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Apple's App Store could emerge as $1.2B business by 2009

post #1 of 34
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Investment bank Piper Jaffray is urging investors who typically focus only on Apple's hardware announcements to also pay attention to the company's iPhone software strategy, particularly its upcoming App Store, which could balloon into a $1 billion market by next year.

In a research note to clients early Wednesday, analyst Gene Munster said his $1 billion market prediction represents the better of a three-case scenario that would add anywhere from 1 to 3% in operating income for the Cupertino-based electronics maker by the end of the 2009 calendar year.

To arrive at his estimates, the analyst initially conceived a neutral case scenario in which he assumed 91% of a market comprised of 85 million multi-touch handheld users (61.6 million iPhoner users and 23.4 iPod touch users) would at one time or another tap into the App Store during the course of a year.

Munster based this assumption off the adoption rates announced at WWDC for the iPhone's existing services. Specifically, Apple chief executive Steve Jobs said that 98% of iPhone owners browse the web, 94% use email, 90% send text messages, and 80% use 10 or more of the integrated features of the phone.

"Mobile service adoption rates show that iPhone owners are more sophisticated mobile users, likely a result of both the user profile and the device itself," the analyst told clients. "The bottom line is that we expect similar adoption of the App Store to other advanced services."

Overall, Munster's Neutral Case scenario assumes 77.7 million active App Store users will download two applications from the service each year at an average app revenue per sue of $10 -- one free and one costing $10 -- generating sales of about $777 million and a profit of $163 million. However, he notes that adoption rates could actually be much higher given the quality and ease of use of Apple's iPhone experience -- or around 95 percent (or 80.8 million active users) -- which would bump revenues to $1.21B and profits to $254 million.

For his most conservative case seen generating $416 million in sales and profits of $75 million, the Piper Jaffray analyst assumed that only 75% of iPhone and iPod Touch users will download content from the app store. He reached this assumption based on recent data on content consumption on the current iPhone without the App Store versus other smartphones.

"According to April m:metrics data, 45% of smartphone users play a game on their phone at least once in a month," he said. "For iPhones, data suggests the rate is closer to 32%; however, we believe the rate of application users/gamers for iPhones is depressed given that third party developers were not able to produce applications for the iPhone previously."



With the launch of the App Store in early July, Munster believes the iPhone and iPod touch are actually on their way to becoming "superior gaming/application" devices. He noted that the same m:metrics data suggests iPhone users are 70% more likely to consume video on their phones, given the YouTube application that exists on the handset.

"Applying this 70% higher likelihood to the rate of game usage for smartphones, we arrive at 75% of iPhone users engaging in downloading third party applications," wrote. "The reason we believe this could be conservative is that the iPhone heavily overindexes other smartphones in advanced services."

Each of Munster's case scenarios assume a 60% operating margin on the 30 percent cut of App Store sales Apple will received. He maintained his Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of the company.
post #2 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

85 million multi-touch handheld users (61.6 million iPhoner users and 23.4 iPod touch users)

There's going to be 61.6 million iPhone users by this time next year? Yeah, right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"The bottom line is that we expect similar adoption of the App Store to other advanced services."

This seems reasonable enough. However, so far we've got early-adopters, trailblazers buying the iPhone. Once the user base expands well beyond that, you could well see a far greater proportion of users unwilling to spend further; who are happy with the iPhone as it is and don't need any additional functionality, or don't think the additional functionality is worth whatever people might charge for it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

assumes 77.7 million active App Store users will download two applications from the service each year at an average $10 per app -- one free and one costing $10

Is this AI's mistake or Munster's? Because that's an average of $5 an app, not $10.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

generating sales of about $777 million and a profit of $233 million

Profit? Er, no. How can a financial analyst be so f*cking clueless? That's $233 revenue for Apple (Apple take 30% of the app fee for themselves, the rest goes to the app maker).

So, he seems to have forgotten about store running costs and credit card fees. Idiot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Each of Munster's case scenarios assume a 60% operating margin to the 30 percent cut of App Store sales Apple will received.

Hmm, either AI's not quoting him correctly, or he can't do basic maths.

Because 30% of $777 million is $233 million, which he said is "profit". If he's assuming a 60% operating margin, he should have said $233 million revenue and $140 million profit.
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post #3 of 34
I don't know about you guys but paying $75 for a plan that use to cost $59.00 & only includes 450 of voice is not pretty attractive, sure it's 3G data but i don't think people are going to fall for the $199 perfect deal they claim, last time i checked $15x24 months + $199 = $560 & thats only the 8GB model, an can you believe AT&T got the balls to say they're still losing money
post #4 of 34
I think that the estimate on $ per user is low. Almost all users will spend $10 and many will spend 10 times that for an average between $20-30 per device.

I know I will as soon as I buy my iPhone in Canada, (actually we will have 5 phones for the family members)

Apps I would like for the Iphone

REAL Time stock quote app or widget
Ability to trade from anywhere.
post #5 of 34
nevermind
post #6 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. H View Post

There's going to be 61.6 million iPhone users by this time next year? Yeah, right.



This seems reasonable enough. However, so far we've got early-adopters, trailblazers buying the iPhone. Once the user base expands well beyond that, you could well see a far greater proportion of users unwilling to spend further; who are happy with the iPhone as it is and don't need any additional functionality, or don't think the additional functionality is worth whatever people might charge for it.



Is this AI's mistake or Munster's? Because that's an average of $5 an app, not $10.



Profit? Er, no. How can a financial analyst be so f*cking clueless? That's $233 revenue for Apple (Apple take 30% of the app fee for themselves, the rest goes to the app maker).

So, he seems to have forgotten about store running costs and credit card fees. Idiot.



Hmm, either AI's not quoting him correctly, or he can't do basic maths.

Because 30% of $777 million is $233 million, which he said is "profit". If he's assuming a 60% operating margin, he should have said $233 million revenue and $140 million profit.


It may be an average of $5 per app, BUT it is still $10 per user which is what is used in the calculation.
post #7 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by parky View Post

It may be an average of $5 per app, BUT it is still $10 per user which is what is used in the calculation.

Indeed.
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post #8 of 34
I do like how Munster used the word "neutral" to his estimates --- when he based those numbers on Steve Jobs hyped up stats in a keynote speech.

That's not neutral, that's hyperbole PR.
post #9 of 34
Considering the current industry standard, i thought apple were too generous to developer by giving them 70% of the revenue. When they have to maintain the server, bandwidth, credit card transaction etc.

May be those cost are negligible.

I dont see Apps being a mass hit for phone. Surely everyone will at least pay for one a two apps. But i think there will always be a good free alternative on the App Store.

However games are different matter. I think Games will be big hit on the iPhone. Not to mention possible itunes music and video directly to iPhone.
post #10 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

I do like how Munster used the word "neutral" to his estimates --- when he based those numbers on Steve Jobs hyped up stats in a keynote speech.

That's not neutral, that's hyperbole PR.

Yea, because Jobs and Apple always give unrealistic outlooks and guidance.

Actually, Apple almost always under-projects revenue and profit margin and such these days. The prediction that has gotten the most discussion over the last year was the 10 million iPhones for 08. Just because people spent the year saying it won't happen doesn't mean that Jobs was being unrealistic. At the end of the year, most people now expect 10 million to be easily, easily surpassed.

This is not to say that I think Munster has put together the most convincing argument, by the way. In fact, it seems rather amateurish, but I wouldn't blame that on Jobs' hype...
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post #11 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Yea, because Jobs and Apple always give unrealistic outlooks and guidance.

Actually, Apple almost always under-projects revenue and profit margin and such these days. The prediction that has gotten the most discussion over the last year was the 10 million iPhones for 08. Just because people spent the year saying it won't happen doesn't mean that Jobs was being unrealistic. At the end of the year, most people now expect 10 million to be easily, easily surpassed.

This is not to say that I think Munster has put together the most convincing argument, by the way. In fact, it seems rather amateurish, but I wouldn't blame that on Jobs' hype...

You can have hyperbole at the keynote and have conservative SEC filings at the same time.

The keynote will say that this is the best thing since sliced bread. The SEC filing will say that this same thing can fail at any time. No contradictions what-so-ever.
post #12 of 34
Piper Jaffray is a royal PITA. Far too many variables in a moving market where they conveniently forget to mention the little details....anything to make money at others expense.
post #13 of 34
apps will drive this thing, of all the people with the iphone buzz (enterprise) at my corp they can't wait till they can see the enterprise based apps. one IT big wig, said "look at all the stuff on the palm, treo we can get, if apple can get that kind of base AND we can make our own inhouse apps....ITS A BIG GO" IT may not be chomping at the bit, but all the execs are, and why" because it's not just email they need they want web apps, web based processes, and all agree iphone is best at this. it's also a security issue, we are considering for security reasons to have "inhouse" based apps (google like spreadsheets, etc) so execs don't have to carry the "sensitive" info on their soon to be lost or stolen BB's.
iphone enterprise is the big buzz here. i feel the apps store will put a HUGE push to consumers as well, they are also talking about that mlb app (if they can do this for baseball, wow what they can do for......)
i can see me buying at least 4-5 apps ASAP, gps turn by turn, to do outline, voice dialing, imaging apps galore, and a few games. so i think the estimates are way low, how many apps does a treo avg user have, what about BB or MS moble?
we are seeing history being made, apple will soon dominate the moble "desk top"
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post #14 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. H View Post

There's going to be 61.6 million iPhone users by this time next year? Yeah, right.



This seems reasonable enough. However, so far we've got early-adopters, trailblazers buying the iPhone. Once the user base expands well beyond that, you could well see a far greater proportion of users unwilling to spend further; who are happy with the iPhone as it is and don't need any additional functionality, or don't think the additional functionality is worth whatever people might charge for it.



Is this AI's mistake or Munster's? Because that's an average of $5 an app, not $10.



Profit? Er, no. How can a financial analyst be so f*cking clueless? That's $233 revenue for Apple (Apple take 30% of the app fee for themselves, the rest goes to the app maker).

So, he seems to have forgotten about store running costs and credit card fees. Idiot.



Hmm, either AI's not quoting him correctly, or he can't do basic maths.

Because 30% of $777 million is $233 million, which he said is "profit". If he's assuming a 60% operating margin, he should have said $233 million revenue and $140 million profit.

try looking at the chart - he's not forgetting the expenses. Just because AppleInsider may not have been as clear as they could have in a few places doesn't mean Munster got it wrong.
post #15 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

apps will drive this thing, of all the people with the iphone buzz (enterprise) at my corp they can't wait till they can see the enterprise based apps. one IT big wig, said "look at all the stuff on the palm, treo we can get, if apple can get that kind of base AND we can make our own inhouse apps....ITS A BIG GO" IT may not be chomping at the bit, but all the execs are, and why" because it's not just email they need they want web apps, web based processes, and all agree iphone is best at this. it's also a security issue, we are considering for security reasons to have "inhouse" based apps (google like spreadsheets, etc) so execs don't have to carry the "sensitive" info on their soon to be lost or stolen BB's.
iphone enterprise is the big buzz here. i feel the apps store will put a HUGE push to consumers as well, they are also talking about that mlb app (if they can do this for baseball, wow what they can do for......)
i can see me buying at least 4-5 apps ASAP, gps turn by turn, to do outline, voice dialing, imaging apps galore, and a few games. so i think the estimates are way low, how many apps does a treo avg user have, what about BB or MS moble?
we are seeing history being made, apple will soon dominate the moble "desk top"

I agree. People drastically underestimate the target market of the iPhone, execs spend a ton of money on useless apps just because they love gadgets & can afford to buy them.

I also think people dramatically underestimate the game potential. It isn't just rolling the cost of a phone with an iPod, also devices like the Nintendo_DS & the Playstation portable. It's a do everything device that actually is able to pretty much do everything & that will sell like hotcakes.

I also think people underestimate the iPod touch, I see it on the verge of exploding too. There will be a lot of people who used palm type devices (no phone capability) who will jump on the Touch instead of the iPhone.
post #16 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

You can have hyperbole at the keynote and have conservative SEC filings at the same time.

The keynote will say that this is the best thing since sliced bread. The SEC filing will say that this same thing can fail at any time. No contradictions what-so-ever.

True, but different. When Jobs goes out of his way to make actual predictions (what Munster appears to be basing his "neutral" hypothesis on) he tends to be conservative. There is no doubt that they can go overboard in hype (Apple TV is the next big thing / These processors are 4X as fast) but I have found the actual sales predictions to be conservative in the keynotes as well as the SEC filings. Of course, conservative in hindsight. Apple's claim of 10 million iPhones in 08 was seen by some to be outrageous at the time...
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post #17 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Apple's claim of 10 million iPhones in 08 was seen by some to be outrageous at the time...

It's a moving target, isn't it.

Claims of 10 million iphones at $600 is outrageous. 10 million iphoes at $200 is entirely a different matter.
post #18 of 34
Munster is losing it... 85 million iPhones & Touches by next year? That's a pretty heady number. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Apple here, but unless Apple and at&t announce a split by next month, these numbers are sheer fantasy.

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post #19 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

It's a moving target, isn't it.

Claims of 10 million iphones at $600 is outrageous. 10 million iphoes at $200 is entirely a different matter.

The target is still there, it is the gun that is moving


Still, if they had only increased the countries available and added 3G and GPS and Apps Store I suspect they could have hit 10 million easy--even without the latest "price drop."
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post #20 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

True, but different. When Jobs goes out of his way to make actual predictions (what Munster appears to be basing his "neutral" hypothesis on) he tends to be conservative. There is no doubt that they can go overboard in hype (Apple TV is the next big thing / These processors are 4X as fast) but I have found the actual sales predictions to be conservative in the keynotes as well as the SEC filings. Of course, conservative in hindsight. Apple's claim of 10 million iPhones in 08 was seen by some to be outrageous at the time...

With the possibility of shareholder lawsuits always present, CEO's always have to
be cautious when making specific predictions. I don't think Jobs was exaggerating
too much.
post #21 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by TednDi View Post

nevermind

Yeah, good album.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #22 of 34
THe fear of cannibalizing this extremely valuable business is why Apple won't let Flash onto the iPhone.

More on my blog:

http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2008...r-adobe-flash/

Cheers,

BW
post #23 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobWarfield View Post

THe fear of cannibalizing this extremely valuable business is why Apple won't let Flash onto the iPhone.

More on my blog:

http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2008...r-adobe-flash/

Cheers,

BW

Out, damn blogspammer!

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post #24 of 34
Three quick comments. One, I have little doubt that carriers will sign up en masse now that some of the business model restrictions are gone. Plus, customers will see $199 as a relatively easy impulse buy, and once a couple 'have to have' iPhone apps start flooding into the market, Apple is going to do some crazy, game-changing volume. $199 is a magic consumer adoption type of number and most consumers don't do the lifecycle spend analysis; they tend to be more upfront out of pocket driven.

Two, while it is easy to pick apart Munster's model given the amount of moving parts and the fact that the AppStore hasn't even launched, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. The marriage of iPhone SDK with AppStore as marketplace, e-wallet and distribution channel is a game changer, IMHO.

If you watched the demos in the keynote, it is not hard to see where gaming, entertainment, productivity and vertically focused apps grow into a huge business. To think otherwise (unless they fail to execute - always a possibility) is to forget the history of the PC and Internet. Hobbyists and Free are always Chapter One. Chapter Two overlays commercial applications. Happily not an either/or but definitely an AND.

Three, is that having bought many a song via the iTunes wireless store, I can tell you that the joy of instant and over-the-air will overnight open the door to impulse-buy, micro-transactions of all kinds.

For what its worth, I have done a fairly lengthy analysis of the keynote called:

iPhone 2.0: Swinging for the Global Fences
http://thenetworkgarden.com/weblog/2...-20-swing.html

Check it out if interested.

Mark
post #25 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermark View Post

Three quick comments. One, I have little doubt that carriers will sign up en masse now that some of the business model restrictions are gone. Plus, customers will see $199 as a relatively easy impulse buy, and once a couple 'have to have' iPhone apps start flooding into the market, Apple is going to do some crazy, game-changing volume. $199 is a magic consumer adoption type of number and most consumers don't do the lifecycle spend analysis; they tend to be more upfront out of pocket driven.

Quite true

Quote:
Two, while it is easy to pick apart Munster's model given the amount of moving parts and the fact that the AppStore hasn't even launched, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. The marriage of iPhone SDK with AppStore as marketplace, e-wallet and distribution channel is a game changer, IMHO.

True. But I can stomach your simple statement soooo much easier than a survey of a handfull of developers and a chart with some numbers pulled out of his a--

Quote:
If you watched the demos in the keynote, it is not hard to see where gaming, entertainment, productivity and vertically focused apps grow into a huge business. To think otherwise (unless they fail to execute - always a possibility) is to forget the history of the PC and Internet. Hobbyists and Free are always Chapter One. Chapter Two overlays commercial applications. Happily not an either/or but definitely an AND.

Three, is that having bought many a song via the iTunes wireless store, I can tell you that the joy of instant and over-the-air will overnight open the door to impulse-buy, micro-transactions of all kinds.


true and true
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post #26 of 34
this article from popular machanics says a lot, just like i was saying what will build the new platform is SOFTWARE ...SJ has learned from his skips with MS and loss of the pc desktop but growing back. how many of those touch screen phones are iphone "killer" use dingdong MS moble, they look nice but the os rules other manufacturers have failed for lack of software where withall

i quote "So even on a cosmetic level, the touchphone war will be fought with code"

http://www.popularmechanics.com/tech...y/4268146.html

and consumers will be drawn to the apps store for stable, working, tested, software, making it easy and makes the interface consistent, apple's strength
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post #27 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

this article from popular machanics says a lot, just like i was saying what will build the new platform is SOFTWARE ...SJ has learned from his skips with MS and loss of the pc desktop but growing back. how many of those touch screen phones are iphone "killer" use dingdong MS moble, they look nice but the os rules other manufacturers have failed for lack of software where withall

i quote "So even on a cosmetic level, the touchphone war will be fought with code"

http://www.popularmechanics.com/tech...y/4268146.html

and consumers will be drawn to the apps store for stable, working, tested, software, making it easy and makes the interface consistent, apple's strength

Meh. To a hammer everything looks like a nail... It's the whole product, not just the software. So, although there is great promise for Android so far, I think Apple's whole product experience will always be far superior, even if it's lacking in occasional gee-whiz features.

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post #28 of 34
Sorry to be a bit of a latecomer to this topic.

"But whoa ! The app store being $1.2b ! How could it possibly be !!!"

Guys, think about this - APP store is like MUSIC store - impulse buys as others have voiced etc. would have its impact - I have bought several apps like Jotter, iClip, Menustrip etc. that I would not have bought earlier - not to mention MenuStrip, PiquantMenu, Launcher etc that do the same thing but for want of better features as perceived by me - ... because it is only <$20 and ... you get the picture.

But what is interesting is that, this could pave the way for app rentals - like automatic upgrades - starting from mini apps for iphone to apps for big machines - may be 10.9 will be exclusively through app store, may be you will get an automatic upgrade to 10.10 provided you spend a steady $29.99 every month as a subscription.

Also, you are forgetting that we haven't even touched Apple TV as a platform. Remember, iTunes started for iPods - then bloated up into a humongo size - to activate phones for a phone carrier - what !!!!

Come on guys and gals, I am sure Gene Munster's estimates are very conservative as all these machinations are not taken into account.

Quite likely when you buy a mac in 2012, you will have it establish net connection first in EFI and make you download the OS from the AppStore !!!
post #29 of 34
they will have apps like we have access to widgets WITH REVIEWS, nice to know about a tested, approved, working, reviewed app before you pluck those $$$ down. this will be HUGE, and necessary for this iphone platform to grow....LG, BB, HTC, sony etc are nervous not from the iphone look/ touch screen, but its #1 software superiority #2 apps store.
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post #30 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by ksec View Post

Considering the current industry standard, i thought apple were too generous to developer by giving them 70% of the revenue. When they have to maintain the server, bandwidth, credit card transaction etc.

May be those cost are negligible.

I dont see Apps being a mass hit for phone. Surely everyone will at least pay for one a two apps. But i think there will always be a good free alternative on the App Store.

However games are different matter. I think Games will be big hit on the iPhone. Not to mention possible itunes music and video directly to iPhone.



Apple hasn't yet approved 21,000 developers, me included, and we're getting pissed off about that. We actually want to sell iPhone apps, unlike 70% of the developers who will offer them for free. I'm not sure what Apple's problem is, but who ever decided to limit the number of developers needs to be fired. It is a very dumb decision. Because instead of developing for the iPhone, I'll have to move to Google's Android or other smart phones. We don't have time to dick around.
post #31 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by enzomedici View Post

Apple hasn't yet approved 21,000 developers, me included, and we're getting pissed off about that. We actually want to sell iPhone apps, unlike 70% of the developers who will offer them for free. I'm not sure what Apple's problem is, but who ever decided to limit the number of developers needs to be fired. It is a very dumb decision. Because instead of developing for the iPhone, I'll have to move to Google's Android or other smart phones. We don't have time to dick around.

1. Who says that 70% of developers will offer free apps?

2. They limited the number of developers initially as it is a completely new venture. Opening it to everyone could have been a disaster as they could not manage the numbers, I suppose you would have complained then as well.

3. If you want to develop for Android then feel free, your loss not ours.
post #32 of 34
I think Apps are the new Singles and I'm willing to bet that even at it's most aggressive, part of this estimate is too low.

The combination of App Store and iPhone may be more game-changing than iTunes/iPod. I suspect not even Jobs fully realizes the possibilities.

Music at least had a distribution method that worked. Mobile Applications are virtually a brand new market (because what has existed was so dysfunctional).

Anyone willing to take my bet?
post #33 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalellarson View Post

I think Apps are the new Singles and I'm willing to bet that even at it's most aggressive, part of this estimate is too low.

The combination of App Store and iPhone may be more game-changing than iTunes/iPod. I suspect not even Jobs fully realizes the possibilities.

Music at least had a distribution method that worked. Mobile Applications are virtually a brand new market (because what has existed was so dysfunctional).

Anyone willing to take my bet?

The comparison is rhetorical nonsense created to drive traffic to your site. That's my bet.

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post #34 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

The comparison is rhetorical nonsense created to drive traffic to your site. That's my bet.

I'm interested in discussing ideas.

My comparison is based on personal experience in the mobile market and in working for record labels on the music side.

As a user, I've experienced the pain of trying to find and install applications onto many different handsets with various carriers. They're difficult to find, difficult to install and configure, often have functionality crippled by the carriers (who've locked out parts of the phone in various ways). I've worked from the other end to help get applications onto handsets and experienced the pain there.

Dropping those barriers is game changing in the mobile market just as Apple changed the structure of the music business. Where's the rhetorical nonsense in that?
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