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AppleInsider Prediction Stock Exchange

post #1 of 2
Thread Starter 
I realize that this would be HUGe undertaking, but it would be a lot of fun, I think:

An "AppleInsider Prediction Stock Exchange" where users can officially make predictions. Predictions are close, a users virtual "stock" goes up. Predictions are wrong, their stock goes down. Just a fun way to keep track of people's predictions and their accuracy over time.

Most of the predictions would be Apple related (duh!) -- Examples:
  • When will there be a storage increase for the iPhone?
  • What new products will be released at Macworld 2008? WWDC?
  • Will Apple introduce Blu-Ray hardware at Macworld?
  • When will iPhone get 3G?
  • Will there be two iPhone updates this year (major and minor) or just one major one?
  • What's next for iWork? iLife?
  • When will the new Cinema Displays come out?
  • Will the Cinema Displays have built in iSight?
  • When does the MacBook Pro get a makeover?
  • When will Aperture 2.0 come out?
  • When will iTunes 8.0 come out?
  • Will iTunes 9.0 come out a month later?
  • What will movie rentals cost on iTunes?
  • What is the name of OS X 10.6?
  • What will the Mac market share be in 2008? 2009? 2010?
  • How much will Apple stock be worth in July 2008? December 2008?
  • When does Steve Jobs declare himself President of the Universe?

But a few non-Apple stuff could be thrown in for kicks:
  • Which one wins: Blu-Ray, HD-DVD, or both?
  • When does Microsoft realize the Zune sucks?
  • When does the writer's strike end?
  • Who will win the nomination for the Democrats? the Republicans?
  • Who will be the next president elect of the United States of America?

The closer someone gets, the more points they earn. The more people that predict accurately, the more the points are distributed amongst those people, and therefore the less points each person gets. That way if it's pretty much a lock that Apple will release something on a date, people's virtual stocks are not really affected that much. Generally people would be required to pick a specific day (i.e. June 12) just to get a wider diversity in predictions that have to do with dates. "MWSF" and "WWDC" could be possible prediction dates for the purpose of predicting as the exact dates aren't necessarily known at that time. Users could be able to update their predictions, but the older the prediction, the more valuable when it comes true. So when John Doe makes a prediction the night before Macworld Keynote that there will be new Mac Pros, based on many reports about new Mac Pros, he barely gets anything. Jane Jones who predicted Mac Pros at Macworld 2008 way back in February 2007 would get a lot more points.
post #2 of 2
Thread Starter 
I didn't actually base my idea off of this, but I saw this today and it seemed very similar (except with politics):

http://politicalmarket.cnn.com/
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