2.5m AT&T iPhone users; Piper on WWDC Macs; 3G stock panic - Page 5

What was post #154, then? Ya got your JD Power customer care survey right there, with link.

Far as CU goes, yes, CU gives carriers an overall score in each metro area, based on several factors, customer service/care being one of them.


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Ok, to make it more obvious, here's the chart:









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It's close in that particular survey, but there's a consistent pattern, across many surveys, of Verizon almost always coming in ahead of ATT (and behind T-Mobile).

Of course, the truly striking thing about that survey is how Sprint did.



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"Customer care" means T-Mobile USA customers telephoned TMO customer care and complained by the network --- and then TMO gives them some extra free minutes for their trouble. That's why T-Mobile gets good survey scores.

You're an odd duck, Teno. When we discuss how the iPhone is doing in Europe, you're the first to say that sales/revenues don't matter, it's profit that counts. But when we move over to carriers, alluva sudden it's all about revenues? Uh-huh.

If you want to talk about profits with carriers, things like low churn and high ARPU really do matter quite a lot. Churn is a huge expense for carriers, and far as ARPU goes, obviously if you can pull more money out of the same number of customers, you increase revenue without increasing some of your associated costs... which is great for profits.



Verizon's been called the king and a lot worse, actually... especially right after the four-way merger back in 2000 that created them. They were like Godzilla... a Godzilla that executes well.

In 2004, Cingular bought the old (and failing) ATT wireless, creating a counter-Godzilla, one that was a bit bigger, actually (it's nice when you can drop $41 billion to buy 21 million customers overnight).

But its also one that didn't execute quite as well. This is not just my opinion, there's even an interview with with past ATT CEO Stan Sigman lauding Verizon for how well they run their business, and setting them as the benchmark which ATT aspires to. It's a good read:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...tm?chan=search



Now, despite that, VZW is certainly not perfect... their prepay offerings, as I've said, are weak, and their phone selection could be better. And no carrier is great in every single geographical area. But overall, VZW does execute very well, and in the carrier biz, execution certainly matters a very great deal. Just ask carriers who didn't, like Amp'd, or the old ATT wireless pre-Cingular. They either go under, or get bought out. It is a very rough business.



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LOL, cynical. But partially true.

Honestly though, T-Mobile does do a really good job there, and has for years. Makes sense when you think about it... if you don't have the money to build the best network, at least spend a fraction of that to have the best CS. It's amazing how much of an effect very good or very bad CS can have on customer perceptions of your company, and T-Mobile, surprisingly, does quite well in net customer adds.

T-Mobile's churn is fairly high, though, but it'd be through the roof if they had the network they do plus Sprint's absolutely sheeite CS.


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No....actually I said the exact opposite. When we were discussing iPhone sales in Europe I was all about sales/revenues/new subscribers. What I said mattered less were sales projections.


Yes they do matter. But you are taking a few points difference and attempting to inflate them into being bigger than the are. Just like the chart you posted. They average out to 98%. Statistically they are the same.

When the final sales/revenues don't put ATT and Verizon far apart.


Citing a 3 year old interview. A lot has happened since 2005.

Actually, when shown repeated news stories stating that the iPhone had missed its sales goals in Europe, you went into repeated spiels about how profit is what really mattered most. Basically, you denied that iPhone sales in Europe weren't good for the longest time, then finally sorta kinda acknowledged it while throwing up the profit argument. You probably still, deep down, want to believe that Apple is doing tres awesome in Europe.

But don't worry, they may finally, now that 3G is nearly here.



You continue to not really understand the wireless industry, or at least, to not want to understand it. \

Churn figures are stated the way they are (monthly figures) to minimize differences... if they were yearly or even quarterly figures, any average person viewing said churn rates would notice a pretty big difference. But one can get around this by actually doing the math... a 0.5% improvement in churn gives a carrier ATT/VZW's size 4-5 million more customers per year. Each $1 improvement in ARPU improves revenue by close to $1 billion per year. And both metrics have a big impact on a carrier's bottom line/profits.

These aren't by any stretch of the imagination negligible numbers, and you've already been informed of them, so I'm just going to assume that you're being willfully ignorant here.



I guess if the CEO of ATT were contradicting me, I'd want to ignore/minimize what he had to say too.

But the fact is, he was right, and he's still right, because carriers don't change overnight or quickly... it takes years to significantly change how a big carrier operates (and to deploy significant new infrastructure nationally), and this assumes that you're successful in your bid for improvement. For example, Sprint has vowed for many years to improve their horrid CS, and, guess what? Their CS is still horrid, little if any improvement.

The metrics really haven't changed much since the interview... VZW still outperforms ATT in things like churn, same as they did 3 years ago. ATT still loses in things like JD Powers surveys and Consumer Reports nearly every time... same as they did 3 years ago. I would argue that the gap has narrowed a bit, but it continues most definitely to be there.

Oh, and let's not forget... Apple did offer the iPhone first to VZW, right? We will never get an official confirmation of that, but judging from the metrics, I have little doubt it's true. It certainly wouldn't have been hard for Apple to make CDMA and GSM versions of the same phone (and they likely will still)- even Motorola, the current dysfunctional class dunce among phonemakers, has been able to do that without much trouble.

In any case, there's really no reason to stick up for ATT in a 'they're Apple's buddy' sense... Apple is (rightfully) starting to ditch the single-carrier exclusive model, and there's a good chance that by this time next year, the iPhone will be officially available on multiple US carriers. Apparently the 'five-year exclusive' may not be, really.

In which case, ATT's performance (or lack thereof, depending where you live) won't be nearly as major an issue anymore, as far as US iPhone users are concerned (unless they forget about the 30-day trial period).


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Anyhow, I am done with this thread, as I feel we are just repeating ourselves at this point. So Teno, you are welcome to the last word, FWIW. Lay some of that party-line thinking on us one mo' time.



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Sry, one last thing:

http://rcrnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art...143357025/1002


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That's a good one. It says what we've been trying to say, but with obviously more believability.

Not sure what you mean there.

Anyhow, as of today, the deal looks official... VZW and Alltel came to terms:

http://www.rcrnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll...250880030/1002


Oh, and that is some scary-good combined native coverage:






Assuming federal approval, the merger will complete by year-end, and ATT will be #2.

Unless they were to buy T-Mobile or Sprint, but Deutsche Telekom has indicated they won't sell T-Mobile, and buying Sprint right now is like buying a boat anchor and throwing yourself overboard with it.

Plus Sprint is CDMA, ATT is GSM, and as Sprint and Nextel learned the hard way, technological incompatibility makes mergers even harder than they already are.


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That is pretty impressive coverage for the US. Surely they will advertise that fact and that they have the most subscribers, of course.

AT&T is only about an 11% increase to match them. While that is tougher than it looks it's also not unimaginable with their increased network coverage, faster speeds and impending 3G iPhone that probably won't work on T-Mobile's up and coming 3G network.

Except for getting T-Mobile, which is backed by Deutsche Telekom so it won't happen, I see no way for AT&T to buy it's way back into pole position with a single acquisition.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...hone_companies Is this good for AT&T customers? Will they have more competitive deals to get more subscribers to less Verizon's lead? I sure hope so.

I never said Apple was doing awesome in Europe, none of Apple's products have awesome sales in Europe. I always maintained that as long as the iPhone was making money for Apple and bringing in new subscribers for carriers (which it did do) everyone was mostly satisfied. Evidence of this is Apple becoming the 3rd largest seller of mobile handsets in the world, only offering one phone. Beating out many other manufacturers who have made many handsets for years.

What I acknowledged was that Apple limiting the iPhone to one carrier n 3 countries, limited sales. But of course they knew that would be the effect. I also acknowledged that Euro carriers charged too much for iPhone service. Once those prices started to go down, iPhone sales went up.

It was unrealistic to expect European sales to be like US sales.



It doesn't take a deep understanding of the mobile wireless industry to look at revenues/profits and see that ATT/VZW have been closely the same.

You want to highlight the minutia and ignore the end results because it does not support your argument.




Again you want to bog the discussion down in minutia without the final results.



I don't know why you are only pointing at me, others are saying much the same.

In 2008 Verizon drops $27 billion to buy 13.2 million customers overnight.

I agree there is little room for AT&T to grow much further through acquisitions they will have to do it through competition. Which is good for AT&T customers and the whole industry in general.

Sigh. Don't know why I bother... talking to Teno is talkin' to a brick wall sometimes....


Yup. But what was even more unrealistic was to expect that a product that the Euros didn't really want (2.5G, no MMS) at too high a price was going to sell in Europe at a US-pace.



Sigh. Teno, if revenues were all that mattered, then Nokia and Microsoft would be much better companies than Apple is. But Apple is the better company, so maybe, just maaaaybe, it's highly over-simplistic to point at similar revenues and go, "Ook ook, revenues same, companies must be just as good as each other, ook ook!"

And even the rough revenue parity will be gone once the VZW-Alltel merger completes. So, does the Alltel acquisition make Verizon a much better company, then? Or just a larger one?

If you understand the wireless industry at all (and I'm starting to have my doubts), acquisitions are a trade-off, actually, especially in the short-term. You gain coverage, but you can lose a lot in terms of execution, focus, customer satisfaction, customer loyalty/churn, and many other important things that won't be found on the revenue line of your SEC filing. Just ask Sprint-Nextel, they know.



Again, what you know about the wireless industry would appear to be not much. It's not just revenues, it's how the business is run and how the companies get there. Is any company with revenues similar to Apple just as good as Apple? Nope.



If you're referring to Mel and Solip, they sound nothing like you, actually. I never get the feeling that I'm listening to some Apple/ATT press release when they post. \


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It's not striking to anyone who has had both T-mobile and Sprint. T-mo is cool, and Sprint had nightmarish customer service.

Turnabout is fair play, I guess.

Now we get to see if the merger hurts VZW's execution the way the ATT Wireless acquisition temporarily hurt Cingular back when they bought 'em.


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Best thing you've said this whole thread. Agreed.



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You're absolutely right. And it's scary to see that Sprint's nightmarish CS comes from the top, apparently... I remember reading an interview with Sprint's key CS guy (Vice-President of Customer something?), and it was pretty horrifying.

He took basically ZERO responsibility for Sprint's sh***y customer service, made absolutely no apologies for how they were performing, and basically had a "What me worry" attitude about it. No... accountability... WHATSOEVER.

With Dan Hesse in charge at Sprint now, one would hope that guy was one of the very first fired. Sprint's CS is an abomination, even by wireless industry standards, and until they can fix it and some of their other basics, WiMax and all the gee-whiz phones in the world won't really get them back on track. Plus, they've got potentially an even stronger competitor to deal with now, in the form of VZW-Alltel.

Increasingly, discussions about Sprint seem to revolve around not whether the company will be bought out, but when and by who. Hesse has some time to turn it around, but not much.


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Yes, this could be good for AT&T customers, as it will likely make AT&T try harder, just like Avis, but hopefully, more successfully.

Exactly what evidence shows the Euros did not want it? Even at its highest prices it was selling and adding subscribers. As the prices went down it sold even faster. That does not happen to a product that has no demand.



I said revenue and profit.

The whole point of any business is to make money. Revenue and profit are the direct measurement of how much money any company is making. Yes revenues and profits are most important.

I don't understand your comparison of Nokia, Microsoft, and Apple. All three of these companies are making a lot of money.


The deal still has some hurdles to clear. But if all goes well with no problems this may happen in the future, but is not the case right now.



The wireless industry is not the only with metrics that measure how well a business is run. For any industry marketshare, ARPU, churn, customer service are all measurements of a companies operations and its ability to make money. But they are not really as important as the final revenue/profit number themselves.

Is Wallstreet going to punish AT&T for ARPU and churn alone. No, not as long as AT&T continues to make money.





Accusations of fanboism actually lowers the quality of our dialog.

You said:
"The iPhone has poor sales in Europe because it did not meet carrier sales projections."

I said:
"While not a run away success, Euro iPhone sales have increased new subscriptions for its carriers and added hundreds of millions in new revenue for Apple. Everyone seems mostly satisfied. Because the iPhone is making them money."


You said:
"Verizon has better business operations than AT&T, that makes Verizon a better company."

I said:
"True Verizon has outperformed AT&T in some business operations, both companies have had a huge growth in subscriptions and profits, because Verizon charges more both are essentially tied in revenue/profits."

Both Mel and Solip have in one way or another stated the same as I've said. How is my position a press release for Apple or AT&T?

The demand was obviously not as severe as the US market, but neither is the Mac market outside the US. I wonder how many early iPhone adopters were lost to European carriers because they obtained them from the US through other channels. We know the iPhone was used in almost every country just months after its launch and the sales were limited and required credit cards to prevent international gray market sales.

Even after the emergence into Europe, looking at the factory unlocked prices in France and Germany it appears to be financially beneficial to buy one from eBay. So I propose that the iPhone demand in Europe is much higher than the unit sales for 3 European caarriers across 5 countries indicate.

Perhaps TBaggins means that the demand was not as high as both Apple and the carriers thought they would be. That seems to be true. But with a 3G version almost upon us with v2.0 software and an assumed same day launch for all countries we should now be able to see how popular the iPhone really is.

I expect it to be phenomenal. Not just because it's 3G and it's a low cost luxry item and status symbol, but also because most complaints about its functionality will be thrown out the window. For example, MMS and video recording will be possible by 3rd-parties if Apple chooses not to add them. The video recording is more complex, but MMS should be available almost immediately, if it isn't already waiting in the wings.

I do agree the combination of carrier lock-in, truncated feature set, and high price tag turned away a great deal of potential iPhone users in Europe.

All signs show Apple rectifying all of these issues. Should lead to explosive sales.

Definitely, but I don't think it will be released tomorrowI'm still thinking of a late June date; Friday, June 27th @ 5pm to be specificso I sold all my Apple Stock in preparation of a significant drop tomorrow.

As Meatloaf used to say it --- two out of three ain't bad.

Europeans are willing to take the device --- if the price is low (or free). These people get a free N-series phone with a contract --- and these Nokia BB5 phones were unlockable for 2+ years.

LOL... you're still in denial over this? Wow.

Let's see... missed sales goals, the comments of about a zillion Euro users, the existing feature sets of high-end phones already popular in Europe, etc. etc. You know, all the common sense things. Even AI routinely reports in their articles that Euro sales have been lackluster.

So, thank God the 3G iPhone finally came out today, so Apple can start to turn the situation around. Booyah!

Apple understands that they needed to up their game here to do well in Europe, apparently they were less in denial than some.



And provided absolutely NO profit numbers to back your claim up. Which is why you were ignored on that.



Re-read it then. It's pretty clear to most any reasonable person, and simply goes along with your own "revenues uber alles" logic... which was kinda the point. \



It's pretty close to a done deal... it's unlikely the Feds will deny it, they'll simply require divestitures in certain markets. And it doesn't change my point, which you don't seem to want to respond to.



I stand corrected then. You not only don't have a great grasp of the wireless industry, but all industries in general.



Sigh. First off, its hard to determine how much Wall Street is/is not 'punishing' ATT Mobility alone, since the stock traded is that of the overall company, of which ATT Mobility's revenues are only a part. Secondly, how would you know how Wall Street views the wireless sector, considering that you have to have the most basic wireless industry metrics explained to you?



The very consistent reality of your own unchecked fanboism has already lowered the quality of our dialog many times over. Sad to say, your main contribution in nearly all cases has been a summation of the party line.

Not saying it isn't valuable (sort of), but it would be nice to see you thinking outside of that particular box more often.



Not exactly. More like, you said:

"I deny that iPhone sales are poor."

*was presented evidence to the contrary*

"Well, okay, but those aren't OFFICIAL numbers!"

*was presented with official numbers*

*Well, okay, but that's just November/Decembers! Things will turn AROUND!"

*things don't turn around*

"Well, okay, but sales in Europe are actually GREAT because there's tons of unlocked iPhones being sold in Europe!"

*no one seems to think that makes Europe sales good*

"Well, okay, but it doesn't matter that Europe sales aren't good because Apple's MAKING A PROFIT on the iPhone in Europe."

*Teno's asked for official iPhone profit numbers in Europe. Can't provide any, other than some odd personal math/guesstimate*

... and so on, and so on, and so on....



Similarity in revenue in no way, shape, or form, changes the fact that Verizon is run better day-to-day, something even past ATT CEOs acknowledge. 'Huge growth' isn't that hard to come by with millions fleeing Sprint-Nextel... and even so, ATT has had a hard time on the postpaid side of the ledger. And actually, on many things, VZW and ATT charge the same.



It would be quite a twisting of Mel and Solip's positions to call them the same as yours. And, unlike yourself, neither Mel nor Solip consistently deny reality. This is why their viewpoints are valuable.

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LOL, fair enough.


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