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First month French iPhone sales fall shy of target - Page 4

post #121 of 137
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Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

If you've been listening to our Euro friends, there doesn't seem to be any 'perhaps' about it.

As already been discussed, Apple's intentions are different from what we or others want. What exactly they are, we don't exactly know other than 10 million units. Will the current pricing structure in Europe help them get to 10m units in 2008? Perhaps. They also have a lot of markets to go.

I'm talking from the perspective of Apple's market positioning of the device. If they want to maintain the device there has to be a major upgrade at least once every year, if not 8 months. If they don't change the device, and want to maintain certain sales rates, then price will have to be reduced. Or, as mentioned, the device upgraded. For the markets they have yet to enter, the current iPhone will have to be decreased just due to the passage of time (though they don't really do this much) and the continuing evolution of tech devices.

It'll happen. Right now? Probably not. 2 months from now? Perhaps.

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Why? Because they made an iPOD Nano? Please. Two different markets, two different devices. Is an iMac Nano a sure thing then? Nothing is guaranteed.

Apple just doesn't appear to be into making many different models of the iPhone... for example, we won't be getting a 3G iPhone until the Asian launch, i.e. when it becomes absolutely necessary.

In a way yes. It could very well be that Apple doesn't intend on entering the mid-range phone market (~$200) and will stick to a fairly high cost, and necessarilly, high end device. But like the iPod nano, and iPhone nano will greatly increase the market in which Apple can sell iPhones into purely due to cost drivers, both in phone and carrier costs.

They are many many good reasons to do this. If they don't, then Apple isn't planning on much for the cell phone market. Merely, a niche product. I don't think Apple is intending to do this; hence, I think an iPhone "nano" will hit the market.

As for why we don't know what Apple is planning in regards to "Apple just doesn't appear to be into making many different models of the iPhone," you're asking for too much. Apple never talks about future products and keeps all future product information so secret that it has a coterie industry of Apple rumorology or kremlinology or whatever.

As for why Apple is only shipping one iPhone model today, as opposed to an EDGE model, an UMTS/HSPA model, an EVDO model, a cheaper model, well, I can only speculate that since this is their first foray into the cell phone business, and they want to keep their supplier contracts, manufacturing, inventory, software, QA, and marketing to a minimum. In January 2009, we will see if they will have more then one model, and I think they will.

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I'd say more like slightly under 2m in Q4, with the lion's share of sales coming from the US, of course.

With the iPhone only in the UK & Germany for 2 months and France for 1 month, yeah, ~%80 of Q4 07 iPhone sales will be from the USA.

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It's not really a luxury item. It may seem like that compared to cheap flip phones, but when you compare it to its true competition, smartphones from the likes of RIM, Nokia, Palm, etc., it's retail price is actually quite mainstream.

The problem is that Apple and ATT don't subsidize the price to the customer, while other phone makers do. Even then though, the iPhone isn't priced particularly out of line with many other smartphones, at least in the US.

From AT&T:
Code:


$ 99 RIM Blackberry Curve/8300/8700
$149 RIM Blackberry Pearl
$299 RIM Blackberry 8800
$199 Moto Q9g
$ 99 Samsung Blackjack II
$149 Palm Treo 680
$199 Palm Treo 750
$299 HTC Kaiser / ATT Tilt



Voice and data plans certainly vary. And the iPhone service plan is certainly a good deal. However, at $399, it's a pretty big sticker shock. That upfront cost is certainly huge in my mind, as compared to $199 (say the Q9) with the leftover money paying for 3 months of service. The iPhone is the most expensive phone on AT&T's list!

As for Nokia, they don't appear to like dealing with American carriers short of el cheapo phones, and all of the high end phones are European imports or US band capable but late to market, and are sold unlocked at $400 to $800. If a theory of having a lot of features packed in a cell phone device sold unlocked will sell millions is true, one wonders why Nokia essentially has very small marketshare in the USA.

Dollars to donuts, if AT&T offers the US 3G N95-8GB for a subsidized price of $299 with 2 year contract, it'll sell a whole lot more just because of it being in AT&T stores, it being at half the unlocked price, and it having much lower sticker shock.

If you look at the situation in Europe, where N95's, Viewtys, Pradas, W960s, P1s, etc, are subsidized to near free, (also sold unlocked), one wonders why the iPhone even sold at all. If Apple sells 300k iPhones compared to LG's 300k Viewtys, which is the more impressive achievement? Then I'd ask, what are Apple's intentions with the iPhone? What is in their strategic interests? There are lots of reasons for not going full bore into certain markets.

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A storage increase would be nice, but is a minor hardware revision, really, and wouldn't address the larger hardware-related issues (3G, true GPS). ... Pretty much what I already said... 3G iPhone in mid-to-late '08, for the Asian launch.

Major revisions, minor revisions, software revisions. I said both and all. And all serve to maintain the iPhone's marketibility and sales.

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I'm not sold on churn as being an indicator of good service. It's more a byproduct of a level playing field of equally bad or good players.

That really doesn't make any sense.

If all companies are equally good in terms of service (and most other things), or near equally good with some geographic and temporal variations, the churn rate could be just as high as it is now with companies that are at best mediocre.

Edit: Expounding a bit. I would imagine that there are two driving factors in churn rate: loyalty and competition. A level playing field where companies are equally would increase churn rates because there isn't a discernable winner in the market. If the carrier company is good, it'll breed loyalty and decrease churn rates. I'm not sure how those two factors would interplay in a field where all companies are good, without much variation between each other in terms of customer satisfaction. There's always going to be better deal at one point in time favoring one company over the other. In reality, I don't think parity can last very long in an open market anyways. In the end, there will one alpha company.

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Satisfaction rates overall are mediocre, but that does not mean that all carriers are the same. For example, we see people leaving Sprint at double the percentage rate that they are leaving Verizon, nationally. If Sprint and Verizon were equally mediocre, on average, you'd expect those rates to be much closer.

The only counter-argument I've ever heard to the above fact is that Verizon's marketing is somehow far superior to Sprint's, and it may be, but I find it humorous that anyone would think that ads alone could convince most ppl to stay with a service that does not work for them.

True. It could also be true that Sprint is seen as a dying company due to a mistaken merger with Nextel and are suffering the consequences (perception turns into reality). I can't believe there are that many differences. Everytime I visit a carrier store, it's like a visit to Hell, er, I mean the DMV. Overall, my comment was more towards a bigger pictures. Regional, city, store differences are balanced out across the USA. Success is then about management strategy, marketing campaigns, and chaotic movements in the consuming populace.

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The problem with anecdotal evidence is that it only describes the experience of that one person, not the market as a whole.

True, but the perception is reinforced by market surveys saying wireless carriers suck, er, aren't great, one of the keys to business is reducing churn rates with the figure seen in a negative light, and a general consumer wish to blow up the current US wireless carrier business. In the grand scheme of things, the carriers aren't that far apart. Even the quality of reception varies from phone to phone, even among the same type of phones, customer service store to store and call to call.

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It is a 'happy choice' in the short term, while Apple's trying to get the iPhone off the ground. But in the medium- or long-term, going single carrier holds iPhone sales back. ... Anyways, in the short-term its a good trade-off, in the longer term, its definitely not.

And we know even less about Apple's long term plans. I take short term to mean 2008. Anyways, be mindful about what Apple wants (and what they consider good business) is different from what you think.

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Really? I figure by price alone it's in a niche. In the USA, it's 400 dollars. In the UK it's 270 pounds.

Honestly, in the US its not that expensive at all for a smartphone. The UK is different though, with fiercer competition.

You have to be kidding me. In the T-Mobile UK website, I can get a Nokia N95 free with an 18month contract at $90/month or a SE W880 free with an 18 month contract at $30/month. Apple is certainly positioning the iPhone a little bit differently than the other phone manufacturers are, and considering the upfront cost, I think they want a niche, not a mass market.

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I really, really doubt it.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple will continue with its exclusive carrier strategy for the foreseeable future.
post #122 of 137
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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

For many consumers price is a bigger concern than coverage and 3G.

For some people, it is. For many, it is not. This is part of why the low-cost carriers (T-Mobile, Sprint) have lower customer adds than higher-cost carriers (VZW, ATT).

Another thing that you may not be fully grasping is that, while a lower price can get customers in the door, they can't keep them there. T-Mobile and Sprint both have much higher churn than VZW, and significantly higher churn than ATT. Ever stop to think that the low cost carriers are lower cost because they have to be? \


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That's my point I cannot find these huge ATT acquisitions you speak of. What I find is that both have made key acquisitions that have added customers and bandwidth.

Keep working on it. Wikipedia is a nice resource. What you'll find is that the sum total of ATT's acquisitions since Verizon's formation is far larger than than VZW's acquisitions.

And... wow... Cingular's buying of ATT Wireless isn't a huge acquisition, and you can't find any information on that?? That was $41 billion and 21 million customers.


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Orange France hitting 100,000 sales in the second week of January 08 instead of the last week of December 07. This is your rational that iPhone sales are slow?

Their goal was to sell slightly under 100,000, what they actually got was 70,000. That would seem to be the dictionary definition of "slow".


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Well more carriers certainly improves the odds, where have you ever seen me say they wouldn't?

I have heard you defend ATT quite a bit, which said to me that you seemed to like the single carrier exclusive. Its good to see that you see its ultimate limitations.


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If Apple had sold the phone through multiple US carriers the iPhone experience would be inconsistent and more expensive than it currently is.

The iPhone experience has been inconsistent anyway, due to the variability of ATT's service (like any carrier, good some places, mediocre or bad other places), and the fact that customers have no alternatives. More expensive? Don't see how. ATT is one of the higher cost carriers in the country, and you'd think that competition among carriers would actually drive prices DOWN, not up.


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It is much better for Apple to establish the iPhone and its expectations. Then expand it to carriers that agree to its terms.

We somewhat agree here, though I wish the exclusivity period was much shorter than even the two years its likely to be. And I do think multicarrier from the get-go was possible, even it was just two carriers at first. But Apple wanted the best possible deal monetarily (revenue-sharing, no subsidy to the customer, etc) in order to set a precedent for future deals, and exclusivity is a lot of what got them it.

Really, ATT has already performed its role. From here on out, exclusivity is pretty much a boat anchor on sales, as you agree.

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post #123 of 137
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If you look at the situation in Europe, where N95's, Viewtys, Pradas, W960s, P1s, etc, are subsidized to near free, (also sold unlocked), one wonders why the iPhone even sold at all. If Apple sells 300k iPhones compared to LG's 300k Viewtys, which is the more impressive achievement?

Good point. But apparently it can still be considered a failure because those other phones were not as hyped in the media as the iPhone.

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Keep working on it. Wikipedia is a nice resource. What you'll find is that the sum total of ATT's acquisitions since Verizon's formation is far larger than than VZW's acquisitions.

I've looked and I don't see any greater number.

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Their goal was to sell slightly under 100,000, what they actually got was 70,000. That would seem to be the dictionary definition of "slow".

"France's first month 70,000 iPhone sales just a hair short" Arstechnica headline.

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I have heard you defend ATT quite a bit, which said to me that you seemed to like the single carrier exclusive. Its good to see that you see its ultimate limitations.

Not defending ATT per se. But your analysis of the mobile industry just does not go with what I see on the ground. From what you are saying we should be able to see a majority of Verizon customers and I just don't. I see a general number of people on all carriers.

I've seen just as many people say they hate Sprint and moved to someone else as I see people say they hated Verizon and moved to someone else. Across the market as a whole statistically more people may be leaving Sprint than Verizon. But out in the real consumer world you don't really see more people say they prefer Verizon over Sprint.

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The iPhone experience has been inconsistent anyway, due to the variability of ATT's service (like any carrier, good some places, mediocre or bad other places..

I'm not talking about service. I'm talking about features and prices. You don't get charged to use every feature the way Verizon does.
post #124 of 137
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Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

I'd like to see them hit their Euro sales goals, for starters. So far, they appear to be missing them.

Apple have not announces any Euro sales goals and Orange offered a (rather wide!) range with their target for France.

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I would say Apple needs to sell around 3 to 3.5 million iPhones in Europe in '08 to be sure of making their worldwide sales goal.

Sounds about right. But don't you think that some more Euro countries will be joining the fold this year?


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For Q1, I'd like to see them sell around 800K iPhones, for all Euro areas combined.

Well I think you might be disappointed all over again. To me, that sounds a bit high. Especially for a January quarter.


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... since Windows Mobile is something of a joke. Microsoft has been in the market for several years, with all their tremendous resources to call upon, yet their worldwide marketshare in smartphones is around 5 to 6%.

It doesn't really matter that you consider them a joke. They are still the competition.
post #125 of 137
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Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

You may have known population sizes, but I doubt you knew specifics about the penetration rate disparity.

It can be hard to go with the method you suggest, since some will argue that the iPhone is so gosh-darn-terrific that some people will pay the early termination fee and jump carriers to get it. In that scenario, its really market size vs market size, though of course, I'm sure most carrier migration occurs with ppl whose contracts are ending with another carrier, not those who pay a big ETF through the nose. But we have heard some pretty big whoppers on the spin side of this discussion, haven't we?

What you can do, as you said, is look up the size of the launch carriers Apple used in Europe, combine them, and compare that to ATT's size. Or did you have something else beyond that in mind too?

.

But that doesn't matter, because there are only a few specific places to buy it from, and most of them are the carriers. What happens later doesn't matter for this. It's been estimated that 20%, both here and abroad, are being used unlocked in some way. So we can figure that out.
post #126 of 137
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Originally Posted by THT View Post

I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple will continue with its exclusive carrier strategy for the foreseeable future.

If all their deals are for 5 years as it is with ATT, they won't have a choice. But having to sell unlocked phones in some regions will affect that.
post #127 of 137
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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

What are the new versions of the Touch and the LG Prada? The report doesn't specify if they are talking about the old N95 or the newer with 8GB of memory.

The Touch Dual replaced the Touch here. The LG Prada was replaced by the Shine and Viewty although you can still get the Prada, just cheaper than launch. LG seems to come out with another shitty phone every 3 months.

The point with that original analysts piece is he seemed to take the US's popular models perspective and apply them to the European market as a comparison when we'd already moved on to newer models. It was about 6 months out of date and looking in the wrong places - eg HTC phones which are about as popular as the plague.


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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

The N95 should outsell the iPhone. The N95 first quarter was on multiple carriers in multiple countries. The iPhone first quarter was in one country on one carrier and only sold 400,000 less.

Yes, so Apple got their sales strategy wrong.

As I've said, US sales were impressive. However, European sales have been on multiple carriers in multiple countries and sales rate is 13K a month on Orange in France and they've been selling better than the UK or Germany. The N95's sales rate was half a million a month here, not at best 100K.


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Originally Posted by melgross View Post

That's not what I meant. I know the population sizes.

What I was talking about was the number of people who could have bought the phone in the first quarter, and used it.

In the US, we just have ATT, with about 60 million customers average over that first quarter. What was the comparable number of people that the carriers in Europe have? Forgetting, for the moment, the people buying them to use outside of the carrier, because we had plenty of that here as well, though, in both places, it's a minority.

If there were more people able to buy the phone, then the numbers are even worse than they seem. If there are fewer people, then the numbers are better.

Get it?

O2 in the UK have 17.8 million customers, Orange France have 23 million subscribers, T-Mobile Germany have 32 million. ie. in total they have 72.8 million subscribers - ie. 12.8 million MORE than AT&T in the USA.

Apart from that, the USA accounts for about 10% of the smartphone market. We buy more smartphones here per capita. But we're not buying iPhones at anything like the rate we buy other phones.
post #128 of 137
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Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

Yes, so Apple got their sales strategy wrong.

Apart from the exclusive carrier deals which net them a monthly slice of the plan for the next 18 months.

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and sales rate is 13K a month on Orange in France and they've been selling better than the UK or Germany. The N95's sales rate was half a million a month here, not at best 100K.

If Orange have sold 70K iPhones in 33 days .... thats a rate of 60something K per month. The N95 was on sale in the UK for very nearly 8 months when it hit the million mark. Fantastic figures but nowhere near the sales rate you come up with.

Look I don't know if Apple were expecting better Euro sales figures or not. I just feel that some people here and in the blogosphere are painting an unnecessary gloomy picture. The figures have to be put in context.

For whatever reasons (financial, tactical, whatever) Apple have chosen their sales strategy. One can't just day "it's wrong". You might as well say that Apple would sell more phones if they had introduced a $199 iPhone last January!

The iPhone is selling. It may not be the best selling smart phone (in each country) but it appears to be 'up there' or thereabouts. It might have done worse (many predicted it would) and it could do better.

Although I disagree with the doom and gloom merchants, I agree with 'some ' of their reasoning. Price, Plans and Features. Apple is the new kid on the block. It's only been 6 months! The current iPhone will get better (updates, software features, SDK), newer iPhones are unlikely to me more expensive, rate plans should eventually be broader (and maybe a little cheaper).

Apple have had a a lot of experience with the iPod in reacting to the market and the competition. There is a lot of room to manoeuvre with the iPhone but I suspect that they aren't going to rush into sweeping changes.
post #129 of 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

If all their deals are for 5 years as it is with ATT, they won't have a choice. But having to sell unlocked phones in some regions will affect that.

Heh. I suspect part of the masterplan is that in 5 years, ATT will be the dominant carrier in the USA and therefore makes the multi-carrier strategy irrelevant. Anyways, on a more serious note, there must be more ambition for both Apple and ATT than simply, "Apple sells the most phones!" In any partnership, both parties must be helped, and ATT's must be hoping for higher service plan revenue and switchers from other carriers.

If ATT marketshare grows, due to both increasing market penetration and switchers, exclusivity as a strategy is working. Does this mean T-Mobile will die or be bought out in 5 years? Yes. Sprint looks to be heading there. And Verizon, well, it'll be interesting. Kind of depends on where they go with their 4G network.
post #130 of 137
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Originally Posted by piot View Post

Apart from the exclusive carrier deals which net them a monthly slice of the plan for the next 18 months.

Again, that's not the measure of success. Jobs stated 1% of market share was the target, not how much they were ripping off customers.

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Originally Posted by piot View Post

If Orange have sold 70K iPhones in 33 days .... thats a rate of 60something K per month. The N95 was on sale in the UK for very nearly 8 months when it hit the million mark. Fantastic figures but nowhere near the sales rate you come up with.

Orange's rate is the weekly rate now as stated in the article after the initial high sales in the first weeks.

Nokia's 1.5m for N95s in a quarter were from it's financial results.


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Originally Posted by piot View Post

Look I don't know if Apple were expecting better Euro sales figures or not. I just feel that some people here and in the blogosphere are painting an unnecessary gloomy picture. The figures have to be put in context.

For whatever reasons (financial, tactical, whatever) Apple have chosen their sales strategy. One can't just day "it's wrong". You might as well say that Apple would sell more phones if they had introduced a $199 iPhone last January!

One can say it's wrong, based on evidence. eg. Orange's below par sales and Jobs stating he wanted 1% market share. Add in 1.1m sales in the US as reported by Canalsys. It doesn't look good for hitting 1% market share in 2008.


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Originally Posted by piot View Post

The iPhone is selling. It may not be the best selling smart phone (in each country) but it appears to be 'up there' or thereabouts. It might have done worse (many predicted it would) and it could do better.

Although I disagree with the doom and gloom merchants, I agree with 'some ' of their reasoning. Price, Plans and Features. Apple is the new kid on the block. It's only been 6 months! The current iPhone will get better (updates, software features, SDK), newer iPhones are unlikely to me more expensive, rate plans should eventually be broader (and maybe a little cheaper).

Apple have had a a lot of experience with the iPod in reacting to the market and the competition. There is a lot of room to manoeuvre with the iPhone but I suspect that they aren't going to rush into sweeping changes.

I agree. The easiest change though would be dropping the price to a reasonable level for the market they are in. More seriously to compete, they need to bring new models online to match the competition who do that every few months. But we'll see what MacWorld brings.

The problem I think is there's such a disparity between Europe and the USA. In the USA the iPhone is reasonable value and competitive with other smartphones, of which there is little choice. It's therefore sold like gangbusters. In Europe, with maybe 75% of the smartphone market, it's sold at best averagely because it's not priced competitively regardless of it's features, which are also lacking, and it's in a much larger field of smartphones.

So, I suspect at MacWorld, Steve will show a pie chart of how the iPhone has taken over America and skip past the bit where it's 1% of the smartphones sold, let alone 1% of phones.
post #131 of 137
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Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

O2 in the UK have 17.8 million customers, Orange France have 23 million subscribers, T-Mobile Germany have 32 million. ie. in total they have 72.8 million subscribers - ie. 12.8 million MORE than AT&T in the USA.

Apart from that, the USA accounts for about 10% of the smartphone market. We buy more smartphones here per capita. But we're not buying iPhones at anything like the rate we buy other phones.

Ok, thanks. That's what I was wondering.
post #132 of 137
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Apart from that, the USA accounts for about 10% of the smartphone market. We buy more smartphones here per capita. But we're not buying iPhones at anything like the rate we buy other phones.

This statement is still unqualified. Once again we still don't know how many iPhones have been sold in Europe. All we have right now is what was sold in France over December. If it could be shown that most other popular smartphones sold more than 70,000 in France over December then I would agree with you.

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Again, that's not the measure of success. Jobs stated 1% of market share was the target, not how much they were ripping off customers.

Oh I don't particularly feel ripped off. After I pay ATT how they split the money is up to them.

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One can say it's wrong, based on evidence. eg. Orange's below par sales and Jobs stating he wanted 1% market share. Add in 1.1m sales in the US as reported by Canalsys. It doesn't look good for hitting 1% market share in 2008.

The 1% marketshare keeps being touted. What's being forgotten is that there are still 45 other European countries the iPhone has not officially been introduced to. It is yet to be in Australia, Canada, Russia, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil. As well as Asia. So their is still a lot of ground to cover over 2008.
post #133 of 137
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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

This statement is still unqualified. Once again we still don't know how many iPhones have been sold in Europe.

We have some proper evidence and some circumstantial.

Orange in France sold 70,000 in 5 weeks. That's a solid report.
O2 in the UK 'met expectations' and their CEO said that was a 'few hundred thousand'.
T-Mobile in Germany were reported as selling as few as 700 a week at the beginning of December after initially selling 10,000 on the first day.

To me, that says no more than half a million this quarter.

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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

All we have right now is what was sold in France over December. If it could be shown that most other popular smartphones sold more than 70,000 in France over December then I would agree with you.

Then you'll never agree with me because nobody has released country by country and model by model numbers. The two data points we do have for definite are the Viewty selling 310k in 5 weeks across Europe and the N95 selling 1.5 million in it's first full quarter.


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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Oh I don't particularly feel ripped off. After I pay ATT how they split the money is up to them.

You don't feel ripped off because you're used to paying high fees in America. In Europe we're not.

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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

The 1% marketshare keeps being touted. What's being forgotten is that there are still 45 other European countries the iPhone has not officially been introduced to. It is yet to be in Australia, Canada, Russia, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil. As well as Asia. So their is still a lot of ground to cover over 2008.

Yes there sure is and no I've not forgotten it but if you think Albanian sales of the iPhone are going to take up the slack when it's not selling as well as it should to gain 1% market share in the three most advanced countries in Europe, I think you're mistaken.
post #134 of 137
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We have some proper evidence and some circumstantial. To me, that says no more than half a million this quarter.

That sounds realistic. So you are saying half a million would be a failure? Irrespective of the profit Apple makes or the new customers their partners acquire?

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The two data points we do have for definite are the Viewty selling 310k in 5 weeks across Europe and the N95 selling 1.5 million in it's first full quarter.

To keep it in perspective these are two phones selling across Europe on multiple carriers and for a cheaper price or even free.

The iPhone selling in 3 countries with one carrier at a higher price. Some could look at this scenario and say they are lucky to sell half a million.

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You don't feel ripped off because you're used to paying high fees in America. In Europe we're not.

I pay the equivalent of 36 pounds. From what I've seen that is about the same as a UK plan before you even get unlimited data.

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Yes there sure is and no I've not forgotten it but if you think Albanian sales of the iPhone are going to take up the slack when it's not selling as well as it should to gain 1% market share in the three most advanced countries in Europe, I think you're mistaken.

Apple started with the largest consumer economies. But their are several other strong economies that yet have access to the iPhone.

If the rumors are true that Apple is near half way after 6 months. It will be easy claim the other half over the next 12 months.
post #135 of 137
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Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

Again, that's not the measure of success.

Are you saying that making a profit is not a measure of success?


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Orange's rate is the weekly rate now as stated in the article after the initial high sales in the first weeks.

You quoted it as a monthly rate. I got confused. I guess I am not the only one.

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Nokia's 1.5m for N95s in a quarter were from it's financial results.

Yes they were. But the point you were trying to make was that iPhone was nowhere near N95 sales in the UK. That 1.5m figure is worldwide sales. Nokia's million N95 UK sales took 8 months. (plenty of references to the figures around). If we are going to compare figures .... they ought to at least be relevant.


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One can say it's wrong, based on evidence. eg. Orange's below par sales and Jobs stating he wanted 1% market share. Add in 1.1m sales in the US as reported by Canalsys. It doesn't look good for hitting 1% market share in 2008.

Yeh but this "evidence" is at best .... a bit vague. Job's target is not evidence against missing the target. There's a whole year to go. iPhone will probably sell 1.5M+ this quarter. Apple need to sustain that rate and add another 1M per quarter. SDK, software updates, hardware updates, 3rd party applications, games, additional countries, mini launch fever in those countries(!), maybe another model and ...... another holiday season.


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So, I suspect at MacWorld, Steve will show a pie chart of how the iPhone has taken over America and skip past the bit where it's 1% of the smartphones sold, let alone 1% of phones.

For the first time I detect a tough of antagonism in your posts. The Canalys figures show iPhone with over 3% of the smart phone market and Gartner's figures put iPhone at 0.4% of the whole mobile phone market. This was Q3 2007 when the iPhone was only available in the US. Even soft European sales should improve those figures for Q4. I don't think Steve Jobs has anything to be embarrassed about.
post #136 of 137
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Originally Posted by THT View Post

Well, opinions is all we have in absense of data. My bet is that Apple will have sold 2 to 2.5m units in Q4 07. If that doesn't happen, I'd better sell the stock now, because it'll drop a lot.

Well, 4m units in 200 days is the figure as quoted from Jobs during MWSF08. 1.4m at end of September. This means in Q4 07, Apple probably sold 2.4 million units or so. A good number from the Q3 07 and Q4 07 and very iPod-ish sales trends.

How many sold in Europe? Well my guess is on the order of 350k to 400k units. This means Apple sold 80 to 85% of iPhones in the USA. And 10 to 20% of those American phones are probably bought for the purpose of resale in other countries. Unlocking appears to be good business for now.

To increase sales, Apple will probably need 1.5m units in Q1 08 and ever increasing units each quarter thereafter to hit 10m in 2008. This tough. They definitely need all of Europe, East Asia, South Asia (India), Australia, and South America to really comfortable hit it along with 3G, flash storage increases. If there was an iPhone nano, I think they'd hit the mark without any problems at. They may be able to hit it in 2 quarters alone with a cheaper iPhone.
post #137 of 137
Quote:
To increase sales, Apple will probably need 1.5m units in Q1 08 and ever increasing units each quarter thereafter to hit 10m in 2008.

I don't quite understand what you mean. If Apple sells 1.5m all four quarters of 2008 it will reach 10m by the end of the year.
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