Originally Posted by franksargent
You act like exit polls are cast in concrete, when it's a given that people will
change their minds once the Democratic nominee is selected.
I have conceded that point several times now.
People exiting the polling booth have invested "intellectual ownership" in the person they voted for. So saying something while exiting the polls now, with their then current vested interest, will not reflect what choice these same people will make 5+ months now.
Enough to completely negate the effect? There's nothing to indicate that's true.
Also in the general election, we can expect about a 2X increase in total voter turnout, and I'd argue that most of them did not have a strong opinion on the Democratic nominee, otherwise they would have voted in the primary, IMHO.
I'd argue that's completely wrong. Obviously you're ignorant of the polling data...unless you're saying we can't trust any polling data at all.
Regardless, let's address three points here:
1. Republicans are not going to vote for Obama in any numbers that matter...no matter what the media tells you.
2. There will be some Democrats
that won't support Obama. The number looks to be larger than in previous nominating contests, even in somewhat liberal states.
3. Independents are expressing serious concerns about Obama. Additionally, McCain carries real strength with independents.
Those three points add up to problems for Obama. His only real strength is among more liberal Democrats. McCain will take the right, center right and the majority of the center...maybe even a small percentage of center-left. Obama will take the left and hard left, and an majority (though not a huge one) of the center left. He will likely lose the lions's share of the center itself. Therein lies the problem.
Lastly, I understand your attempt to disregard national polls based on your assumption that voting patterns, for some odd reason do not correlate with Electoral College totals.
I don't disregard them entirely. They are useful for showing trends and overall mood of the country.
The point is you can't discount it completely in a close national election.
It really depends on what one is doing with the data.
Also, that's where state polling data becomes critical, after both nominees have been selected, not before, as you have tried to do with Democratic exit polling data.
Wait...weren't YOU just arguing that Obama was up in PA at the moment?
Keep in mind, I was talking about EXIT POLLING in states that had just voted., not general opinion polling conducted in states where McCain's name hasn't been mentioned in 6 months.
So of the two, Democratic exit polling data versus national polling data, at this time, it appears to me that national polling data better reflects choices all voters will make, versus a subset of Democratic primary voters, who are more then likely to change their minds given an additional 5+ months to listen and ponder each candidate's message.
To me it appears that is an absurd
argument. You're saying that polling of persons who actually voted within the last 10 days is not as valid
as national opinion polls and state-by-state polls in states where the GOP nomination has been over for months. Of course, right before that, you claimed that the state polling data wasn't valid at this point at all.