First month French iPhone sales fall shy of target - Page 2

That looks to be more realistic.

You can't. Just delete the contents, and say something like "Oops!", which is what I do.

The iPhone does not exist in a vacuum, total mobile phone sales are relevant. We use the example of other phones to show why the iPhone is not selling in Europe as well as it is in the US. How much it sells against these other phones matters even more. You would like to ignore those numbers because they may not support your argument.

"CEO, Didier Lombard, unveiled some details and a lofty sales goal in an interview with Europe 1 radio. By the end of the year, Orange hopes to sell 100,000 iPhones, though Didier wasn't clear on whether that figured includes the unlocked iPhones that French law requires of Apple."

From the Europe 1 interview he said he hopes to sell 100 but I guess you can hold his feet to the fire to prove poor iPhone sales. We may be using different math but I would not call 70 well below 100. At the current rate by the middle of January Orange will have sold over 100. Doesn't really much matter if they sell 100 in the first four weeks or the first 6 weeks.


That depends on if the iPhone helped Orange gain a significant number of new subscribers in contrast to its competitors. Has any other phone brought nearly 35,000 new customers to any other mobile carrier? Your narrow focus on iPhone sales misses other important factors. Success in the mobile phone market is measured in subscribers.

It doesn't matter. If Apple had announced that they expected 1 million sales in the first 6 months, and they made 2 million, then it would be considered a success. If they announced that they expected 3 million sales in the first 6 months, and made 2 million, it would be considered to be a failure, irrespective of how other phones did.


Teno, I truly hope you don't invest. If you did, and lost $30,000, you would surely think it was something. If you bought a house for $100,000, and it went down to $70,000, you would think it was something (though where you would get a decent house for $100,000 today I don't know).

30% is a very big shortfall. That's what matters, the percentage. If Apple's guidance for the quarter of $9.2 billion in sales were down by 30%, that would leave it as $6.44 billion. What do you think would happen to the stock if that happened?


35,000 new customers is nothing.

Yes it becomes a big short fall when you move the numbers up into millions and billions. As it is much more difficult and takes much more time to sell millions of anything or earn billions in revenue.

The difference is much less significant when its 70,000 to 100,000. I doubt the market will make a big deal of Orange selling 100,000 over six weeks instead of four. Either way they are still making money.


Its all about context. 35,000 new customers over 4 weeks because of one phone. Is any one phone responsible for attracting 35,000 new customers in that time frame to Orange's competitors.

35,000 is a small number if that were the only new customers Orange gained. But that seems unlikely.

I don't really think that's the issue. It's certainly one of them, but not the main one.

The main issue is the price. It's just not comparable with similar phones in Europe from the same carriers in the same shop.

Yep. certainly more realistic.

From phone shopping before Xmas in Carphone Warehouse, of the 7 stores they have in Manchester, they all had plenty of iPhones whereas I had to hunt around stores to get a SE W580 as a present. There were people playing with the iPhone, and in the Apple store too, but I didn't see anyone buying. Completely anecdotal of course but that's the impression I get. I don't know anyone who has an iPhone. Even the Apple nuts I know haven't bought one or the people who always have to have the latest phone. I've seen one iPhone used out in the wild.

If O2 dropped the tariff prices by £15 each then it might be more competitive apart from the £269 basic price for the iPhone which many people might be ok with as a one off entry fee. Ideally though, that needs to drop too.

IMHO if Apple really meant what they said about shaking up the carriers, Apple should have just sold it unlocked at £299 and let anyone stick a SIM in from any carrier, even PAYG SIMs. They'd have sold millions more. The carriers could have then sold iPhone specific tariffs for people that needed the data and voicemail feature and competed against each other to offer the best service.

That would be a fair market unlike the daft subsidies on phones today which get clawed back through expensive contracts that nobody actually uses all of but buy to get the phone they want. The only thing the iPhone changed here was to remove any decent subsidy and remove the extra minutes/texts you're not likely to use from your expensive contract.

Yep I agree they need to drop the price.

The problem here is Apple have taken their iPhone, designed for a US market, with a sale model, designed for a US market and transplanted it, as closely as possible, into Eurpoe. Just as they do (successfully) with their iPod, iTunes and Mac products.

It isn't working. It will not work.

You see, one of the few markets where Europe generally leads the US in terms of competition, development and maturity is the mobile phone market. I've recently got a new 3G phone (Nokia N73) that will work as a wireless modem with my Macbook via bluetooth for free on a 18 month contract worth £32/month (£576). I get 'unlimited' Internet access adn £34 usage allowance for calls a texts. Apple/O2 cannot (yet) match that.

The iPhone has a better interface and is a good media player (but then I've got a new Nano anyway!) that's all it has to offer. It's just not good enough. Until Apple can offer the sort of functionality and value easily available elsewhere they are not going to succeed with their iPhone here.

And it's a shame: I'd like to have a Apple phone... But I won't be ripped off.

Which phone company is that deal with?

5 million iPhones sold by Macworld is not unreachable. Apple sold 1 million iPhones at $499 and $599 in just over two months. Is it not concievable that they sold 4 million more iPhones at $399 in 4 more months? They added 3 countries and we just finished the Holiday quarter. Who knows what will happen at Macworld, but 5 million iPhones sold is possible, if not probable. I think Apple has a few tricks up their sleeve, don't they always? It looks as though the AppleTV will get it's yearly update in January. The iPods get their updates in September. And it looks like the iPhone will get it's updates in June. The next iPhone will be a significant upgrade. It will need 3G, more megapixels for the camera, video capability, and more flash memory to compete in Asia. The new version will get those things just as they are launching into Japan and China.

It's possible, but really impropable I think. In Q4 07, Apple could sell 2 to 2.5 million iPhones in the USA (if it follows iPod trends), and in the UK-Germany-France, it's going to be about 300k units. That'll make it 2.5 to 3 million iPhones sold in the 4Q. Making it about 4m iPhones sold, still a bit away from 5m units.

My anecdotal evidence is that Apple had an awesome holiday season. The Apple stores I went to were packed. Really packed. So, I can believe 2 to 2.5 million iPhones sold. 3 to 3.5m units? I don't think so. At $400, it's still a bit pricey to be mass market and attract non-tech fans.


No doubt the next generation will be better, but unit sales will track with cost, not features. At the current prices, Apple is only looking for 1% of the market or 10% of the smartphone market. If they want more, they have to lower prices for both the phone and the services. Hence, the need for the iPhone nano. If Apple releases in it 2008, that is when we'll know they intend to take more of the market.

It really depends on what Apple wants to do, not necessarilly what you think they are doing. Their target is 1% (10m units) of the market in 2008. Success there could mean 7m iPhones in the USA, 2m in Europe, and 1m in Asia. That's probably doable depending on 2008 contract prices.


I'm not understanding you here. What does usage allowance mean?


You forgot the 3.5" screen! And better Internet experience due to it. Anyways, Apple won't be playing the features game. Their game is to have 90% of one's usage, but do it better than the competition. Will this succeed in the UK? Well, depends on the contract prices and how the phone evolves.


I haven't bought one either, but I'm waiting on 16 GB storage and UMTS/HSPA.

I think Apple did in fact think of such a business model, and believed that it would make them less money and sell them less units. As long as phone makers and carriers, in bed together, are willing to offer phones for "free", the free phone option will always win.

...

3G isnt all its hyped up to be. Anyway even on WiFi the iPhone can be painfully slow, I think the main issue holding back sales is the price of the contract... here in the UK when you compare O2's iPhone contract to some of their other offerings, it seems a rip off just to get a 'cool' phone.

In the end I bit the bullet but I had serious doubts and went into the shop undecided over an iPhone or iPod Touch

I don't think that's going to always be true in the UK at least. Here, about half of phone subscribers use PAYG SIMs, not contract. Phones have got good enough and cheap enough now that the economics of contracts just aren't sensible for many people unless there's some business package for their work. The iPhone isn't likely going to be a free handout from work either.

Apple seem to have neither caught the shift in contract to PAYG in the consumer marketplace, or realised that contract phones are usually free and sell to people who balk at the up front cost of phones. As usual I'd suspect Apple Europe of just not getting it, like they did with AppleTV which just wasn't even worth launching here.

These days, SE K800i 3G phones I can tether to my Mac are going for £70 PAYG. Add a £10 a month SIM to get free text and some free calls + £7.50 for 'unlimited' data as and when I need it. Next to spending £269 for an iPhone and being locked into a shit contract for 18 months, I know which one I'd pick.

Hey Aegis,
While I am totally happy with my iPhone. The deal you mention might be good for my daughter.
Can you provide details?

C.

I love her. But I don't love her enough to give her an iPhone.

I think that Orange could only be aware of phones activated against their network, which would not be equivalent to all sales of the iPhone in France.

T-Mobile

See the T-Mobile flext price plans. Rather than have so many minutes of free calls and so many free texts per month. You get an allowance of a certain value, which you can use on either calls or texts.




I think that came under the better interface. Anyway it's not as good as the Internet experience on my Macbook - which I can use with the Nokia.



Price is the killer. It's not competitive as it is.

From what it appears you are saying with pay as you go costs 87.50 pounds vs 35 pounds under 18 month contract. How many minutes and text does that generally get you?

So what is the number of combined calls+texts under your allowance?


Yes of course. But like the rational for have a camera phone, you ain't going to be lugging your Macbook with you everywhere you go either.

I whole heartedly agree that cell-phone as broadband modem is a pretty big feature, especially for business users.


It depends on what Apple wants. They fully know how big a factor price is for unit sales. If they want more unit sales, then they'll tweak the prices and the phone.

Do you have any evidence that this is so? For example, N95 sales breakdowns? Prada sales breakdowns?

It really doesn't jive with my perception of the market. People will go for the cheapest option and will accept a binding contract to get it. The only way your situation wins is that it will be cheaper than the free/cheap phone costs versus unlocked phone + whatever deal they can get, or that the carriers don't set competitive contracts.


Nope. I think they are perfectly happy with the exclusive carrier deals plus revenue sharing. That is, they'd rather sell fewer units for higher revenues than sell a lot of units at lower profit margins. Obviously you don't want to see too few and there is a floor in unit sales before it becomes bad business. What that number is, I don't know. They have a lot of room for tweaking as well.


What are you getting for £10/month for number of calls. What's the limit on the text? What is the data limit for the £7.50? £17.50 is a pretty good deal for voice and data. I should like at pay-as-you-go SIM deals here to see if they are competitive.

I for one an confused by the premise of the story.
Orange's prediction was between 50-100K units. And as far as I can tell. 70K seems roughly in that range. This isn't too shabby when you remember there are no Apple stores in France. And there is no Carphone Warehouse either. The only retail outlet is Orange shops.

If they sold the iPhone in FNAC it might do better.

C.


PS. If you are French and happen to be the CEO of FNAC. PLEASE BRING FNAC to the UK!!

I know you are French and all, but nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing an army of FNAC staff arrive in the UK and kick the arses of Curry's Digital into the North Sea. Amen.

The original Orange prediction was 100K. They added the 50-100K prediction as they announced the 70K sales figures

All I could find was this:
http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/12/....iphones.sold/

C.

This was the original projection, before it went on sale.

And this is why I said they had added the 50-100K estimate, I hadn't seen your article before.

Seems like a reach, really. US Q3 sales were 1.1 million iPhone sold, or a 4.4 million per year pace.

Good, but not enough to reach that 10 million sold goal of Apple's if Euro and Asian sales suck. \



Ditto for me, plus I'd want a carrier other than ATT.

.

Blog posted November 28th that says CEO Lombard projected 50,000 to 100,000.

Well, it depends on 2008 contract prices, no? I for one am thinking that an iPhone nano will come out in Summer 2008 at half the current iPhone price, while the new version will be a good revision. I've always thought that they will reduce prices too, which already happened in the USA and it'll likely happen in Europe. Additionally, Apple is only in 3 European markets currently. There's the entirety of Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Southern Europe and Spain/Portugal to go.

So, they've got a lot of work left to do. If all they have is the one model, it's going to be tough at the current prices, especially for Europe. Who knows what it would be like in Asia. But it is possible as long as they improve the phone and have correct prices.

Also, Q3 unit sales should not be used as an average metric for yearly sales. It will be seasonal, and I wouldn't be surprised if Q4 sales were double that of Q3 sales. 4m in 2007 isn't out of the question. I can easily see Jobs announcing 4m at MWSF.


In America, it doesn't really matter which carrier you have unless you are geographically challenged.

"Geographically challenged" covers a much broader area than you let on. That, and some areas get better reception for some carriers based on how far a tower is from your home or business.

Depends on the cost of the calls/texts you make. 1 text costs 8.5p, calls 17p per minute. The allowance per month on my price plan (Flext20) is £34. See:

http://www.t-mobile.co.uk/shop/mobil...8mth-flext-20/

There's a lot of "hopefullys" in that comment. \

What's funny is that a lot of ppl here have commented that there'd be no point in an iPhone Nano, as it would be bad to have a smaller screen than the current 3.5". In any case, an iPhone Nano is pure speculation at this point. Ditto additional price drops on the current model in the near term... it just had a huge price drop only 4 months ago.



Q4 sales might be significantly higher than Q3... then again, they may not, as Q3 sales include the leading edge of the early adopter wave, Q4, not so much. And regardless of how good Q4 sales are, what of Q1 and Q2? Can't count on blowout holidays sales in May, after all.



Completely untrue. Examine things like carrier churn rates (i.e. how many customers leave a carrier per month), JD Power surveys, Consumer Reports, etc. You'll find that carriers do indeed vary in quality quite a bit.

Take my area, for example. Verizon is great here, T-Mobile's not bad, ATT and Sprint are mediocre to bad, and MetroPCS is kind of a joke. Meanwhile, in inland South Carolina where my brother's going to grad school, Alltel is the best, Verizon second, and everyone else is not really worth having.

It varies region by region, but no, all carriers are not the same.

.

And on November 27th, we have the following:

Orange discusses unlocked iPhones, sales goals for France (Updated)
By David Chartier | Published: November 27, 2007 - 10:04AM CT

As France's Orange prepares to begin selling the iPhone on Wednesday, its CEO, Didier Lombard, unveiled some details and a lofty sales goal in an interview with Europe 1 radio. By the end of the year, Orange hopes to sell 100,000 iPhones, though Didier wasn't clear on whether that figured includes the unlocked iPhones that French law requires of Apple.


Reuters reports the same thing, also on the 27th:


UPDATE 2-Fr Telecom sees near 100,000 iPhone sales by year end
Tue Nov 27, 2007 8:55am EST

Orange will offer an unlocked i-Phone at a price "significantly lower" than the 999 euros ($1,485) proposed by T-Mobile in Germany, Didier Lombard, France Telecom's chief executive, told Europe 1 radio in an interview on Tuesday.

He predicted 100,000 sales by the end of the year, a projection which analyst Carolina Milanesi of research group Gartner called "reasonable".

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...BrandChannel=0


So they missed their goal by about one-third (100k goal vs 70k actually sold). Not a total disaster, but it does show that iPhone sales are soft in Europe... especially considering that France seems to be the strongest of the Euro launch areas.

Frankly, I'm even more concerned about the UK and Germany.


.

Well yes. We are trying to predict the future here. Even a proponent of the pessimistic viewpoint - not meeting the projected unit sales - must use "hopefully". No one can predict the future with such assuredness. We'd be more confident if we had Apple's market research and market strategy in hand, but alas we don't.


It doesn't have a price drop in Europe yet. iPhone nano is pure speculation, but it's good speculation. It's a probable event, unlike say, Apple ressurecting the "Newton" brand or producing a cell phone with Windows Mobile or a Mac OS X update with Windows app binary support.


I think the early adoptor phase is over. It was over within the first month. In regards to Q1 and Q2, if it follows iPod sales trends from yesteryear, it would have increasing sales every quarter with Q4 being the exception where it should be about double Q3. Also, for Q1 and Q2, Apple can count on revised hardware (both minor and major) and revised software to continue to drive sales.


My comment was about the overall quality of service (not radio reception) from the carriers. When the industry is already bad, variability among the different companies don't matter much. Apple's choice of ATT as an exclusive provider speaks more to them wanting the iPhone to be a niche product for at least until 2008 rather than trying to make it a popular product available on every carrier in the USA. The price alone should tell you that also.

If there is a geographical reason why one's reception is better than the other, than yup, Apple is willingly giving up those markets. If the big four are providing equal coverage in an area, and you're saying company service matters, then I'm skeptical.

I'm on Orange PAYG. If you top up at least £10 a month they give you unlimited text evenings and weekends. If you top up more, unlimited all the time. I rarely spend that much though.

A month on Orange World data is £7.50. It's 'unlimited' but has a fair usage policy. I've abused it many a time and not been kicked off.

Try http://www.onecompare.com/ btw for comparing phone deals. IME, PAYG is better for kids as they can't go mad!



No. The K800i costs £70 outright, one time cost. SIM is as above. Texts cost 10p each, calls vary. You don't get free anything - it's PAYG. You do get rewards however for topping up regularly and being a long standing customer.

So, I'd expect a year would cost me £280. That's only £10 more than the iPhone costs before I've even turned it on and I'd get 3G and a decent camera.


I use PAYG SIMs for a number of other reasons. I've a business line which is almost always incoming only. I use an old T610i and a PAYG SIM. It ends up costing me about £20 a year. PAYG SIMs are great value if you never phone anyone.



I'm sure I've read the PAYG v contract split somewhere but Google is failing me.

It definitely needs one, stat. \



It's not really a probable event, unless you believe that the iPhone is "Just like the iPod". But for good or ill, there are big differences between the music player market and the cellphone market.



Even if that's true, and we really don't have anything other than your opinion to go on regarding that, it'd still affect Q3 sales quite significantly.



Forget the iPod. Its a very different market.



Revised software in that timeframe is likely, revised hardware, not really. Best estimates put a new iPhone (3G) in a mid- to late '08 timeframe.

While I personally would LOVE it if revised hardware showed up during Q1 or Q2, I am not holding my breath.



As was mine. Churn/customer loyalty is affected by more than just reception (customer service, phone quality and selection, billing issues, etc. etc. all play a part), plus there are national surveys on categories separate from reception/call quality, such as customer service/customer care.

And yes, in those surveys, the results show the carriers differing in quality, just as in the reception/call quality surveys.



The industry is bad in some ways (I could give you a list), but that does not mean that all carriers are equally bad, nor does it mean that they are equally bad across all regions. And, in fact, there are some carriers in some regions who are actually quite good. I've been with my current carrier for several years now, wouldn't change for the world.



Nah. Apple went the exclusive carrier route because they wanted a partner who'd be very focused on marketing and promoting the iPhone, and who'd make changes to their network that would allow certain iPhone features to happen that couldn't otherwise, such as visual voicemail. Plus, and perhaps most importantly, they wanted someone who'd be willing to agree to an unprecedented-in-the-wireless-world revenue sharing deal.

Apple wanted a certain deal, and they had to give exclusivity in order to get it.



Not really. There are more expensive phones out there than the iPhone which are not exclusive nor particularly 'niche'.



Apple is willingly giving up those markets because they had to, in order to get the deal they wanted.



No, what I'm saying is that there are plenty of areas in the country where ATT is either mediocre or downright bad, in terms of reception/call quality (though CS and billing doesn't seem to be their forte either), thus Apple's exclusive deal with ATT is indeed holding down iPhone sales.

The iPhone's very good, but if ATT is crap in your area, are you really going to purchase one? For most people, the answer is "Nope". \

No doubt Apple understands this too, which is why its been rumored that their deal with ATT is not a five-year deal, but rather a two-year deal with an option to go five years. An option that Apple will very likely not exercise, as the iPhone will be well-established in the US by then (it is already, really), and they'd make more money by going multicarrier with it.

The other carriers are more likely to agree to Apple's terms now that they see that the iPhone is a success in the US (though Europe is still up in the air).

.

These articles have already been pointed out. The thought was that Orange back pedaled after the first months sales were 70,000. The article I posted quotes Orange CEO did project 50 to 100 from the beginning but of course they hope it would be 100.


This was mostly a goal to earn bragging rights, Orange will have sold 100 by mid January. Not a huge deal as long as everyone's profit ledgers are in the black.


It looks like it about evens out to me. There are some advantages and disadvantages to both PAYG and contract. You just have to pick your poison.


Being in NYC call reception between them is not a huge differentiating factor. But they all still have pros and cons which pretty much equals them out. You just end up picking the one with the most pros you like and the cons you can live with.


I don't think so. The mobile phone co's are going to invest the most money and infrastructure in areas where people have the most money. Namely New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago. Those are the areas where Apple targets its stores, its computers, and the iPhone.

Perhaps.


There are differences to be sure. But there aren't many differences with people's willingness to spend money. At $400 per unit, $70/month, it's not reachable to a large fraction of the population. That's a pretty big barrier for entry, and Apple knows it'll limit unit sales. If they choose to expand their sales beyond the 1% they are targeting. An iPhone nano is all but guaranteed.


Well, opinions is all we have in absense of data. My bet is that Apple will have sold 2 to 2.5m units in Q4 07. If that doesn't happen, I'd better sell the stock now, because it'll drop a lot.


Well, Apple has setup the iPhone to be very iPod-ish with the way it positions the product. It's a luxury item where sales pickup during the holiday season, and drop in the other quarters. It should have increasing sales compared to previous year quarters as it is a new market for Apple while also being a high growth market. Ie, Q3 08 should have more unit sales than Q3 07. This is very iPod-ish in the early years.


We'll know how serious Apple is with the iPhone. A storage increase is possible in Q1 08. It'll be interesting to see if they release a 16 GB iPhone for $499 in the next couple of months. And everyone and their brother thinks a 3G version will come in Summer 08.


I'm not sold on churn as being an indicator of good service. It's more a byproduct of a level playing field of equally bad or good players. Customer loyalty, I buy into that, but I think it is at best mediocre in the wireless business. The satisfaction rates are at best mediocre.


I was with Sprint for several years and had no problem leaving. I'm on Verizon now, and I'll have no problem leaving it too.


Well, I'm glass half full here. I certainly agree they wanted they best revenue sharing deal they could get. But they knew that they would have to lock the phone down and make it exclusive, and they did it happily, not grudgingly, and played the carriers against each other so that they could get it.

The trade is simple. Apple could have sold into a larger market by releasing the iPhone on more carriers, but with less share of the service revenue; or, go with one carrier and a larger share of the revenue. They went with the latter. Branding (niche and exclusive status), what you've said about partnering, whatever, that sounds like a happy choice to me.

Did they have a revenue sharing percentage in mind when they went into discussions? Yes of course. Did it force their hand in regards to exclusivity? Well, I don't know, it doesn't seem like forcing to me. It also seems to me they are willing to negotiate what kind of deal they get too, but exclusivity is something they seem want to do.


Really? I figure by price alone it's in a niche. In the USA, it's 400 dollars. In the UK it's 270 pounds. There isn't any contract discount to speak of. That sounds like Apple wants to keep the iPhone in a certain niche, not mass market popular. Even the superphones in Europe such as the E90, N95, Viewty, Prada, SE whatever, get contract discounts.


You don't think that is by choice? A happy choice?


A 2-year deal with an option to go to 5-years is something new to me. Anyways, if at the end of 2-years, do you think Apple will still decide to have an exclusive carrier? The answer could very well be yes.