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Apple shares bleed red ahead of afternoon earnings report

post #1 of 69
Thread Starter 
Shares of Apple Inc. joined the broader technology sector in a brief free-fall early Tuesday morning as growing fears of a recession and slowing global economy weighed heavily on the Nasdaq stock market.

At one point, the company's shares were down over $11.50 or more than 7.2 percent to $149.80 before fighting back to regain approximately half of those losses. Overall, Apple shares have steadily fallen more than 15 percent since the start of the new year.

The latest skid comes just hours before the company will release results for its fiscal first quarter ended December. Analysts on average are expecting the gadget maker to report earnings of $1.62 per share on sales of $9.47 billion.

With rough iPhone sales figures having been disclosed at last week's Macworld Expo and NPD iPod estimates presumed to be fairly representative, much of Wall Street's attention is expected to zero in on Apple's Mac sales number.

On average, the Street is looking for record-setting Mac sales of 2.3 million units, which would best the company's existing record set last quarter of 2.164 million units.

Apple said in October it expects first quarter earnings of approximately $1.42 per share on revenues of $9.2 billion for the quarter.

Shaw Wu, an analyst with American Technology Research, believes those estimates will again prove conservative. He's modeling slightly above consensus estimates at per-share earnings of $1.63 on sales of $9.4 billion.

"As in previous quarters, we believe the gross margin will likely be the biggest swing factor in driving earnings-per-share upside or downside dependent on product mix and the ability to capitalize on favorable component pricing," he said.

Wu believes Apple will report quarterly gross margin of 33 percent, compared to the company's estimated 31 percent and the 31.2 percent reported for the year-ago quarter.

Looking ahead to the current quarter, the AmTech analyst believes Apple will continue with its conservative guidance "to help set more realistic expectations." He's currently modeling per-share earnings of $1.10 on sales $6.9 billion, noting that iPods have historically seen a seasonal decline during the quarter.

Apple will report earnings from its fiscal first quarter ended December following today's closing bell. AppleInsider will provide its usual in-depth coverage of the report and subsequent conference call.
post #2 of 69
Buy people buy!!!!
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post #3 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Buy people buy!!!!

Is there a good way to get a stock trading account in a timely manner? I don't do much by the way of investments outside of mutual funds in a 401k.
post #4 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Is there a good way to get a stock trading account in a timely manner? I don't do much by the way of investments outside of mutual funds in a 401k.

You can set one up but you'll likely not be able to fund it in time.

Best,

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post #5 of 69
It matters little what is said on the call - in its usual fashion Apple will refuse to answer questions. Just listen to COO Oppenheimer's past responses on these meaningless calls.

The bottom line is that any investor who doubled his money on AAPL in 2007 can do so again in 2008.

Only this time you have to sell the stock short. It's the economy, not the company, that's the issue.

Let's think why, for all those blinded Apple fanboys out there:

1 - The world is at the start of a multi-quarter recession
2 - Home equity lines of credit are tapped out
3 - People are losing jobs- not just blue collar and government jobs (PC buyers) but nice, clean jobs in finance and management (Mac buyers)
4 - No one needs another iPod or Mac when the priority is putting food on the table and gas in the SUV

But even if you deny all of the above, just name another $100bn public company with ZERO succession planning. Just one whiff of another cancer scare (God forbid) for Mr. Jobs, or maybe a fall on that new yacht of his, and say goodbye to the stock and the company. Shame really. They clearly make superior products. And any analyst worthy of the title should be asking about that, not about earnings per share projections.

BTW, we are a 100% Mac/iPod/iPhone/iDog (unannounced but coming soon) household. That doesn't make the stock a buy either.
post #6 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomaspin View Post

It matters little what is said on the call - in its usual fashion Apple will refuse to answer questions. Just listen to COO Oppenheimer's past responses on these meaningless calls.

The bottom line is that any investor who doubled his money on AAPL in 2007 can do so again in 2008.

Only this time you have to sell the stock short. It's the economy, not the company, that's the issue.

Let's think why, for all those blinded Apple fanboys out there:

1 - The world is at the start of a multi-quarter recession
2 - Home equity lines of credit are tapped out
3 - People are losing jobs- not just blue collar and government jobs (PC buyers) but nice, clean jobs in finance and management (Mac buyers)
4 - No one needs another iPod or Mac when the priority is putting food on the table and gas in the SUV

But even if you deny all of the above, just name another $100bn public company with ZERO succession planning. Just one whiff of another cancer scare (God forbid) for Mr. Jobs, or maybe a fall on that new yacht of his, and say goodbye to the stock and the company. Shame really. They clearly make superior products. And any analyst worthy of the title should be asking about that, not about earnings per share projections.

BTW, we are a 100% Mac/iPod/iPhone/iDog (unannounced but coming soon) household. That doesn't make the stock a buy either.

I can't wait until Mel Gross rips you a new one.

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post #7 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomaspin View Post

4 - No one needs another iPod or Mac when the priority is putting food on the table and gas in the SUV

Well I can see what the problem is here - The SUV
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post #8 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomaspin View Post

It matters little what is said on the call - in its usual fashion Apple will refuse to answer questions. Just listen to COO Oppenheimer's past responses on these meaningless calls.

The bottom line is that any investor who doubled his money on AAPL in 2007 can do so again in 2008.

Only this time you have to sell the stock short. It's the economy, not the company, that's the issue.

Let's think why, for all those blinded Apple fanboys out there:

1 - The world is at the start of a multi-quarter recession
2 - Home equity lines of credit are tapped out
3 - People are losing jobs- not just blue collar and government jobs (PC buyers) but nice, clean jobs in finance and management (Mac buyers)
4 - No one needs another iPod or Mac when the priority is putting food on the table and gas in the SUV

But even if you deny all of the above, just name another $100bn public company with ZERO succession planning. Just one whiff of another cancer scare (God forbid) for Mr. Jobs, or maybe a fall on that new yacht of his, and say goodbye to the stock and the company. Shame really. They clearly make superior products. And any analyst worthy of the title should be asking about that, not about earnings per share projections.

BTW, we are a 100% Mac/iPod/iPhone/iDog (unannounced but coming soon) household. That doesn't make the stock a buy either.

I love the people that tell you to short after the stock dropped 25 percent. Give me a break. I can tell you the insiders are buying stocks right now and the best performing fund managers are buying stocks. Let people panic and sell irrationally. That is the easiest group to make money on.
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post #9 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by jivebaby View Post

I love the people that tell you to short after the stock dropped 25 percent. Give me a break. I can tell you the insiders are buying stocks right now and the best performing fund managers are buying stocks. Let people panic and sell irrationally. That is the easiest group to make money on.

I can tell you that in reality it's the insiders who are selling the overpriced AAPL stock, and it's the irrational small time investors that are holding onto ever-decreasing in value stock.

You've been had by the insiders, you just don't realize it yet.
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post #10 of 69
WHAT THE HELL DO YOU MEAN BUY? It said the shares recessed like crazy! WTF..... you don't know anything. If you buy, you will lose. The shares went down because of the MacBook Air.
post #11 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebeat View Post

WHAT THE HELL DO YOU MEAN BUY? It said the shares recessed like crazy! WTF..... you don't know anything. If you buy, you will lose. The shares went down because of the MacBook Air.

You are kidding right?

The entire world market is down right now. The shear fear of recession is bringing the entire economy down.
post #12 of 69
Um. Right. It was all the MacBook Air's fault.
post #13 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I can't wait until Mel Gross rips you a new one.

HAHA


Quote:
Originally Posted by thebeat View Post

WHAT THE HELL DO YOU MEAN BUY? It said the shares recessed like crazy! WTF..... you don't know anything. If you buy, you will lose. The shares went down because of the MacBook Air.

"It said the shares recessed like crazy" which means the stock is cheaper now. Investors usually instruct people to buy low and sell high. It seems to work out better that way.
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post #14 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Is there a good way to get a stock trading account in a timely manner? I don't do much by the way of investments outside of mutual funds in a 401k.

You can usually set up an account online quickly through your bank or an investment company. I use Wachovia to do my on line buying, it is easy, cheap and fast. AAPL is a bargain right now.
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post #15 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

You can usually set up an account online quickly through your bank or an investment company. I use Wachovia to do my on line buying, it is easy, cheap and fast. AAPL is a bargain right now.

AAPL is a bargain... at a P/E of 40 and a F P/E of 30? That is the most idiotic thing I've heard in a long time.
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post #16 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by roehlstation View Post

You are kidding right?

The entire world market is down right now. The shear fear of recession is bringing the entire economy down.

I am willing to bet APPL will be a great long term investment. I stress long term.
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post #17 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by g3pro View Post

AAPL is a bargain... at a P/E of 40 and a F P/E of 30? That is the most idiotic thing I've heard in a long time.

Ok fine, no problem. we will see, check back in a year or two from now.
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post #18 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Ok fine, no problem. we will see, check back in a year or two from now.

It's been said by someone year over year that Apple is going to fall yet it's gone up 80x in 10 years. There will always be someone telling you sell your stock for some paranoid, Chicken Little reason.

I don't pay as much attention as P/E as I do to the companies current and future outlook. Apple is very strong; it will be awhile before anything will be able to stop their preverbal "rolling ball". But you knew that already.
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post #19 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It's been said by someone year over year that Apple is going to fall yet it's gone up 80x in 10 years. There will always be someone telling you sell your stock for some paranoid, Chicken Little reason.

I don't pay as much attention as P/E as I do to the companies current and future outlook. Apple is very strong; it will be awhile before anything will be able to stop their preverbal "rolling ball". But you knew that already.

Thanks ... I agree. Put it this way, if AAPL is through the floor for good God help most other stocks!
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post #20 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It's been said by someone year over year that Apple is going to fall yet it's gone up 80x in 10 years. There will always be someone telling you sell your stock for some paranoid, Chicken Little reason.

I don't pay as much attention as P/E as I do to the companies current and future outlook. Apple is very strong; it will be awhile before anything will be able to stop their preverbal "rolling ball". But you knew that already.

I may seem stupid, but I ask one question: Who (If anyone) is workig on the next generation OS?
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post #21 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by roehlstation View Post

You are kidding right?

The entire world market is down right now. The shear fear of recession is bringing the entire economy down.

Never talk facts and reason with a hater. They're out to see their on theories confirmed through selective information gathering, rather than look at the big picture.
post #22 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by walldorfb View Post

I may seem stupid, but I ask one question: Who (If anyone) is workig on the next generation OS?

Linux people, Microsoft and Apple are the major players and they are all working on the next OS. As an OS matures the complexity increases which keeps pushing the time between releases further. I don't think we'll get a preview of the next OS X version until MacWorld '09, but that is complete speculation and there is surely someone will tell have there own opinion on the matter. If there is anything we have an abundance here at AI, it's opinions.
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post #23 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by walldorfb View Post

I may seem stupid, but I ask one question: Who (If anyone) is workig on the next generation OS?

Probably many of the same people that worked on 10.5. They don't need to reveal anything about their work on 10.6 until WWDC.
post #24 of 69
Well the market is down over-all

I watch 64 stocks on my screen at any given time, whic run the gamet of tech, oil, medical, food stocks, and here's my current breakdown

7 - green, going up some amount (SIRI, ABD, Akam, AMSC, DIVX, ARTE up some)
1 going down more then I'd like (Adobe 4.13%)
ALL of the rest are down marginly, BUT down

Hell Google is down from a year high of $747.24 down to $587.31 … that's got to hurt some

We won't see Apple or many of these going up until tomorrow - if I'm / we're lucky.

Skip

PS I'm keeping my shares and hoping Steve doesn't shitthebed any time soon.
post #25 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Is there a good way to get a stock trading account in a timely manner? I don't do much by the way of investments outside of mutual funds in a 401k.

Ah, patience! There are many more quarters to come. So, go ahead and set it up.....

(Btw - and this is not at all an endorsement, and each person's mileage may vary -- but I use schwab.com. They seem fine.)
post #26 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Is there a good way to get a stock trading account in a timely manner? I don't do much by the way of investments outside of mutual funds in a 401k.

Sure. Go to scottrade.com, find a local branch, call them to confirm, but I believe you can bring certified funds and get trading in a day or so.
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post #27 of 69
I just bought a quick 10,000 worth
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post #28 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomaspin View Post

It matters little what is said on the call - in its usual fashion Apple will refuse to answer questions. Just listen to COO Oppenheimer's past responses on these meaningless calls.

The bottom line is that any investor who doubled his money on AAPL in 2007 can do so again in 2008.

Only this time you have to sell the stock short. It's the economy, not the company, that's the issue.

Let's think why, for all those blinded Apple fanboys out there:

1 - The world is at the start of a multi-quarter recession
2 - Home equity lines of credit are tapped out
3 - People are losing jobs- not just blue collar and government jobs (PC buyers) but nice, clean jobs in finance and management (Mac buyers)
4 - No one needs another iPod or Mac when the priority is putting food on the table and gas in the SUV

But even if you deny all of the above, just name another $100bn public company with ZERO succession planning. Just one whiff of another cancer scare (God forbid) for Mr. Jobs, or maybe a fall on that new yacht of his, and say goodbye to the stock and the company. Shame really. They clearly make superior products. And any analyst worthy of the title should be asking about that, not about earnings per share projections.

BTW, we are a 100% Mac/iPod/iPhone/iDog (unannounced but coming soon) household. That doesn't make the stock a buy either.

iDog? I guess you don't know about: http://www.hasbro.com/default.cfm?pa...oduct_id=16724

And, the rest of your post sounded about as informed.
post #29 of 69
The thing that leapt out of the article at me wasn't any real information about Apple's financial health and stock prospects -- more a journalism 101 piece -- it was that the publisher's view of Apple, Inc. was not of a computer maker, media giant, digital pioneering phoenix, etc., but simple "the gadget maker."

Apple Inc: "Think trinkets." Not quite the same motto somehow.

Which certainly says something about how the non-fanboy (and fangirl) community sees our icon.

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post #30 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by walldorfb View Post

I may seem stupid, but I ask one question: Who (If anyone) is workig on the next generation OS?

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Linux people, Microsoft and Apple are the major players and they are all working on the next OS. As an OS matures the complexity increases which keeps pushing the time between releases further. I don't think we'll get a preview of the next OS X version until MacWorld '09, but that is complete speculation and there is surely someone will tell have there own opinion on the matter. If there is anything we have an abundance here at AI, it's opinions.



I asked this because I remember once reading an AI article about the guy leading the team on Leopard (don't remember it's name) leaving the company about a year ago or so. I didn't see it as a good omen at the time either... Then again, maybe I'm wrong!
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post #31 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by walldorfb View Post

I asked this because I remember once reading an AI article about the guy leading the team on Leopard (don't remember it's name) leaving the company about a year ago or so. I didn't see it as a good omen at the time either... Then again, maybe I'm wrong!

Gotcha. There is also a position that 10.6 will be released faster now that we have the Intel transition out of the way and the iPhone (running ARM11) and AppleTV OS X redesigning out of the way. Meaning, the OS X developers can now promote more time to the evolution of Mac OS X instead of trying to shoehorn OS X into new hardware platforms.
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post #32 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomaspin View Post

But even if you deny all of the above, just name another $100bn public company with ZERO succession planning.

And you know this because you're on the board of directors?
post #33 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Gotcha. There is also a position that 10.6 will be released faster now that we have the Intel transition out of the way and the iPhone (running ARM11) and AppleTV OS X redesigning out of the way. Meaning, the OS X developers can now promote more time to the evolution of Mac OS X instead of trying to shoehorn OS X into new hardware platforms.

Yeah, ok, still I saw things like the os not coping very well with 8 cores, add to this all the 3rd party software that simply misses support mostly for 4 cores or 64 bit on Intel, not to mention 8 cores!

So, I still see here an issue. Yet again, maybe I am the 1 who's wrong, I didn't really dig things as of now!
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post #34 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monkeyoe View Post

Well I can see what the problem is here - The SUV

Hahaha, so true. If you would've bought a Ford Focus instead, you could've brought a couple of Mac Pros home!

-Clive
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post #35 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monkeyoe View Post

Well I can see what the problem is here - The SUV

haha!

In other news I just doubled my investment in Apple, thanks recession, I owe you one.
post #36 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by walldorfb View Post

Yeah, ok, still I saw things like the os not coping very well with 8 cores, add to this all the 3rd party software that simply misses support mostly for 4 cores or 64 bit on Intel, not to mention 8 cores!

So, I still see here an issue. Yet again, maybe I am the 1 who's wrong, I didn't really dig things as of now!

I'm sure others will chime in soon, but I think Leopard and Tiger handle multiple cores just fine. It's the apps that need catching up, and some of them are from Apple, if I'm not mistaken.
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post #37 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomaspin View Post

But even if you deny all of the above, just name another $100bn public company with ZERO succession planning. Just one whiff of another cancer scare (God forbid) for Mr. Jobs, or maybe a fall on that new yacht of his, and say goodbye to the stock and the company. Shame really. They clearly make superior products. And any analyst worthy of the title should be asking about that, not about earnings per share projections.

What? That Jobs may get ill or fall on his yacht?

Or are you telling us that all $100bn companies have succession plans for public viewing?

I remember when my cousin asked his dad if he had a succession plan, he answered, "Yep, but unfortunately,"

"I wrote it," interjected his mom, while whacking my cousin on the back of his head.

Nobody has raised the issue since.
post #38 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Gotcha. There is also a position that 10.6 will be released faster now that we have the Intel transition out of the way and the iPhone (running ARM11) and AppleTV OS X redesigning out of the way. Meaning, the OS X developers can now promote more time to the evolution of Mac OS X instead of trying to shoehorn OS X into new hardware platforms.

While I doubt that the Intel transition severely hampers the OS X dev team, I can do nothing but agree with your next point. As long as 2008 remains the year of "No New Gadgets," OS X will receive the due attention it needs.

That being said, however, I don't think there's a whole lot more Apple can squeeze out of OS X. I think it's time for them to start working on "The Next Big Thing."

Besides, if Apple isn't forcing the developers and users through SOME sort of transition, I think my life would lose any sort of direction whatsoever!

-Clive
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post #39 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by walldorfb View Post

Yeah, ok, still I saw things like the os not coping very well with 8 cores, add to this all the 3rd party software that simply misses support mostly for 4 cores or 64 bit on Intel, not to mention 8 cores!

So, I still see here an issue. Yet again, maybe I am the 1 who's wrong, I didn't really dig things as of now!

Eight cores is a bit much unless you're using one of the few apps that can exploit it. The OS can handle it even if it's slightly non-ideal (very slightly).

But if you're using the machine for paying creative work, then the next version of all your apps can probably take advantage of it. Otherwise, you can buy the $2299 machine with just one quad core chip and it will do you fine.
post #40 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Ah, patience! There are many more quarters to come. So, go ahead and set it up.....

(Btw - and this is not at all an endorsement, and each person's mileage may vary -- but I use schwab.com. They seem fine.)

I use Schwab.com also. I used to use e-Trade until they missed an order of mine, but this was years ago... before the dot-bust. Schwab has been fine.

I recommend opening an account with $500 or $1000 to start out, just so you can learn to read the market, do your own research, and find out who's full of it (plenty of people love to give out bad advice). After 2 or 3 years of playing around and learning how to safely invest, keep increasing the amounts you feel safe investing.

Take your time. The stock market will be around for a while.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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