Report downplays concerns over lack of 3G iPhone - Page 4

Yup. Better to have the choice than not though.




Yup. Add a tiny number of new phones into a tiny market (America is about 10% of smartphone use) and you'll double your usage figures. Sounds impressive but it's not. It just shows how crap WinMo is.

The keyboard is usable in vertical mode, which is how you have to use it most of the time, which is what matters. And I must agree with Vinea here, people are making more mistakes with it than with a keyboard with actual buttons.

The screen is great, but other than the fact that it is rectangular, my Treo 700p screen is just as good. The rez is 320 x 320.

There are no approved third party apps available for the iPhone as yet.


Like people here to whom I've spoken who have the iPhone, they're unhappy with the speed, but they use it anyway, because Safari does give them advantages. But not enough of an advantage for those of us who don't have the interest in waiting for it.

We are saying exactly the same thing. I believe I read O2 UK has 1.8 million subscribers. This is saying roughly 140,000 subscribers that happen to have the same phone use far more data than 1.76 million users with various phones and different plans.


When I last looked unlimited data was 7 pounds. You get a free phone, you pay a lower tariff, you're a sophisticated advanced European with 3G, why not pay the additional 7 pounds? I feel some back tracking as the story before was that Europeans demand 3G. If you don't use a data plan their is little need for 3G.


2% of 1.8 million is 360,000. So yes in raw numbers their are more 3G phones accessing data than only the iPhone by itself. But the study wasn't looking at raw numbers it was looking at percentages, 60% of all iPhone vs 2% of every other phone on the network.

The article did specifically note more data is downloaded on the iPhone than Nokia N95.
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I would imagine they were activation projections. As that is where O2 primarily makes its profit and cares most about. 1 million over 2 months is not a particularly big number.


Seeing as iPhone users get free Cloud I'm sure their is frequent use where it exists. The Cloud can record the number of iPhones that use its networks.

What do you mean without context? The context is that of O2 subscribers 2% of those without iPhones use the same amount of data as 60% of those with iPhones.

Not tiny at all. The US has the worlds 3rd largest population and the worlds top GDP at over 13 trillion. Which nearly equals the GDP of the entire European Union combined. At the end of the quarter Apple will have sold millions of iPhones here.

If that is what it means for Windows Mobile what does it mean for Nokia barely registers in US sales.


Its a challenge and takes time to learn but its easier than typing 4-3-5-5-6 to say hello.


February is nearly here.

They're not over the top, they simply condense your arguments so I don't have to bloviate ad nauseum rehashing them. Perhaps if you'd stick to one main avenue of spin instead of thrashing about wildly for any and all justifications, I wouldn't have to be brief.



Not enough, sadly. R.I.P.



And yet they didn't. Because repositioning the Cube would've meant repricing it, downwards, and Apple wouldn't have liked the lower margins. So they killed it. Still, you'd think they would've seen all that coming. Looks like Apple does not have a crystal ball, as I've said.



Spinning wildly just because you don't like the Euro launch sales numbers is the very SOUL of not taking a sober realistic assessment, Teno.

I'm sorry if reality is not much to your liking, but that does not change it any.



If that was all that I was doing, you might almost have a point. But it isn't. I also took into account Apple's OWN publicly-stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008. Sizing up the Euro (and US) numbers, they won't make that, unless one of three scenarios occur:

1- US numbers take off to even much higher levels than they are now. This is unlikely however, due to the fact that the economy is heading towards recession, with high gas prices and a credit crunch to boot. Additionally, ATT being the sole carrier limits the appeal, due to ATT not being good in many regions of the country, and potential iPhone buyers on other carriers being under contract.

So, on to scenario #2...

2- Euro numbers suddenly take off. This is unlikely as well, due to the fact that a mediocre launch does not set up a sudden sales spurt terribly well, plus Apple is not giving the Euros the product they really want (3G, MMS, etc). In addition, there are pricing issues. On to scenario #3...

3- The iPhone absolutely kills in Asia. Could happen, particularly since Apple will have a 3G iPhone for the Asian launch, but, as you've been told, the Asian market is the toughest in the world, with the most advanced competing phones and most demanding customers.

Hopefully, the iPhone's feature set will be able to compete there (i.e. has all the stuff the Asian market wants along with 3G), but given Apple's slightly arrogant moves of late, I do wonder.

So, what we end up is two unlikely scenarios, and one 'who knows' scenario, for Apple to make its goal. This is not particularly promising.

One further point to emphasize:


Thing is, the US sales really AREN'T unusually high... rather, they are merely adequate, going by Apple's own goal. Roughly 1.1 million iPhones were sold in the US during Q3, which is a 4.4 million per year pace.

Nice, but as you yourself stated, the US may well account for half of worldwide sales. If they do, that pace is not quite good enough for Apple to meet it's goal of selling 10 million iPhone per year. All the more reason for Apple to NOT have a weak showing in Europe and Asia, rather than leaning overmuch on the US to save them. \



Interesting that you should mention the stock price... seeing as much of the past year's run-up of Apple's stock is based on expectations and analyst predictions that Apple will not only meet its iPhone sales goals, but beat them by a wide margin.

Which makes the lackluster Euro launch all the more scary for Apple, and Apple stockholders like me.



We have enough evidence to say that the European launch did not go well, and in contrast we have your 'wish upon a star' spin that somehow the numbers will be better AFTER the launch, which goes against all logic.

After all, US sales numbers did not suddenly accelerate after the launch, rather they did exactly what you'd expect them to, which was to drop very significantly.

You didn't really expect Apple to hold that 90k-iPhones-sold-per-day US launch pace, now did you? Apple would've sold 8 million (!) iPhones in Q3 at that pace, but they didn't, they sold 1.1 million instead, or about one-seventh of their launch pace.

So tell me again how Euro sales are going to automagically increase and trump their launch pace?

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Oh, Teno, that's funny.

You try to counter Euro iPhone launch sales with "expectations" about what the iPhone "should" sell from the CEO of O2 itself?? Gee, that's not a biased source or anything. Not that it really matters, since he's very likely just making some brave noises (i.e. spinning).

He's the second-to-last person on the planet (after Jobs) to ever say, "Yeah, the Euro iPhone launch kinda screwed the pooch." Why don't we ask the CEO of ATT for some negative quotes while we're at it?

Or better yet, let's have a look at how things have been going just recently on the O2 Predictions vs Reality scorecard:


UK iPhone sales a quarter of what O2 predicted

Apple and O2 have been taking hits recently for poor sales performance of the iPhone in the UK, with would-be users complaining that the price is too high and those who have taken the plunge having problems with coverage. Nevertheless, O2 have been calling it the “fastest selling device [we’ve] ever seen” and the company estimated 100,000 handsets would be activated in the first fortnight of availability. Sources close to AppleInsider, however, cast a different light, claiming that the flagship Regent Street Apple store was still working from stock delivered prior to the 9th November launch.

New estimates peg the actual number of handsets activated at just 26,500, a quarter of what O2 predicted, with the Regent Street store selling less than 100 iPhones per day and making a relatively small dent in the several thousand-strong shipment they received.

While it’s dangerous to place too much stock in an unnamed source, the news joins a large body of existing criticism and reticence of the UK iPhone and points to a device that is suffering disappointing sales.

It’s looking more and more likely that warnings prior to UK availability - that the user-base is significantly different to that in the US, and would be unwilling to pay a high price for a device that, on paper at least, lacks many features British users take for granted - should have been heeded when O2 and Apple made their sales predictions.

http://www.myitablet.com/uk-iphone-s...ted-271784.php


Scorecard Thus Far:

Reality: 1
O2: 0


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In the context of the iPhone, that's a fairly silly statement. \

What is the iPhone, after all? It's a phone, an iPod, and a breakthrough Internet device... to use Jobs' very own words. But break that down some:

Phone- There's nothing super-special about the 'phone' part of the iPhone. Its a bit easier to set up a conference call and call up contacts while talking... that's mostly it.

iPod- Nice, but many people who want an iPod already have one, and those who don't can get one if they change their minds.

Breakthrough Internet device- THIS is 'teh sexay' part of the iPhone. Other smartphones have browsers, but the functionality and ease-of-use gap between Safari and the other phones' various 'minibrowsers' and assorted other kludges is pretty huge.

So if the big deal of the iPhone is its Internet capabilities, how important then is having 3G vs EDGE, or, as is the case in much of Europe, 3G vs GPRS/dial-up speed networking?

It's pretty huge, obviously.

Your other statements regarding data usage of iPhone users vs non-iPhone users actually underscores this. Even under klunky GPRS and EDGE, iPhone users are using much more data per capita than non-iPhone users (though not as much as you imply, since, as Aegis pointed out, you spun the numbers).

This is largely because the iPhone Internet user experience is better. So imagine how much MORE data iPhone customers would use if the Internet user experience was an order of magnitude better still, i.e. they had good data speeds (3G) instead of crappy slow ones?

It's largely about (internet) user experience: Other phones < iPhone < 3G iPhone.

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I think we're all getting a bit queasy from Teno's endless spin.



Good point.



Exactly.

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Yep. Windows Mobile has been around for several years, yet has only 6% of the worldwide smartphone market and only 0.6% of the overall market. The US is about the only place WM does even close to well.

Comparing yourself to Windows Mobile is like saying you're the tallest pygmy... the bar is set quite low.

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Nokia barely registers in US sales, but that' about the only market where Nokia does badly, for various reasons (the US loves CDMA but Nokia loves GSM, the US loves flip phones while Nokia prefers to make bar phones, etc). However, outside the US, they do well. Thus Nokia is #1 in the world at present, with something like 40 percent worldwide marketshare, despite poor US sales.



I would disagree. If you're used to predictive texting, it's actually faster, especially counting the many mistakes you'll be making on the iPhone's tiny portrait virtual keyboard. \

With the landscape keyboard I'd call it a slight edge to the iPhone, but Apple sadly doesn't let you use that keyboard except in the Safari app.

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You seem to have your decimal place in the wrong place. 18 million subscribers would be more correct.

I'll not rehash the same old arguments.

Still, even with practice, more errors are made.


But, its not here yet. We aren't talking about later in 2008, when, hopefully, a proper SDK will be allowing a wide range of programs. But, we don't know what Apple is intending with this. That question has been discussed here.

At any rate, we're talking about what's available now. What may be available in the future isn't relevant to this discussion, because, as you know, even Apple understands that the lack of 3G is unacceptable, long term, and that they claim to be waiting for the electronics they need to make it possible.

When Apple gets its act together, and completes this product as it should have been, and that also includes fixing the software to have it function properly, including editing, horizontal keyboard across ALL uses, grouped deletes from mail, etc., the phone will become even more desireable, and the sales will climb much higher than they are now.

No one can dispute that.

Absolutely true. Even I and my immediate family are evidence of that.

My brother is waiting for a 3G iPhone before he'll buy. I'm waiting for a 3G iPhone and for ATT not to be the exclusive carrier.

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People would be better off getting an iPod Touch, and a real, cheaper phone to go along with that.

The iPod Touch/iPhone is a sexy piece of kit (I bought an iPod Touch 16 GB for my mom for x-mas), but that is basically just an iPod with Safari - beyond that, it's empty and lacks substance (needs 3rd party apps in the worst way). And dealing with iTunes to sync photos is just asinine - dragging and dropping from Explorer or Finder would be so much better, but that's going OT.

My Nokia is a better phone than the iPhone, phone, EDGE is brutal, and if I was going to spend $400 on a phone, it will be unlocked, and I will simply transfer my SIM over.

And I hate ATT to boot, and almost all of the US carriers as well - such a nickel and dime-ing operation.

Or they could do it the way a Sony Ericsson W580i works with a Mac. You plug the phone in via USB and iPhoto starts up and you can transfer photos that way.

Or is that too logical for Apple ???

Right, thanks.


Yes the CEO himself. He certainly does not want make inflated predictions that don't come true. If he set expectations at a level that are not met he would risk the confidence in O2's stock and the confidence of O2's board of directors in him.


Is that conjecture or from your many hours of iPhone keyboard use?


Of course it isn't. Because all of this complaining would be for nothing if we acknowledged there will be a solution.


I'm not disputing the possibility of this. What I am disputing is that unless you went into a parallel universe where the iPhone that you prefer exists and could see that it did sell better than the version in our universe. The fact that we are trapped in our current reality there is no way to know that for sure.

The iPhone currently being Apple's most hyped Christmas gadget WallStreet doesn't seem to find fault with the Euro sales numbers as Apples stock only continues to climb.

You are essentially basing this on the first week of sales which really gives us little useful information. We don't yet know how many iPhones Apple will have sold this quarter. Ultimately that will give us a better picture of how it all is going.

No, wiseguy. It's from the report that Vinea supplied, which was a test between the iPhone keyboard, an alphanumeric model with buttons, and a standard numeric keyboard with multi press.

I read it, did you?

I found it, here:

http://www.usercentric.com/iPhone/iPhone3_Nov07.pdf



It's not complaining. it's correcting your incorrect assumptions.


Since you like to make assumptions, you may as well make this one as well. An iPhone with 3G will sell better than one without, as long as Apple doesn't decide to gauge us for the privilege.


They're looking long term, they also know that jobs said the phone would have 3G this year.


We don't, though you don't seem to mind giving us numbers of your own making.

Teno... what part of this did you miss?:


UK iPhone sales a quarter of what O2 predicted

Apple and O2 have been taking hits recently for poor sales performance of the iPhone in the UK, with would-be users complaining that the price is too high and those who have taken the plunge having problems with coverage. Nevertheless, O2 have been calling it the “fastest selling device [we’ve] ever seen” and the company estimated 100,000 handsets would be activated in the first fortnight of availability. Sources close to AppleInsider, however, cast a different light, claiming that the flagship Regent Street Apple store was still working from stock delivered prior to the 9th November launch.

New estimates peg the actual number of handsets activated at just 26,500, a quarter of what O2 predicted, with the Regent Street store selling less than 100 iPhones per day and making a relatively small dent in the several thousand-strong shipment they received.

While it’s dangerous to place too much stock in an unnamed source, the news joins a large body of existing criticism and reticence of the UK iPhone and points to a device that is suffering disappointing sales.

It’s looking more and more likely that warnings prior to UK availability - that the user-base is significantly different to that in the US, and would be unwilling to pay a high price for a device that, on paper at least, lacks many features British users take for granted - should have been heeded when O2 and Apple made their sales predictions.

http://www.myitablet.com/uk-iphone-s...ted-271784.php



Scorecard Thus Far:

Reality: 1
O2: 0


Their track record... not good. Obviously.

Tell me Teno, when reality goes against what you're saying, is it your usual custom to stick your fingers in your ears and yell, "LALALALALALA!!!". Because that's what you've been doing here. Makes it difficult to take you seriously.



Meaningless, considering the stock would almost certainly be higher still if Apple had a 3G iPhone out. Also a bit of a house of cards, taking into account that much of stock's rise is based on expectations and analyst predictions of Apple beating its iPhone sales goals by a wide margins, something that's starting to look quite dicey what with the lackluster Euro launch.

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OK I hadn't seen that. Good to know.


What assumptions am I making. I'm the guy saying lets wait and see what unfolds.


Which is a rational way to look at it. And is the same as what I'm saying.


What's the harm in making a guess?


That blog is from November 27th and is based on information from some unknown source. You compare that to projections from O2 CEO printed in the Financial Times?

Hmmm which is more credible an unknown source in an anonymous blog posted a month ago. Or a quote from the CEO in the most influential financial paper in England from last week. That's a tough one.

I'm referring to your million number.


I'm happy you see it that way.


No harm at all, but you were criticizing me for using numbers of an estimate that were published by someone who, since it's his business, presumably has some idea of what he's talking about.

Those numbers of yours were just, as you say, a guess.


It wasn't an unknown source.

Company execs get over excited, let us say. I seem to remember that the CEO's and Chairmen from both MCI and Enron were claiming that their companies were doing fine and dandy just before they went under.

They were also quoted in the top financial papers.


See my answer above.

The 26,500 figure is from The Register, re-posted without attribution in that blog.

The CEO's numbers in the FT were the same from before the launch.

They're both about as believable as each other IMHO and both not very impressive.

Its not an assumption, its just a guess.


The blog says its an unnamed source which makes it unknown to us. Should make any reasonable person skeptical of the claims.


Those are the two absolute worse case scenarios of deliberately lying and covering up illegal activity that could only have ended in dooming the company. Those examples are extremely unusual and are not at all common practice.

As far as we can tell there is a world of difference with O2 and CEO Key from those wildly extreme examples. Its unlikely he is stepping in as a new CEO to begin lying and putting O2 stock in jeopardy.


Ok they are unimpressive. But unimpressive against what? Against its competitors sales? Or is it not making Apple or its partners a profit?

Yah, except for the fact that the Register isn't the only source saying the Euro launch numbers are lackluster. It's pretty obvious that the launch numbers missed O2's stated expectations. \

And, of course, the CEO of O2 has all the incentive in the world to do what Teno's been doing... spin, spin, and more spin. He's not gonna say, "The iPhone had a disappointing launch, we're having a hard time moving 'em, come on in and pick one up today!".

Might as well ask the fox if he's been in the henhouse today.

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If you honestly believe that corporate lying and intense spin is "extremely unusual", then you are terribly naive. \



Unimpressive against both US sales and Apple meeting its own publicly-stated goal of selling 10 million phones. Unimpressive against O2's publicly stated goal as well.

But you've been told all this, many times before, and yet you continue to play dumb and ignore things you don't like. It is unfortunate, and it has pretty much destroyed your credibility on this one.

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Unimpressive against it's competitors.

eg. LG Viewty sells 310K in 5 weeks in Europe

I cannot account for the amount of general lying they may do. But no its not usual for them to attempt to hide extreme losses in sales to the point the business is imploding to keep their stock from falling. Eventually the truth will come to light and people will go to jail. The far majority of the time companies report their losses and their stock price falls. Its more common for companies to report extreme losses go bankrupt and possibly out of business.


This phone may very well be outselling the iPhone. The only problem is right now we don't know European iPhone sales from its first 5 weeks.

No we don't and do you know why...

It's because Apple blocks iPhone Sales data.

One wonders why.

Apple has guarded iPhone sales in the US also. This is consistent with Apple culture they generally don't release sales numbers for any of their products until the end of the quarter.

Hey Teno, better hurry and update your resume... I hear a new position just opened up at Apple Europe: 'iPhone Sales Apologist'. The dental plan's simply awesome.

Seriously Teno, why go on an on? No one's been buying what you're selling. We know the Euro launch numbers AREN'T good. You honestly think that sets them up for good Q4 numbers in Europe? That's unintentionally hilarious.

I'll help you out here though... what will happen is that the Q4 numbers will come out, and they'll be okay in some places, awful in others, and mediocre overall. At which point the O2 gentleman of dubious credibility and his equivalents in other nations, and Apple, will 'spin' those numbers into some sort of 'grand success'... even though behind closed doors they'll be disappointed and upset. \

Anything to protect the Apple stock price right now, eh? I'm benefiting from it, but that doesn't mean I don't prefer reality in principle.


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An assumption is a guess. You're assuming that number will come about. Yes, you could also say that you are guessing that that number will come about. It's the same thing. Not worth quibbling about.


I believe I read something different.


The point is simply that just because a CEO says something doesn't mean we should believe it. Often they will say something in the hope of raising the hype another notch, encouraging more to buy the product. Sometimes it works.

Don't forget how many times Jobs has said something, only to reverse himself later.

'Year of the Laptop', '3Ghz by next Summer' and the whole PowerPC v Intel power per watt smokescreen to name three.

Wait a minute....

...perhaps Teno is SJ in disguise?

Video on small portable devices isn't useful, we won't compete with Windows machines with an inexpensive box (ok,sorta), etc.

But, I can't blame him for the 3 GHz problems the entire chip industry got itself into at the 90 nm level. I'm sure IBM stated positively that they would do it.

If they turn out to be poor, then that is what it is. I'm saying we haven't heard any real sales numbers since the first week. I think you three don't want sales to be good more than you sincerely believe they aren't good.


Assumption: a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof

Guess: estimate or suppose (something) without sufficient information to be sure of being correct

I did not say I knew for certain what Euro sales are going to be, I estimated what I thought without sufficient information but I am not sure it is correct.


While it’s dangerous to place too much stock in an unnamed source, the news joins a large body of existing criticism and reticence of the UK iPhone and points to a device that is suffering disappointing sales.


Of course its only good business to try and make the situation sound a good as possible. But this is entirely different from Enron or MCI Worldcom.

But we don't know if CEO Key is jooking the stats or not. As Gartner said he may be underestimating as well.


Its obvious he says stuff like that to deflect attention and add to the theatrics of his product launches. Which is mostly harmless manipulation of the media. And is very different from saying we are going to sell 200,000 this quarter and sell far less than that. That can get your stock killed.

Not true at all. I would love the sales to be much better. I'm a stockholder remember. I don't want to cut my own throat.


Ah, you're assuming your guess is true, which is why you made it.

An assumption is only accepted to be true if others than yourself agree that it is so, which we are not.


Then why even bother?


Is this your statement? If so, it agrees with what we've been saying all along. If not, what was its purpose for inclusion?


Teno, it was being used as an example of why someone in that position isn't necessarily to be believed. I'm not saying that it rises to the same level of deception. Just was a counterweight to your assertion that the CEO of O2 gave those numbers, so therefore they must be correct.


We know nothing about what he was saying, which was the point I was making. Move on.


He also does it to confuse his competitors, which is actually the main reason. But he confuses his customers too, as well as the stockholders, and other investors.

Speaking just for myself, I want the sales to be very poor in Europe. I want them to be excruciatingly poor.

IMHO the iPhone is priced way too highly and lacking in functionality that we take for granted, especially in a high end phone. As has been pointed out many times in these discussions by you capitalist pig-dog Americans, if what I believe is true, "the market" will say so. I can't think of a better way to send a message to Apple that they got it wrong in Europe, now do something about it Apple.

It's Tough Love.

ps. sorry about your shares Mel.

Er, you guys are pretty capitalist over there as well, it's one reason why you haven't gone over to the Euro yet, or want to follow too many EU rules.

So far, I can't complain about my shares.

A lot depends on what happens at Macworld.

I can't say that the phone is priced too highly though. that depends on how much it costs to build, which seems to be about half the price, which is about right.

Didn't you just read the definition of a guess? Its when you make an estimate without sufficient information but you are not completely certain of your estimate because you made it without sufficient information.


That's a quote from the blog that said this information was based on a unnamed source. You said you read something different. I was showing you what it said.


An extreme counterweight to say the least. I doubt he would make that forecast if he really didn't believe they could be achieved.


Well they've sold over 20 million of them each of the past two Christmas quarters. So the customers, stockholders, and investors should be happy.

I'm pretty well versed in the English language. I know what both an assumption, and a guess is. I also know that they can be interchanged. Don't use the Wiki for a definition, it stinks.

Remember the admonition:

When you assume, you make an ASS out of U and ME.

There's a reason why that admonition has been round for so long. Your teachers also no doubt would say "Never assume."

An assumption is no better than a guess.

When someone says "I assume you mean...", what they are saying is "I'm guessing you mean...".

More often than not, the other person will reply "No, I don't mean that."

When you "guessed" that sales would be one million, you "assumed" that your guess would be correct.

That's what it means.



Fine. I had read others that seem to agree with Those numbers.


And that's good. It shows what extremes CEO's will go to. It shows that a lessor statement that is possibly inaccurate is even more likely.


Well, yeah, we're ASSUMING that sales will be over 20 million this quarter.

I know. That was said tongue-in-cheek somewhat. Personally I find it hard to believe that Apple is in any way entirely market driven. Jobs is a salesman but he's also a bit of an old hippy and a design nut too and Apple's products whilst having to be profitable are rarely just there for market reasons.


US pricing seems to be about right but not Europe. Apple needs a kick up the arse and we're wearing the boots.

That's true. He produces what he wants almost as much as what he thinks the public is ready for.


I was thinking in terms of the US pricing. I forgot that the price in Europe seem to be much higher, though I'm not sure why. It's 399 in Euro's, or Pounds?