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Gartner analyst stokes 3G iPhone rumors

post #1 of 78
Thread Starter 
An analyst for market research firm Gartner said Tuesday he believes Apple to have placed orders for 10 million 3G iPhones which would employ a more modern form of display screen that could pave the way for a slimmer handset with improved battery life.

Ken Dulaney, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner, made the comments in a phone interview with the iPodObserver following a revised recommendation from his firm blessing the current version of the Apple handset for use within the enterprise.

The order of 10 million 3G iPhones -- a model that will take advantage of third-generation wireless networks and perform some Internet functions up to ten times as fast as the current 2.5G/EDGE-based model -- is said to be in addition to the 10 million first-generation units Apple plans to sell by year's end.

Dulaney's prediction, which is admittedly based on "rumors" overheard in Asia, would appear to support a common theory that the Cupertino-based company will continue to market its first-generation iPhone at a greatly reduced cost once the 3G model hits the market.

On average, analysts on Wall Street are forecasting sales of just over 2 million iPhones for the first calendar quarter of 2008, which would leave Apple some catching up to do if it intends to meet or beat its self-imposed goal of selling 10 million units by year's end.

For its part, however, the company's management has frequently and earnestly reiterated confidence in besting that goal, suggesting a catalyst to spur demand -- such as new models and price drops on old models -- lay in the wings.

In speaking to the iPodObserver on Tuesday, Dulaney also speculated that that the "so-called 3G iPhone" will use an extremely pricey and cutting-edge Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) display, which could both improve battery life and lead to a slimmer phone.

Though not as widely proven as traditional LCD screens like those used in the current iPhone, OLED displays do not require a backlight to function. As a result, they draw far less power and, when powered from a battery, can operate longer on the same charge. The absence of a backlight also means that OLED displays can be much thinner than LCDs.
post #2 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The order of 10 million 3G iPhones ....... is said to be in addition to the 10 million first-generation units Apple plans to sell by year's end.

His rumor/speculation sounds awfully specific. I doubt now that 3G is going to happen in June. I wonder if it could be next MWSF's big splash in Jan 09?
post #3 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

His rumor/speculation sounds awfully specific. I doubt now that 3G is going to happen in June. I wonder if it could be next MWSF's big splash in Jan 09?

There's no way Apple is going to give Android-based 3G handsets a six-month head start when they are already ahead of the game right now =P

That would be a lot of control to relinquish and I'm pretty confident that is not in Apple's playbook. I believe we'll have the official word on a 3G iPhone within 2-4 months.

Best,

K
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post #4 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasper View Post

There's no way Apple is going to give Android-based 3G handsets a six-month head start when they are already ahead of the game right now =P

That would be a lot of control to relinquish and I'm pretty confident that is not in Apple's playbook. I believe we'll have the official word on a 3G iPhone within 2-4 months.

Best,

K

Agreed. It's typical Apple strategy to flood the market like they did with the iPod. However, keeping the old model is a new twist, but frankly brilliant if it brings the price point down to say $250.

IMO, a new 3G model is absolutely necessary for Apple to reach their 10m target. This along with the official SDK, app store and discounted first gen iPhone will get them there.
post #5 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasper View Post

There's no way Apple is going to give Android-based 3G handsets a six-month head start when they are already ahead of the game right now =P

That would be a lot of control to relinquish and I'm pretty confident that is not in Apple's playbook. I believe we'll have the official word on a 3G iPhone within 2-4 months.

Best,

K

It could coincide with the announced iPhone enterprise software update at the upcoming Macworld in June. Also, we belgians expect to embrace the iPhone legally around Summer time.

I hope the new 3G phone will get rid of 1/ the black chin, 2/ the Nokia chrome edge and 3/ the brick styling in favour of a more sensual Macbook Air style approach.
post #6 of 78
http://www.engadget.com/2006/04/26/a...ng-lcd-pixels/

Sorry for the external link there, but I just thought maybe this talk of new screen tech could be something to do with Apples ancient patent on embedding video receiving pixels into LCDs. That would be some fancy video call action.
post #7 of 78
Even with the price of OLEDs falling, surely they are still too expensive and unproven to go into the next iPhone revision.

Apple do not historically jump on the bandwagon so early, rather wait until the waters are calmer and then implement it better than the competition (I am writing this now and thinking of several exceptions to this statement e.g. multitouch screen).

I think the observations above regarding not letting Android get a clear run-out are very astute and could well have made Apple change it's product time-line. It also makes sense to keep the current iteration as a lower priced model. Is the current NYC shortage of supply a coincidence?
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post #8 of 78
Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?

- Dave Marsh
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post #9 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Marsh View Post

Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?

the sony oled hdtv has a contrast ratio of over 1,000,000: 1...I would say that it looks pretty nice
post #10 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Marsh View Post

Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?

OLED doesn't need backlighting, that's the entire point. Each element generates its own light rather than trying to block a backlight.
post #11 of 78
I was going to buy an iphone this week, 16 gigs... should I wait for this one??
post #12 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanUK View Post

Even with the price of OLEDs falling, surely they are still too expensive and unproven to go into the next iPhone revision.

Apple do not historically jump on the bandwagon so early, rather wait until the waters are calmer and then implement it better than the competition (I am writing this now and thinking of several exceptions to this statement e.g. multitouch screen).

I think the observations above regarding not letting Android get a clear run-out are very astute and could well have made Apple change it's product time-line. It also makes sense to keep the current iteration as a lower priced model. Is the current NYC shortage of supply a coincidence?

I would agree if putting an OLED display in an iPhone was Apple's first venture into OLED displays, however they have already put them in notebooks, so this wouldn't be an unproven thing.

Also, high on Apple's priority list are making the device thinner and improving battery life. An OLED display is one of the few things that can accomplish both of these things. The next iPhone will probably be $599 for a 32gb and $499 for a 16gb, so we'll be paying the premium either way.
post #13 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Marsh View Post

Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?

it would be a game changer . i'd sell mine in a minute
post #14 of 78
Seeing as how the iPhone has been altogether different in strategy (where Apple has been extremely aggressive compared to other product growth models, having learned from the iPods), it seems like they'll take the price of the iPhone-EDGE down to 199 and 299, perhaps only sold on contract to prop up income? And, intro the new iPhone-3G at $399 & $499. Two models to hit the lower end, and try to crush the Pearl/Centro. (this is the iPhone nano?) Two models to rock the high end.

It will also be interesting to see how (if the OLED rumor is true), if they split some of that space savings up for more storage & battery. I'm not sure that most people would appreciate 1-2 mm thinner iPhone with the same battery life, and with the entry of the SDK, I can only imagine they'll want more power & flash.

It sounds like the iPhone EDGE was meant for a 10-12 million production run. They could either EOL it, or taper down production with demand and a future iPhone-#3.

My question is, will they be exclusively wed to AT & T with iPhone-3G? Sounds like AT&T is committed to 3G, so I can't imagine they'd set themselves up to be stood-up.

Another question is, which processor will be in the 3G? With the SDK, I imagine a faster more powerful processor will be a welcome change, and perhaps the 3G will permit SDK background apps?
post #15 of 78
Apple has said repeatedly that it's goal is to sell 10 million phone "in calendar 2008". They have never said "by the end of 2008". The biggest misquote of the year.

I haven't heard any analysts predicting over 2 million phones for this quarter, certainly not "forecasting sales of just over 2 million iPhones".

You imply that Apple has placed orders for 10 million phones on top of the 10 million it plans to sell "by years end". Uh, no, Apple has not placed an order for something they plan to ship 9 months from now.
post #16 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

OLED doesn't need backlighting, that's the entire point. Each element generates its own light rather than trying to block a backlight.

Aren't they using the OLED in MacBook Pro's as a backlight? Most of the savings is from moving from a cold cathode fluorescent, while also being brighter.

I would imagine this is what they're doing...

my 2¢
post #17 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blascock View Post

I was going to buy an iphone this week, 16 gigs... should I wait for this one??

Do you really need it now? Do you think you can wait? I figure there's going to be an update last day of June, when the original was introduced was first sold last year, or in September / October, when they typically update their iPods.
post #18 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by randomthot View Post

Aren't they using the OLED in MacBook Pro's as a backlight? Most of the savings is from moving from a cold cathode fluorescent, while also being brighter.

I would imagine this is what they're doing...

my 2¢

No, they're using LED backlights, which is not the same as OLED.
post #19 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by satchmo View Post

IMO, a new 3G model is absolutely necessary for Apple to reach their 10m target. This along with the official SDK, app store and discounted first gen iPhone will get them there.

It seems to me that whoever is behind SJ helping with the "business plan" is a fargin genius. It's not some willy-nilly just toss out our new product kind of thing. Everything Apple does in the public realm is well-planned and strategically thought out. They definitely have their fingers on the pulse of the consumer at this point. I know i don't usually throw props like this, and am more of a cynic, but they really deserve the credit for being "psychic" about what the public wants. "ALL HAIL APPLE!". (oh, and thanks for the stock going up again too)

fARG
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post #20 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunchy View Post

No, they're using LED backlights, which is not the same as OLED.

ah...thx! my mistake
post #21 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanUK View Post

Even with the price of OLEDs falling, surely they are still too expensive and unproven to go into the next iPhone revision.

Apple do not historically jump on the bandwagon so early, rather wait until the waters are calmer and then implement it better than the competition (I am writing this now and thinking of several exceptions to this statement e.g. multitouch screen).

I think the observations above regarding not letting Android get a clear run-out are very astute and could well have made Apple change it's product time-line. It also makes sense to keep the current iteration as a lower priced model. Is the current NYC shortage of supply a coincidence?

I think you are right about Apple not jumping on the bandwagon early. When they do it though, they have a high confidence level in what they are doing, eg Penryn.

As far as the multitouch goes, it's just a (much) better implementation of a normal stylus and touchscreen setup.

It's too early for the NYC shortages to be coincidental. There has been no news out of the FCC about a new iPhone. And for something that big, there would have to be a leak or mention of some kind. We're still a couple of months away, at a minimum.
post #22 of 78
I'm thinking Al Gore must like what he sees with the new 3G phone while he is sitting in the boardroom and passing around which could be the next biggest product for Apple.Last week he purchased 10,000 shares at 129, by January 8, 2009 apple stock will probably hit 200 so that would give him $710,000 profit in less than 10 months. Excellent investment considering we are in a recession
post #23 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by sikras View Post

I'm thinking Al Gore must like what he sees with the new 3G phone while he is sitting in the boardroom and passing around which could be the next biggest product for Apple.Last week he purchased 10,000 shares at 129, by January 8, 2009 apple stock will probably hit 200 so that would give him $710,000 profit in less than 10 months. Excellent investment considering we are in a recession

Ummm... According to this article:

http://macdailynews.com/index.php/we...omments/16766/

he received options to purchase shares at a specific price, not quite the same as actually making the purchase. I'd think that people receiving these options would wait until the potential profit is realized before actually exercising them. Why take the risk of a further downturn? The only loose end would be if there were an expiration on the options. Once the desired profit is in-hand, take a trip to the bank to borrow the money, exercise the options, cash out, and repay the loan.

- Dave Marsh
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post #24 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

His rumor/speculation sounds awfully specific. I doubt now that 3G is going to happen in June. I wonder if it could be next MWSF's big splash in Jan 09?

I agree.I've been saying that for months. Apple will probably give the iPhone 2.0 update six months before upgrading the hardware. Releasing the 3G iPhone in Jun will kill the 2.0 update momentum.
post #25 of 78
In my updated review of the iPhone said it needs an OLED display, I still believe that. We need true blacks to make this UI sign, any battery savings would be a bonus.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #26 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Marsh View Post

Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?

OLED displays aren't bad enough to match LCD's. Cause LCD's suck [well kinda]. OLED would wipe the floor with LCD.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #27 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blascock View Post

I was going to buy an iphone this week, 16 gigs... should I wait for this one??

Can you wait till July?
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #28 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

His rumor/speculation sounds awfully specific. I doubt now that 3G is going to happen in June. I wonder if it could be next MWSF's big splash in Jan 09?

I think we'll see 3G by the end of June. I certainly hope so!
post #29 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanUK View Post

Even with the price of OLEDs falling, surely they are still too expensive and unproven to go into the next iPhone revision.

Apple do not historically jump on the bandwagon so early, rather wait until the waters are calmer and then implement it better than the competition (I am writing this now and thinking of several exceptions to this statement e.g. multitouch screen).

OLEDS have been used for years in small devices. There are hundreds of millions of them in auto dashboards as front panels for in-car audio systems. Phones use them for the small outside displays, and a couple use them for the actual display, though I don't remember which.

The problem with OLEDS is that it's peoven difficult to make them for devices that are on for four to six hours a day for years on end in larger sizes.

The phone won't have its display on for that length of time each day, and people don't keep hones for up to ten years anyway.

If Apple chose to use an OLED display, and moved it to all the new devices, they would sell ten million a year, in the beginning, and more later. That would solve the mass production/pricing problem.

If the extra components in the present displays, that is, the power supply for the backlight, and the backlight itself, along with the more complex mounting system for these parts, as well as the more complex assembly required, costs enough to mostly compensate for the extra cost of the OLED, then it would also make sense to replace it. The extra parts also contribute to a greater chance of something breaking down, which adds to the required portion of the selling price allocated to warranty costs.
post #30 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Marsh View Post

Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?

OLEDS can be made very bright.

Remember that LCD's are at a big disadvantage here.

An LCD uses twisted crystals that change their orientation in response to an electrical signal. That signal can be very small, so that's fine.

But, LCD's don't produce light, so they need a backlight. That's one big problem. Most of that backlight is wasted because the LCD works as a shutter, preventing the always on LCD from beamig through. so that light must be fairly bright.

The other problem is that with color LCDs, the light must also work its way out through RGB 100% saturated filters. In order for white to look while, that backlight must be very bright indeed!

Since OLEDS generate their own light, and produce color naturally, through their own generation (RGB LEDs), the light produced is delivered at a 100% efficiency to our eyes, going through no filters or other components. Black is truly black, as the OLED simply turns off completely when required.

Because of this, OLEDS need to put out much less light than the LCD backlight in order to produce a very bright, contrasty, saturated image.

The power usage is also much less, much less than the LED backlights now used on some of Apple's, and other laptops, and monitors.

It really works!
post #31 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by essential View Post

I would agree if putting an OLED display in an iPhone was Apple's first venture into OLED displays, however they have already put them in notebooks, so this wouldn't be an unproven thing.

No, they haven't. those backlights are LEDs. They are not organic in nature, and there isn't a full screen of them back there.

OLEDS wouldn't be suitable for a backlight, as they aren't that bright. Their purpose would be as a display.
post #32 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyapple View Post

Apple has said repeatedly that it's goal is to sell 10 million phone "in calendar 2008". They have never said "by the end of 2008". The biggest misquote of the year.

I haven't heard any analysts predicting over 2 million phones for this quarter, certainly not "forecasting sales of just over 2 million iPhones".

You imply that Apple has placed orders for 10 million phones on top of the 10 million it plans to sell "by years end". Uh, no, Apple has not placed an order for something they plan to ship 9 months from now.

Let's understand something here. *IN* the calender year means the same thing as by the *END* of the year, calender, or otherwise.

Apple may say *in* because they hope it will be before the *end* of the year. But they aren't saying *middle* or other part of the year either, because they don't know if that will be correct.

*IN* means anytime during, including the last day.
post #33 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasper View Post

There's no way Apple is going to give Android-based 3G handsets a six-month head start when they are already ahead of the game right now =P

I don't get this. How about Symbian, Windows Mobile, Palm and Blackberry handsets? They all have 3G capable handsets and have done for years, but suddenly the availability of Android is the thing that will push Apple to use 3G?
post #34 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by dr_lha View Post

I don't get this. How about Symbian, Windows Mobile, Palm and Blackberry handsets? They all have 3G capable handsets and have done for years, but suddenly the availability of Android is the thing that will push Apple to use 3G?

I wouldn't say that the Android would be the only thing that pushes Apple. But the others are a known quantity, and Apple can see where they stand relative to them, so Android is an unknown. Apple will be wary of it, even if their public statements dismiss it right now.
post #35 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyapple View Post

Apple has said repeatedly that it's goal is to sell 10 million phone "in calendar 2008". They have never said "by the end of 2008". The biggest misquote of the year.

I haven't heard any analysts predicting over 2 million phones for this quarter, certainly not "forecasting sales of just over 2 million iPhones".

You imply that Apple has placed orders for 10 million phones on top of the 10 million it plans to sell "by years end". Uh, no, Apple has not placed an order for something they plan to ship 9 months from now.

Are we going to go through this again? Anything before 12:01 AM on January 1, 2009 is considered 2008. End of story.

And consider this: If Apple were to drop the price to $150, you could bet they'd sell out their stock pretty fast.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #36 of 78
I still say no 3G until FY09. Their focus will strictly be on the software and 3rd party issues.
post #37 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by McDavies View Post

I still say no 3G until FY09. Their focus will strictly be on the software and 3rd party issues.

I don't agree. A non-3G iPhone won't officially be released in Asia.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #38 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

OLEDS have been used for years in small devices. There are hundreds of millions of them in auto dashboards as front panels for in-car audio systems. Phones use them for the small outside displays, and a couple use them for the actual display, though I don't remember which.

The problem with OLEDS is that it's peoven difficult to make them for devices that are on for four to six hours a day for years on end in larger sizes.

The phone won't have its display on for that length of time each day, and people don't keep hones for up to ten years anyway.

If Apple chose to use an OLED display, and moved it to all the new devices, they would sell ten million a year, in the beginning, and more later. That would solve the mass production/pricing problem.

If the extra components in the present displays, that is, the power supply for the backlight, and the backlight itself, along with the more complex mounting system for these parts, as well as the more complex assembly required, costs enough to mostly compensate for the extra cost of the OLED, then it would also make sense to replace it. The extra parts also contribute to a greater chance of something breaking down, which adds to the required portion of the selling price allocated to warranty costs.

Thank you for the good background. But are you saying OLED is something you think we might see mid to late 2008? Or do you think the problem with unproven lifespan of larger constantly reconfiguring OLED screens and the current high cost will mean it is something to look forward to a couple of years down the line?

And also thanks for clearing up the LED/OLED confusion. In addition Wikipedia has a good page on this. It says 14,000 hours lifespan compared to 60,000 hours for traditional LED/LCD technology and it mentions a newer experimental version claiming 198,000 hours. Would be great to see Apple champion this superior tech and drive the 'economies of scale' process.
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post #39 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post

I agree.I've been saying that for months. Apple will probably give the iPhone 2.0 update six months before upgrading the hardware. Releasing the 3G iPhone in Jun will kill the 2.0 update momentum.

Kill the momentum? Surely the opposite. Half the globe are drooling at the prospect of a 3G iPhone and the cutting edge 2.0 software without the hardware to match will be a little bit hollow.

I can see a big announcement at a scheduled or special event. iPhone 2.0 software and enterprise features demo'ed and then a massive 'one more thing' with the iPhone 3G (not Pro) causing global spontaneous applause and world peace.
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post #40 of 78
Quote:
Apple do not historically jump on the bandwagon so early, rather wait until the waters are calmer and then implement it better than the competition (I am writing this now and thinking of several exceptions to this statement e.g. multitouch screen).

Apple has adopted technological trends early, such as WiFi, USB, FireWire, Bluetooth. It depends on the technology and how it benefits Apple. Apple does not necessarily adopt an early trend if they believe its not mature or have a need for it.

OLED would allow Apple to use a very bright display with denser pixels and less power consumption. From what I've read a typical 320x240 LCD display uses around 400-500 mW, while an OLED display can use as little as 50mW. Power savings that would be very valuable on the iPhone.
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