Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
I don't necessarily disagree with your statements Mel, but you're missing out on a big part of the calculation. The move from VHS to DVD did not require buying a new TV set. The move from DVD to Blu Ray basically does.
Granted, more people will be 'forced' into upgrading their sets thanks to our upcoming switchover to digital broadcast, but many, many more will keep their current sets and just buy a converter box... AND they'll stick with the cheaper format of DVD.
I give Blue Ray a minimum 5 year widespread adoption curve, much like DVD.
Buying a new Tv set isn't the problem. It's the cause.
People were buying these new, big, hi def Tv's, not because of HD DVD or BD, but because of cable and satellite. Sports, sports, sports, movies, movies, movies.
The fact that 25% of US homes now has one, and that the uptake, even in this recession, is still increasing at a good clip, shows that the means to show a BD movie exists, and is increasing.
Sales of PS3's have been shown to be a good reason why BD movies are increasing in sales as more people buy them for the dual use. As the price of stand-alone players decreases, the movie sales will go even higher.
If Apple refuses to put a BD player, at least, in its machines, the ten and more times larger PC market will do so. And people DO watch movies on their computer. Don't forget that monitor sizes are getting larger as well. The 20" "standard" is giving way to the 22" And at least one manufacturer, though I forget which one, has now introduced a 22" with 1920 x 1080 (or 1200) rez. Can others be far behind?
The fact that sales of BD movies will increase several hundred percent over last year is also telling. And before you question the several hundred percent statement, remember that the more than twice last years sales already for BD movies, is a number that is about %125 -150% of all of last years sales. Those numbers were from the end of March! That's just 25% of the year.
No, BD will do very well.
What is the lifetime? I don't know, nor does anyone else. I would say that five years is a minimum of strong sales, perhaps reaching a peak about then, but having good sales extending for several years beyond that. The usual normal curve.
And that's all that can be expected these days.
We don't really know how the rollout of really fast broadband is going to be. That will decide the fate of all of these industries.