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Obama's "Appalachia Problem" - Page 5

post #161 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell View Post

But Montana is polling strongly for Obama, which is also low down on that list in income. And Utah, North D, and South D are also white and down low on that income list, but also went for Obama.

The way the data look, it's all about black population, with the exception of Appalachia.

But where are KY and WV with respect to the CSA? Both these states permitted slavery. That's the key difference, location, location, location. UT, MT, SD, and ND never experienced slavery or legalized discrimination/segregation.

Oh, and on a personal note, coming to MS from VT in the early 80's, I'd never seen a toilet seat shield (seat paper), covert racism if you ask me.

Oh, and if you exclude Jefferson County, KY (which included Louisville), Clinton's victory margin was 46.96%, while her victory margin for WV was 44.95%. Coincidence? I think not.

Jefferson County, KY is 18.99% black, and Louisville, KY is 35.22% black.
Every eye fixed itself upon him; with parted lips and bated breath the audience hung upon his words, taking no note of time, rapt in the ghastly fascinations of the tale. NOT!
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Every eye fixed itself upon him; with parted lips and bated breath the audience hung upon his words, taking no note of time, rapt in the ghastly fascinations of the tale. NOT!
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post #162 of 163
frank: I think your "confederate states" hypothesis may be the better one than the "black population + appalachia" idea, because of its parsimony. Black populations are obviously concentrated in the old slave states, so it accounts for that aspect of it, and it also accounts for the appalachia exception.
post #163 of 163
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post

1. They never were to begin with. It's a moot point.

Well at least we agree there.

Quote:

2. There will be some Republicans that won't support McCain. Another moot point.

No, not the same thing. We don't see significant numbers of Republicans saying they won't vote for McCain. Conservatives will still vote for him because he's a better option than Obama.

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3. Independents are expressing serious concerns about McCain.

Support?

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Additionally, Obama carries real strength with independents. A third moot point.

No, not against McCain, he doesn't. That's what I'm telling you. More moderate voters will go to McCain.

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My data sources, you ask? Same as yours, from thin air.

Uh, I provided actual data, champ. I showed that a significant numbers of Democrats say they won't vote for Obama...even in Oregon, which is hippie-heaven. .
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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