead of sticking with the substance of what I say you attempt to come up with these obviously sensational over the top versions of what I've said. It doesn't really help your argument.
They're not over the top, they simply condense your arguments so I don't have to bloviate ad nauseum
rehashing them. Perhaps if you'd stick to one main avenue of spin instead of thrashing about wildly for any and all justifications, I wouldn't have to be brief.
A lot of people loved the Cube
Not enough, sadly. R.I.P.
it would have sold well had Apple repositioned it
And yet they didn't. Because repositioning the Cube would've meant repricing it, downwards, and Apple wouldn't have liked the lower margins. So they killed it. Still, you'd think they would've seen all that coming. Looks like Apple does not have a crystal ball, as I've said.
You posted numbers that had no correlation to the wider mobile phone sales or gave any evidence if those sales are profitable for Apple or its partners. Taking all of that into account is a sober realistic assessment.
Spinning wildly just because you don't like the Euro launch sales numbers is the very SOUL of not taking a sober realistic assessment, Teno.
I'm sorry if reality is not much to your liking, but that does not change it any.
Looking at sales numbers and comparing that to the unusually high sales that same product had in another market to justify calling it a failure is not a sober realistic assessment.
If that was all that I was doing, you might almost have a point. But it isn't. I also took into account Apple's OWN publicly-stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008. Sizing up the Euro (and US) numbers, they won't make that, unless one of three scenarios occur:1
- US numbers take off to even much higher levels than they are now. This is unlikely however, due to the fact that the economy is heading towards recession, with high gas prices and a credit crunch to boot. Additionally, ATT being the sole carrier limits the appeal, due to ATT not being good in many regions of the country, and potential iPhone buyers on other carriers being under contract.
So, on to scenario #2...2
- Euro numbers suddenly take off. This is unlikely as well, due to the fact that a mediocre launch does not set up a sudden sales spurt terribly well, plus Apple is not giving the Euros the product they really want (3G, MMS, etc). In addition, there are pricing issues. On to scenario #3...3
- The iPhone absolutely kills
in Asia. Could
happen, particularly since Apple will have a 3G iPhone for the Asian launch, but, as you've been told, the Asian market is the toughest in the world, with the most advanced competing phones and most demanding customers.
Hopefully, the iPhone's feature set will be able to compete there (i.e. has all the stuff the Asian market wants along with 3G), but given Apple's slightly arrogant moves of late, I do wonder.
So, what we end up is two unlikely scenarios, and one 'who knows' scenario, for Apple to make its goal. This is not particularly promising.
One further point to emphasize:
comparing that to the unusually high sales that [the iPhone] had in another market (the US)
Thing is, the US sales really AREN'T unusually high... rather, they are merely adequate, going by Apple's own goal. Roughly 1.1 million iPhones were sold in the US during Q3, which is a 4.4 million per year pace.
Nice, but as you yourself
stated, the US may well account for half of worldwide sales. If they do, that pace is not quite good enough for Apple to meet it's goal of selling 10 million iPhone per year. All the more reason for Apple to NOT have a weak showing in Europe and Asia, rather than leaning overmuch on the US to save them.
That is all purely hype and no substance. What the press says has no relation to how well Apple products are selling or how profitable they are. Seeing as Apple stock has continued to do well the street is paying this no attention.
Interesting that you should mention the stock price... seeing as much of the past year's run-up of Apple's stock is based on expectations and analyst predictions that Apple will not only meet its iPhone sales goals, but beat them by a wide margin.
Which makes the lackluster Euro launch all the more scary for Apple, and Apple stockholders like me.
We don't have enough evidence to say how well the phone is doing.
We have enough evidence to say that the European launch did not go well, and in contrast we have your 'wish upon a star' spin that somehow the numbers will be better AFTER the launch, which goes against all logic.
After all, US sales numbers did not suddenly accelerate
after the launch, rather they did exactly what you'd expect them to, which was to drop very significantly.
You didn't really expect Apple to hold that 90k-iPhones-sold-per-day US launch pace, now did you?
Apple would've sold 8 million
(!) iPhones in Q3 at that pace, but they didn't, they sold 1.1 million instead, or about one-seventh
of their launch pace.
So tell me again how Euro sales are going to automagically increase and trump their launch pace?