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Report: Apple places order for 24-25 million 3G iPhones - Page 2

post #41 of 77
4/28/08 at 3:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

No its not difficult. I'm sure Apple isn't thinking about Sprint. Why produce a CDMA for Verizon when you know it will offer LTE in a few years.

Because it doesn't cost a tremendous amount of money to engineer a CDMA version, and CDMA will be Verizon's mainstay for another couple of years, at least.

Why miss out on all that revenue? Verizon iPhone sales would easily outstrip Apple's outlay to make a CDMA version, unless the iPhone completely bombed on Verizon. Which I doubt it would. Not to mention that Apple might have to make a CDMA version anyway, for the Korean market.


Quote:
Verizon would not say no now.

See samab's comment. Verizon did indeed beat ATT in net customer adds in Q1, even with the iPhone in play. VZW is a very tough, very bottom-line oriented company (even by big-corporation standards), and may figure that Apple still needs them more than Verizon needs Apple.

I think they'd be wrong in that calculation, but it doesn't mean they won't make it. Again.

It's like NBC vs Apple... NBC wants very much to sell stuff on iTunes, but not on Apple's terms. But if Apple gave even a little bit...


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post #42 of 77
4/28/08 at 3:27pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

A lot were either free or close to it. Motorola started whoring it up pretty bad with the RAZR after only a year or two. That's why the RAZR brand doesn't mean too much anymore.

That and the fact that every phonemaker has thin phones now.


.

And the fact that its useless for anything but making calls.
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post #43 of 77
4/28/08 at 5:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

And the fact that its useless for anything, including making calls.

t, ftfy.
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post #44 of 77
4/28/08 at 5:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gloss View Post

t, ftfy.



Thanks.
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post #45 of 77
4/28/08 at 6:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timon View Post

If Apple came out with a world phone, both GSM & CDMA, then there would be no market they could not enter.

iirc, Qualcomm created a chip with 3G UMTS (like the rumoured 3G iPhone) as well as CDMA (like Verizon's network, instead of GSM) - but I'm not sure it's so easy to create a new iPhone with different chips just like that. I also don't think they'll want the extra size of supporting several different networks - it'd have to be a different iPhone.

Besides, Apple may be more focussed on where it wants to be in 2 years time than on building multiple models for multiple networks today.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tailpipe View Post

Nokia must be peeing in its proverbial pants. Of course, Apple isn't gunning for Nokia; it's got RIM in its sights. Terminate with extreme prejudice.

Is it targeting RIM? Or Nokia? The iPhone seems to be uniquely trying to create a new device... it is targeting an idea that Apple (or steve) has envisaged (a target which happens to take market share from Nokia, RIM, & Apple's own iPods).

Or in other words - the iPod has incredible market & mindshare, and Apple is planning on evolving that concept, morphing it into a 'Mainstream Wi-Fi Mobile Platform' (as they called it). If they tried to make the iPhone do everything the RIM does, they'd miss defining the future.


edit: That's not to say they won't add other functions. Just that the iPhone/iTouch designers are creating an amazing unique device... without being held back by other ideas. It's almost like many other RIM-competitive functions are an after thought that is not allowed to define the core device in any way, but can be added if it fits within the model.
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post #46 of 77
4/28/08 at 7:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregAlexander View Post

iirc, Qualcomm created a chip with 3G UMTS (like the rumoured 3G iPhone) as well as CDMA (like Verizon's network, instead of GSM) - but I'm not sure it's so easy to create a new iPhone with different chips just like that. I also don't think they'll want the extra size of supporting several different networks - it'd have to be a different iPhone.

Besides, Apple may be more focussed on where it wants to be in 2 years time than on building multiple models for multiple networks today.

I don't see it happening either. First of all, I don't see the AT&T deal allowing this even if I thought Apple wanted to. Secondly, While adding a CDMA version would sell enough units to justify the R&D, I don't think it's big enough [for Apple] to justify having a CDMA version. The average person couldn't tell you what CDMA or GSM is and Apple run by Jobs will hold true to his desire give his designers, salespeople, and the public an absolute focus.

Quote:
Is it targeting RIM? Or Nokia? The iPhone seems to be uniquely trying to create a new device... it is targeting an idea that Apple (or steve) has envisaged (a target which happens to take market share from Nokia, RIM, & Apple's own iPods).

Or in other words - the iPod has incredible market & mindshare, and Apple is planning on evolving that concept, morphing it into a 'Mainstream Wi-Fi Mobile Platform' (as they called it). If they tried to make the iPhone do everything the RIM does, they'd miss defining the future.

edit: That's not to say they won't add other functions. Just that the iPhone/iTouch designers are creating an amazing unique device... without being held back by other ideas. It's almost like many other RIM-competitive functions are an after thought that is not allowed to define the core device in any way, but can be added if it fits within the model.

I don't see Apple as targeting one single company. Many iPhone users are coming to the smartphone market from cheap non-smartphones, too. Apple will be pulling customers from all manufactures and all types of phones.
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post #47 of 77
4/28/08 at 7:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post



Thanks.

You're very welcome.

I suffered with a Verizon RAZR for two years, and let me tell you, I never wanted to punch a phone in the face as much and as often as I did that one. It was a trainwreck.
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post #48 of 77
4/28/08 at 7:53pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism

Secondly, While adding a CDMA version would sell enough units to justify the R&D, I don't think it's big enough to justify having a CDMA version.


Um, really?

CDMA is over 50 percent of the market in Apple's home country, the US of A. It's big in Korea as well. Worldwide, there's over 430 million CDMA users.

Sure, GSM is more popular worldwide, and by quite a wide margin. But given the benefit-to-cost ratio of putting it out, an eventual CDMA version seems like a no-brainer for Apple.

IF they can come to terms with the big CDMA carriers. \


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post #49 of 77
4/28/08 at 8:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Um, really?

Yeah. If I'm right Apple won't release a CDMA version, if I'm wrong they will. If it were me I'd release a CDMA version, but I'm not the focused, tyrannical, grudge holding CEO of Apple.
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post #50 of 77
4/28/08 at 8:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Yeah. If I'm right Apple won't release a CDMA version, if I'm wrong they will. If it were me I'd release a CDMA version, but I'm not the focused, tyrannical, grudge holding CEO of Apple.


LOL. Well said.


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post #51 of 77
4/28/08 at 8:37pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Because it doesn't cost a tremendous amount of money to engineer a CDMA version, and CDMA will be Verizon's mainstay for another couple of years, at least.

Why miss out on all that revenue?

.

It's called a contract, and it's between Apple and ATT.
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post #52 of 77
4/28/08 at 8:47pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

It's called a contract, and it's between Apple and ATT.


Yep, but contracts run out. And the Apple-ATT one increasingly looks like its not the five-year one originally reported, more like two years, with an option to go five. An option which Apple probably won't pick up. So we are perhaps only one year away from Apple going multicarrier in the US.

After all, why sell to only 25% of the US market, when you can sell to all of it? \


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post #53 of 77
4/28/08 at 8:54pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

After all, why sell to only 25% of the US market, when you can sell to all of it? \

I was under the impression that AT&T/Cingular accounted for 35-40% of the total number US cell subscribers.
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post #54 of 77
4/28/08 at 8:54pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Yep, but contracts run out. And the Apple-ATT one increasingly looks like its not the five-year one originally reported, more like two years, with an option to go five. An option which Apple probably won't pick up. So we are perhaps only one year away from Apple going multicarrier in the US.
.

Increasingly? What evidence is there about the length of the contract since it was signed over a year ago?
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post #55 of 77
4/28/08 at 9:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I was under the impression that AT&T/Cingular accounted for 35-40% of the total number US cell subscribers.


Sigh. Make me do the math, huh?

According to CTIA.org, there's currently 258.1 million wireless subscribers in the US. Of those, 71.3 million are ATT.

Doing the figures... that's 27.6%. Happy now?



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post #56 of 77
4/28/08 at 9:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Sigh. Make me do the math, huh?
According to CTIA.org, there's currently 258.1 million wireless subscribers in the US. Of those, 71.3 million are ATT.
Doing the figures... that's 27.6%. Happy now?

Thanks.

In my defense, I do plenty of calculations and research on this forum.
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post #57 of 77
4/28/08 at 9:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Increasingly? What evidence is there about the length of the contract since it was signed over a year ago?


There's not direct evidence from the horse's mouth, since ATT and Apple did not choose to announce the details of their contract (and there are good reasons for this, if you think about them).

But, if you follow the reporting on the ATT-Apple relationship, it was often reported as a "five year deal" early on (though Apple and ATT themselves used the vague term "multi-year" deal a lot, IIRC).

Then later, it somehow transitioned to a "two year deal" in many stories. For example, this one from the Times Online:


Hotz’s intervention means the US phone can run without AT&T, with whom Apple has a two-year exclusive deal. AT&T has paid undisclosed millions for the deal.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle2326835.ece


Again, my feeling? Two year ironclad exclusive, with an option to go five (that Apple likely won't exercise). We'll know next year.


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post #58 of 77
4/28/08 at 9:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Thanks.

In my defense, I do plenty of calculations and research on this forum.


Fair enough.

And yeah, ATT is NOT the dominant monster megalith some people think. Verizon is very nearly as large, and Sprint's not too far behind. Between them, the Big Three US carriers have almost 75% of the US market. I would think Apple would eventually want to sell to all of the Big Three, plus perhaps T-Mobile as well.

No, I will not calculate their exact combined marketshare number for you.


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post #59 of 77
4/28/08 at 10:23pm
Is Apple's current U..S iPhone service formally tied to AT&T for five years (from the initial roll out)? Is there an option that would allow Apple and/or iPhone users to go with a different service provider (without hacking/breaking the iPhone)? I would LOVE to buy an iPhone, but AT&T service would make the device merely an "i". Is this arrangement with AT&T set in granite?
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post #60 of 77
4/28/08 at 10:33pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Personally, being a US citizen I will continue to use AT&T

Is that really important? (serious question).

I mean I pick Vodafone as my mobile network because it is the cheapest and provides good service (and I like to support the underdog). Telstra is the only Australian owned network but they're a monopoly in fixed line services and they play nasty, and I don't want to support that.

Phone wise I pick whichever I like best (none are made in Australia)

I mean.. should the European users ignore Apple and stick with Nokia to support EU companies?
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post #61 of 77
4/28/08 at 10:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregAlexander View Post

Phone wise I pick whichever I like best (none are made in Australia)

That was the point of my post. i prefer the iPhone and will prefer it more when it's 3G. If it's only GSM then I have only one choice for a carrier: AT&T. Verizon and Sprint are CDMA, and T-Mobiel uses different frequencies for 3G data that will not be compatible with a 3G iPhone.

So... I'd rather be under contract than pay more for a cellphone that is unlocked, because I won't be using it on other US carriers. For travel I have unlocked it and used it on foreign networks with other SIMs. I will continue to do that if possible and will keep my 2G iPhone as an unlocked backup for travel until the new one is unlockable.

I hope that clears it up.
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post #62 of 77
4/28/08 at 11:44pm
Thanks for that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

So... I'd rather be under contract than pay more for a cellphone that is unlocked, because I won't be using it on other US carriers. For travel I have unlocked it and used it on foreign networks with other SIMs. I will continue to do that if possible and will keep my 2G iPhone as an unlocked backup for travel until the new one is unlockable.

Rumour has it that Australia will receive unlocked phones on at least 2 of our networks.

However, I suspect I won't pay more for an unlocked phone than I would have for a locked phone - because I believe I'll get a price-subsidised iPhone and be locked into a 2 year contract with Optus or Vodafone.

eg: They already give away $800 phones on $50/mth contracts. So a $1300 unlocked iPhone might cost $500 on a 2 year contract. (Then again... can an iPhone really cost that much more to make than an iPod Touch?)

Anyway, this still fulfils Apple's goal of making the iPhone cost something (... people treat their "free" phones badly even if they're worth $800)

I'm really surprised AT&T isn't pushing that. Anyone who buys a phone could be locked into a 2 year contract with AT&T automatically.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

T-Mobiel uses different frequencies for 3G data that will not be compatible with a 3G iPhone.

Really? T-mobile doesn't use the European standard frequencies OR the 850Mhz (AT&T) frequencies? What do they use?

edit: Interesting.
3G in Europe uses 2100Mhz as well as 1900Mhz, as standard. (2G /GSM in Europe uses 900Mhz & 1800Mhz)

GSM in the US uses 1900Mhz.
AT&T uses 850Mhz for 3G, and perhaps some 1900Mhz (taken from 2G)
T-mobile will use both 1700Mhz and 2100Mhz.

I read a rumour (yes, really, a 3G iPhone rumour!) that it would work on both 850Mhz and 2100Mhz. That would make it work in Europe & US (and would also work on T-mobile in the US).
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post #63 of 77
4/28/08 at 11:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gmo View Post

Is Apple's current U..S iPhone service formally tied to AT&T for five years (from the initial roll out)? Is there an option that would allow Apple and/or iPhone users to go with a different service provider (without hacking/breaking the iPhone)? I would LOVE to buy an iPhone, but AT&T service would make the device merely an "i". Is this arrangement with AT&T set in granite?


It's an exclusive deal, so yeah, it is set in granite, but likely only for the first two years (i.e. through mid-'09).

But again, only Apple and ATT know for certain. I too am in an area where ATT kinda sucks, so I'm going to wait 'til next summer to see what develops. Though I will be drooling over the 3G iPhone when it arrives.


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post #64 of 77
4/28/08 at 11:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

That was the point of my post. i prefer the iPhone and will prefer it more when it's 3G. If it's only GSM then I have only one choice for a carrier: AT&T. Verizon and Sprint are CDMA, and T-Mobiel uses different frequencies for 3G data that will not be compatible with a 3G iPhone.


Wasn't Electric Monk talking awhile back about some snazzy new tri-band 3G chips that could handle pretty much any frequency you'd be likely to run into, worldwide?


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post #65 of 77
4/29/08 at 12:05am
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregAlexander View Post

Really? T-mobile doesn't use the European standard frequencies OR the 850Mhz (AT&T) frequencies? What do they use?

For the US, T-Mobile had to get the bandwidth which it won in September 2006 (Only a year and a half ago, so their 4G coverage probably won't be so hot anyway). They won part oft he 1700MHz and 2100MHz spectrums for their 3G network. I'm under the impression that it won't have the 2100Mhz (down) or 1700MHz (up) spectrums required for T-Mobile 3G data.

•

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSM_fre...ti-mode_phones

"Five and Six band phones (800/850/900/1700/1900/2100) are possible but none has been announced."
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quad-band#3G
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post #66 of 77
4/29/08 at 1:17am
I don't know who will be welling to pay more for unlocked iPhone when you can unlocked it yourself for free!! The new tools allow you to restore your iPhone back to the original configuration it you want to take it for service. I have a AT&T for my iPhone and will unlock my iPhone this summer when I go overseas.

I think Apple know that they screw up with the use of exclusive carriers for the iPhone, specially in EU. Unlike the US, in Europe you have to pay roaming charges when you move between states. So, it is much cheaper just to buy a prepaid line in the country you are visiting instead of using your home country line. Apple need to dump the current iPhone model and start selling the unlocked iPhone through other retailers world wide even in places where they don't have official Apple store. Otherwise, I don't see how they even sell 10 mil this year. From what I have been reading, I don't think the 3G iPhone will be much good in term of sales if the don't change the way they do business.
Few years ago, I bought my P900 for more than $700 overseas and it was 4 months after release. I think $500 is fair price for an official unlocked iPhone. Most who bought the iPhone early have already paid ($599 + tax + $36 activation fee - $100 Apple store credit).
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post #67 of 77
4/29/08 at 1:57am
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Um, really?

CDMA is over 50 percent of the market in Apple's home country, the US of A. It's big in Korea as well. Worldwide, there's over 430 million CDMA users.

CDMA is big in Canada too. We only have one GSM provder, and there are vast areas of the country where it gets no signal. A lot of people think that Rogers playing hardball is why we don't have the iPhone here yet, but I'm more inclined to believe it's because there's no point in entering the Canadian market if you don't have a CDMA product.
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post #68 of 77
4/29/08 at 2:17am
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

I don't know if it's all hype but seems to me the whole world has been waiting for the 3G version.

Well, it's surely not the "whole" world. Being a European, in Europe, I can only speak from the experience with the several dozen people I know who own an iPhone, but none of them gave didli about 3G, all of them got an iPhone from the US and most of them did so because of the pricing plans in Europe.
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post #69 of 77
4/29/08 at 4:18am
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Um, really?

CDMA is over 50 percent of the market in Apple's home country, the US of A. It's big in Korea as well. Worldwide, there's over 430 million CDMA users.

Sure, GSM is more popular worldwide, and by quite a wide margin. But given the benefit-to-cost ratio of putting it out, an eventual CDMA version seems like a no-brainer for Apple.

IF they can come to terms with the big CDMA carriers. \


.

but in those markets isn't there also GSM? so people would just move on over....with the iphone
IT'S THE PHONE NOT THE NETWORK THAT'S PUSHING THIS
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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post #70 of 77
4/29/08 at 7:13am
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

but in those markets isn't there also GSM? so people would just move on over....with the iphone
IT'S THE PHONE NOT THE NETWORK THAT'S PUSHING THIS


We wish.

But if you check out the recent results, Verizon (CDMA) just beat ATT (GSM) in customer net adds this past quarter. Even with the iPhone on ATT's side. \

Even with the upcoming 3G iPhone hitting soon, I wouldn't bet on CDMA dropping below 50 percent marketshare in the US anytime soon. There's plenty of places where ATT doesn't have good service.


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post #71 of 77
4/29/08 at 7:18am
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsenka View Post

CDMA is big in Canada too. We only have one GSM provder, and there are vast areas of the country where it gets no signal. A lot of people think that Rogers playing hardball is why we don't have the iPhone here yet, but I'm more inclined to believe it's because there's no point in entering the Canadian market if you don't have a CDMA product.


Looks like Rogers (GSM) finally got the deal, for better or worse:

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...this_year.html

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post #72 of 77
4/29/08 at 2:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregAlexander View Post

eg: They already give away $800 phones on $50/mth contracts. So a $1300 unlocked iPhone might cost $500 on a 2 year contract. (Then again... can an iPhone really cost that much more to make than an iPod Touch?)

There are those two little words - "to make"

I hope everyone realizes that production costs and sales prices are totally unrelated. I'm so tired of hearing how the iPhone must cost not much more to make than the Touch.
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post #73 of 77
4/29/08 at 2:11pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

There are those two little words - "to make"

I hope everyone realizes that production costs and sales prices are totally unrelated. I'm so tired of hearing how the iPhone must cost not much more to make than the Touch.

True. To start, the iPhone definitely has phone, WiFi, EDGE & Bluetooth radios (I think iTouch only has WiFi), probably quite a bit bigger battery, and the screen is clearly nicer. I can easily tell the iTouch screen dithers, the iPhone screen does not dither that I can tell. Most phones I've looked at use dithering in some form, I think it's annoying.
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post #74 of 77
4/29/08 at 3:08pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I hope everyone realizes that production costs and sales prices are totally unrelated. I'm so tired of hearing how the iPhone must cost not much more to make than the Touch.

Perhaps I'm missing what you're trying to say... could you clarify?

I'm also wondering why you think that the sales price of a product isn't related to its cost ... the standard commercial model is to make something at a certain cost per unit, factor in overall design charges/marketing etc, add a profit and set the sales price. Then supply and demand is the other factor - Apple has a product that others do not have yet, so they can set higher prices for now.

So back to my post you were replying to:
I said that the iPhone might be sold for $1300, but get an $800 discount by signing up to a 2 year contract. I then wondered if $1300 for the iPhone was a realistic price when the iPod Touch is so much cheaper.

I get that Apple might charge far more for the iPhone than their cost, since it's so popular and they sustain the demand. Is that what you mean when you say iPhone cost isn't related to sales price? Or is there something else?
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post #75 of 77
4/29/08 at 4:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregAlexander View Post

I get that Apple might charge far more for the iPhone than their cost, since it's so popular and they sustain the demand. Is that what you mean when you say iPhone cost isn't related to sales price? Or is there something else?

Exactly. The retail price of the iPhone has nothing to do with how much it cost to produce. Apple determines from supply and demand how much they can charge. Look at it this way - if the iPhone had some craftsmanship that caused it to cost $5000 to produce, do you think they should charge $5500 for it?
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post #76 of 77
4/29/08 at 4:18pm
Quote:
CDMA is over 50 percent of the market in Apple's home country, the US of A. It's big in Korea as well. Worldwide, there's over 430 million CDMA users.

GSM holds 85% of the world market and has 2 billion users over 200 countries.

Quote:
And yeah, ATT is NOT the dominant monster megalith some people think. Verizon is very nearly as large, and Sprint's not too far behind. Between them, the Big Three US carriers have almost 75% of the US market. I would think Apple would eventually want to sell to all of the Big Three, plus perhaps T-Mobile as well.

The iPhone will be on Verizon when they use LTE. Sprint is going a whole different direction with WiMax.
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post #77 of 77
4/29/08 at 4:38pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

GSM holds 85% of the world market and has 2 billion users over 200 countries.

Yah, I know. You must've stopped reading before the part where I said the following:

Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins

Sure, GSM is more popular worldwide, and by quite a wide margin.

...

Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell

The iPhone will be on Verizon when they use LTE. Sprint is going a whole different direction with WiMax.

Still wouldn't count out the possibility of a CDMA iPhone. They'll likely need it for Korea, and if the ATT exclusive is only two years, they'll want one for Verizon and/or Sprint (who won't be fully WiMax for awhile yet), not to mention Alltel. Assuming Apple can come to a deal with any of them.


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Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
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Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
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