Originally Posted by JeffDM
Contrary to what you said, you just described what market share means. The market share in the US for Feb '08 is 14%. It's the percentage of what a company sold in a given time over how many were sold total. If you mean to say that they don't have 14% installed base, that's something different from market share.
Even if that was an outlier, Apple's market share and installed base has been steadily growing very quickly for the past four or so years.
The problem Jeff, is that we don't know if this is close to the actual marketshare, as it's only retail. so, what would the actual marketshare be? Probably closer to 7%, possibly 8%. Im would be thrilled if itwere 9%.
But, this doesn't include most of Dell's sales, or the sales of any other large online company. Even though Apple sells a fair amount of their computers online themselves, or through others, it's not even close in percentage to what Dell does, which is likely 95% of their sales right now.
The only think that I'n really interested in is the 60% overall rise from las year, and the breakdown between the portable, and desktop models. Both of those were encouraging.
But, even there, we have to wonder what happened last month. I don't remember what the rise was in January, but this is much higher. Now, we have to see if it holds up for March.
This is important. If it drops to where it was in January, then it was an anomaly. If it holds up for March, then it could be very important.
Over the past few years, we have seen Apple's quarterly sales go from about a 5% rise per quarter (YoY), to about a 15%, to about 25%, to about 33%, to 40%, and now, possibly 55 to 65%, depending on what the actual figures were.
If March stays at that level, we then have to look at April. If Apple maintains this level for three months, then we can have some reason to think their sales rise is now 60% quarter to quarter YoY. That would be a new milestone.
Marketshare will take care of itself. We also don't know what the 14% means because it depends on how they are accounting for the PC market as a whole. That's not always easy to acertain without reding the actual report.
Some studies consider the overall PC market with Apple included. Others don't include Apple's sales. So that gives us a variation.
How does this report account for that? If Apple's numbers are also ther for the industry, it make those figures sightly higher than they would be without Apple's numbers. In a way, Apple's numbers would be competing with itself partly.
Without knowing that, the 14% could actually be 12% or 16%. So, thats another variable we don't know.