or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › 2.5m AT&T iPhone users; Piper on WWDC Macs; 3G stock panic
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

2.5m AT&T iPhone users; Piper on WWDC Macs; 3G stock panic - Page 4

post #121 of 189
One mistake that's being made here is that some people are trying to make it out that if the iPhone isn't the only reason, or almost the only reason why people are crossing over to AT&T, then it isn't very important. That's so wrong, it's difficult to emphasize it enough.

No matter what, it's just one model of phone. ONE!

No matter how good, or popular it is, it's just ONE.

How does anyone in their right mind expect ONE phone to make up a large part of anything?

It can't!

The fact is that the numbers at Verison and AT&T don't matter at all in this discussion. The only thing we're talking about is the impact that the ONE iPhone model has had. And that's pretty large for ONE phone.

How many phone models does AT&T sell, or give away? How many does Verison have? That's the question to ask.

If the iPhone made up 13% of all new customers that came to AT&T, how many other phones would it have been competing against?

IF AT&T is not as good as Verison, that tells us even more about how important the iPhone is. Makes it even more relevant. Since it's agreed in the industry that AT&T gets about $95+ from the iPhone compared to about $50 for all other phones, it's bringing up AT&T's numbers as well. Prepaid brings those numbers down.

There's no doubt that its brought a big boost to AT&T. Denying that is just not sustainable, or believable.
post #122 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

One mistake that's being made here is that some people are trying to make it out that if the iPhone isn't the only reason, or almost the only reason why people are crossing over to AT&T, then it isn't very important. That's so wrong, it's difficult to emphasize it enough.

There's no doubt that its brought a big boost to AT&T. Denying that is just not sustainable, or believable.

I think that the mistake is the other way around --- that the iphone is the only reason or almost the only reason why people are coming over to AT&T. Various carriers have acknowledged that a lot of people migrated to the $99 unlimited voice plan --- in a number that is greater than the iphone subscriber numbers.

It's not really a big boost --- when there is 1.5 million net adds of prepaid bringing in something like $15 a month and then 360K iphones bringing in $95 a month. It's like a 4:1 ratio --- average the 2 numbers out and you have the ARPU down to $31 a month.
post #123 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

...there is 1.5 million net adds of prepaid bringing in something like $15 a month and then 360K iphones bringing in $95 a month. It's like a 4:1 ratio --- average the 2 numbers out and you have the ARPU down to $31 a month.

You might want to revise your number to better suit your argument. Since are saying that the iPhone addition adds a minimal gain averaging out the two makes no sense. Using your number we see that the iPhone with less than 25% the number of prepaid phones accounts for more than 50% more revenue pre month.

1,500,000 x $15 = $22,500,000

..360,000 x $95 = $34,200,000
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #124 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

I think that the mistake is the other way around --- that the iphone is the only reason or almost the only reason why people are coming over to AT&T. Various carriers have acknowledged that a lot of people migrated to the $99 unlimited voice plan --- in a number that is greater than the iphone subscriber numbers.

It's not really a big boost --- when there is 1.5 million net adds of prepaid bringing in something like $15 a month and then 360K iphones bringing in $95 a month. It's like a 4:1 ratio --- average the 2 numbers out and you have the ARPU down to $31 a month.

But, you're coming up with your own numbers. Where did you get $15? Is that a real number, or one you're just guessing at? After all the ARPU for the company is over $50, and from the number of iPhones, they can't be contributing more than a few dollars to that figure..
post #125 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

But, you're coming up with your own numbers. Where did you get $15? Is that a real number, or one you're just guessing at? After all the ARPU for the company is over $50, and from the number of iPhones, they can't be contributing more than a few dollars to that figure..

Tracfone's ARPU was $11 in 2008 Q1.

http://www.americamovil.com/docs/rep...ng/2008_1.html
post #126 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

You might want to revise your number to better suit your argument. Since are saying that the iPhone addition adds a minimal gain averaging out the two makes no sense. Using your number we see that the iPhone with less than 25% the number of prepaid phones accounts for more than 50% more revenue pre month.

1,500,000 x $15 = $22,500,000

..360,000 x $95 = $34,200,000

It certainly makes sense --- to illustrate that the iphone effect does not make or break AT&T's results. Average the two out is 1.86 million subscribers = $56.7 million, ARPU = $30.4.

If AT&T didn't concentrate on prepaid net adds, then they don't need the extra-ordinary iphone ARPU to average it back up. AT&T went to the extreme low end and the extreme high end --- because Verizon got the middle.
post #127 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

One mistake that's being made here is that some people are trying to make it out that if the iPhone isn't the only reason, or almost the only reason why people are crossing over to AT&T, then it isn't very important.

Even though the iPhone is obviously nowhere near being the sole or even biggest driver of ATT's growth in net adds, there is no doubt that it's quite important to ATT. It helps get 'butts in the door' (maybe not as much as shortly after launch, but still), and it's really helping out ATT in an area where they've been weak... data ARPU.

After all, one of ATT's Achilles heels has been that they've been so far behind Verizon and Sprint in rolling out their 3G network, and you want one of those, precisely for data ARPU reasons. So... if you can't get a 3G network up as fast as your competitors, what do you do? That's right, you get the exclusive rights to the device that will most drive mobile data usage, even if you're behind on the high-speed data network part of the equation... the iPhone.

Nice save on ATT's part, really.


Quote:
The fact is that the numbers at Verison and AT&T don't matter at all in this discussion.

Well, they kinda do, from ATT and Verizon's perspective anyway. They both see each other as their prime competition, especially now that Sprint's fading. A lot of what ATT does drives what VZW does, and a lot of what VZW does drives what ATT does. It's a war, pretty much.


Quote:
IF AT&T is not as good as Verison, that tells us even more about how important the iPhone is. Makes it even more relevant. Since it's agreed in the industry that AT&T gets about $95+ from the iPhone compared to about $50 for all other phones, it's bringing up AT&T's numbers as well. Prepaid brings those numbers down.

Exactly, the iPhone is a savior for ATT in ARPU and especially in data ARPU. What would be really interesting is to see some iPhone-only churn numbers, it may be helping ATT there as well.


Quote:
There's no doubt that its brought a big boost to AT&T. Denying that is just not sustainable, or believable.

It's not so much a matter of denying it, as it is putting it in perspective. Noting that ATT is doing fantastically well in prepaid and is benefiting from Sprint's self-destruction does not negate the iPhone's contribution. At least to me.

Though I will admit I am surprised at how mediocre ATT's postpaid numbers are, for such a large carrier. No doubt that without the iPhone, ATT's postpaid/contract numbers would be even lower.

So basically, what the iPhone has done fantastically well, in ARPU, data ARPU, 3G rollout, and postpaid, is shore up ATT where they are weak. It's no wonder that ATT jumped at the opportunity to get the iPhone, and was willing to give Apple so much. And, conversely, you can start to see why Verizon said no to the iPhone... they're doing pretty well in all those areas, and thus needed Apple less.


.
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
post #128 of 189
Oh, and I don't know what it is for Tracfone, but for Boost Mobile (another big prepay MVNO), APRU was around $29, last I checked.

.
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
post #129 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Tracfone's ARPU was $11 in 2008 Q1.

http://www.americamovil.com/docs/rep...ng/2008_1.html

Now you have to explain what that has to do with US cell companies, and AT&T here, as well.

I see no connection.
post #130 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Even though the iPhone is obviously nowhere near being the sole or even biggest driver of ATT's growth in net adds, there is no doubt that it's quite important to ATT. It helps get 'butts in the door' (maybe not as much as shortly after launch, but still), and it's really helping out ATT in an area where they've been weak... data ARPU.

After all, one of ATT's Achilles heels has been that they've been so far behind Verizon and Sprint in rolling out their 3G network, and you want one of those, precisely for data ARPU reasons. So... if you can't get a 3G network up as fast as your competitors, what do you do? That's right, you get the exclusive rights to the device that will most drive mobile data usage, even if you're behind on the high-speed data network part of the equation... the iPhone.

Nice save on ATT's part, really.




Well, they kinda do, from ATT and Verizon's perspective anyway. They both see each other as their prime competition, especially now that Sprint's fading. A lot of what ATT does drives what VZW does, and a lot of what VZW does drives what ATT does. It's a war, pretty much.




Exactly, the iPhone is a savior for ATT in ARPU and especially in data ARPU. What would be really interesting is to see some iPhone-only churn numbers, it may be helping ATT there as well.




It's not so much a matter of denying it, as it is putting it in perspective. Noting that ATT is doing fantastically well in prepaid and is benefiting from Sprint's self-destruction does not negate the iPhone's contribution. At least to me.

Though I will admit I am surprised at how mediocre ATT's postpaid numbers are, for such a large carrier. No doubt that without the iPhone, ATT's postpaid/contract numbers would be even lower.

So basically, what the iPhone has done fantastically well, in ARPU, data ARPU, 3G rollout, and postpaid, is shore up ATT where they are weak. It's no wonder that ATT jumped at the opportunity to get the iPhone, and was willing to give Apple so much. And, conversely, you can start to see why Verizon said no to the iPhone... they're doing pretty well in all those areas, and thus needed Apple less.


.

All I'm trying to say, and it's why I illustrated it with the other observations, is that with only one model phone in the mix as of now, Apple can't be expected to do more than add an incremental amount to any company's sales and bottom line. With just the one model iPhone, AT&T won't see a vast amount of take-up. They'll see take-up that can be expected from a pretty popular phone, which gives them about twice the revenue than the average phone.

That's what can be expected, and it's what we see.

Now, iF Apple does come up with a line of phones, say a low cost, mid priced, and deluxe range, with a couple of storage options for each, THEN we may see a stampede!

I say that AT&T and Verison's revenue and profit don't matter here, for this discussion of the iPhone's performance. Not that it doesn't matter to them. I meant that we should look to what the iPhone is adding to AT&T. Would AT&T have that same amount if it weren't for the iPhone? No. That's what I mean. The addition, not the total.

I'm not saying that you're denying it. but samab seems to be trying to.
post #131 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Now you have to explain what that has to do with US cell companies, and AT&T here, as well.

I see no connection.

America Movil owns Tracfone in the US.

Tracfone is the biggest reason why AT&T's numbers are so good for the last 2 years because Tracfone is a MVNO that uses AT&T's network.
post #132 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

America Movil owns Tracfone in the US.

Tracfone is the biggest reason why AT&T's numbers are so good for the last 2 years because Tracfone is a MVNO that uses AT&T's network.

That has nothing to do with it. That's a separate business for AT&T. They get paid for the use of their network, just as you say. There's no ARPU involved for AT&T here.
post #133 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I meant that we should look to what the iPhone is adding to AT&T. Would AT&T have that same amount if it weren't for the iPhone? No. That's what I mean. The addition, not the total.

I'm not saying that you're denying it. but samab seems to be trying to.

This is like Bill Gates laughing that he receives millions of spam everyday --- mostly on how to make a quick buck.

The value that the iphone is adding to AT&T --- is directly related to how competent AT&T is. If you know what you are doing (like Bill Gates and Verizon), then the iphone's value is dramatically reduced.
post #134 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

It's all relative. Is ATT happy to take in all those prepay customers? Sure, even with the lower APRU and higher churn they bring. But do they wish they were getting Verizon-like postpaid(contract) numbers as well? You bet they do. The 3G iPhone should be of some help there.

You guys attempt to make it all soundso much more dramatic than it really is. Verizon made 73 cents more in ARPU and only has a .5% better churn rate.In Q1

Verizon was actually down in new subscribers quarter over quarter from last year, while ATT was up. ATT had 4.3% higher service revenue growth.




Quote:
And yet somehow Verizon always beats ATT in customer loyalty/churn. Kinda confirms what JD Power and Consumer Reports wireless surveys consistently say, which is that there's a quality gap between the two carries, in VZW's favor.

Yes people are willing to pay the additional cost. But don't treat it like some mystery why Verizon has a higher ARPU. They charge more.


As prices continue to decline and other mobile companies improve services and phones. The tide could turn for Verizons pricing.
post #135 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

That has nothing to do with it. That's a separate business for AT&T. They get paid for the use of their network, just as you say. There's no ARPU involved for AT&T here.

Tracfone's 9+ million subcribers is included in AT&T's SEC filings. AT&T doesn't exclude Tracfone's numbers from their ARPU calculation.

Verizon Wireless does separate the numbers --- by giving out RETAIL numbers. They would state we have so many RETAIL subscribers, so many RETAIL postpaid subscribers and that their RETAIL postpaid subscribers have xxx amount in ARPU. Verizon has a bunch of OnStar MVNO subscribers --- which is under the WHOLESALE column.
post #136 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

As prices continue to decline and other mobile companies improve services and phones. The tide could turn for Verizons pricing.

AT&T's ARPU declined quarter to quarter over last year. Verizon's ARPU increased quarter to quarter over the last year.
post #137 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

This is like Bill Gates laughing that he receives millions of spam everyday --- mostly on how to make a quick buck.

The value that the iphone is adding to AT&T --- is directly related to how competent AT&T is. If you know what you are doing (like Bill Gates and Verizon), then the iphone's value is dramatically reduced.

This made absolutely no sense.
post #138 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

AT&T's ARPU declined quarter to quarter over last year. Verizon's ARPU increased quarter to quarter over the last year.

Looking at Sprint's ARPU this is next to meaningless.
post #139 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Looking at Sprint's ARPU this is next to meaningless.

Not your point though.

Verizon continues to charge more than anyone else and continues to bring in more net adds than anyone else.
post #140 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

This made absolutely no sense.

I think his idea is that the iPhone is somehow a substitute for being really special, like Verizon, and that, therefore, while the iPhone may somewhat drive ATT subscription rates, it doesn't really count because it's cheating.

Which is the most convoluted rationale for "the iPhone ain't shit" I've seen yet, and that's saying something.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
Reply
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
Reply
post #141 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Not your point though.

My point is that Verizon is doing slightly better than ATT at some data points. This largely has nothing to do directly with the iPhone itself.

Quote:
Verizon continues to charge more than anyone else and continues to bring in more net adds than anyone else.

I agree Verizons network coverage is its strength. This allows them to charge a premium but that does not mean it will continue to be this way.
post #142 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I think his idea is that the iPhone is somehow a substitute for being really special, like Verizon, and that, therefore, while the iPhone may somewhat drive ATT subscription rates, it doesn't really count because it's cheating.

Which is the most convoluted rationale for "the iPhone ain't shit" I've seen yet, and that's saying something.

The values fluctuate by what Apple is charging the carriers in their business model.

You people think like geeks --- the iphone is valued as "X" as a hardware/software combination. I say that the iphone is valued as "Y" as hardware/software/revenue sharing combo.

The same iphone would value a lot more without the revenue sharing.
post #143 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

My point is that Verizon is doing slightly better than ATT at some data points. This largely has nothing to do directly with the iPhone itself.

I agree Verizons network coverage is its strength. This allows them to charge a premium but that does not mean it will continue to be this way.

Basically all wireless carriers suck --- as long as Verizon suck less than the other carriers, then they will continue to charge more money than other carriers and still bring in more net adds than other carriers.
post #144 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

The values fluctuate by what Apple is charging the carriers in their business model.

You people think like geeks --- the iphone is valued as "X" as a hardware/software combination. I say that the iphone is valued as "Y" as hardware/software/revenue sharing combo.

The same iphone would value a lot more without the revenue sharing.

Yeah, and it would be worth even more if Apple payed ATT to use it, but that's not the case, is it?

You want to apply some arbitrary delta between "what the iPhone actually makes ATT" and "what the iPhone could make ATT under conditions I make up" and point to that delta as a downside, but the fact is that "what the iPhone actually makes ATT" is still a net positive, and a hefty one at that.

Implying that the iPhone is underperforming because in a parallel universe it might be more profitable than it is, is, as I say, convoluted.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
Reply
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
Reply
post #145 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

You guys attempt to make it all soundso much more dramatic than it really is. Verizon made 73 cents more in ARPU and only has a .5% better churn rate.In Q1

What you don't seem to get is that we're talking simply enormous numbers of subscribers here.

For carriers the size of Verizon and ATT, 73 cents more APRU amounts to around $150 million more in revenue, per quarter, and $600 million more per year. Now consider that Verizon has beaten ATT in APRU by something like double that in some quarters, and the difference comes to more than a $1 billion/year pace. So... a billion a year doesn't mean anything? Wha?

Oh, and churn... you gotta remember, those percentages are monthly, not quarterly.

For ATT, having a .5% higher churn than VZW's means that they lose a bit north of 1 million more customers per quarter to churn than if they had VZW's churn rate. Or, about 4.4 million more customers lost per year. That's the entire population of South Carolina... PER YEAR.

Again, far from chicken feed.


Quote:
Verizon was actually down in new subscribers quarter over quarter from last year, while ATT was up. ATT had 4.3% higher service revenue growth.

Again, unfortunately, a lot of ATT's growth was due to low-ARPU, high-churn prepaid customers. In postpaid/contract customers, VZW routinely out net-adds ATT... yup, even post-iPhone. Hopefully the 3G iPhone can help ATT here.


Quote:
Yes people are willing to pay the additional cost. But don't treat it like some mystery why Verizon has a higher ARPU. They charge more.

Not in voice... ATT and VZW's voice pricing is actually very similar. But elsewhere, yes, VZW does charge more... because they can. Because with their quality, coverage, and customer service, they can get away with it.

They can charge more than ATT in some areas and still come away with superior customer retention/lower churn.


Quote:
As prices continue to decline and other mobile companies improve services and phones. The tide could turn for Verizons pricing.

People have been saying this for years. If it is happening, it's happening extremely slowly. Basically, you can't say that the king is eventually going to fall off the hill... you have to push him. No one's really done that yet, though we are starting to see some dents in the armor. T-Mobile is consistently rated #1 in customer service, quarter after quarter, and ATT's prepay ops (and yes, the iPhone) have made them a force in overall net adds (though they still lag VZW in postpaid/contract).

.
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
post #146 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Looking at Sprint's ARPU this is next to meaningless.

ARPU is never meaningless... wireless execs would back over their grandmothers to get ARPU up.

It's just that a high ARPU doesn't automagically make your network flawlessly reliable or your customer service a paragon of excellence. And some of Sprint's high ARPU was 'bought'... Nextel had a very high ARPU, which is part of what made them an attractive acquisition for Sprint.

Though, ironically, the merger has ended up being a disaster for Sprint.


.
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
post #147 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

This is like Bill Gates laughing that he receives millions of spam everyday --- mostly on how to make a quick buck.

The value that the iphone is adding to AT&T --- is directly related to how competent AT&T is. If you know what you are doing (like Bill Gates and Verizon), then the iphone's value is dramatically reduced.

I have no idea what you're trying to say here.

Who says that Gates is competent? Wiley, not quite honest, sure.

The numbers show that the iPhone is adding high value. The numbers have been posted here several times. I you simply want to avoid them, go ahead.

At any rate, it makes no sense. Why do you say that the more competent AT&T is, the less value the iPhone has to them?
post #148 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Tracfone's 9+ million subcribers is included in AT&T's SEC filings. AT&T doesn't exclude Tracfone's numbers from their ARPU calculation.

Verizon Wireless does separate the numbers --- by giving out RETAIL numbers. They would state we have so many RETAIL subscribers, so many RETAIL postpaid subscribers and that their RETAIL postpaid subscribers have xxx amount in ARPU. Verizon has a bunch of OnStar MVNO subscribers --- which is under the WHOLESALE column.

It's listed under leased lines, etc. an entirely different business. It's not listed under ARPU from phones.
post #149 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I think his idea is that the iPhone is somehow a substitute for being really special, like Verizon, and that, therefore, while the iPhone may somewhat drive ATT subscription rates, it doesn't really count because it's cheating.

Which is the most convoluted rationale for "the iPhone ain't shit" I've seen yet, and that's saying something.

I assume he likes to pay more.
post #150 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

The values fluctuate by what Apple is charging the carriers in their business model.

You people think like geeks --- the iphone is valued as "X" as a hardware/software combination. I say that the iphone is valued as "Y" as hardware/software/revenue sharing combo.

The same iphone would value a lot more without the revenue sharing.

You're describing its value to Apple, not AT&T. AT&T's value from the iPhone is the ARPU, which has been establised as being almost twice that of other phones from any company, AT&T, Verison, Sprint, etc.

Why do you ignore that over and again?
post #151 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Because with their quality, coverage, and customer service, they can get away with it.

While the quality of their network is pretty good, the quality of their service is not. Every Verison customer I know complains about the service. That's true from what I read in forums as well. I've not seen a reliable survey saying that their service was superior.
post #152 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

The value that the iphone is adding to AT&T --- is directly related to how competent AT&T is. If you know what you are doing (like Bill Gates and Verizon), then the iphone's value is dramatically reduced.


Basically true. I mean yes, it is true that Verizon is executing better overall than ATT... you see it in the churn numbers, data ARPU, 3G rollout, JD Power surveys, Consumer Reports, etc. etc. Verizon does the day-to-day stuff better than ATT ('cept for prepaid, of course. VZW's offering in that segment is quite weak).

But that doesn't mean that the iPhone is near-useless to Verizon. While they certainly don't need it the way ATT does, there are definitely aspects of it VZW finds very attractive, particularly now (or rather, come June).

For example, Verizon has a pretty nicely built-out 3G network, and more data customers than any US carrier... do you think they're not drooling over the possibility of having the 3G iPhone on it? Data ARPU, uber alles. And how about the 'cool phone gap'... as a CDMA carrier, VZW doesn't get as good a selection of phones as GSM carriers do, particularly at the high end. Sure, they're trying to fight back there (the touchscreen Blackberry Thunder is a VZW exclusive, for example), but nothing would convert the 'phone snob' segment of the market as much as a VZW 3G iPhone. And those tend to be the data-using, high-ARPU customers so prized by all the carriers.

So having the iPhone would be a very significant plus for VZW... they just don't need it the way ATT did/does. So I guess I'm basically agreeing with you, while expanding on the point.


.
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
post #153 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

While the quality of their network is pretty good, the quality of their service is not. Every Verison customer I know complains about the service. That's true from what I read in forums as well. I've not seen a reliable survey saying that their service was superior.

I assume you're talking customer service? All I can say is, my anecdotal evidence contradicts your anecdotal evidence... VZW CS has been pretty good to me. I've only met one true bonehead there, and he did call back to apologize to me once he figured out he was wrong and I was right.

Anyways, ancedotal evidence, both yours and mine, is limited. The national wireless CS surveys (JD Power) show a pretty consistent pattern of T-Mobile coming in first in CS, Verizon second, ATT third, and Sprint dead last (and Sprint's CS truly is a chamber of horrors).

Then there is Consumer Reports (which VZW routinely wins) and churn rates (again, routine VZW wins).

Not saying you haven't met your share of boneheads, but either CS standards/expectations in wireless are pretty low, or your experiences are somewhat atypical. Probably its a little of both.

.
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
post #154 of 189
PS- Latest JD Power wireless customer care survey I've read:


J.D. Power and Associates Reports:
T-Mobile Ranks Highest in Wireless Customer Care Performance for a
Seventh Consecutive Time

When Customer Care Issues Are Handled by an Automated Response System,
Wireless Provider Performance Drops Dramatically

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif: 31 January 2008 — For a seventh consecutive reporting period, T-Mobile ranks highest among the five largest wireless carriers in customer service performance, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2008 Wireless Customer Care Performance StudySM—Volume 1 released today.

Now in its sixth year, the semi-annual study provides a detailed report card on how well wireless providers service their customers in three point-of-contact methods: telephone calls with a service representative and/or automated response system (ARS); visits to a retail wireless store; and online Internet connection. Within each contact method, processing issues such as problem resolution efficiency and hold-time duration are also measured.

With an index score of 105, T-Mobile ranks highest in wireless customer care performance, followed by Verizon Wireless (101), Alltel, (99) and AT&T (99). In particular, customers report that T-Mobile displays strong performance in resolving problems in one contact and in its ARS point-of-contact method.


http://www.jdpower.com/corporate/new...spx?ID=2008018


.
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
post #155 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Now, iF Apple does come up with a line of phones, say a low cost, mid priced, and deluxe range, with a couple of storage options for each, THEN we may see a stampede!

Absolutely. But, we don't expect a stampede for the 3G iPhone in June?!?



.
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
post #156 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

I assume you're talking customer service? All I can say is, my anecdotal evidence contradicts your anecdotal evidence... VZW CS has been pretty good to me. I've only met one true bonehead there, and he did call back to apologize to me once he figured out he was wrong and I was right.

Anyways, ancedotal evidence, both yours and mine, is limited. The national wireless CS surveys (JD Power) show a pretty consistent pattern of T-Mobile coming in first in CS, Verizon second, ATT third, and Sprint dead last (and Sprint's CS truly is a chamber of horrors).

Then there is Consumer Reports (which VZW routinely wins) and churn rates (again, routine VZW wins).

Not saying you haven't met your share of boneheads, but either CS standards/expectations in wireless are pretty low, or your experiences are somewhat atypical. Probably its a little of both.

.

I don't ever recall CU saying that Verison's cust service was better. I haven't seen the others, care to share?
post #157 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

What you don't seem to get is that we're talking simply enormous numbers of subscribers here.

For carriers the size of Verizon and ATT, 73 cents more APRU amounts to around $150 million more in revenue, per quarter, and $600 million more per year. Now consider that Verizon has beaten ATT in APRU by something like double that in some quarters, and the difference comes to more than a $1 billion/year pace. So... a billion a year doesn't mean anything? Wha?

Oh, and churn... you gotta remember, those percentages are monthly, not quarterly.

For ATT, having a .5% higher churn than VZW's means that they lose a bit north of 1 million more customers per quarter to churn than if they had VZW's churn rate. Or, about 4.4 million more customers lost per year. That's the entire population of South Carolina... PER YEAR.

Again, far from chicken feed.

At the end of the story in all of this both are about equal in revenues. They both are making money hand over fist. Verizon is able to make as much money as ATT with around a million and a half less customers.


Quote:
Peoplebeen saying this for years. If it is happening, it's happening extremely slowly. Basically, you can't say that the king is eventually going to fall off the hill... you have to push him. No one's really done that yet, though we are starting to see some dents in the armor. T-Mobile is consistently rated #1 in customer service, quarter after quarter, and ATT's prepay ops (and yes, the iPhone) have made them a force in overall net adds (though they still lag VZW in postpaid/contract)..

I think this your perspective on the situation. I've never heard anyone call Verizon the king especially since ATT has the larger customer base. If anything Verizon is better at sqeezing more money from its customers.
post #158 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

PS- Latest JD Power wireless customer care survey I've read:


J.D. Power and Associates Reports:
T-Mobile Ranks Highest in Wireless Customer Care Performance for a
Seventh Consecutive Time

When Customer Care Issues Are Handled by an Automated Response System,
Wireless Provider Performance Drops Dramatically

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif: 31 January 2008 For a seventh consecutive reporting period, T-Mobile ranks highest among the five largest wireless carriers in customer service performance, according to the J.D. Power and Associates 2008 Wireless Customer Care Performance StudySMVolume 1 released today.

Now in its sixth year, the semi-annual study provides a detailed report card on how well wireless providers service their customers in three point-of-contact methods: telephone calls with a service representative and/or automated response system (ARS); visits to a retail wireless store; and online Internet connection. Within each contact method, processing issues such as problem resolution efficiency and hold-time duration are also measured.

With an index score of 105, T-Mobile ranks highest in wireless customer care performance, followed by Verizon Wireless (101), Alltel, (99) and AT&T (99). In particular, customers report that T-Mobile displays strong performance in resolving problems in one contact and in its ARS point-of-contact method.


http://www.jdpower.com/corporate/new...spx?ID=2008018


.

Ok, but it's a statistical tie. Meaningless. Even T-Mobile barely squeaks past, statistically.
post #159 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It's listed under leased lines, etc. an entirely different business. It's not listed under ARPU from phones.

No such entry existing in their quarterly reports.

http://www.att.com/Investor/Growth_P...oad/master.pdf

It's $10.645 billion in service revenue (i.e. excluding handset revenue) for Q1 divided by 71.367 million subscribers (which specifically mentioned to be including resellers) divided by 3 (each quarter has 3 months) --- which is $49.72 (which is close enough to the actual ARPU number of $50.18).

If I use your method and divide by 62 million subscribers (Tracfone has about 9+ million subscribers) --- AT&T would have $57 ARPU.
post #160 of 189
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

You're describing its value to Apple, not AT&T. AT&T's value from the iPhone is the ARPU, which has been establised as being almost twice that of other phones from any company, AT&T, Verison, Sprint, etc.

Why do you ignore that over and again?

It's called supply AND demand --- value is determined by a 2 way street.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › 2.5m AT&T iPhone users; Piper on WWDC Macs; 3G stock panic