or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Morgan Stanley advises not to bet against Apple
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Morgan Stanley advises not to bet against Apple

post #1 of 38
Thread Starter 
While researchers for investment bank Morgan Stanley aren't disputing that slowing iPod growth presents a negative scenario for Apple's share price, they're pointing to recent history this week in advising their clients that now would be the wrong time to bet against the company.

In a research report Thursday, the firm's duo of Katy Huberty and Alice Hur noted that growing research and development expense reported by the company in its latest filings with the SEC indicate a fresh product cycle is well in the works.

"Apple R&D (reported + capitalized) grew faster in the last three quarters than at any time in the companys recent history," Huberty explained. "This line item has proven to be a clear indicator of future product cycles that drive fundamentals and stock performance."

For example, she noted that year-over-year R&D growth from Sept. 2002 to June 2003 rose 8 percent, yielding the iTunes Store and an operating margin the following year of 3 percent. Similarly, from June 2004 to Dec. 2004, R&D was up another 7 percent yearly, ultimately resulting in a broader portfolio of iPods and an operating margin of 12 percent the following year.

Apple, of course, really began to gain momentum during the two years thereafter. As Huberty noted, from Dec. 2005 to Sept. 2006, yearly R&D grew 26 percent, giving way to Intel Macs, video-based iPod nanos, the iPhone, and a post-year operating margin of 18 percent. With R&D again rising by some 32 percent yearly during the period from June 2007 to Dec. 2007, a broader array of Wi-Fi mobile devices and some yet unknown products are likely to build on this trend, she argues.



"Ultimately, future product cycles are key to stock performance and we view late Spring/Summer as the next potential timeframe for announcements," the analyst wrote. "While macro concerns may prove an overhang in the near-term, investors should take advantage of pullbacks to build positions over the next three months - ahead of March quarter results and potential mid-year product announcements."

Among the potential near-term demand catalysts listed by the Morgan Stanley analyst in her note to clients were rising demand for digital convergence products like Apple TV, increased demand for high-end consumer PC functionality, and opportunities to expand internationally.

Risks, on the other hand, could include Apple's inability to maintain its rate of innovation, set-backs on the timing of new product launches, and new competitive offerings from rivals such as Nokia, Dell and Gateway.

Huberty maintained an Overweight rating on shares of the Cupertino-based electronics maker with In-Line industry view and $185 price target. Her Bear case scenario would see the stock fall to $120 on slower uptake of the new products introduced at Macworld, while her Bull case has shares rising to $225 on high demand and revenue growth from the company's mobile products.
post #2 of 38
Well, this is the first time I agreed with a Wall Street firm's financial wisdom.
post #3 of 38
I'd have to agree as well. In the short term, things may be a bit rocky, but looking even a few months out, the potential upside seems to outweigh the potential risks.
post #4 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by CREB View Post

Well, this is the first time I agreed with a Wall Street firm's financial wisdom.

Agreed. I doubt that the company that changed - no, transformed - the conversation repeatedly with a steady sucession of game-changing products (iPod, the iMac, the iPhone, and so forth) is sitting still.

Let's not forget that Apple has often killed off its own creations so as to migrate to the next stage: Anyone remember the iPod Mini? Jaws dropped worldwide (and markets got completely confused and flummoxed) when Jobs walked in and said "Our best-selling iPod ever, the Mini, is being killed off, and here's the Nano."

Most firms milk their cash cows to death, but not Apple. The moment they see a slowdown, they will move on.
post #5 of 38
a sensible analysis for once.
post #6 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Huberty maintained an Overweight rating on shares of the Cupertino-based electronics maker with In-Line industry view and $185 price target. Her Bear case scenario would see the stock fall to $120 on slower uptake of the new products introduced at Macworld, while her Bull case has shares rising to $225 on high demand and revenue growth from the company's mobile products.

I want one of these analyst jobs, so I can guesstimate anything from $120 to $225
(quite a spread!) and make a nice salary doing so! How can she be wrong?
Journalism is publishing what someone doesn't want us to know; the rest is propaganda.
-Horacio Verbitsky (el perro), journalist (b. 1942)
Reply
Journalism is publishing what someone doesn't want us to know; the rest is propaganda.
-Horacio Verbitsky (el perro), journalist (b. 1942)
Reply
post #7 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafe View Post

How can she be wrong?

Not only that, what consequences are there for being wrong? Seems a bit like the weather forecast. They put a lot of time and effort into reaching a plausible conclusion but hey if it actually does rain on the other side of the country, it doesn't mean the forecaster gets wet.

"Among the potential near-term demand catalysts listed by the Morgan Stanley analyst in her note to clients were rising demand for digital convergence products like Apple TV, increased demand for high-end consumer PC functionality, and opportunities to expand internationally."

Well, well freakin' well.

Time for Apple to start delivering products people want and also treating international customers with some fair pricing. I really hope that the staggering share price drop is directly due to these factors but as always it's speculative.
post #8 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafe View Post

I want one of these analyst jobs, so I can guesstimate anything from $120 to $225
(quite a spread!) and make a nice salary doing so! How can she be wrong?

She'd be wrong if it went below 120. For an investor, you could take a chance and buy now, or wait until it drops to around 120 (which may or may not happen). Either way, the point is that she considers the potential downside pretty minimal (10% down) compared to the potential upside (75% gain).

And I get the impression that she thinks it will go to 235 either way...it's just a question of whether there will be a drop first, and what timeframe it will take to get to 235.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

Time for Apple to start delivering products people want...

Time to start? Apple obviously has been delivering products people want if they've had growth and increasing market share for how many consecutive quarters. Of course they can always continue to add more products people want, and improve the product line. And it's pretty clear what caused the price drop, one specific number in the earnings report.
post #9 of 38
Great article. Nice to see opinions backed up with robust data.
post #10 of 38
Investment rule #1. Historical data has zero correlation with what is going to happen in the future. Any time you see an analyst, day trader, friend, etc backing their opinion with historical data, you should run.

Let me translate this article for you. "We bought a shitload of shares with inflated prices, so we need to come up with optimistic 'analysis' so that we don't lose our shirts. Naturally we don't know what's going to happen in the future, but by backing up our prediction with historical data we can fool naive investors into thinking that history will repeat itself, i.e. historical data = fact."

BTW, for $100 I will write my own 'analysis' why you should NOT buy the stock at the current levels.
post #11 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafe View Post

I want one of these analyst jobs, so I can guesstimate anything from $120 to $225
(quite a spread!) and make a nice salary doing so! How can she be wrong?

You aren't reading the information correctly. Everything is an odds game; she is saying that there is a chance of a 11% further drop, or a 67% upside. In terms of hedging your investments, this says you have a 1:6 chance of losing money, and allows you to chose a way to hedge yourself for either a bull or bear market.
post #12 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Let's not forget that Apple has often killed off its own creations so as to migrate to the next stage: Anyone remember the iPod Mini? Jaws dropped worldwide (and markets got completely confused and flummoxed) when Jobs walked in and said "Our best-selling iPod ever, the Mini, is being killed off, and here's the Nano."

I think that was a bit overplayed on Apple's part. It was basically a new mini, with a new name.
post #13 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

You aren't reading the information correctly. Everything is an odds game; she is saying that there is a chance of a 11% further drop, or a 67% upside. In terms of hedging your investments, this says you have a 1:6 chance of losing money, and allows you to chose a way to hedge yourself for either a bull or bear market.

That's assuming she can see the future. Unless she recommended selling the stock at $200, I'd take these numbers with a grain of salt.
post #14 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I think that was a bit overplayed on Apple's part. It was basically a new mini, with a new name.

And a total redesign. And smaller capacities. I don't think there's any question that the safe move would have been a slight tweak or even leaving the model the same while it was still such a huge seller, while a radical redesign was much riskier.

Quote:
Originally Posted by markoh View Post

Investment rule #1. Historical data has zero correlation with what is going to happen in the future.

Bull. Historical data has LIMITED correlation, meaning that historical data doesn't guarantee future results. It's a mistake to assume that a historical trend is certain to continue. But it's simply wrong to insist that there's zero correlation, meaning that buying based on history isn't any more effective than buying randomly.

If you have one company that has been profitable for 10 years straight, and another that has lost money every quarter 10 years straight, do you really think it's NOT a safer bet that the first will be profitable next quarter than the second. Sure, either company may break their historical pattern. But that's much less likely than the historical trend continuing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by markoh View Post

That's assuming she can see the future. Unless she recommended selling the stock at $200, I'd take these numbers with a grain of salt.

No, that's just assuming she has skill at making this sort of prediction. And you should always take any predictions with a grain of salt, even when they have a stellar track record.
post #15 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post


If you have one company that has been profitable for 10 years straight, and another that has lost money every quarter 10 years straight, do you really think it's NOT a safer bet that the first will be profitable next quarter than the second. Sure, either company may break their historical pattern. But that's much less likely than the historical trend continuing.

In that case the history is already reflected in their stock price. It is naturally more likely that the current trend
will continue when it comes to profits, but like I said that is already reflected in the stock price. Keep in mind, good company != good stock. So using your example, there's a 50-50 chance for the good company's stock to go up or down next quarter, as well as there is a 50-50 chance for the worse company's stock to go up/down.

Over long period of time, it's not 50-50 anymore, due to inflation.
post #16 of 38
First, there is no statement telling investors to buy.

Second, when a royal shithead like Mark Hurd just received $30 million dollars worth of shares for head count cutting versus any innovation at HP, you have to commend Apple for its innovation. As hard as I am on Apple, I want Apple to succeed in many ways. If nothing else, to show shitheads like Mark Hurd (who BTW is a hunt and peck keyboard user) what design is all about.
post #17 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by markoh View Post

In that case the history is already reflected in their stock price. It is naturally more likely that the current trend
will continue when it comes to profits, but like I said that is already reflected in the stock price. Keep in mind, good company != good stock. So using your example, there's a 50-50 chance for the good company's stock to go up or down next quarter, as well as there is a 50-50 chance for the worse company's stock to go up/down.

Over long period of time, it's not 50-50 anymore, due to inflation.

If a company's stock price goes up consistently for 10 years while another's goes down consistently for ten years, you still think that each has the same 50-50 chance of going up or down over the next year? You really think buying based on historical performance is no better than picking randomly?

I don't buy it.
post #18 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

And a total redesign. And smaller capacities. I don't think there's any question that the safe move would have been a slight tweak or even leaving the model the same while it was still such a huge seller, while a radical redesign was much riskier.

The gen 3 nano was a pretty radical redesign too, in some ways more radical than the first nano was. They didn't consider giving the third gen one a new name.

The first nano was mostly adapting the main iPod's familiar design with some mini elements (height, screen size) into a smaller shape and a couple other touches. The only real risk was the capacity drop, but at least the nano's capacity drop looked more justifiable than the mini vs. the main iPod because of the much more significantly reduced size.
post #19 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

If a company's stock price goes up consistently for 10 years while another's goes down consistently for ten years, you still think that each has the same 50-50 chance of going up or down over the next year? You really think buying based on historical performance is no better than picking randomly?

I don't buy it.

That's exactly what I'm saying. If you pick randomly, your portfolio is going to follow the index, e.g. nasdaq. If you claim your method beats random picking, you have found a method to beat the market. To my knowledge, there is no proven way to beat the market.
post #20 of 38
zenga
Reply
zenga
Reply
post #21 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

And a total redesign. And smaller capacities. I don't think there's any question that the safe move would have been a slight tweak or even leaving the model the same while it was still such a huge seller, while a radical redesign was much riskier.

A redesign is always a risk, but when the redesign makes a category product smaller, faster, more durable, and have battery life it's a pretty safe bet it will work. Apple could have milked it longer and may not have seen any real competition except from SanDisk. Or they could have released the Nano along with the Mini for a slight premium, but that would be confusing. What Apple did was cannibalize a category product with a new and improved product before the competition could.

That is how you stay in the lead. Apple in the 1990s was selling old Macs with hardly a revision to them and were making great profits on them, but it happened at expense of Apple almost dying.

Intel had been losing some marketshare to AMD but now they are releasing new processors that are faster and better and at the same pricepoint than the previous model even though AMD doens't have anything to match. Intel has been delaying releasing a little but they are still being very agressive, and it's worked.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #22 of 38
At first I thought Apples share price drop was all about the world economy. It is now dawning on me that part of the problem is investors who STILL think that Apples success is solely due to the iPod.

When Apple posts continued high profits in the face of recession and declining iPod sales over the first and second quarters, then hopefully the reality of Apple being a multi horse pony will kickstart another upsurge.

I have never 'got' quite why people dont 'get it' with apple. But then I'm an atheist, I'm used to being in the switched on minority .
post #23 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by markoh View Post

That's exactly what I'm saying. If you pick randomly, your portfolio is going to follow the index, e.g. nasdaq. If you claim your method beats random picking, you have found a method to beat the market. To my knowledge, there is no proven way to beat the market.

The indices don't contain all publicly traded companies, just select ones. And they're selected because they are the biggest and most successful companies. Meaning they have strong historical performance.

The indices have done well historically because they are made up of companies that have done well historically. If a company goes down the toilet, it ends up getting dumped from the index.

If you chose companies randomly from the ones in a given index, you might keep up with the index. But if you chose randomly from ALL publicly traded companies? Not likely.
post #24 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

But then I'm an atheist, I'm used to being in the switched on minority .

post #25 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

The indices don't contain all publicly traded companies, just select ones. And they're selected because they are the biggest and most successful companies. Meaning they have strong historical performance.

The indices have done well historically because they are made up of companies that have done well historically. If a company goes down the toilet, it ends up getting dumped from the index.

If you chose companies randomly from the ones in a given index, you might keep up with the index. But if you chose randomly from ALL publicly traded companies? Not likely.

Forget about the word 'index'. If you pick randomly from a group of stocks, your selection will statistically speaking follow the group's performance. AFAIK there is no proven methodology to beat random picking, i.e. only picking the best performers from the last 10 years (or any other rule) will not result in better results.
post #26 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

She'd be wrong if it went below 120. For an investor, you could take a chance and buy now, or wait until it drops to around 120 (which may or may not happen). Either way, the point is that she considers the potential downside pretty minimal (10% down) compared to the potential upside (75% gain).

And I get the impression that she thinks it will go to 235 either way...it's just a question of whether there will be a drop first, and what timeframe it will take to get to 235.



Time to start? Apple obviously has been delivering products people want if they've had growth and increasing market share for how many consecutive quarters. Of course they can always continue to add more products people want, and improve the product line. And it's pretty clear what caused the price drop, one specific number in the earnings report.

On this list, 'time to start' means "Time to start making products aimed directly at a market of one... ME."
post #27 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by CREB View Post

First, there is no statement telling investors to buy.

They are 'researchers' which severely curtails such activity.
post #28 of 38
Some people here seem to forget that Stock Exchange is a game, just like horse racing. You are allowed to make educated guess (stock exchange is not totally random as is lottery or slot machines). If you win, you rake in money. If your bets are wrong, you loose money. You are allowed to decide when to pull your balls out of the game, so you can stop bleeding money if you find you are loosing too much (or take a profit if you think you cannot win any more).

Nobody can predict the future, including Morgan Stanley... What they offer is advice based on current trends and their understanding/knowledge of the various industries they are watching for you. But in the end, the investor (you !) are the sole responsible for your actions and its up to you to decide how to play. If you think you know better than Morgan Stanley (or anybody else for that matter), then all the power to you ! Go ahead : bet and become rich quick !
post #29 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

At first I thought Apples share price drop was all about the world economy. It is now dawning on me that part of the problem is investors who STILL think that Apples success is solely due to the iPod.

I don't know if that's true, but it makes sense. iPods are the most visible part of Apple's business.

The drop is too much to be explained just by the economic factors, and I'm not convinced that the MacWorld presentation would do it.

Quote:
When Apple posts continued high profits in the face of recession and declining iPod sales over the first and second quarters, then hopefully the reality of Apple being a multi horse pony will kickstart another upsurge.

I have never 'got' quite why people dont 'get it' with apple.

Hopefully iPod sales don't decline already. But iPods are about half of Apple's business, so if it doesn't grow much anymore, then other parts of the business would have to take over doubly to meet growth expectations.
post #30 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I don't know if that's true, but it makes sense. iPods are the most visible part of Apple's business.

The drop is too much to be explained just by the economic factors, and I'm not convinced that the MacWorld presentation would do it.



Hopefully iPod sales don't decline already. But iPods are about half of Apple's business, so if it doesn't grow much anymore, then other parts of the business would have to take over doubly to meet growth expectations.

Ipods sales is only about 25% of Apple sales. The Mac, laptops, Itunes, MacOS and Iphone make up 75% of the sales. Please do some homework next time.
post #31 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

Ipods sales is only about 25% of Apple sales. The Mac, laptops, Itunes,
MacOS and Iphone make up 75% of the sales. Please do some homework next time.

And remember, profit margins higher with the Mac sales.
For the past 10 years, remember that the Mac is the core of the company.

I suspect it will continue to be so moving forward, as iPhone and iPod Touch,
MacBook Touch, become the "feeders" for people into owning Mac laptops.
post #32 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

And remember, profit margins higher with the Mac sales.
For the past 10 years, remember that the Mac is the core of the company.

I suspect it will continue to be so moving forward, as iPhone and iPod Touch,
MacBook Touch, become the "feeders" for people into owning Mac laptops.

I loved all the Chicken Littles screaming that Apple is foregoing Macs because it came out with the iPod despite all the efforts with OS X and new designs. Then they piped back up again when Apple announced the iPhone, AppleTV and that they were dropping "Computer" from their name. Yet, most of Apple's products are running OS X and they consistently upgrade their Mac product line in HW, SW, and even a new type notebook type that fits into previously defined class.

From my POV the Mac is still the core of the company and everything has been done to sell more Macs.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #33 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

Ipods sales is only about 25% of Apple sales. The Mac, laptops, Itunes, MacOS and Iphone make up 75% of the sales. Please do some homework next time.

I think you should do the same, flame boy. You were off more than I was for the most recent quarter. They grossed more with iPods than they did with the Mac hardware.

http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q108data_sum.pdf

Apple's iPod hardware business was 41%
Mac hardware 37%
iTunes, iPod services (applecare?), iPod sccessories 8.5%
iPhone & related 2.5%
Software, Service and Other Sales 6.5% (Leopard was just part of this)

If I say that I meant just the iPod units themselves, then I was within 9%.
If I were to combine iPod hardware & services, that gets me very close to 50% of Apple's business, within one percent.
post #34 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I think you should do the same, flame boy. You were off more than I was for the most recent quarter. They grossed more with iPods than they did with the Mac hardware.

I think both of you need to consider what drove APPL up into nose-bleed levels: the iPhone. So when the hype "stalled", the stock dove (also the prospect of a R******** cutting into iPod and Mac sales). So what is there in the next 6-9 months to pump up AAPL?: 16GB iPhone (yawn), SDK (for a whopping 100-200 widgets) yawn again. Expansion into Spain (yawn) and maybe Italy (humm...). 3G iPhone in the summer... too late to salvage FY2008, sorry (even with an early-adopter boost from Japan: there's only so much you can get from news stories of hundreds standing in line for iPhone).

And the iPod (which fueled the run-up pre-2008): no-refresh in the line (save for the candy-pink nano) until September. The next two quarterly financials will be great if they show iPod unit shipments up 10% y-o-y (proving to Wall Street that the market for MP3 players is saturated). The ASP inching up by $10-20 per quarter will be conveniently overlooked, as will Apple's strategy of migrating MP3player to multimedia player to wifi-application portable.

And for the Mac line? 40% y-o-y growth will be seen (again by Wall Street) as proof that the Mac resurgence has stalled (level or down q-t-q numbers). And as for Apple TV: there's no way for it to impact the bottom line (do the math: say 1M units at $250 asp x 1/8 deferred revenue accounting is less than 0.04B per quarter, and that's with gangbuster 1M units/quarter sales).

The bottom line is that Apple can continue to have +40% growth y-o-y, quarter to quarter and the outlook for AAPL will be "disappointing".

As a long-time (over twenty years) INVESTOR in AAPL, I expect (and welcome) 6-12 months of consolidation before the next big push in AAPL. What I think it will take to get AAPL moving again: the US economy works through its rec******(sluggish growth) period, the iPhone line expands to two/three additional form factors/features, movie rentals achieve critical mass (4-6000 titles), the next gen of iPods (with a larger-screen iTouch), and the Mac transition past Penryn. Until then, I can/will be patient.
post #35 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Stevenson View Post

I think both of you need to consider what drove APPL up into nose-bleed levels: the iPhone. So when the hype "stalled", the stock dove (also the prospect of a R******** cutting into iPod and Mac sales). So what is there in the next 6-9 months to pump up AAPL?: 16GB iPhone (yawn), SDK (for a whopping 100-200 widgets) yawn again. Expansion into Spain (yawn) and maybe Italy (humm...). 3G iPhone in the summer... too late to salvage FY2008, sorry (even with an early-adopter boost from Japan: there's only so much you can get from news stories of hundreds standing in line for iPhone).

And the iPod (which fueled the run-up pre-2008): no-refresh in the line (save for the candy-pink nano) until September. The next two quarterly financials will be great if they show iPod unit shipments up 10% y-o-y (proving to Wall Street that the market for MP3 players is saturated). The ASP inching up by $10-20 per quarter will be conveniently overlooked, as will Apple's strategy of migrating MP3player to multimedia player to wifi-application portable.

And for the Mac line? 40% y-o-y growth will be seen (again by Wall Street) as proof that the Mac resurgence has stalled (level or down q-t-q numbers). And as for Apple TV: there's no way for it to impact the bottom line (do the math: say 1M units at $250 asp x 1/8 deferred revenue accounting is less than 0.04B per quarter, and that's with gangbuster 1M units/quarter sales).

The bottom line is that Apple can continue to have +40% growth y-o-y, quarter to quarter and the outlook for AAPL will be "disappointing".

As a long-time (over twenty years) INVESTOR in AAPL, I expect (and welcome) 6-12 months of consolidation before the next big push in AAPL. What I think it will take to get AAPL moving again: the US economy works through its rec******(sluggish growth) period, the iPhone line expands to two/three additional form factors/features, movie rentals achieve critical mass (4-6000 titles), the next gen of iPods (with a larger-screen iTouch), and the Mac transition past Penryn. Until then, I can/will be patient.

Just think of a recession as 'recess'. Time to go out and play.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #36 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Stevenson View Post

And the iPod (which fueled the run-up pre-2008): no-refresh in the line (save for the candy-pink nano) until September.

Do you think this is really a problem? Isn't it unrealistic to expect twice a year updates?


Quote:
And for the Mac line? 40% y-o-y growth will be seen (again by Wall Street) as proof that the Mac resurgence has stalled (level or down q-t-q numbers).

How is 40% seen as a stall? It's usually not that good. Compared to the industry as a whole, that's very good.
post #37 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Stevenson View Post

I think both of you need to consider what drove APPL up into nose-bleed levels: the iPhone. So when the hype "stalled", the stock dove (also the prospect of a R******** cutting into iPod and Mac sales). So what is there in the next 6-9 months to pump up AAPL?: 16GB iPhone (yawn), SDK (for a whopping 100-200 widgets) yawn again. Expansion into Spain (yawn) and maybe Italy (humm...). 3G iPhone in the summer... too late to salvage FY2008, sorry (even with an early-adopter boost from Japan: there's only so much you can get from news stories of hundreds standing in line for iPhone)....And the iPod (which fueled the run-up pre-2008): no-refresh in the line (save for the candy-pink nano) until September....

In this case, you're assuming a lot about their product lines, which, shall we say, we've seen time and time again that Apple always has Aces up their sleeves. In the creative industry, they call it "editing out your best idea (or best line of the film)". Like somewhere in Turkey or something where they make carpets and leave out a few threads or something because only God is perfect or something like that. Clearly I am rambling here but the point is, We have NO FRIGGIN CLUE about what Apple is about to release. Product refreshes, yes, but the stellar stuff is in reserve.

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Stevenson View Post

...The bottom line is that Apple can continue to have +40% growth y-o-y, quarter to quarter and the outlook for AAPL will be "disappointing"....

The thing is, Apple is well poised normally for the cyclical nature of their Quarters. Oct-Dec is always through the roof, then through the year, gradual increases based on Year-Ago Quarter.

At least Apple is fiscally sensible enough that they don't set insane targets (at least externally) of Jan-Mar or even Apr-June quarters beating the most recent Oct-Dec numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by David Stevenson View Post

As a long-time (over twenty years) INVESTOR in AAPL, I expect (and welcome) 6-12 months of consolidation before the next big push in AAPL. What I think it will take to get AAPL moving again: the US economy works through its rec******(sluggish growth) period, the iPhone line expands to two/three additional form factors/features, movie rentals achieve critical mass (4-6000 titles), the next gen of iPods (with a larger-screen iTouch), and the Mac transition past Penryn. Until then, I can/will be patient.

I feel too that a consolidation through $150 to the middle of the year, and then ramp to $250 in middle 2009, would be nice. Two problems though, the market is probably very volatile over the next year, so we'll see spikes to $180, $200+? by the end of the year, and a lot of knee-jerks that will kick it to $120.

The other problem is that as mentioned previously, Apple has some excellent stuff in reserve. Just the gradual expansions you mention are definitely going to be there. But there will be more.
post #38 of 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Stevenson View Post

....What I think it will take to get AAPL moving again: the US economy works through its rec******(sluggish growth) period...

I have a vested interest in seeing AAPL get as high as possible. However, we all know how ridiculously "corrupt" (not as in bribes but more like corrupted hard disks) the finance industry is.

I'm happy for what AAPL is, and I'd like to see it relatively unmolested.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Discussion
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Morgan Stanley advises not to bet against Apple