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Poll: Are you smarter than the analysts?

Poll Results: Poll: How many laptops will Apple sell this quarter??

Poll expired: Mar 6, 2008  
  • 11% (2)
    < 1.15M
  • 0% (0)
    1.15 - 1.20M
  • 5% (1)
    1.20 - 1.25M
  • 0% (0)
    1.25 - 1.30M
  • 23% (4)
    1.30 - 1.35M
  • 0% (0)
    1.35 - 1.40M
  • 11% (2)
    1.40 - 1.45M
  • 11% (2)
    1.45 - 1.50M
  • 0% (0)
    1.50 - 1.55M
  • 35% (6)
    > 1.55M
17 Total Votes  
post #1 of 2
Thread Starter 
So how smart *are* the analysts? Smarter than we are?

How many laptops do you think Apple will sell for their quarter ending March 2008 (Q2FY08)?

Here is the latest relevant info I could find:

Q1FY08 (Dec 2007) sales
Laptops: 1.342M
Desktops: 977K

Q1FY07 (Dec 2006) sales
Laptops: 969K
Desktops: 637K

here is a decent chart (though it is old by a quarter):

If you are interested in how they may increase the laptops they sell compared to last year:
Q2FY07 (March 2007) sales
Laptops 891K
Desktops: 626K

Market share (a little dated) from AI:

Worldwide portables shipment forecast (IDC):

So, whatcha think?
Closest person wins.....um....bragging rights!
post #2 of 2
The answer to this question really depends on whether Apple launches a revised MacBook Pro.

The answer to the more basic question: are you smarter than the analysts? is more interesting.

They are certainly no smarter than us, because they are not privvy to any more inside information than we are. Therefore, like the rest of us, they can only guestimate based on previous experience, competitor activity, industry trends, vendor announcements and occasional insider leaks.

Analysts do however have regular contact with Apple senior executives. They also have excellent research resources with which to track down data. But when it comes to rigorous hardcore analysis, they are only as smart as the person interpreting the facts. Some of the stuff we're hearing is laughable.

Take Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray. Last week, he said that the recent meltdown of Apple's stock price represented an immedaite buying opportunity. The stock was at $135 when he said this and has since gone down further, even dipping below $130. So anyone investing on his recommendation would have already lost money. Moreover, this guy was advising people to buy before Christmas when Apple's stock reached $200. What is strange about this analyst's recommendation is that even at a current depressed stock prices, Apple is still trading at a multiple far in excess of its earnings. This is a clear indication of over-valuation. Time to get real.

I think Piper jaffray's reputation has been damaged by its over bullish notes on Apple. Investment decisions should be made based on hard financial data that properly indicates likely future performance not emotional hype. They come across as a bunch of kids.

As an analyst on my own account, I do think Apple stock is worth buying, but not yet. There is still way too much volatility in the market and we're due for another round of trading shocks that will depress prices. If you want to plough into the markets, there may be better investment choices right now.

None of this takes away from the fact that Apple is a great company, producing great products and with a great future.
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