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iMac rumored for next week; new iPhone SDK; Apple updates - Page 3

post #81 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I don't agree with your points.

First, the point about number of movies.

Blockbuster listed less than 550 available a couple of months ago.

Check out Blu-ray site. They list them all. Note that if you select on of the genres, (the current number of movies are in parenthesis), you'll get the list. In many cases, most of the movies are slotted in 3 or more genres. Lots of dupes. Do the math.

Quick note on the backup to disk. Data (massive) management is my business. Very seldom anybody uses CDs or DVDs for backups. In addition, check out your local stores. My main wholesale supplier has stopped. Our local Best Buys and Staples told us that very few blank sales these days.

Still very expensive. And if you have been in the loop, the Blu-ray association owns the rights and for whatever reason, manufacturing in China is not allowed. And most experts have said that until such time, prices are not expected to drop.

Apple probably spends more on market research than any other in the business. You'll just never know how much.
post #82 of 129
(I'm not going to bother to go back and quote the relevant messages, but here's some more thoughts.)

BD is too soon for the CONSUMER machines = iMac & MacBook. And I don't think there are thin & low power enough drives for the MacBook Pros. But, as I think Melgross is also saying, Apple needs a BD solution in/on the Mac Pro. Apple is heavily used by the content creation people and they should be able to have BD support NOW so that they can master all the BD movies. Not being able to do that hurts Apple in a key market.

If Apple wants to get ahead of the curve a bit, maybe they could have BD in consumer machines as an option in a refresh at MacWorld in September. Or, whenever they refresh before the college buying season. Now that sounds like a seller: Blu-Ray in iMacs for dorm rooms. Yum.

- Jasen.
post #83 of 129
Okay, here it is. This is all you're gonna see



2.4 ghz, 2.6ghz, 2.8 extreme

320 400 500 gb hard drive

1 gig 2gigs 2gigs ram

choice of matte or glossy

maybe possibly new gpu w/512 on the higher end models

all price points unchanged.

Anything more than this would be a real surprise.
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post #84 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Apple will put the cheapest gpu they think will meet the minimum specs they think they can get away with.
.

That sums it up nicely. Its a shame because the 3800 series from ATI isn't that much more expensive than the 2600 series.

But for gaming there would be a noticeable difference from what I can tell.
post #85 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stageron View Post

Okay, here it is. This is all you're gonna see



2.4 ghz, 2.6ghz, 2.8 extreme

320 400 500 gb hard drive

1 gig 2gigs 2gigs ram

choice of matte or glossy

maybe possibly new gpu w/512 on the higher end models

all price points unchanged.

Anything more than this would be a real surprise.

Your post sounds quite definitive, not speculative. But I see some pricing, marketing and logistics issues.

First, the current processor speeds are 2.0(T7300), 2.4(7700), and 2.8(X7900). The next generation chip from Intel that keeps the same pricepoint is the 2.4(T8300), 2.5(T9300) and 2.8(X9000), with respective prices between each model remaining at $241, $316 and $851.

This would keep the iMacs at the same pricepoint but marketing wise people still look at only the clockspeed to determine performance making the low-end 20" iMac only 100Mhz away from the high-end 20" iMac even though the L2 is down from 4MB to 3MB. If I were Apple I'd pop the $209 2.1GHz(T8100) Penryn in there to create a clockspeed variance of 400Mhz and 300MHz, respectively between the iMac models. It's not like people buying the 20" low-end iMac are needing the extra speed and Apple can compensate the $31 elsewhere.

The HDD defaults are currently 250GB, 320GB and 320GB. With all iMacs having an option for 500GB and 750GB and the 24" having a 1TB option. I think the default will now be 320GB for the low-end iMac, and 500GB default for the other iMacs, with options in both for 750GB and 1TB.

As for RAM, I think even the low-end will get 2GB as standard.

Sources:
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_..._1ku_Price.pdf
http://www.apple.com/imac/specs.html
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post #86 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

Blockbuster listed less than 550 available a couple of months ago.

Check out Blu-ray site. They list them all. Note that if you select on of the genres, (the current number of movies are in parenthesis), you'll get the list. In many cases, most of the movies are slotted in 3 or more genres. Lots of dupes. Do the math.

Quick note on the backup to disk. Data (massive) management is my business. Very seldom anybody uses CDs or DVDs for backups. In addition, check out your local stores. My main wholesale supplier has stopped. Our local Best Buys and Staples told us that very few blank sales these days.

Still very expensive. And if you have been in the loop, the Blu-ray association owns the rights and for whatever reason, manufacturing in China is not allowed. And most experts have said that until such time, prices are not expected to drop.

Apple probably spends more on market research than any other in the business. You'll just never know how much.

If you look around on the net, including Amazon, etc. You will find BD movies fro $15 and up, with a few even lower.

I have no problem getting them. I don't actually use them yet, but I have them in the catalogs, and their online.

Less expensive than Cd or DVD when they first came out, as I keep pointing out.

Everything you say about prices was said before about VD and DVD. Its of no importance in the long run. BD just won the war, it needs a year to settle in.

Forget China, it;s not important now.

You may assume what you like. but you have no idea what Apple may spend. I'm more inclined to believe that they do little.
post #87 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Where has Apple's leadership gone?

To the front of the industry - that's where! They didn't get there by chasing every new technology, but by picking and choosing technologies and enhancing them with laser focus. The iPod wasn't the first MP3 player out there and it's success wasn't an accident.

Blue Ray is so far down - WAY DOWN - on most people's radar, there is ABSOLUTELY no reason for them to even focus on it at this time.

And for people whining that PC people have Blue Ray - what the PC users really have is an incredible mess. Just do some googling and read around - there are all kinds of hardware and software compatibility issues - some disks play fine, others won't play at all or are glitchy as all get out... the technology is way too immature for Apple.

And as others have tried to point out (but it continually gets glossed over by BR supporters) is BR imposes MANDATORY requirements for copy protection that are way more complicated and invasive then DVD. Want to really piss off your customers? Tell them yeah, first you need a new computer to play a movie and oh, by the way, while you are at it, you probably need a new HDCP compliant monitor too.

You think people are pissy that the non-pro Mac desktop bundles a monitor now (i.e. the iMac)? Are you people for real? You really want Apple to tell them they have to junk their iMac just to play movies?

If I was someone like Apple, that right there would turn me off - let people play their movies on a dedicated player or game console if they want 'em that bad, but me personally I would rather see Apple focus on Mac OSX, the iPhone and portable computing (there is a ton of untapped potential in the iPod touch) then waste their time of, all things, a screwed up and overly DRM encumbered movie format on media this is probably going to be supplanted by downloadable content anyway!

Quote:
I think it's gone to web delivery, to the loss of its customers best interests.
I truly hate saying that, but it seems to be the case here.

Oh the humanity! Somehow I think they have a handle on their customers best interests then a minority of tech geeks on a web forum - who probably don't even own any BR content in the first place!

I haven't seen this many people with sand in their vagina's since I was on Slashdot earlier this morning
post #88 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I would love for Apple to finally offer an eSATA port. Like it or not, FW is on the way out for external drives. They have to start somewhere, and this would be a good place.

Hardly

Ever unplug an eSATA drive from a computer while it's on and mounted?
Ever unplug a firewire or USB drive from a computer while it's on and mounted?

eSATA is not designed for removable drives. It does not fail gracefully, and it's certainly not suitable for the "typical end user".

Firewire and USB (USB 3 anyone?) are not going anywhere for external drives.

Doesn't mean I still won't use eSATA - I just have realistic expectations, and I don't think it's realistic to expect Apple to put eSATA on an iMac.
post #89 of 129
I have no idea what new iMac models will have inside. I'd like to see an LED display, an eSATA port, more RAM capacity, a faster processor, and the choice of matte or glossy screen. I think those are realistic choices, we'll have to see what Apple thinks the choices should be.

I'd like to see all of the displays go for LED lighting, for all Mac models. The current non LED displays are not ready for prime time.
post #90 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post

To the front of the industry - that's where! They didn't get there by chasing every new technology, but by picking and choosing technologies and enhancing them with laser focus. The iPod wasn't the first MP3 player out there and it's success wasn't an accident.

Blue Ray is so far down - WAY DOWN - on most people's radar, there is ABSOLUTELY no reason for them to even focus on it at this time.

And for people whining that PC people have Blue Ray - what the PC users really have is an incredible mess. Just do some googling and read around - there are all kinds of hardware and software compatibility issues - some disks play fine, others won't play at all or are glitchy as all get out... the technology is way too immature for Apple.

And as others have tried to point out (but it continually gets glossed over by BR supporters) is BR imposes MANDATORY requirements for copy protection that are way more complicated and invasive then DVD. Want to really piss off your customers? Tell them yeah, first you need a new computer to play a movie and oh, by the way, while you are at it, you probably need a new HDCP compliant monitor too.

You think people are pissy that the non-pro Mac desktop bundles a monitor now (i.e. the iMac)? Are you people for real? You really want Apple to tell them they have to junk their iMac just to play movies?

If I was someone like Apple, that right there would turn me off - let people play their movies on a dedicated player or game console if they want 'em that bad, but me personally I would rather see Apple focus on Mac OSX, the iPhone and portable computing (there is a ton of untapped potential in the iPod touch) then waste their time of, all things, a screwed up and overly DRM encumbered movie format on media this is probably going to be supplanted by downloadable content anyway!



Oh the humanity! Somehow I think they have a handle on their customers best interests then a minority of tech geeks on a web forum - who probably don't even own any BR content in the first place!

I haven't seen this many people with sand in their vagina's since I was on Slashdot earlier this morning

Oh please! Don't be such a sycophant!

Apple screws up all the time. They aren't that special. They make good products, but they're just another company. We don't have to agree with everything they do, just because they do it.
post #91 of 129

Quote:
Ever unplug an eSATA drive from a computer while it's on and mounted?
Ever unplug a firewire or USB drive from a computer while it's on and mounted?

eSATA is not designed for removable drives. It does not fail gracefully, and it's certainly not suitable for the "typical end user".

Firewire and USB (USB 3 anyone?) are not going anywhere for external drives.

Doesn't mean I still won't use eSATA - I just have realistic expectations, and I don't think it's realistic to expect Apple to put eSATA on an iMac.

Firewire is often worse. Don't use that as an example.
post #92 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Oh please! Don't be such a sycophant!

Apple screws up all the time. They aren't that special. They make good products, but they're just another company. We don't have to agree with everything they do, just because they do it.

Any self-respecting* fanboy has to agree with everything they are fanatical about.



* Self-respecting because no one else will
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post #93 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Firewire is often worse. Don't use that as an example.

I have never had any issues using a Firewire connected external HD. OTOH, I never connect, or disconnect, any FW devices while the computer is up and running. That's a good way to fry a FW port.

If some have the patience to use USB 2, they are indeed "special" people.
post #94 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by zinfella View Post

I have never had any issues using a Firewire connected external HD. OTOH, I never connect, or disconnect, any FW devices while the computer is up and running. That's a good way to fry a FW port.

If some have the patience to use USB 2, they are indeed "special" people.

I'm not exactly a novice at this, but I've got a draw of Firewire drives that "failed gracefully".
post #95 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Oh please! Don't be such a sycophant!

I'm hardly a sycophant because I think that this thread is more then a little dramatic. I'm also not so self important to think that Apple is going to go out of business just because they don't do everything I want them too

Quote:
Apple screws up all the time.

Wow, what a revelation. Name me one company that doesn't screw up?

Quote:
They aren't that special. They make good products, but they're just another company.

Actually, they are special and they aren't just another company. Microsoft is just another company, so we have products like the zune. Apple marches to the beat of their own drum and we have the iPod.

Quote:
We don't have to agree with everything they do, just because they do it.

I don't recall telling anyone that you did have to agree with anything they did. I certainly don't (xMac anyone?).

What I am trying to do is bring some levity to the "OMG apple is going to go out of business if they don't release BR" frenzy that is occurring here.

Reality check - BR is a niche technology. Most people could care less about it, and that won't change any time soon. I would rather see Apple focus their limited resources on technology that has a greater benefit. If you really want to watch a BR movie, pick up a PS3....
post #96 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by zinfella View Post

I have never had any issues using a Firewire connected external HD. OTOH, I never connect, or disconnect, any FW devices while the computer is up and running. That's a good way to fry a FW port.

I've never had a problem plugging in and unplugging FW devices from scanners to hard drives to camcorders. It is part of the spec. Sure, there were some cheap enclosures a few years back - but I never do understand why people buy cheap crap then bitch and complain when it doesn't work right

Heck, I have a Seagate FreeAgent Pro external drive with my powerbook - I hook and unhook it at least once a day - often twice a day - it's smart enough to power up when I plug it in and power down on it's own when I unplug it.

Don't try that with eSATA - and which is why I fairly confident you will never see eSATA on an iMac...
post #97 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I'm not exactly a novice at this, but I've got a draw of Firewire drives that "failed gracefully".

By failing gracefully I mean when you unplug it while powered up and mounted, not dying completely.
post #98 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post

I'm hardly a sycophant because I think that this thread is more then a little dramatic. I'm also not so self important to think that Apple is going to go out of business just because they don't do everything I want them too

Who here said they would go out of business if they didn't do everything you wanted? Or even so much as hinted at it?

Quote:
Wow, what a revelation. Name me one company that doesn't screw up?

Uh, that was the point. I guess you missed it.

Quote:
Actually, they are special and they aren't just another company. Microsoft is just another company, so we have products like the zune. Apple marches to the beat of their own drum and we have the iPod.

I said they make good products. That's not unique either. But, Apple is just as controlling in its own way as MS is, and just as disdainful of its partners.

Quote:
I don't recall telling anyone that you did have to agree with anything they did. I certainly don't (xMac anyone?).

You were certainly leading that way.

Quote:
What I am trying to do is bring some levity to the "OMG apple is going to go out of business if they don't release BR" frenzy that is occurring here.

Levity is always welcome. I didn't read anything funny though.

Quote:
Reality check - BR is a niche technology. Most people could care less about it, and that won't change any time soon. I would rather see Apple focus their limited resources on technology that has a greater benefit. If you really want to watch a BR movie, pick up a PS3....

Happy you feel that way. Come back in a year or so, and we'll discuss it again.
post #99 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I'm not exactly a novice at this, but I've got a draw of Firewire drives that "failed gracefully".

How do we know that Firewire was the issue, and not the drives themselves? I've never seen any evidence that FW caused drive failure.

Good luck making an external cloned backup drive not using FW on PPCs. Or don't those count? The absolute fastest CF card reader (SanDisk Extreme IV, with SanDisk Extreme IV, or Extreme Ducati CF card) is, guess what, FW! And it's not a little faster, it's obscenely faster, than ANY USB offering

I wish Apple would get off the stick, and give us FW 1600 ports, on separate busses, while they're at it.
post #100 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post

By failing gracefully I mean when you unplug it while powered up and mounted, not dying completely.

Maybe you don't remember all of the Firewire failures Apple had for years. Even now, there's a problem. Firewire ports blow out easily. Drives get corrupted easily. They are also much slower than eSATA drives, that includes 800. Even 3200, if it ever sees the light of day, will be slower, because of the protocol switching chips required. And, as you know, there have been lots of problems with them as well.

I'm happy you have not had a problem, but many people have.
post #101 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by zinfella View Post

How do we know that Firewire was the issue, and not the drives themselves? I've never seen any evidence that FW caused drive failure.

Good luck making an external cloned backup drive not using FW on PPCs. Or don't those count? The absolute fastest CF card reader (SanDisk Extreme IV, with SanDisk Extreme IV, or Extreme Ducati CF card) is, guess what, FW! And it's not a little faster, it's obscenely faster, than ANY USB offering

I wish Apple would get off the stick, and give us FW 1600 ports, on separate busses, while they're at it.

Trust me, it was the Firewire.

I have the SanDisk cards and reader. It is fast. But it's not a valid comparison. The cards themselves are much slower than HDDs are.
post #102 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Trust me, it was the Firewire.

I have the SanDisk cards and reader. It is fast. But it's not a valid comparison. The cards themselves are much slower than HDDs are.

Blind trust, I don't think so. Show me some empirical evidence. It's easy to say that FW causes drive failure, convince me.
post #103 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post

Reality check - BR is a niche technology. Most people could care less about it, and that won't change any time soon. I would rather see Apple focus their limited resources on technology that has a greater benefit. If you really want to watch a BR movie, pick up a PS3....

I have to agree. Blu Ray, although it is now the new favorite for studios and retailers, is far from being a technology in high demand with consumers.

The plain vanilla DVD will continue to live for many years. The only thing that will kill the DVD will be massive price cutting on BD media and systems.

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post #104 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

All I can say about that, is what we already know.

Apple will put the cheapest gpu they think will meet the minimum specs they think they can get away with.

Exactly how they make the decision is one I would love to know. It must be based on some rational (to them!) reasoning. Perhaps it's based on what programs that Apple themselves make that they expect to be used on those machines. Whatever maximum needs those programs have is whay they will use, always opting for the cheaper solution that JUST squeeks through, rather than to opt for the one abovejust in case.

They don't seem to consider third party software, just their own.

If they had a game that required a better gpu, they would put it in, otherwise, no.

Sad, really.

Whats really sad is a ATI Radeon HD 2600 XT 256MB in a $2700 mac pro
post #105 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

The plain vanilla DVD will continue to live for many years. The only thing that will kill the DVD will be massive price cutting on BD media and systems.

Or studios only releasing new movies in Blu Ray.

Won't happen this year, but in 2 years who knows..
post #106 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasenj1

But, as I think Melgross is also saying, Apple needs a BD solution in/on the Mac Pro. Apple is heavily used by the content creation people and they should be able to have BD support NOW so that they can master all the BD movies. Not being able to do that hurts Apple in a key market.

Unfortunately Apple is showing little indication of wanting to support BD in it's ProApps, and is a long way off - development wise - from a workable solution, from what i have heard. Without this why would they put in any hardware support?

Quote:
If Apple wants to get ahead of the curve a bit, maybe they could have BD in consumer machines as an option in a refresh at MacWorld in September.

Perhaps some ppl at apple think they are getting ahead of the curve by jumping straight from dvd to downloads?
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post #107 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by zinfella View Post

I'd like to see an LED display, an eSATA port, more RAM capacity, a faster processor, and the choice of matte or glossy screen.

I'm with you. Although I love the glossy screen for general viewing (especially of video), it's a nightmare to work with for print output. My organization plans to buy upwards of 15 iMacs this summer, provided that they have matte screens. Be there, Apple.
post #108 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sybaritic View Post

I'm with you. Although I love the glossy screen for general viewing (especially of video), it's a nightmare to work with for print output. My organization plans to buy upwards of 15 iMacs this summer, provided that they have matte screens. Be there, Apple.

Well, for graphic intensive work, including photography, I like the glossy screen, if you have no back light reflections. The main issue is the inconsistent lighting across the entire screen with non-LED displays, which raises old Ned with accurate and consistent colors across the screen.

15 units is significant to someone like me, but, I doubt that it excites Apple when they look at sales numbers in 7 figures. I know that's not PC for an Apple afficianado to say, but they could get their act together to a higher degree, AFAIC. Current non LED displays just suck!
post #109 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by zinfella View Post

Current non LED displays just suck!

LEDs have been available in some displays for what, a year? And everything else sucks?
post #110 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by iDave View Post

LEDs have been available in some displays for what, a year? And everything else sucks?

Please don't take my word for it, Apple's own website offers plenty of support for my comments, if you are into precise graphics or photography. Other people don't notice, so they think that there's no problem.

Go and read, be informed.
post #111 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by zinfella View Post

Blind trust, I don't think so. Show me some empirical evidence. It's easy to say that FW causes drive failure, convince me.

Then you don't know anything about all the problems Apple has had over the years with Firewire.

Problems that have been WELL publicized.

I can't imagine where you've been.
post #112 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Or studios only releasing new movies in Blu Ray.

Won't happen this year, but in 2 years who knows..

Sony has said that in two years, players will hit the $200 (list), price range. But, before then players will go on sale, as usual. The movies themselves are already selling for much less than they were a year ago.

Sales of the PS3 are also up significantly, and we know that many are used to play movies.

Even if Apple refuses to do this, and I think they will be forced to give in, many PC's will have them, and that's a far larger market than Macs.

What we will see happening, and it's begining now, is that the higher end DVD players are being replaced in manufacturers lines with BD players. That will continue to happen, moving down the line over the next few years, until only the very cheapest players will not have BD, and that will happen as well, once BD hits the under $75 mark.

It's inevitable. You can buy BD movies for less than $15 now, with most under $20. As many DVD movies are still above $20, for the deluxe packs, the prices will converge. It's just a matter of increasing sales.

BD has already sold several million more movies this year than all of last year. That trend will continue.

But we're also in a recession, so adoption will be slower than it could have been. Afterwards, we will see a "pop" as always happens.
post #113 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Or studios only releasing new movies in Blu Ray.

Won't happen this year, but in 2 years who knows..

Not even in 2 years. Blu Ray discs are significantly more expensive than DVDs. The vast majority of consumers are price sensitive. Offer DVDs next to Blu Rays and you'll see no movement on BDs.

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post #114 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

. Offer DVDs next to Blu Rays and you'll see no movement on BDs.

That's my point. Don't release new titles in DVD format.

As it is DVD is perceived as the 'inferior' format. Consumers expect to pay less for it. Eventually they'll expect to pay next to nothing. I think the studios will move quickly to kill off DVDs as their won't be enough money in them to keep them around.
post #115 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Not even in 2 years. Blu Ray discs are significantly more expensive than DVDs. The vast majority of consumers are price sensitive. Offer DVDs next to Blu Rays and you'll see no movement on BDs.

I've already gone through this, twice.

They're not.

How do you think they sell BD now? Right next to the DVD racks, on a rack or two of their own, with the BD sign.

And, as I've already brought up, More BD movies have already been sold this year than all of last year, and I think, all the past years included.
post #116 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I've already gone through this, twice.

They're not.

How do you think they sell BD now? Right next to the DVD racks, on a rack or two of their own, with the BD sign.

And, as I've already brought up, More BD movies have already been sold this year than all of last year, and I think, all the past years included.

And how many BD movies have sold compared to the run of the mill DVD? Odds are, not very many.

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post #117 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

And how many BD movies have sold compared to the run of the mill DVD? Odds are, not very many.

That doesn't matter.

How many DVD's sold the first year after they came out compared to VHS?

It's the trajectory that's important, not the actual numbers.

25% of US households now have hi rez screens. Those people (myself included) are migrating to hi rez sources. there are only two.

Broadcast from different companies, and BD. Downloads don't count just yet.

Of the two, BD gives a much better picture. no one argues that.

It's wrong to think that people who have just spent thousands on a large screen, and very possibly a few thousand more on surround sound, won't spend a few hundred more for BD, plus the movie disks.

People are forgetting that DVD was very expensive when it first came out, as was CD before that, and video tape before that.

In fact, all of those previous audio and video formats were much MORE expensive when they first came out, once inflation is taken into account.

Somehow, they were all successful.

It's possible that five years from now, when enough people have FIOS, or the equivalent speed service, we may get high quality video downloads. But, until then, BD will become, at least, fairly popular.
post #118 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

That doesn't matter.

How many DVD's sold the first year after they came out compared to VHS?

It's the trajectory that's important, not the actual numbers.

25% of US households now have hi rez screens. Those people (myself included) are migrating to hi rez sources. there are only two.

Broadcast from different companies, and BD. Downloads don't count just yet.

Of the two, BD gives a much better picture. no one argues that.

It's wrong to think that people who have just spent thousands on a large screen, and very possibly a few thousand more on surround sound, won't spend a few hundred more for BD, plus the movie disks.

People are forgetting that DVD was very expensive when it first came out, as was CD before that, and video tape before that.

In fact, all of those previous audio and video formats were much MORE expensive when they first came out, once inflation is taken into account.

Somehow, they were all successful.

It's possible that five years from now, when enough people have FIOS, or the equivalent speed service, we may get high quality video downloads. But, until then, BD will become, at least, fairly popular.

I don't necessarily disagree with your statements Mel, but you're missing out on a big part of the calculation. The move from VHS to DVD did not require buying a new TV set. The move from DVD to Blu Ray basically does.

Granted, more people will be 'forced' into upgrading their sets thanks to our upcoming switchover to digital broadcast, but many, many more will keep their current sets and just buy a converter box... AND they'll stick with the cheaper format of DVD.

I give Blue Ray a minimum 5 year widespread adoption curve, much like DVD.

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post #119 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I don't necessarily disagree with your statements Mel, but you're missing out on a big part of the calculation. The move from VHS to DVD did not require buying a new TV set. The move from DVD to Blu Ray basically does.

Granted, more people will be 'forced' into upgrading their sets thanks to our upcoming switchover to digital broadcast, but many, many more will keep their current sets and just buy a converter box... AND they'll stick with the cheaper format of DVD.

I give Blue Ray a minimum 5 year widespread adoption curve, much like DVD.

Buying a new Tv set isn't the problem. It's the cause.

People were buying these new, big, hi def Tv's, not because of HD DVD or BD, but because of cable and satellite. Sports, sports, sports, movies, movies, movies.

The fact that 25% of US homes now has one, and that the uptake, even in this recession, is still increasing at a good clip, shows that the means to show a BD movie exists, and is increasing.

Sales of PS3's have been shown to be a good reason why BD movies are increasing in sales as more people buy them for the dual use. As the price of stand-alone players decreases, the movie sales will go even higher.

If Apple refuses to put a BD player, at least, in its machines, the ten and more times larger PC market will do so. And people DO watch movies on their computer. Don't forget that monitor sizes are getting larger as well. The 20" "standard" is giving way to the 22" And at least one manufacturer, though I forget which one, has now introduced a 22" with 1920 x 1080 (or 1200) rez. Can others be far behind?

The fact that sales of BD movies will increase several hundred percent over last year is also telling. And before you question the several hundred percent statement, remember that the more than twice last years sales already for BD movies, is a number that is about %125 -150% of all of last years sales. Those numbers were from the end of March! That's just 25% of the year.

No, BD will do very well.

What is the lifetime? I don't know, nor does anyone else. I would say that five years is a minimum of strong sales, perhaps reaching a peak about then, but having good sales extending for several years beyond that. The usual normal curve.

And that's all that can be expected these days.

We don't really know how the rollout of really fast broadband is going to be. That will decide the fate of all of these industries.
post #120 of 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

We don't really know how the rollout of really fast broadband is going to be. That will decide the fate of all of these industries.

Considering George Gilder once said widely available broadband was 'just around the corner'...

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