First the source of the dailytech hit piece;January 2008 - 4 sources say “globally cooler” in the past 12 months
Wow, four sites have temperature data that agree with each other.
Oh, and it's nice that this source has links to the underlying data, makes my job really easy!
So I took the HadCRUT3 data set (easiest to import into Excel), the time series goes back to January 1850 (as does the GISS data set), N (data points) = 1897.
I then took a 12-month lag window of the entire
data set (reducing N by 12 to 1885) and sorted in ascending order of temperature data, turns out that 16 events exceed this one, so that this is approximately a 3 sigma event. Cool!
The entire 12-month lag window data set is, of course, randomly distributed with each month having 157 points (one month had 158 since 1885 isn't divisible by 12)
I then dusted of my extreme value theory
tool box to take a closer look at the data set, by windowing the data to exclude the middle 83.3 (or 5/6) percent (i. e. only including the lowest 8.33 (or 1/12) percent and the highest 8.33 (or 1/12) percent). Thus, the reduced data set consisted of 314 extreme events.
The distribution of these extreme events had the following monthly distribution;
AUG = 10
SEP = 11
OCT = 15
NOV = 28
DEC = 43
JAN = 55
FEB = 48
MAR = 34
APR = 25
MAY = 22
JUN = 11
JUL = 12
So what does the above distribution indicate?
Well, that year-to-year extremes are much more likely to occur in the winter than in the summer, that the extremes are not randomly distributed, and that the peak of the distribution is centered on the DEC-FEB timeframe (n = 146), and the trough of the distribution is centered on the JUN-AUG timeframe (n = 33).
D'oh! In other words, winters exhibit ~ 4.4 times the variability as do summers for temperature extremes.
We now have conclusive proof that summers are hot and have less variability of extreme events, and that the winters are cold and have greater variability of extreme events.
As if we didn't already know this.
Hey SDW10000BC do you have any more interesting AGW contrarian links that I can pick apart?
And while your looking, here's a link for you;2007 Was Tied as Earth's Second-Warmest Year
Climatologists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City have found that 2007 tied with 1998 for Earth's second warmest year in a century.