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Piper: German iPhone cut clearing inventory ahead of 3G launch

post #1 of 18
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Investment bank Piper Jaffray said Friday it has confirmed a T-Mobile Germany price cut on the 8GB iPhone from €399 to €99, adding that it's a sign Apple is looking to drain existing inventories ahead of 3G iPhone launch no later than June.

The official promotion runs through June 30, and requires a two-year contract and the high end data plan.

"In the U.S., Apple's supply of iPhones continues to be limited, but European carriers appear to be overstocked," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients. "These data points lead us to believe Apple will launch a new iPhone in the U.S. in June at the latest, with a European launch shortly thereafter."

The analyst said he's spoken with representatives from 18 more US-based Apple retail stores since his report on checks with 20 locations early in the week. This time he found "small amounts of iPhones, usually 8GB" that were selling out quickly. One store even imposed a two per-person limit, which is more restrictive than the company's broadly adopted five phone limit.

"This type of channel control is typical of Apple ahead of new products," Munster wrote. "In Europe, the opposite story seems to point to the same conclusion. Apple's carrier partners are a completely separate channel from its own retail stores, and the carrier partners appear to be overstocked with iPhones."

Although Apple is dealing with its mobile channel partners in the same way that it has been interacting with iPod resellers, the analyst believes there are some early wrinkles that need smoothing.

He points to the ongoing iPhone availability saga as one example of how Apple is still learning from the launch of its first mobile handset: although the company maintains tight control of its direct sales channels, which include its retail and online stores, wireless partners like AT&T and T-Mobile have struggled with that same kind of discipline, particularly in the area of inventory management.

"This has been compounded by weaker than expected iPhone sales in Europe," Munster told clients. "Therefore, it seems as if this has led to Apple trickling iPhones into its U.S. retails stores, while T-Mobile and other carrier partners seek to drain their stock of iPhones ahead of a new model."

The Piper Jaffray analyst, who maintains a Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of Apple, is forecasting for the iPhone to have a breakout year in 2009, in which he believes 45 million units will be shipped and sold.
post #2 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Investment bank Piper Jaffray said Friday it has confirmed a T-Mobile Germany price cut on the 8GB iPhone from 399 to 99, adding that it's a sign Apple is looking to drain existing inventories ahead of 3G iPhone launch no later than June.

The official promotion runs through June 30, and requires a two-year contract and the high end data plan.

"In the U.S., Apple's supply of iPhones continues to be limited, but European carriers appear to be overstocked," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients. "These data points lead us to believe Apple will launch a new iPhone in the U.S. in June at the latest, with a European launch shortly thereafter."

The analyst said he's spoken with representatives from 18 more US-based Apple retail stores since his report on checks with 20 locations early in the week. This time he found "small amounts of iPhones, usually 8GB" that were selling out quickly. One store even imposed a two per-person limit, which is more restrictive than the company's broadly adopted five phone limit.

"This type of channel control is typical of Apple ahead of new products," Munster wrote. "In Europe, the opposite story seems to point to the same conclusion. Apple's carrier partners are a completely separate channel from its own retail stores, and the carrier partners appear to be overstocked with iPhones."

Although Apple is dealing with its mobile channel partners in the same way that it has been interacting with iPod resellers, the analyst believes there are some early wrinkles that need smoothing.

He points to the ongoing iPhone availability saga as one example of how Apple is still learning from the launch of its first mobile handset: although the company maintains tight control of its direct sales channels, which include its retail and online stores, wireless partners like AT&T and T-Mobile have struggled with that same kind of discipline, particularly in the area of inventory management.

"This has been compounded by weaker than expected iPhone sales in Europe," Munster told clients. "Therefore, it seems as if this has led to Apple trickling iPhones into its U.S. retails stores, while T-Mobile and other carrier partners seek to drain their stock of iPhones ahead of a new model."

The Piper Jaffray analyst, who maintains a Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of Apple, is forecasting for the iPhone to have a breakout year in 2009, in which he believes 45 million units will be shipped and sold.

Its only a matter of time before 3g will be a'commin'. Iphone is a great product that can only get better in a matter of months! 3 cheers to that!
post #3 of 18
I'm in Germany, and there ain't no way I'm going to bite at this offer from T-Mobile. Almost everyone here is waiting for the 3G model - buying a 2G phone in Europe is like buying a phone with a black and white screen, no one wants that. Just watch the boom when the 3G model arrives.
post #4 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hutcho View Post

I'm in Germany, and there ain't no way I'm going to bite at this offer from T-Mobile. Almost everyone here is waiting for the 3G model - buying a 2G phone in Europe is like buying a phone with a black and white screen, no one wants that. Just watch the boom when the 3G model arrives.

Seriously, this 45 mil number Piper-dink keeps throwing out seems like an awfully outrageous amount of phones for a single year.

Is this really that possible/likely?
post #5 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by echosonic View Post

Seriously, this 45 mil number Piper-dink keeps throwing out seems like an awfully outrageous amount of phones for a single year.

Is this really that possible/likely?

Yeah, he is nothing if not consistent. He works that number into everything he says.
Despite all the buzz, it is hard to imagine that kind of sales growth even with opening new markets and 3G and all.

The funny thing will be when Apple sells 40 mil iPhones next year and the stock drops because they "didn't meet their target" and "sales languish."
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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--e.e.c.
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post #6 of 18
"In the U.S., Apple's supply of iPhones continues to be limited, but European carriers appear to be overstocked," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients. "These data points lead us to believe Apple will launch a new iPhone in the U.S. in June at the latest, with a European launch shortly thereafter."


Something doesn't seem right to me. This sounds way too early to be cleaning house for a June 3G release especially with all of the shortages happening here in the states. I think a 3G phone is coming sooner than we all think.
Just say no to MacMall.  They don't honor their promotions and won't respond to customer inquiries.  There are better retailers out there.
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Just say no to MacMall.  They don't honor their promotions and won't respond to customer inquiries.  There are better retailers out there.
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post #7 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Yeah, he is nothing if not consistent. He works that number into everything he says.
Despite all the buzz, it is hard to imagine that kind of sales growth even with opening new markets and 3G and all.

The funny thing will be when Apple sells 40 mil iPhones next year and the stock drops because they "didn't meet their target" and "sales languish."

That's not funny. It could happen.
post #8 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Yeah, he is nothing if not consistent. He works that number into everything he says.
Despite all the buzz, it is hard to imagine that kind of sales growth even with opening new markets and 3G and all.

The funny thing will be when Apple sells 40 mil iPhones next year and the stock drops because they "didn't meet their target" and "sales languish."

Gene has been consistent in basically reducing his estimates silently as the quarter drags on.

Gene Munster has some of the lowest estimates for iphone sales this quarter at 1.65 million units.

http://www.businessweek.com/technolo...unster_so.html

Gene talks big upfront --- for the headline. Then he silently reduces his estimates --- that's his MO.
post #9 of 18
iPhone nano too, hopefully.
post #10 of 18
2011 13" 2.3 MBP, 2006 15" 2.16 MBP, iPhone 4, iPod Shuffle, AEBS, AppleTV2 with XBMC.
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2011 13" 2.3 MBP, 2006 15" 2.16 MBP, iPhone 4, iPod Shuffle, AEBS, AppleTV2 with XBMC.
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post #11 of 18
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Originally Posted by 8CoreWhore View Post





Very Uncle Sam. 'Cept, of course, Heidi's German.



.
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post #12 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hutcho View Post

I'm in Germany, and there ain't no way I'm going to bite at this offer from T-Mobile. Almost everyone here is waiting for the 3G model - buying a 2G phone in Europe is like buying a phone with a black and white screen, no one wants that. Just watch the boom when the 3G model arrives.


Yup. As even consistent Apple cheerleader Gene M admits:


"This has been compounded by weaker than expected iPhone sales in Europe," Munster told clients.


One would think that Apple would even want to launch the 3G model first in Europe, not the US... it should have a bigger impact over there than here. US sales have been good even with the mediocre 2.5G.

Oh, and the Asian launch might be concurrent or very close to the time frame of the 3G model showing up.... after all, Apple knows that to do squat in Japan or Korea, the iPhone must have 3G.

Somethin' tells me June is going to be a verrrry interestin' month. With all this and the upcoming 2.0 software, its kinda like the iPhone's 'real' debut...


.
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post #13 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by razorpit View Post

"In the U.S., Apple's supply of iPhones continues to be limited, but European carriers appear to be overstocked," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients. "These data points lead us to believe Apple will launch a new iPhone in the U.S. in June at the latest, with a European launch shortly thereafter."


Something doesn't seem right to me. This sounds way too early to be cleaning house for a June 3G release especially with all of the shortages happening here in the states. I think a 3G phone is coming sooner than we all think.

our shortages from what i've read may be more related to our weak dollar and developing countries getting them cheap then selling what they can't use personally, and euorpean issue is clearing inventory
BUT 2.5 MONTHS EARLY!!!!.....i think the timing is off, maybe announce this in may not APRIL

they would have to make an early june announcement with IMMEDIATE shipping,
has this happened with any other apple product.....
WHERE IS THE FCC in this, maybe apple told them to hold the website "announcement"

something is fishy.....fishy......fishy

SDK....inventory issues..... hmmmmm.
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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post #14 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

our shortages from what i've read may be more related to our weak dollar and developing countries getting them cheap then selling what they can't use personally, and euorpean issue is clearing inventory

Good thing they are not selling them at Walmart.....
post #15 of 18
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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post #16 of 18
the price cut is limited to the time from 2nd week of april to the 1st week of june...

and the price cut is structured from €99 to €249, depending if you get the most expensive monthly contract or the cheapest!

i think this is meant to counter the rampant import of iphones from the US. iphones in germany that come from the US and not from tmobile germany are abundant and cost like 10-20% more than the €399 and €499 for the 8 and 16GB models...

people want to stay with their GSM provider and are willing to pay cash for that right to be able to choose their provider... it's very unfortunate that visual voicemail is not implemented GSM wide, i hope it will soon be part of the GSM standard and that other manufacturers offer it too... that would make it easier for apple to offer new innovative GSM features in the future....!
vista = virus inside switch to apple
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vista = virus inside switch to apple
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post #17 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by smokeonit View Post

the price cut is limited to the time from 2nd week of april to the 1st week of june...

and the price cut is structured from 99 to 249, depending if you get the most expensive monthly contract or the cheapest!

i think this is meant to counter the rampant import of iphones from the US. iphones in germany that come from the US and not from tmobile germany are abundant and cost like 10-20% more than the 399 and 499 for the 8 and 16GB models...

people want to stay with their GSM provider and are willing to pay cash for that right to be able to choose their provider... it's very unfortunate that visual voicemail is not implemented GSM wide, i hope it will soon be part of the GSM standard and that other manufacturers offer it too... that would make it easier for apple to offer new innovative GSM features in the future....!

THANKS TO THE US DOLLAR!
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post #18 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

THANKS TO THE US DOLLAR!

yes, cheap money will always tank... for decades the US has been very generous to lenders... now it's payback time... nothing comes free in this world, not even easy credit!

if US money policy doesn't change the US$ will continue it's downward spiral... also the cost of the war on terror is showing it's very ugly face...

i think €1=US$2 is possible... then NYC will be overrun with euro travelers and dealers...
vista = virus inside switch to apple
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vista = virus inside switch to apple
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