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Will China's Government Collapse?

post #1 of 13
Thread Starter 
A case could be made for a 'yes' answer.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...032501665.html

There have been more accounts of riots, protests and political unrest across China recently. Part of this is the inevitable exchange of information thanks to cell phones and the net. Another part of the issue is the "one child" policy, which has left millions of males with no chance at marrying. This has been cited as one reason why there are frequent violent conflicts in the Middle East.

Religious persecution has usually ended in one of two ways. The oppressed are destroyed or there is a diaspora.

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post #2 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

A case could be made for a 'yes' answer.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...032501665.html

There have been more accounts of riots, protests and political unrest across China recently. Part of this is the inevitable exchange of information thanks to cell phones and the net. Another part of the issue is the "one child" policy, which has left millions of males with no chance at marrying. This has been cited as one reason why there are frequent violent conflicts in the Middle East.

Religious persecution has usually ended in one of two ways. The oppressed are destroyed or there is a diaspora.

Did anyone think in mid 1989 that the entire Soviet "Bloc" alliance would have collapsed within a year, followed soon after by the USSR itself?

China's time for "liberation of one form or another" must be on the cards....
"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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post #3 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

A case could be made for a 'yes' answer.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...032501665.html

There have been more accounts of riots, protests and political unrest across China recently. Part of this is the inevitable exchange of information thanks to cell phones and the net. Another part of the issue is the "one child" policy, which has left millions of males with no chance at marrying. This has been cited as one reason why there are frequent violent conflicts in the Middle East.

Religious persecution has usually ended in one of two ways. The oppressed are destroyed or there is a diaspora.

China is a large place and the Han majority seems rather supportive of the central government at the moment. Only in the frontiers and minority population do you see unrest.

As far as religious presecution, yeah, there's already been a diaspora after Tibet lost the first time around.

Still though...very poorly played by Beijing. Pushing in a hardliner in Tibet was really dumb. Revolts were almost a certainty and of course it would happen in 2008 marring their olympic year.

At least they didn't screw up their Taiwan election. The KMT won and likely the two countries will move toward peaceful reunification. Close thing though...
post #4 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

China is a large place and the Han majority seems rather supportive of the central government at the moment. Only in the frontiers and minority population do you see unrest.

The political parties in China are a bit of a joke.
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Cat: the other white meat
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post #5 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splinemodel View Post

The political parties in China are a bit of a joke.

Eh? There's only one: CPC. Then there are 8 parties for show. The only one of any potential relevance is the China Revolutionary Committee of the Kummintang if it reunites with the KMT on taiwan in some kind of reunification deal. The KMT, in exchange for a peaceful reunification, is going to want meaningful power within the central government.

The others are pleasant fiction or interesting social groups composed of academics or intellectuals.

When I say the Han supports the central government I mean that they aren't close to riots, protests and unrest. There is no case for a "yes" answer that China is anywhere close to collapse. The primary difference between the Soviet Union and China is that China has a functioning economy and a raising standard of living.

If all you want to do is keep your head down, make money and live better, largely you can even ignore that you live in a Communist state. Just don't pick some religion or cause to join.
post #6 of 13
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...T2008032400953

Here. If there was any stability issues in China proper there's no way in hell Taiwan would move toward closer relations when a collapse of the PRC would allow them recognition as a seperate state.

That Taipei is moving closer to Beijing I would think plays very well domestically and with the careful news manipulation on state run information sources the Tibet thing isn't a big issue with the larger population of ethnic Han.
post #7 of 13
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by sammi jo View Post

Did anyone think in mid 1989 that the entire Soviet "Bloc" alliance would have collapsed within a year, followed soon after by the USSR itself?

China's time for "liberation of one form or another" must be on the cards....

At the very least, it's time for Guns 'n Roses' "Chinese Democracy" album.

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post #8 of 13
There are two simple reasons China's government will NEVER collapse.

1. Money. They have a hell of a lot of it. A LOT. There will not be a Soviet style economic collapse.

2. Military. There is not even the slightest sign that the military would ever go against whatever the CCP dictates. There will not be a military coup. They're being paid well, and they are proud of their country.
post #9 of 13
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonton View Post

There are two simple reasons China's government will NEVER collapse.

1. Money. They have a hell of a lot of it. A LOT. There will not be a Soviet style economic collapse.

2. Military. There is not even the slightest sign that the military would ever go against whatever the CCP dictates. There will not be a military coup. They're being paid well, and they are proud of their country.

Oh?...

Link

...really?

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post #10 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Oh?...

Link

...really?

That's like saying the US was ready for a revolt during the 80s junk bond era or after Enron or whatever. And a burst bubble doesn't equate to a Soviet like economic collapse.

Will the bubble bursting have a negative impact on China and the happiness of the population. Sure. Just like here.

Will it result in a revolt against the central government? Not too likely. What is likely is a few highly visibile scapegoats will get a 9mm injection to appease the fleeced, some promise for reform and likely even some real reform.

And the military appears loyal...hard to say otherwise. The only remote danger is for some real hardline Communist general with pretentions of being a second Mao to call the current central government corrupt capitalists and start another revolution in the countryside with the support of his troops against the rich decadent city dwellers.

THEN the CCP will have some serious issues. But thinks are largely going their way and WE sure as heck don't need an unstable China.

But that's a real remote possibility at this time. Odds of success are too low even if there was some guy out there with the chops to want to try.
post #11 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonton View Post


2. Military. There is not even the slightest sign that the military would ever go against whatever the CCP dictates. There will not be a military coup. They're being paid well, and they are proud of their country.

Is the military getting top grade or like in Japan getting whatever dribs and drabs that can't make it into a good university or in the corporate marketplace? Is the military considered a good career path?

India has a real issue with gaining and keeping good officers in the face of much better pay and growth in the corporate world.

I don't follow China all that closely and its not like they're very forthcoming about that kind of thing anyway.
post #12 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonton View Post

There are two simple reasons China's government will NEVER collapse.

1. Money. They have a hell of a lot of it. A LOT. There will not be a Soviet style economic collapse.

2. Military. There is not even the slightest sign that the military would ever go against whatever the CCP dictates. There will not be a military coup. They're being paid well, and they are proud of their country.

Never is a long time. Your points, supposing that they're valid now (I don't know China), will certainly not continue unchanged indefinitely.
post #13 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Is the military getting top grade or like in Japan getting whatever dribs and drabs that can't make it into a good university or in the corporate marketplace? Is the military considered a good career path?

India has a real issue with gaining and keeping good officers in the face of much better pay and growth in the corporate world.

I don't follow China all that closely and its not like they're very forthcoming about that kind of thing anyway.

The clearest path to riches in China, thanks to corruption, is still through the state. Join the military and the CCP, trade favors with cadres and make much more money than 95% of businessmen.
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