Originally Posted by melgross
I've been bringing up these points, and others. It's now thought that we may see a 20 foot rise in levels by the turn of the century, and if a tipping point is reached, possibly as much as a 250 to 300 foot increase in sea levels will occur at some point in the next century, or, at most, the one after that.
Or, given the infancy of climatology and its reliance on untestable models and a large number of probabilistic assumptions, the discounting by many or most environmental scientists of the profound impact of solar cycles (long and short) and events, that some whole variety of other things might happen.
This science simply can't say. Reliable data samples are far too short to extrapolate with confidence.
Look how totally limited and fundamentally wrong our conception of the universe was even once we had Einstein's theories. No big bang, no quantum mechanics, no sub-electron particles, no multiple galaxies, then millions of galaxies and now billions of CLUSTERS of billions of galaxies, quasars, etc.
Rather than beat us over the head with such primitive models (all weather forecasts have disappointingly low rates of success -- and the longer ahead, the less accurate even over days, let alone a century) sometimes tuned however unconsciously toward the researcher's expectations -- until better baselines are established, it's enough to use logic to see we can't expand into every niche in the biosphere without destroying the sources of the food chain and the oxygen balance of the earth, and that it's arrogant and immoral to wipe out every other complicated species on the planet. Jeez. Case closed.
Global Climate Change, on the other hand is an oxymoron -- the one thing there's never been in 4.6 billion years is "Global Climate Stability"!
SUV emissions didn't kill the Trilobites and didn't cause a snowball earth, periods of incredible volcanism or even a measly Ice Age. The planet evolves, the sun's evolving, the solar system.
And it may be another century before we really understand even the main mechanisms and longer before tools to manage them (which we'll probably manage to also screw up pretty well especially at first). This is complicated stuff even for a farm of X-Serves and genius scientist/programmer teams.
So I just wish we could use common sense as the basis of moving people and societies to behave sanely, and depoliticize (and desensationalize) the science so we CAN get to the bottom of things that may save our species' butts down the line.
OK. I said the name of a Mac product once, but, yeah, this is now an official "rathole."