My point from the very beginning was just that flash is a really bad product, from a company that has lost it's ability to upgrade it, and that Jobs took the position it wasn't needed to launch the iPhone. He was right. He says it's a performance problem, and won't go on the phone as a performance problem.
I disagree with your first two points (really bad product / lost its ability to be upgraded), but I agree with you on your last point (not necessary for the iPhone launch).
If Flash is such a poor product and cannot be upgraded:1.) Why does the current version (Flash Player 9) enjoy such market worldwide ubiquity?
95% of all people who browse the web have it installed: Flash Player version penetration.2.) Why would Adobe have merged with Macromedia?
Removing a competing creative software company is one thing, but Flash was the obvious prize here. Dreamweaver ran a somewhat distant 2nd in their priorities and so on. Livemotion (SVG) wasn't gaining as much traction on the web as they had hoped and this was Adobe's opportunity to buy that market-share outright. In addition, Flash lite and Flash Paper could have been a threat to elements of Adobe's strategy if Macromedia were to have gotten it together.3.) Why would Adobe acquire a product that had no future beyond it's (then) current capability?
This makes absolutely no sense. Flash still has a potentially promising future ahead of it. Doing motion work and developing in Flash is generally pretty rapid and intuitive, AS3 is a reasonably powerful scripting environment and the Flash platform can be used as an excellent video player / delivery mechanism (visit any social video site ala Youtube).
I'm not surprised that the iPhone did not launch with Flash whatsoever. The retooling required to launch the Flash Player application on that platform is significant and would require a large amount of time and resources to get it to work well in Safari and/or as a standalone app.
There needs to be a distinction made when talking about performance. As it currently stands, Flash Player won't perform well on the IPhone
. It performs well on most modern desktops/laptops because of the processing capability available and the lack of restrictions that all current handsets have. The mobile space as we understand it now is very new and requires apps to be specifically tuned or written because of the additional restrictions that most ports couldn't meet (processing power, power use, etc.).
The idea that Apple has resources to expend working in secret behind the scenes with Adobe to help to fix the performance problems in the next 6-12 months, when it clearly isn't important to Apple, and clearly hasn't hurt Apple, is stupid.
None of us can speak to Apple's resources, capabilities or interest in certain terms unless you work there. Even then, I'm sure you'll be bound by a NDA, so in essence, it is
a secret. It's all speculation.
Apple does work with the developer community, especially when the developer is a company the likes and size of Adobe. When it comes to businesses of this size, Apple simply doesn't deliver developer tools and hopes for the best. Adobe's software generates quite a bit of interest in the Mac platform so it's in Apple's interest to keep a good thing going.
And for you flash programers out there, just deal with it and download the SDK and start learning how to build efficient apps for the phone instead of thinking flash is your development environment.
The general concern isn't being able to develop Flash apps for the iPhone and I would think that your average Flash developer isn't all that concerned either. That's what the SDK is for.
What most people are experiencing on the iPhone is the fact that when you browse a good cross section of web pages, a major element of the design / website / experience is clearly missing. You have this wonderfully crafted device that seems to have a "hole" in it. A web browser should account for things such as these if possible. A good web developer, in the meantime, should know not to build sites with a flash nav or something that is a roadblock to usability.
So... can you explain to us how Flash is a bad product exactly? How long have you been developing in it vs other environments to make that assertion?
Are you reacting at all to the ways in which web designers and developers use flash within websites? This is an entirely different subject, but I would agree with you there.