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RIM sees no slowdown as analyst questions 10M iPhone target - Page 3

post #81 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

dude, now your pulling stuff out of your ass. Where did you get this quote from?

That quote is real--it came from Steve Jobs just before the iPhone launch:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/techinv...enson-qa_N.htm

I'm not sure why only the first Apple mention of "10 million" is worth discussing, when their various follow-up statements don't contradict it, and in fact clarify it
post #82 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by nagromme View Post

That quote is real--it came from Steve Jobs just before the iPhone launch:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/techinv...enson-qa_N.htm

I'm not sure why only the first Apple mention of "10 million" is worth discussing, when their various follow-up statements don't contradict it, and in fact clarify it

Well, these things can be interpeted differently.

Its pretty clear to me what was said from the beginning, and so far they are delivering and/or exceeding expectations.

In any case, who cares if the sell 9 Million or 29 Million, either way they have outsold Windows Mobile, Palm, and ate a significant potion of RIMM to the point where they almost have equal market share. All this in its first 6 months of availability... that screams success and runaway hit to me and anyone else with basic comprehension skills.
post #83 of 155
I believe that the said analyst will be looking like a BIG IDIOT come this time next year! Apple always makes monkeys out of analysts - when will Wall Street ever learn that you should NEVER underestimate APPLE?
post #84 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by M2C View Post

I believe that the said analyst will be looking like a BIG IDIOT come this time next year! Apple always makes monkeys out of analysts - when will Wall Street ever learn that you should NEVER underestimate APPLE?

ditto
post #85 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

dude, now your pulling stuff out of your ass. Where did you get this quote from? I was pretty sure we were arguing what was said in the Keynote in mwsf06, where the still shot was taken from earlier in the thread.

Clearly, SJ is saying that, in the year 2008, Apple will surprass 10M (aka 1% marketshare) in sales, not sell 10M in 08, which they very well might, who knows.

With your quote he is saying 10M is a realistic marker for them to pass in 2008, that 10M seems realistic to Apple.
Your argument is completely baseless and your severely twisting words.

I linked this quote the first time around:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/techinv...enson-qa_N.htm

He doesn't say PASS. He doesn't say SURPASS.

I'm not the one adding words he didn't say. I'm saying "sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year" means sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year. You're the one saying "sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year" means "start selling phones midyear and reach the 10 million mark sometime in the next calendar year". Seriously, what sort of RDF are you living in where a literal interpretation is "twisting words" but putting words in Steve Jobs mouth isn't?

Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year or will it be more?

Jobs: We think 10 million is a realistic goal.

If you care to check the other keynote, Jobs reiterates selling ten million in 2008.
post #86 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

I linked this quote the first time around:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/techinv...enson-qa_N.htm

He doesn't say PASS. He doesn't say SURPASS.

I'm not the one adding words he didn't say. I'm saying "sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year" means sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year. You're the one saying "sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year" means "start selling phones midyear and reach the 10 million mark sometime in the next calendar year". Seriously, what sort of RDF are you living in where a literal interpretation is "twisting words" but putting words in Steve Jobs mouth isn't?

Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year — or will it be more?

Jobs: We think 10 million is a realistic goal.

If you care to check the other keynote, Jobs reiterates selling ten million in 2008.

Dear Lord.

He means, meaning that you should infer, that Apple will surpass 10M in 2008.

Once again, who the hell "sells 3% marketshare in a give year"? Nobody describes it like that. They acchieve a certain marketshare within a specific time frame. Thats what SJ is saying.

...meaning this, Steve: "Yes, we will have sold 10M total in the year 2008, we will have acchieved 1% market share in 2008"
Why is so hard to comprehend?

So now suddenly the argument goes from the video to some obscure quote online?
post #87 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Well that would be great if people weren't unlocking the damn things at an astonishing rate. Does this guy not know how many are bought and unlocked or has he chosen to ignore this fact?

Personally I think it is great that people are unlocking this phone and rejecting Apples excessive desire for money. People have a right to stand up to unbridled greed and lets face it if these numbers are accurate Apple is making way to much money off this phone.
Quote:
How would Apple make any money on unlocked phones on carriers that don't share revenue with them if they lowered the price much more?

Frankly I don't want to see Apple lower the price, I simply want to be able to hook up to the carrier of my choice at the lowest cost possible. This idea of paying Apple a monthly fee on something I supposedly bought out right is just stupid. It is one thing about the iPhone that just rubs me the wrong way.

Dave
post #88 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by csimmons View Post

I love reading stuff like this, because it really does point out the fundamental difference between Apple and its competitors with regard to business psychology. Most people still don't get the fact that Apple succeeds because their products are usability driven, NOT feature driven something that is still lost on many people, including the above poster.

What good does a product with tons of features do if the user experience is sub par? The iPhone succeeds because it implements the features that it has really, really well. Why else does it have the highest customer satisfaction ratings of any cell phone EVER? Anybody who has honestly compared WM6, Linux and Symbian-based smartphones with the the iPhone knows that the iPhone wins hands down in terms of useability. How the poster above can so easily dismiss that is very short sighted in my opinion. Stuff like 5MP cameras on a phone is more marketing hype than anything else, and 3G is not as widely available in the USA - the iPhone's main market - as it is in Europe and Asia, but a 3G iPhone is coming, so the iPhone's lack of 3G is a moot point.

It's very easy to debunk many more of the points the above post tries to make, so I won't go there. What I will say is: if Nokia and SE's implementation of all these technologies is so superior to the iPhone's, then why are those two companies trying so hard to recreate (read: copy) the iPhone in their forthcoming products?

Really. Usability driven. I guess Apple got carried away with all those FEATURES they put in Leopard. Maybe all those features confuse you. Who knows. Personally I like to have the ability to send one SMS to more than one person at a time or the ability to forward an SMS. No one said that the iPhone is subpar in its usability or functionality, but it is short on some of the features that some power users deem essential. To dismiss these wants is nothing less than myopathy. Apple is a master as usability, and in delivering great features, however in my opinion I feel they rushed the iPhone and fell short of the mark. Maybe they were wetting everyones appetite and will deliver the goods in the next iPhone incarnation.

Good thing that 5MP cameras are just marketing hype. Better tell Nokia, SE, Samsung and the rest to save their investment and go the route of a tried and true 2MP camera just like the iPhone. Too bad many people actually buy phones for features. It's also easy to say something is moot when this moot item happens to be lacking. I don't have a bazillion dollars so money is moot.

Please debunk the fact that Nokia and SE have had TS UI for several years on several different products. They did not have the MT technology that Apple implemented in the iPhone and iPod Touch but they did have the touch screens. So I guess Apple took a superior technology and created a much better implementation, and bundled it with a winning eco-system. Smart move on their part. The market is ripe for this technology and all interested parties will deliver. While the iPhone may have been launched in the US market first, it is not the only market. Finland had the chance to have the iPhone with Sonera but Sonera declined because the iPhone lacked 3G which all phones must have if they are to be bundled with a contract. A wasted opportunity on a small but incredibly tech-savvy market.
post #89 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

He means, meaning that you should infer, that Apple will surpass 10M in 2008.

Same old, same old. "He didn't say that...but you should INFER it."

If that's what he meant, why didn't he come out and say "Apple will surpass 10M in 2008"? Well, why?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

Once again, who the hell "sells 3% marketshare in a give year"? Nobody describes it like that. They acchieve a certain marketshare within a specific time frame. Thats what SJ is saying.

But that's not what he said. Again, you're insisting that he said one thing but meant another. And your repeated "but nobody says that!" just makes it seem like you're in denial that he actually meant what he said.


Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

...meaning this, Steve: "Yes, we will have sold 10M total in the year 2008, we will have acchieved 1% market share in 2008"

Again, again, again. He said one thing, but you insist on interpreting his statement into different words. He could have said "we will have sold 10M total in the year 2008". But he didn't. And yet you insist he meant something else, and not what he actually said.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

Why is so hard to comprehend?

Until you've demonstrated that you actually understand what Jobs said, you might want to lay off the rhetoric.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

So now suddenly the argument goes from the video to some obscure quote online?

Huh? What's the problem? The keynote supports what I said, I'm happy to keep talking about it. I just figured another source might clear it up for you, and it seems crystal clear to me.

What exactly is your objection to the USA today quote? Other than it demonstrates that your "interpretation" is wrong?
post #90 of 155
To follow up, in the Q4 2007 conference call, it is reiterated at the 27 minute mark.

"I would reiterate that we're very confident with shipping ten million in the calendar year of next year"
post #91 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by the cool gut View Post

Well golly, the iPhone has not even been out a year yet - if you think Apple is not going to borrow from it's iPod playbook then your an idiot.

Good point.

But if you don't know the difference between "your" and "you're," then you're...
post #92 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

One last time, Jobs is saying CLEARLY that Apple will have sold 10M iPhones and acchieved 1% marketshare by the end of the calendar year 2008. Why can't you comprehend that simple & clear fact? Its beyond me.

It's pretty amazing that you can keep insisting Jobs said "X" when he simply didn't say that.

Really, if he meant "Apple will have sold 10M iPhones", why didn't he just say "Apple will have sold 10M iPhones"? Is that such a hard question to answer?
post #93 of 155
There are maybe 500,000,000 English speakers in the world. That means you're going to get 500,000,000 different perceptions of every sentence. So one more won't hurt!

Quote:
Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year or will it be more?

Jobs: We think 10 million is a realistic goal.

To me, the reason they specified "calendar year" instead of "first year" is that the first year ended on December 31, 2007. The first calendar year after introduction ends on June 29, 2008. Steve Jobs says "10 Million in 2008. This is contradictory; live with it! Perfection is for the Gods!

All of this is totally irrelevant, anyway. If Apple introduces a 3G iPhone in June and that causes increased sales, and they sell 15,000,000 all told in the year 2008, then the "analysts" and half the people on this forum will complain that that's not the same phone, that's cheating, wah, wah, wah! There's no stopping a determined Apple-basher, and there's no point in trying. To me, any product that people all over the world are willing to pay a large premium for, even when that means they can't use a lot of its unique features, has to be called a success, and all of the obsessive numbers-analysis in the world can't turn it into a failure.
post #94 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatesbasher View Post

The first calendar year after introduction ends on June 29, 2008.

A calendar year, by definition, is from January 1 to December 31. You can look it up in your mac dictionary if you don't believe me.

calendar year
noun
see year (sense 2).

year |yi(ə)r| |jɪ(ə)r| |jɪə| |jəː|
noun
1 the time taken by a planet to make one revolution around the sun.
2 (also calendar year or civil year) the period of 365 days (or 366 days in leap years) starting from the first of January, used for reckoning time in ordinary affairs.
post #95 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Personally I think it is great that people are unlocking this phone and rejecting Apples excessive desire for money. People have a right to stand up to unbridled greed and lets face it if these numbers are accurate Apple is making way to much money off this phone.


Frankly I don't want to see Apple lower the price, I simply want to be able to hook up to the carrier of my choice at the lowest cost possible. This idea of paying Apple a monthly fee on something I supposedly bought out right is just stupid. It is one thing about the iPhone that just rubs me the wrong way.

Dave

Isn't the object of Apple to make money, who are you to decide how much money they can make..
post #96 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

Nope, that's wrong, and you continue to spread this misinformation.

Jobs's forcast was "10 million IN 2008". Not by the end of 2008. IN.

If you're so sure he said 10 million by the end of 2008, find a direct quote from Jobs. You won't find it.

Actually, no.

Jobs said they hoped to get 1% market share "in 2008." That 1% market share was roughly equated to 10 million units. Market share is cumulative so the statement should rightly be understood as 10 million units "in use" by the close of 2008.



So logically, that would mean 10 million units "in use" "in 2008." The original 4 million are included.

Even if you take issue with the semantics, it's pretty clear that if Apple does in fact, hit the 1% market share mark and does have 10 million "in use" by the end of 2008, that they will take credit for hitting their target and no one will significantly argue with them on it. So why argue about it now?

10 million units in a year and a half of sales of a single model is outrageously good news IMO.
In Windows, a window can be a document, it can be an application, or it can be a window that contains other documents or applications. Theres just no consistency. Its just a big grab bag of monkey...
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In Windows, a window can be a document, it can be an application, or it can be a window that contains other documents or applications. Theres just no consistency. Its just a big grab bag of monkey...
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post #97 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatesbasher View Post

There are maybe 500,000,000 English speakers in the world. That means you're going to get 500,000,000 different perceptions of every sentence. So one more won't hurt!



To me, the reason they specified "calendar year" instead of "first year" is that the first year ended on December 31, 2007. The first calendar year after introduction ends on June 29, 2008. Steve Jobs says "10 Million in 2008. This is contradictory; live with it! Perfection is for the Gods!

All of this is totally irrelevant, anyway. If Apple introduces a 3G iPhone in June and that causes increased sales, and they sell 15,000,000 all told in the year 2008, then the "analysts" and half the people on this forum will complain that that's not the same phone, that's cheating, wah, wah, wah! There's no stopping a determined Apple-basher, and there's no point in trying. To me, any product that people all over the world are willing to pay a large premium for, even when that means they can't use a lot of its unique features, has to be called a success, and all of the obsessive numbers-analysis in the world can't turn it into a failure.

Well said, whatever Apple sell it won't be enough for them.
post #98 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

Dude. I'm removing myself from this thread and heading as we speak to the local zoo. At least one can be more entertained there by the incessant chattering of the chimps than some of meaningless and baseless arguments I see here.

At least chimpscan respond to stimuli instead of repeating nonesense like a drone.

One last time, Jobs is saying CLEARLY that Apple will have sold 10M iPhones and acchieved 1% marketshare by the end of the calendar year 2008. Why can't you comprehend that simple & clear fact? Its beyond me.

I gotta go, this sack of bananas is getting heavy.

An interesting anecdote:

"Market share" and "installed base" are NOT the same thing.

Installed base, in this case, would be the count of every cellular telephone that has ever been sold and is still on the air today.

Market share, on the other hand, is the breakdown of all new cellular telephones being sold over a given period of time.

The total number of cell phones sold in 2008 has been estimated at 1.25 billion units. That is 1.25 billion brand new cell phones being bought in the year 2008 alone, without counting any of the installed base of existing cell phones that were sold from the years infinity BC to 2007 AD, inclusive.

To have a market share of 1% in 2008, 1 out of every 100 of cell phones that were sold in the year 2008 must be iPhones.

[edit] -infinity BC would actually be in the future. oops. [/edit]
post #99 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post

Jobs said they hoped to get 1% market share "in 2008." That 1% market share was roughly equated to 10 million units. Market share is cumulative so the statement should rightly be understood as 10 million units "in use" by the close of 2008.

If the 10M were intended to be cumulative, then the total number would be as well. Meaning that the total number of phones in use would be multiple billions, and that 10M would be far less than one percent. It's pretty straightforward, Jobs said that about a billion phones sell in one year, and that if you sell 10M phones in one year, you have 1% of total sales. Apple hopes to do just that in 2008.
post #100 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Multi-Touch is not simply a better implementation of touch screens. It has had an entirely different research and development path dating back to 1982. Apple bought FingerWorks a company that was first to successfully develop and market multi-touch keyboards. Apple owns the Fingerworks intellectual property and the patents.

Sorry for the delay TenoBell. Thanks for the info. So, cool Apple owns the IPR.
post #101 of 155
When has Apple's sales targets been considered "optimistic?" NEVER, at least not since the second coming of the Jobs. They have always been conservative. What is not taken into account is in the next 10 months some announcement about new countries and new products. To believe that these things are not know by the company when they make predictions shows how little this "analyst" knows about business. I wouldn't compare Rim's statement of better then expected sales units while reaffirming the SAME revenue. This clearly means they are selling some Blackberries at or below cost. The only reason to do this? They a clearly threatened by Apple's iPhone!! If I were listening to someone about Apple's business it would be Steve Jobs NOT Toni Sacconaghi. Check and see how many of these "Analysts" buy the stock they slam after it has a correction. Also, check the analysts history the one that consistently comes closest is Gene Munster at Piper Jafferies, and he is not backing away from his 250 price target!!!
post #102 of 155
A few quick observations.

1. Without numbers about market growth, how does any of this info mean anything? If RIM's sales grew 15% and the market grew 30%, for example, that wouldn't be good news at all. Anyone know what the growth in this particular market is? Context would be nice.

2. Apple rarely does sales predictions (in fact, I can't recall any such move in their history) so I'm betting that they've got their strategy very carefully mapped out. I bet there are a couple of "worst case scenario" moves up their sleeve. I suspect the price drop shortly after intro was one, as a matter of fact.

3. Why does the article mention RIM's lower cost offerings? I thought the iPhone was considered a competitor in the pricier smart phone market. What am I missing here? What sense does it makes to compare sales of a $99 device to the iPhone? Apple likely makes a whole lot more off the sale of an iPhone compared to the sales of any low-cost competitor's product. (This is not unlike their position in the computer market where they sell fewer machines than most PC makers but make more per sale.)

BTW, I'm not an Apple apologist, but this information seems to have been presented in an attempt to slant things against Apple. Some "analyst" out there have a bone to pick?
post #103 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

A calendar year, by definition, is from January 1 to December 31. You can look it up in your mac dictionary if you don't believe me.

calendar year
noun
see year (sense 2).

year |yi(?)r| |j?(?)r| |j??| |j??|
noun
1 the time taken by a planet to make one revolution around the sun.
2 (also calendar year or civil year) the period of 365 days (or 366 days in leap years) starting from the first of January, used for reckoning time in ordinary affairs.

By this definition, the first "calendar year" in which the iPhone was available was 2007. Does anybody think Jobs was predicting 10,000,000 by the end of 2007? Not everybody has (one particular) dictionary stored in their head, and most people don't assume their readers have (one particular) dictionary stored in their heads. Maybe the interviewer's question was carelessly worded; if that's the case, there's no point in arguing about it. If the question was carefully worded, however, what's more important is what they did not ask. They did not ask: "...in the first year..." because that could be interpreted as "by the end of this year. They did not ask: "in calendar 2008...." That would have meant from 1/1-12/31 2008. One viable interpretation would be that a calendar year means "from this date to the same date next year." I think it's entirely possible that the interviewer meant to ask how many iPhones they planned to sell by June 29, 2008, and Steve Jobs heard "in calendar 2008" and answered that. Interviewers and interviewees talk past each other all the time. All this goes to show is how pointless this whole argument is, as no matter how it turns out, somebody will be able to say it didn't meet its goal. The iPhone is a successful product, but some people just will not allow it to be, so they have to come up with some reason why it's not!
post #104 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post

Actually, no.

Jobs said they hoped to get 1% market share "in 2008." That 1% market share was roughly equated to 10 million units. Market share is cumulative so the statement should rightly be understood as 10 million units "in use" by the close of 2008.



So logically, that would mean 10 million units "in use" "in 2008." The original 4 million are included.

I actually watched the Keynote on the Apple website, and this is what Stevo said:

"If you just get 1% market share, you are going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we are going to try and do in 2008, our first full year in the market - is grab 1% of the market and go from there. So we're going to enter a very competitive market - a lot of players - we think we're going to have the best product in the world - and we're going to go for it see if we can get 1% market share, 10 million units in 2008 and go from there."

It was made pretty clear that it was just for 2008 - market share is not the same as installed base, which would be accumilative.

Still not convinced? HEHE - I didn't think so, maybe this will put it over the top:

Apple F1Q07 (Qtr End 12/30/06) Earnings Call Transcript

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2443...all-transcript

Quote:
Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray

Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.

Tim Cook

Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.

There is no denying it - 10 million units Calendar 2008 (Jan 1, 2008 > Dec 31, 2008) is their target.

Regardless, I feel this is possible, here is an article on it over at ARS:

http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...phones-in-2008
post #105 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatesbasher View Post

By this definition, the first "calendar year" in which the iPhone was available was 2007. Does anybody think Jobs was predicting 10,000,000 by the end of 2007? Not everybody has (one particular) dictionary stored in their head, and most people don't assume their readers have (one particular) dictionary stored in their heads. Maybe the interviewer's question was carelessly worded; if that's the case, there's no point in arguing about it. If the question was carefully worded, however, what's more important is what they did not ask. They did not ask: "...in the first year..." because that could be interpreted as "by the end of this year. They did not ask: "in calendar 2008...." That would have meant from 1/1-12/31 2008. One viable interpretation would be that a calendar year means "from this date to the same date next year." I think it's entirely possible that the interviewer meant to ask how many iPhones they planned to sell by June 29, 2008, and Steve Jobs heard "in calendar 2008" and answered that.

The USA today question was a followup to the keynote, where Jobs said 10M in 2008. If their question was worded wrong, Jobs would have corrected it, saying he meant 10M in the first year of sales, 10M by the end of 2008, 10M mark some time in 2008. But he didn't.

The guy asking the questions is a staff tech columnist for their financial section.

Jobs has participated in probably dozens of conference calls, during which all participants are extremely careful about their wording.

I can't imagine that either of them would be ignorant of what a term as basic as "calendar year" means. And Jobs has made these same comments on at least three or four occasions, even if he screwed it up once he has had multiple opportunities to clarify, yet each time he has reiterated the same thing.


Cool gut, thanks for yet another source clarifying it yet again. I just don't get why people are so insistent on this, regardless of how many direct quotes contradict them.
post #106 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

Dude. I'm removing myself from this thread and heading as we speak to the local zoo. At least one can be more entertained there by the incessant chattering of the chimps than some of meaningless and baseless arguments I see here.

At least chimpscan respond to stimuli instead of repeating nonesense like a drone.

[Dude] Why get so riled up? You're just going to get yourself banned. Everyone is agreeing Apple will ship a boat load of iPhones, now we're just speculating on how big the boat is 'going' to be. No one knows, it is all just an educated guess at this point.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #107 of 155
I hope Apple disappoints them all and exeeds the goal. In the end, if Apple only sold 8 million phones that would be huge achievement. The analysts will see it as a failure though
post #108 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

I can't imagine that either of them would be ignorant of what a term as basic as "calendar year" means.

Again, by that definition, the first calendar year for the iPhone was 2007, but nobody thinks they meant that. I didn't listen to the keynote, I have no opinion on what he actually said or meant to say, or what USA Today asked or meant to ask, or when Apple has to sell 10 million phones by to meet which prediction. My only point was one of vocabulary, and that using tortured linguistic analysis to try to make the iPhone less than successful, when people all over the world are paying up to $1000 to have a not-fully-functional example just reveals an anti-Apple bias that there is no point in trying to argue away, because it won't go away.
post #109 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post

Actually, no.

Jobs said they hoped to get 1% market share "in 2008." That 1% market share was roughly equated to 10 million units. Market share is cumulative so the statement should rightly be understood as 10 million units "in use" by the close of 2008.



So logically, that would mean 10 million units "in use" "in 2008." The original 4 million are included.

Even if you take issue with the semantics, it's pretty clear that if Apple does in fact, hit the 1% market share mark and does have 10 million "in use" by the end of 2008, that they will take credit for hitting their target and no one will significantly argue with them on it. So why argue about it now?

10 million units in a year and a half of sales of a single model is outrageously good news IMO.

ditto!
post #110 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatesbasher View Post

Again, by that definition, the first calendar year for the iPhone was 2007, but nobody thinks they meant that. I didn't listen to the keynote, I have no opinion on what he actually said or meant to say, or what USA Today asked or meant to ask, or when Apple has to sell 10 million phones by to meet which prediction.

The USA Today question was a followup to what Jobs said in the keynote:

"If you just get 1% market share, you are going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we are going to try and do in 2008, our first full year in the market - is grab 1% of the market and go from there. So we're going to enter a very competitive market - a lot of players - we think we're going to have the best product in the world - and we're going to go for it see if we can get 1% market share, 10 million units in 2008 and go from there."

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post

ditto!

So I guess you missed this...

Quote:
Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray

Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.

Tim Cook

Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.
post #111 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatesbasher View Post

By this definition, the first "calendar year" in which the iPhone was available was 2007. Does anybody think Jobs was predicting 10,000,000 by the end of 2007? Not everybody has (one particular) dictionary stored in their head, and most people don't assume their readers have (one particular) dictionary stored in their heads. Maybe the interviewer's question was carelessly worded; if that's the case, there's no point in arguing about it. If the question was carefully worded, however, what's more important is what they did not ask. They did not ask: "...in the first year..." because that could be interpreted as "by the end of this year. They did not ask: "in calendar 2008...." That would have meant from 1/1-12/31 2008. One viable interpretation would be that a calendar year means "from this date to the same date next year." I think it's entirely possible that the interviewer meant to ask how many iPhones they planned to sell by June 29, 2008, and Steve Jobs heard "in calendar 2008" and answered that. Interviewers and interviewees talk past each other all the time. All this goes to show is how pointless this whole argument is, as no matter how it turns out, somebody will be able to say it didn't meet its goal. The iPhone is a successful product, but some people just will not allow it to be, so they have to come up with some reason why it's not!

Thank You, people are just looking for ways to call the phone a failure, if why would people be going out of their way to unlock phones that aren't popular. Look how much attention the iphone gets in the media, it was even shown during the grammys, the phone is popular no matter how much some people don't want it to be.
post #112 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adjei View Post

Thank You, people are just looking for ways to call the phone a failure, if why would people be going out of their way to unlock phones that aren't popular. Look how much attention the iphone gets in the media, it was even shown during the grammys, the phone is popular no matter how much some people don't want it to be.

Just in case you missed it - Tim Cook is the Chief Operating Officer at Apple. He stated that 10 million units is for the 2008 calendar year. Apple still believes it can reach this target. No one is doubting that the iPhone is amazing, that it turned the industry on it's head. There are some who are skeptical of Apple's pricing strategy, and that it will interfere with their goal. Recessionary talk will also weight on the iPhone, but one thing is clear - Apple is aiming for 10 million iPhone sales in 2008. Clearly this is a goal and if they miss that target that doesn't mean the iPhone is a peice of shit or a failure.
post #113 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by the cool gut View Post

Clearly this is a goal and if they miss that target that doesn't mean the iPhone is a peice of shit or a failure.

Needless to say, I agree with you. But if you think some of the posters on this forum won't say just exactly that, you're fooling yourself.
post #114 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatesbasher View Post

Needless to say, I agree with you. But if you think some of the posters on this forum won't say just exactly that, you're fooling yourself.

Absolutely. But there will always be people on the extremes who will praise or bash no matter what. Some would call it a hit even if it never sold 100k, and others would call it a flop even if it sold 100M.
post #115 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by the cool gut View Post

Just in case you missed it - Tim Cook is the Chief Operating Officer at Apple. He stated that 10 million units is for the 2008 calendar year. Apple still believes it can reach this target. No one is doubting that the iPhone is amazing, that it turned the industry on it's head. There are some who are skeptical of Apple's pricing strategy, and that it will interfere with their goal. Recessionary talk will also weight on the iPhone, but one thing is clear - Apple is aiming for 10 million iPhone sales in 2008. Clearly this is a goal and if they miss that target that doesn't mean the iPhone is a peice of shit or a failure.

I know that is their target and if they are still sticking by it, they must be confident that they can meet it or exceed it but what's up with all these doomsday talk ?
post #116 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

Nope, that's wrong, and you continue to spread this misinformation.

Jobs's forcast was "10 million IN 2008". Not by the end of 2008. IN.

If you're so sure he said 10 million by the end of 2008, find a direct quote from Jobs. You won't find it.

You're confusing 'in' with 'within' and assuming the boundaries are January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2008.

Another way of looking at it...
If someone were to tell you they turn x years old in 2009 would you assume that they somehow aged x-many years within that one year or that they reach that number in that year?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #117 of 155
[QUOTE=minderbinder;1219991]Did you even read the rest of this thread?

There's a screenshot from the keynote, plus links to two videos of the keynote with the times where jobs says "10M in 2008".

Please look at these - are you saying I'm hearing wrong and he says "by the end of"?

So that's three sources direct from Jobs.

Here's another:
"Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year or will it be more?

Oh and another two.

"Apple's self set goal is 10 million by the end of 2008."
http://apple-iphone-world.blogspot.c...years-end.html

"Apple "remains very confident" that they will ship 10 million handsets by the end of 2008 as originally stated"
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/24/a...-probably-not/

Are you saying all these sites got it wrong? I checked this once and I confirmed to my mind it was "by the end of 2008", but can't find the source now. Maybe I will look again someday.
post #118 of 155
[QUOTE=BushHater;1220346]
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

Did you even read the rest of this thread?

There's a screenshot from the keynote, plus links to two videos of the keynote with the times where jobs says "10M in 2008".

Please look at these - are you saying I'm hearing wrong and he says "by the end of"?

So that's three sources direct from Jobs.

Here's another:
"Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year — or will it be more?

Oh and another two.

"Apple's self set goal is 10 million by the end of 2008."
http://apple-iphone-world.blogspot.c...years-end.html

"Apple "remains very confident" that they will ship 10 million handsets by the end of 2008 as originally stated"
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/24/a...-probably-not/

Are you saying all these sites got it wrong? I checked this once and I confirmed to my mind it was "by the end of 2008", but can't find the source now. Maybe I will look again someday.

Okay, looks good.

Of course, 10 million sold between launch date and the end of 2008 that does not constitute a 1% market share. A 1% market share requires that 1% of every new phone being bought over that time frame must have been an iPhone. They haven't reached that point yet.

So what we've got here is 2 conflicting claims of Apple's sales target - some are claiming that Apple was aiming for a 1% market share, and others are claiming that Apple was aiming for 10 million units sold overall.

Now I'm curious to learn if Apple ever actually made the first claim, about 1% market share goal, at all. And if so, when did they change their story to the 10 million total shipped goal? One does not imply the other.

That is to say, if they exactly meet their goal of 10 million units sold between the initial launch date and the end of 2008, they they will still be about 7.5 million units short of the other goal (a 1% market share over that same time period).

Mind you, they might still hope to have built up to a 1% market share by the time the end of 2008 rolls along, despite having less than 1% of total sales for the entire year. For example, maybe they plan on selling a seasonally adjusted 1.04 million iPhones in the month of December 2008 alone, which would constitute a 1% share of December 2008's seasonally adjusted estimate for the total market of cell phones.
post #119 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

You're confusing 'in' with 'within' and assuming the boundaries are January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2008.

I'm not confusing anything.

Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray

Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.

Tim Cook

Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year.


I don't see how you could possibly interpret "10 million units across the calendar year" as hitting the 10 million mark during that year.

[QUOTE=BushHater;1220346]
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

Are you saying all these sites got it wrong? I checked this once and I confirmed to my mind it was "by the end of 2008", but can't find the source now. Maybe I will look again someday.

Yep, I'm saying those sites got it wrong. Neither of them has a direct quote from an apple person, they both just paraphrase, and one is just a blog. Why would those sources be more trustworthy than direct quotes from two apple keynotes and a conference call? It looks like one news source botched this story, and then a bunch of other places just repeated their mistake instead of actually taking a minute to check their facts (AI has done this in the past although thankfully they got it right this time).

Quote:
Originally Posted by lfmorrison View Post

So what we've got here is 2 conflicting claims of Apple's sales target - some are claiming that Apple was aiming for a 1% market share, and others are claiming that Apple was aiming for 10 million units sold overall.

Now I'm curious to learn if Apple ever actually made the first claim, about 1% market share goal, at all. And if so, when did they change their story to the 10 million total shipped goal? One does not imply the other.

Apple didn't claim 1% of installed base, their stated goal was 1% of the 1 billion phones they estimated to be sold in 2008, or selling 10 million in 2008.

You can see it here, start about 3.5 minutes in.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=D-X_nLCz6Hc&feature=related
post #120 of 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

Apple didn't claim 1% of installed base, their stated goal was 1% of the 1 billion phones they estimated to be sold in 2008, or selling 10 million in 2008.

You can see it here, start about 3.5 minutes in.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=D-X_nLCz6Hc&feature=related

Except that the 1 billion cell phone numbers come from 2006.

Last year, the worldwide market for cell phone grew to 1.1 billion units. And this year, it will be about 1.2 to 1.25 billion units.
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