It's too bad that your knowledge of risk analysis and probability theory doesn't mean a thing in this scenario. Furthermore, it's surprising you were unable to see these points yourself without a conservative's assistance.
Try telling that to decision makers! Please elaborate AND
be specific, don't do your dodgy dance of deliberate deception. Oh, and could you please stop talking in circles, you're making me dizzy!
The existence of the WMD's could not be confirmed nor denied with 100% certainty.
Meaningless statement, we can apply that statement to nearly any situation (e. g. plane, trains, or automobiles and accidents thereof, 0 < p < 1) D'oh!
The Israelis have alleged nuclear weapons and medium range missiles for just this reason, to prevent existential threats from their Arab/Muslim neighbors.
Now you've taken the bait, hook, line, and stinker!
How do you know this to be a true statement (sans alleged
), you know p = 1? Now I could speculate or conjecture on this, but I won't for obvious reasons because that's YOUR
What do we know about this? Only that Israel hasn't detonated a nuclear device within their borders. Beyond that, I've a fairly good idea of who may of helped Israel obtain nuclear WMD's if in fact they possess nuclear WMD's.
If Saddam had launched the WMD's, Israeli retaliation would be useless in preventing the total annihilation of Israel.
The above statement is a complete lie and I can easily prove it to be a total lie!
It's simple math, do you're homework before you suggest such a lie!
\ But here's some hint's to get you started on you're first homework assignment; Israeli's geographic area, kill radius of chemical WMD's, number of ballistic missiles (of sufficient range) needed by Iraq to 100% wipe out Israel, the number is larger then the world's total stockpiles of nuclear WMD's, and this arsenal would have to be staged (in plain sight) for a simultaneous coordinated attack!
If Israel was going to save it's own life they HAD to act first.
Past tense? Israel is a single living entity?
But if they acted first it could have set off a chain reaction which could not have been predicted nor controlled and possibly could have resulted in global nuclear Holy War.
Flawed premise, conjecture, speculation, ..., (repeated many times), ... , flawed premise, conjecture, speculation = NEVERLAND!
You can't deny the truth of it and you needed me to point it out to you.
Now you're repeating yourself, or maybe you're talking to yourself, perhaps you have some memory issues? My advice would be to see a doctor ASAP, the kind that has a DSM-IV
on their bookshelf!
You need to study some more.
That's a rhetorical statement, it's known as a truism