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Tracking down Apple's missing 1.4m iPhones - Page 2

post #41 of 66
Does AT&T Offer Family accounts? In that case, more than one phone will be bought.

Does AT&T include Business accounts and how many phones purchased on the account?
post #42 of 66
There's one explanation here:

http://www.anguswong.net/?p=58
post #43 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wally View Post

Exactly. Someone needs to cram this "analysts" head in a beach-bathroom toilet, slam the lid down and flush several times. Dipshit.

Curious, is english the official language of this forum?. AT&T said they have just about 2 million iphone customers. I dunno but that seems to be a fundamentally simple statement.

If i told you i had 10 cars.. does it matter if i did not say how many new cars i had or how many used?.. i said i had 10 cars!!!..

AT&T has 2 million IPHONE customers.

Think about that sentence for a minute.. if you still cannot decipher that statement, go ask your english prof what it means then get back to me.
post #44 of 66
All these iPhone are in India as all of my friends here are using iPhones and these are still selling like hot cakes here.

Sachin Dhall
post #45 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by sachxn View Post

All these iPhone are in India as all of my friends here are using iPhones and these are still selling like hot cakes here.

Sachin Dhall

I concur. There must be at least ten or twenty thousand in Hong Kong, judging by the number seen being used in public and in shops.
post #46 of 66
1. Apple has very very little stuff in inventory. Any reseller will tell you they are constantly out of stock for in-demand stuff.

2. Obviously there are a lot, a lot, and I mean, a lot, of unlocked iPhones out there.

3. If Apple launched a full-unlocked iPhone outside the US, UK, even in as late as October, they will complete 10 million iPhones SOLD by end of the year.

That's all I shall say for now.
post #47 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

....however, one analyst suggests that a large number of the handsets are mysteriously unaccounted for....Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein Research observes in a note to investors that the gap between Apple's shipment claims, AT&T's subscription numbers, and European projections should leave roughly 1.4 million of the devices to be split between unlocked devices and those simply idling on store shelves.
.....
The gray market for unlocked iPhones is also unlikely to explain the difference, Sacconaghi says. For its summer quarter, Apple reported 250,000 likely unlocked iPhones in its sales figures, or about 18 percent of the inventory shipped at the time. Assuming about 20 percent of iPhones were unlocked -- a 'generous' amount, the analyst adds -- this would only account for about 750,000 of the 1.4 million phones and leave about 670,000 of the phones "missing in action," according to the note.

For Sacconaghi, this points to the potentially worrying prospect that a significant number of iPhones remain in Apple's channel inventory, whether at its warehouses or at retail locations. If all the 670,000 handsets were to land at the carrier-specific distribution points around the world, this would leave as many as 150 iPhones at each store by the start of 2008.

This excess stock may be partly absorbed by Apple's own inventory but could run higher still if the company has successfully reduced the number of iPhone unlocking attempts through successive firmware updates or by controlling the number of phones sold at once. If just 10 percent were sold unlocked in the last quarter, it would leave more than one million iPhones unexplained and as many as 238 iPhones unsold per store.

....Regardless, the Bernstein report suggests the possibility of cooling demand for the iPhone that is at least partly masked by official shipment numbers, which only indicate the number of products leaving the company's factories.

"This is negative in two ways," Sacconaghi elaborates. "It indicates end-user demand for iPhone is lower than many investors may think based on Apple's [four million] sales figure... and it points to slower iPhone sales in the current quarter, since much of this inventory is likely to be drawn down."

This note is obviously to push AAPL price down by creating a panic about iPhones. So that the various people involved in such a move can pick up AAPL at nice discounts.

Then they ride up the stock by suddenly saying OMFG actually there are tons of unlocked iPhones out there everybody around the world Loves the iPhone.

"For Sacconaghi, this points to the potentially worrying prospect that a significant number of iPhones remain in Apple's channel inventory, whether at its warehouses or at retail locations. If all the 670,000 handsets were to land at the carrier-specific distribution points around the world, this would leave as many as 150 iPhones at each store by the start of 2008."

If... pure speculation. Consider if there are as much as 800,000 unauthorized unlocked iPhones out there around the world. Let's say 10 countries.

China. India. Hong Kong. Singapore. Malaysia. Brazil. Mexico. Japan. Australia. New Zealand.
Think about just 80,000 iPhones in each of those countries (roughly on average)...

Get the picture now?

"The gray market for unlocked iPhones is also unlikely to explain the difference, Sacconaghi says. For its summer quarter, Apple reported 250,000 likely unlocked iPhones in its sales figures....."

Yes, of COURSE Apple is going to underestimate the number of unlocked iPhones. "Likely unlocked iPhones". Apple has contracts and Telco companies they'd like to keep happy (for the most part).

Is Apple going to come out and say, if in truth, "Oh yeah, by the way, 1/5th of all iPhones sold (or 1/6th, whatever) of iPhones sold are being used unauthorized... But Apple rocks anyway because we sold it, people are happy, fu(k you Telco losers!!!"

"Assuming about 20 percent of iPhones were unlocked -- a 'generous' amount, the analyst adds"

Yes, 20% of iPhones unlocked is a "generous" amount because this analyst is an expert on the global black market for unauthorized unlocked iPhones. Pure bollocks.

Forgive the messy nature of my posts. I am just so pissed at this bullshite right now.
post #48 of 66
If this were true, it would be the same thing done by PC companies years ago.

They would count PC sold, as the number out the dorr, who cared if they were sitting on store shelves and not in the hands of users. THIS is why they "Controled" such a large part of the personal computer market supposingly.

Were-as Apple ONLY counted those sold and registered (filing / sending in the warranty paperwork). This was true measure of how many units were sold and in the hands of users.

If the above is true, and I have no reason to doubt it because of the folks / companies who claimed this years ago, then Apple's / Mac are likely to be a hugher percentage of users, as MANT folks who purchased a Mac / Apple never sent in this information, mostly because they don't need the help to use, that PC's did / do.

I base this on the number of folks at one of the Maine chapters of a Mac Users Group, who when asked, said they DDN'T send in the warranty, because they never used the warranty the first time around, so they didn't see a need to send it in on the next Apple / Mac they purchased?

I've purchased 12 mac's over the years, and only filled out and sent in the registration, when I purchased the extented warranty, so if this is true, I'm part of the problem

Skip
post #49 of 66
Another question

Are companies that sell iPhones required to purchase them, and if ss, Apple could have and I'm sure did, sell 4 million iPhones.

The question now is, did the folks / companies that purchased them, sell them?


As for numbers / stock holders, all I care about is the bottom line did Apple sell 4, 5 6 million iPhones / iPod and if so GREAT!

If the folks / companies that purchased them, haven't sold all of them, I feel sorry for them, but APPLE did in fact sell them, so it counts

Now if this is the case, and these folks / companies have a bunch of inventory, well it's a safe bet, they won't be purchasing any more for awhile, and this will show up in the next set of numbers (of course it will get scewed a bit by new markets / countrys opening / coming on-board).

Skip
post #50 of 66
The author of this article is obviously clueless about simple business matters such as inventory, returns, etc. The numbers are easy to reconcile with some basic reading and math skills, along with some business knowledge and some common sense:

AT&T activated phones through 12/31/2007 2,000,000
Sales through MacWorld, 15 days x 20k 300,000
Channel inventory, 30 days x 20k per day 600,000
Inactivated "holiday" phones, 25% x 20k x 10 days 50,000
Returns & exchanges, 5% x 4,000,000 200,000
International Sales 350,000
International channel inventory 100,000
Unlocked phones 400,000

Total 4,000,000


Apple reported 250,000 unlocked phones just two months after it went on sale, so it doesnt stretch the imagination that the total is much more than this 400,000 estimate, especially with 500 million cellular phone subscribers in China alone and 2.2 billion worldwide.

Even if Apple, AT&T, T-Mobile, O2, and Orange only maintained a 15 day inventory, this would support 700,000 unlocked phones which is in-line with Apple's estimates and less than .03% of the worldwide cellular phone market.
post #51 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Does AT&T Offer Family accounts? In that case, more than one phone will be bought.

What a great suggestion. I don't think that they do yet. I certainly would have bought more than one.
post #52 of 66
Replacement units are listed in sales and then written off elsewhere on the balance sheet under warranty and liability. I replaced my original unit several months ago, and countless friends have had a similar experience.

Having said that, this is still the fattest product of its kind in the pipe. Ever.

Can we stop the histrionics now?
post #53 of 66
Thank You flydoggie:

Quote:
The author of this article is obviously clueless about simple business matters such as inventory, returns, etc. The numbers are easy to reconcile with some basic reading and math skills, along with some business knowledge and some common sense:

It always amazes me how others can just take off like a rocket after reading one press report. Even journalists are guilty of this (read: CNET, Wired, etc).

And you learn the lessons of this in the 3rd year of J-school!!
post #54 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8CoreWhore View Post

Probably slipping through the hands of contractors in Iraq.

RE: Missing iPhones...

Either you explanation or another plausible guess is another UN Scandal of misuse and abuse!

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post #55 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by wnurse View Post

AT&T has 2 million IPHONE customers.

Where do you get that number? AT&T said they added over 2m new subscribers but didn't specify how many were iPhones - and that was for the December quarter.
post #56 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wally View Post

Where do you get that number? AT&T said they added over 2m new subscribers but didn't specify how many were iPhones - and that was for the December quarter.

This is the headline of the article.. lets play the game of spot the 2 million iphone customers

Headline.
Apple says it has shipped four million iPhones since launch. With just short of two million AT&T customers using the device, however, one analyst suggests that a large number of the handsets are mysteriously unaccounted for.


Hmm, let me highlight your sentence for you

"With just short of two million AT&T customers using the device
"

Curious, what device where they talking about ? (think carefully now, the entire article was about the iphone so nokia would be an incorrect answer)

Now, the headline said "just short of two million".. i rounded it up to 2 million.
We could use AT&T has just short of 2 million iphone customers if you want.
post #57 of 66
Quote:
In the end, I think Apple should not have made this a locked phone. They would be selling a lot more of them. On the other hand, their continuing revenues would be lower. Still, I think owning the market is worth that.

Dead right on that one. If they made half what they are making right now by originally selling the phone fully unlocked and it meant owning the market they it would be damn worth it.

That is not Apple's strategy. Their interest is not simply in selling as many phones as they can. Apple is just as interested in growing the iPhone platform. Having total control over the iPhone experience and its direction.

Quote:
Just look what happened to the RAZR and Motorola to see what may happen if you don't change fast enough and add more product.

Motorola has failed for two reasons. Motorola dropped the price of the RAZR its best selling phone to nothing. And people discovered it was a crappy phone wrapped in a pretty package. Motorola did come out with other variations of the RAZR to reenergize sales but it was too late.
post #58 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by flydoggie View Post

The author of this article is obviously clueless about simple business matters such as inventory, returns, etc. The numbers are easy to reconcile with some basic reading and math skills, along with some business knowledge and some common sense...

Are you saying that all the Wall Street analysts are clueless about such things as inventory and returns? ---- because they didn't account for the inventory pile-ups in their research reports.

Even Gene Munster --- the most vocal Apple cheerleader --- is now accounting 512,000 iphone in the inventory. Not much different than Toni Sacconaghi's 670,000 iphone in the inventory.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...n_channel.html

For the past 24 hours, Apple fanbois around the world have been calling Sacconaghi as a complete idiot, a Microsoft shill... Let's see if the same Apple fanbois are calling their most vocal Wall Street cheerleader, Gene Munster, a complete idiot.
post #59 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Are you saying that all the Wall Street analysts are clueless about such things as inventory and returns? ---- because they didn't account for the inventory pile-ups in their research reports.

Even Gene Munster --- the most vocal Apple cheerleader --- is now accounting 512,000 iphone in the inventory. Not much different than Toni Sacconaghi's 670,000 iphone in the inventory.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...n_channel.html

For the past 24 hours, Apple fanbois around the world have been calling Sacconaghi as a complete idiot, a Microsoft shill... Let's see if the same Apple fanbois are calling their most vocal Wall Street cheerleader, Gene Munster, a complete idiot.

When it comes to institutional shills, they're all idiots. Sacconaghi is there to drive the AAPL price down, and Munster is there to hold or push it up. All depending on their objectives.

In this case, Munster is overall a bit more sensible and rational (or gives the appearance as such), whereas Sacoonaghi is an unknown from who knows where suddenly coming out with certainly provocative numbers.

Regardless of fanboism, the "neutrals" can have it in plain sight who the idiot(s) are.
post #60 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

When it comes to institutional shills, they're all idiots. Sacconaghi is there to drive the AAPL price down, and Munster is there to hold or push it up. All depending on their objectives.

In this case, Munster is overall a bit more sensible and rational (or gives the appearance as such), whereas Sacoonaghi is an unknown from who knows where suddenly coming out with certainly provocative numbers.

Regardless of fanboism, the "neutrals" can have it in plain sight who the idiot(s) are.

I don't agree with that.

How can Munster, the bulliest Apple stock analyst, is suddenly "sensible and rational"? All the other people are not.

500K is "sensible and rational" vs. 600K is totally unreasonable.

We only get to know Munster's name because he is such a Apple cheerleader. (It's like how we get to know the guy who dress in drag and put on a video on youtube saying "leave Britney Spears alone". And you are basically saying that the attention seeking clown is "sensible and rational".) We don't get to know 99% of the other Wall Street analysts (including Sacconaghi) because they are reasonable and rational people who regularly gives "sensible" stock research reports.

Munster --- being the bulliest bull --- his estimates of 500K channel inventory represent "best case scenario" for Apple. Any reasonable individual would not look at any of his numbers as "sensible and rational".
post #61 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by wnurse View Post

Headline.
Apple says it has shipped four million iPhones since launch.

Well there's your problem.... Apple said they SOLD 4m iPhones. Why is everyone playing semantics here... Apple sold 4m iPhones. AT&T only activated 2m they say. So the other "missing" phones are from overseas sales or unlocks used in americas/europe/asia/australia.

If Apple said they sold 4m iPhones (up to mid January), and they only shipped that many and didn't actually sell them, then they could get into serious trouble.

Perhaps you should take that english lesson... and maybe a remedial math lesson while you're at it...
post #62 of 66
Maybe they meant 4m sold to suppliers.
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post #63 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wally View Post

Apple said they SOLD 4m iPhones. Why is everyone playing semantics here... Apple sold 4m iPhones. AT&T only activated 2m they say. So the other "missing" phones are from overseas sales or unlocks used in americas/europe/asia/australia.

If Apple said they sold 4m iPhones (up to mid January), and they only shipped that many and didn't actually sell them, then they could get into serious trouble.

Perhaps you should take that english lesson... and maybe a remedial math lesson while you're at it...

You should take some legal lessons --- the final word is in the SEC filings. And Apple's SEC filings are based on "shipping" numbers.

There is a reason that before every keynote speech, they put a bunch of legal sentences saying that everything is based on forward looking statements and you must read the SEC filings to get the real information.
post #64 of 66
I'm on 1.1.3 now. All is swell
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post #65 of 66
I live in Thailand and EVERYONE has an iPhone!!!!!!!!!!!! They are unlocked and working(not being used as iTouches) When you buy one it is already unlocked all you do is put you sim in it and go. So I'm sure this is the case in other parts of the world so yes its very possible that there are is this many missing. Oh and yes the phones are real not copies. Took one to an Apple Store in the US to check.
post #66 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

You should take some legal lessons --- the final word is in the SEC filings. And Apple's SEC filings are based on "shipping" numbers.

There is a reason that before every keynote speech, they put a bunch of legal sentences saying that everything is based on forward looking statements and you must read the SEC filings to get the real information.

I've said it in another thread...

If the phones are in a supplier's hands and there is no provision for return of unsold product, then legally, the phones are "sold". They could be sitting in an AT&T warehouse, but if AT&T can't send them back to Apple, then it's not Apple's concern, except that AT&T won't be buying any new ones soon...
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