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Report: 40 percent of holiday iPod sales went to first-time buyers

post #1 of 8
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Following a meeting with Apple chief operating officer Tim Cook earlier this week, investment bank Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating on shares of the electronics maker, saying the company's industry leading product cycles should help it overcome softer seasonality and sets the stock up for s strong second half.

"Even with the recent strength in all of Appleā€™s product lines, there continues to be significant opportunities in all three [of its business] segments," analyst David Bailey wrote in the first of two research notes released to clients.

Specifically, he noted that even though the company's personal computer business has outpaced the industry for 5-6 quarters in a row, Macs still account just 3 percent of the global PC market and thus are far from achieving their ultimate potential in the market.

"Our estimate is for 25 percent unit growth in 2008," he said.

Meanwhile, the analyst noted that while iPod unit growth is clearly declining, improving average selling prices (ASPs) from a positive mix of iPod touch models should enable the company to drive ongoing revenue growth for the foreseeable future.

Of interest, Bailey said the iPod touch is enabling the iPod to reach new customer segments, with more than 40 percent of iPod purchases during the December quarter coming from consumers who've never owned an iPod before, reinforcing his belief that the digital players have a ways to go before reaching their true saturation point.

In a second report, the Goldman Sachs analyst weighed in with his thoughts on the iPhone, noting that Apple remains confident that it's on track to meet its 10 million iPhone unit sales target for calendar 2008 and.

"While we expect those shipments to be more backed-loaded, we continue to look for 11 million units for the year," he wrote. "We remain a buyer of Apple shares as Apple has the fundamental and valuation underpinnings which should allow the stock to outperform on an absolute and relative basis longer-term."
post #2 of 8
Those 40% were probably people who did not know what else to give on xmas

Honestly it strikes me that quite a lot of volume came from lower end models (shuffle), which means that the iPod has now replaced the tie or a pair of socks as the 'did not know what else to get you but I luv'ya' presents
post #3 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by freelander51 View Post

Those 40% were probably people who did not know what else to give on xmas

Honestly it strikes me that quite a lot of volume came from lower end models (shuffle), which means that the iPod has now replaced the tie or a pair of socks as the 'did not know what else to get you but I luv'ya' presents

I think Apple is hoping to take a page from Nintendo's Wii book by bringing in more new customers who wouldn't necessarily consider their products.

I've been a Windows user for years and have had little interaction with Apple products until recently. Indeed, as my job activity now involves a great deal more traveling, I decided to buy a 3rd generation iPod nano to keep me company. And that's where it all started.

I think most people will agree that Vista is not the OS X killer it was meant to be. Indeed, many consider Vista a disappointment as did I. And that's one of the things that made me seriously take a look OS X.

For example, making and editing PDFs is clunky in Windows and forces you to purchase a PDF creation authoring/creation tool. With OS X, it's all integrated, fast and easy to preview.

As soon as I started to appreciate the ease-of-use and interoperability of all Apple's products, it turned my opinion from "No," to "Why not?".

Now it's a "Will." I ordered by new Penryn/Santa Rosa MBP a couple of days ago.

YipYipYipee
post #4 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by YipYipYipee View Post


Now it's a "Will." I ordered by new Penryn/Santa Rosa MBP a couple of days ago.

YipYipYipee

Welcome to the clan!
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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post #5 of 8
That means 60% were buying another or upgrading. Sounds like market saturation to me (as far as limited growth potential).

I have three iPods. I keep my 3G 40GB around because it holds everything. But I've got a mini and an iPhone. Wife has a shuffle and a 30GB 3G. They all work (although the 3Gs have had a few batteries replaced).
post #6 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post

That means 60% were buying another or upgrading. Sounds like market saturation to me (as far as limited growth potential).

The portable media player market is reaching a saturation point, or at least, growth slowing down. However, the 40%/60% numbers don't really help reinforce the notion of market saturation. For example, I think Apple's Mac buyer figures are like that, 40-50% new users, maybe 50%-60% repeat buyers, and there is so far still absolutely no sign of a slowdown in Mac growth, it's been 30-40% Y-O-Y every quarter for the last several years. Back in the mid-'90's, you did see saturation and no growth, and I think 95%+ Macs were sold to existing Mac owners.
post #7 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

The portable media player market is reaching a saturation point, or at least, growth slowing down. However, the 40%/60% numbers don't really help reinforce the notion of market saturation. For example, I think Apple's Mac buyer figures are like that, 40-50% new users, maybe 50%-60% repeat buyers, and there is so far still absolutely no sign of a slowdown in Mac growth, it's been 30-40% Y-O-Y every quarter for the last several years. Back in the mid-'90's, you did see saturation and no growth, and I think 95%+ Macs were sold to existing Mac owners.

Not sure if you're numbers are absolutely correct, but I would certainly agree with the sentiment. Speaking of which, by new MacBook Pro (MBP) is back-ordered.

Of course, from another perspective that's great news for Apple and possibly its shareholders, who fear there will be less demand for their products due to U.S. economic uncertainty.

I tried ordering a MBP through Amazon, in order to take advantage of the $150 rebate, free shipping and no sales tax, but the estimated delivery date was April 29th!

YipYipYipee
post #8 of 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Welcome to the clan!

Thanks. Indeed, I look forward to contributing to the AppleInsider discussion board via my new MacBook Pro (MB) keyboard... that is when it gets here. They're already back-ordered!

Of course, you can't just stop with just the MBP. I've ordered a 4GB Kingston Memory Kit, a Speck See-Thru Hardshell Case, VMWare Fusion and a Western Digital My Book Studio Edition 1TB external drive.

Now I'm checking out software purchases like Apple iWork and Coriolis System iDefrag.

I wrote in another discussion my disappointment in Vista. Looks like the press are agreeing. Check out this ComputerWorld op-ed:

http://www.computerworld.com/action/...intsrc=kc_feat

YipYipYipee
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