Apple plans mystery "product transition" before September's end - Page 2

Not that Apple really cares about me in particular but they can guarantee a purchase from me by doing the following...

1) MB's go aluminum (or some other light weight, high strength metal/composite) - until they go metal I'm going to milk this 12" PB until it doesn't work at all (the MBP's are just too expensive for me
2) $149 AppleTV (or lower) with only 160GB HD option - I actually downloaded 2 movies this past weekend - hooked up my PB to my 42" HDTV and, being completely honest here, it actually looked pretty good to me. Only problem I had was playback since my PB is getting a bit old it would jump from time to time...
3) Drop the Mini below $500 so my siblings and I can pony up and buy my mom a new computer (she's using an old "sunflower" iMac)

Also - didn't Opp. say something VERY similar to this LAST quarter??

With what they have now the two products that could "Shut out the competition" are the iPhone and the AppleTV.

The iPhone just received an update and is not likely to see a price cut this soon after it's introduction. They also are having no problem selling them, if anything they are having problems keeping up with the demand.

AppleTV, still just a Hobby, could go a few ways to gain more sales but needs partnerships do really succeed. IF Apple were to expand their online program offerings from simple PodCasts and YouTube to offer network programming they could gain some traction, but they probably could not shut out the competition since the networks would most likely match any success with similar deals with Microsoft and other companies testing this market. They could add DVR, but they risk loosing content providers they currently have agreements with and they would need a way to seamlessly integrate it with Cable and Satellite, which as I understand it is not that simple. They do have a deal with AT&T for the iPhone, and AT&T is entering the TVIP business with their U-verse systems, could they be partnering with AT&T for set top boxes? I don't think this is likely and they would only gain as much market share as AT&T can steal from traditional cable. I can't see a clear path to unparalleled success with the AppleTV like they have with the iPod and iPhone, too much is up in the air, but there are ways that they could expand on the success they have had so far.

I think the most likely thing we will see soon are updates to the MacBook and MacBook Pro, possibly the iMac and Mini as well.

God... I HOPE NOT!!!! I don't want to have to use a full-blown computer interface... with two hands... just to change songs and volume... etc. The iPod should NEVER EVER go 100% touch screen. That would be in interface disaster.

Are you forgetting about iPods.. The time is just about right for an updated line..

All iPods go touch. No more classic and no more nano: they will become:

iPod touch
iPod nano touch.

All iPods will now use the app store. Brilliant..

Desktops
Apple needs a transitional desktop model and a lower priced model will make room at the high end for those lovely multiple core chips that intel will make available soon.

There's lots of chips in the market right now. Apple has offerings in a very small sector Desktop wise.

Touchscreen iMac refresh: HP introduced theirs. How long will it be before Apple responds. Maybe January.

And on an occams razor feel, couldn't he just be talking about the G3 iPhone?

xMac
xMac
xMac xMac
xMac xMac xMac
xMac xMac xMac xMac xMac
xMac xMac xMac xMac xMac xMac xMac xMac

Not gonna happen. The smaller screen is fine for watching video, but it's way too small for touchscreen, particularly running apps.

Not to mention that for a device that is primarily a media player, regular buttons are way easier than a touchscreen (just try and do that while driving).

OS X and OS X Server are products. Could this transition be away from Apple-branded hardware and to virtualization technology? There is nothing hardware-wise that truly differentiates an Apple system from its competitors. Just look at the Mac Pro. It's practically the same thing as the Dell Precision T7400 and HP x8600. The biggest difference in my opinion is the Dell can run 128GB of memory. Of course, the nice thing about Apple systems is they control the hardware, thus reducing hardware issues/driver incompatibilities.

On the flip-side, maybe Linux(probably)/Vista(unlikely) will be a BTO option on new Macs?

Under the current model, every computer sale = OS sale. There's a significant profit margin built in to that combo, but does it inherently limit market-share? Will the life-long Windows be more willing to try OS X if he can run it along-side Vista on his brand-new HP/Dell/IBM/etc? I'd bet 50%+ of OS X installs on non-Apple hardware will result in a Apple computer purchase next time around, because everyone knows that Apple's attention to detail usually puts the competition to sham.

Just my $0.02.

Well, that's not going to happen. Apple needs to have a product line that covers all the price points, from the cheap shuffles all the way up to the high capacity touches. If they leave a hole in the product line then it leaves a huge hole for the competition to come in and steal market share.

Apple does need to refresh the line to keep up demand and drive holiday/back to school sales. Just making them smaller or giving them more space is not going to do that. The Touch is definitely going to do that but I still think there is room for the Nano in the lineup. Some people still really only want to play music.

Look at the size of the current nano phatty. Now imagine the whole thing being a touch screen.. It's only a tad smaller than the current iPhone/iPod touch.. Remember, the whole thing would be a screen, the click wheel will be gone..

Wondering if this would be a new upgradable desktop for users that need more than a mini, but not quite a Mac Pro.

If I had to choose 1 product, I would go with the earlier post on the Apple TV, probably a DVR. They could sell one, maybe 2 to each home. Might be as good profit as the iPhone with mass appeal. They might even be able to cut deals with cable companies, which would help with distribution.

My 2 cents!

Obviously the shuffles would be excluded from touch.. I'm mainly talking the nano and classic iPods. I'm telling you it's all about getting the app store on as many devices as possible.. Keeping the nano at the same price point but going touch would cut into margins, but the competition simply couldn't match it..

I'm 100% with you and others on this. The App Store will more than make up on margins lost to push the new line. This would be a transition, and would shut down competition. Unlike a new really fast iMac that could make a huge impact on competition, but not shut them down. Plus the Mac line will wait until SL to try and shut anyone down on that front.

What a great sleuth. Glad: the war is over. Sad: he has retired.

The iPhone's 200 patents inside a Macbook Pro would guarantee that.

Feh! Blu-Ray drive is already DOA. It's not something consumers have been clamoring for, just retailers.

Remember one thing you bit the hook!

It WILL be something new - mark my words. I'd tell you what it is, but then I'd have to kill you, or be killed, or at least sued

Skip

I agree. To use a Touch... you need two hands and a pair of eyes. You can use a classic with one hand and, for certain operations... if you wish, no eyes at all! Keep a simple iPod option that is essentially just a media player.

To me... the iPod Touch is not an iPod... it's a palm-top computer that happens to have a media player installed.

Exactly, and that's why an iPod nano becoming an iPod nano touch is a transition.

The iPod Analog! Big chunky switches, sliders and rotary dials for the rest of us!!!!

And a big mistake... if touch and shuffle become the only options available.

AppleTV with DVR makes sense. I also brought it up in the other thread.

The key thing is that the new product damages the earning side by about 200M, without being a revenue driver. That means, it is very likely the revenue is deferred.

How does AppleTV/DVR fit in? There is some parallel to the cell phone market. The cable TV carriers give the set top boxes to the subscribers, with the ability to do video-on-demand already. It is difficult to persuade people to add another box to the family room, with one additional remote.

Now....what if Apple signs a major contract with Comcast and Comcast uses the next-gen AppleTV as the cable box/DVR/DVD player? The business model is almost the same as iPhone. Comcast would give the AppleTV to customer for free with 2-year contract(but of course, it will only be useful with their service). Apple will recognize the revenue over 2 years, and it is a great way to shut off the competitors in the streaming video business.

Assuming AppleTV costs $200 to make, and Apple expects to ship 1M in this Q, that will explain why there is a 200M hit on the earning side, but no apparent benefit on the revenue side.

Apple have invested a lot of time and money into touch technology.. It is the next logical step to make it the de facto standard on it's entire iPod line. OSX and the app store on all their portable devices. It makes sense.

VIdeo is already there, so of course you can see it.

But I hope you're right about the app store. Most speculation I've read on a touch-based nano has been skeptical, but I'd buy one in a second. Note that I'm not saying they're going to make one; just that I *really* want one.


Fine, as long as it's seriously cheap. Otherwise, there's no way HDs go. Not for a long time.

Perhaps the product transition is not hardware but software, such as, free streaming video with commercials in iTunes? Having that working inside AppleTV and FrontRow would put them way ahead of the competition.

...

although I think the transition away from ipod classic makes the most sense.

You know what... sometimes you just want a toaster. There's a reason why toasters are still basically just a box with two slots and a lever. I would never buy an iPod Touch. I would buy an iPhone... yes... but not a Touch. I don't want to have to use a full-blown computer interface just to play music. Apple is all about keeping it simple. The touch... as cool as it is for what it is... requires more of the user than a simple click wheel interface. Both devices are very good at what they do... but the Touch is not a music player. It's a computer.

Get that big jar out and start saving now.

The iPod touch is not a full blown computer interface.

And secondly, yes, the iPod touch is a computer, but so is the current iPod nano. It has a processor, a hard drive and an operating system.

Precisely. So what can drop their overall margins from 35% to 30%?

Assuming many Apple products remain at 35% margin, then loosely speaking, it's equivalent to moving HALF their products to a 25% margin., or 1/4 of their products to 15% margin... etc. But that assumes all the products are worth the same - if it was their cheaper products they'd have to sell HUGE numbers.

So it's significant. AND they're saying it's for the July-Sept quarter... that quarter is already 1/4 over.

Here's some possibilities people have mentioned...
*SSD storage on many products - yes costly & broad scope, but wouldn't lock out competitors much
*cheap Mac/PodTablet - costly, could lock out competitors - but couldn't make & sell enough to affect margin.
*very cheap AppleTV - costs Apple, easy to make, could lock out competitors - but it'd be hard to hide so many made
*touch display everywhere - costs Apple, broad impact, transition is feasible, could lock out competitors - possible

So I vote for touch display everywhere - iMac, all laptops, Cinema displays.

Of course they would not be replacing the mouse with touch screen - it becomes an additional interaction method that some people won't use, and that is impractical for some applications and great for others (especially if Apple has rewritten iLife (and iWork?) to take advantage).

edit: much much shorter.

how about a digital camera? i've seen a rumour some time ago.. would like that a lot, with multitouch etc

Seriously. I love my 2nd gen shuffle because I don't have to pay attention to it at all. Just clip it on and tap the button when I want to skip a song or stop/start. Apple would be making a major error thinking that all iPods need touch-like interfaces. As a matter of fact, they'd benefit from even more radical simplification... more products need to be operated without even thinking about it. Future wearable Apple devices need to be more like jewelry or pets... out of the way and doing their work in the background.

xxxxx

I disagree, the touch devices are as simple to use as a click wheel.. You can start, stop and skip a song directly from the earbuds. The volume control is on the side for instant tactile reponse. Plus, for a nano it would be as easy as adding a "shuffle" icon to the home screen to get music going with no effort. I don't get the comments about how hard it is to navigate.. Yeah if your scrolling and looking for a particular song you have to look at the screen, but you have to do that on a current iPod anyway..

Oppenheimer seemed to hint the new aluminum MB and Montevina MBP and MBA are on the way. It will use DDR3 modules which are still more expensive than DDR2 counter parts (that's one example why Apple needed to lower its profit margin for Q4). Possible transitions include but not limit to HDMI/DisplayPort, Blu-Ray, larger SSD and new ACD. Most important of all new MB and MBP case redesign (this would drive the cost up initially for new molding, another example to lower profit margin). These components are not going to be cheap initially while Apple need to justify the cost to current MB, MBP, MBA price level. Other possible technologies and features could be touch based iPod and thinner Mac Mini. It would be nice to see new Mac Pro, but probably won't happen in Apple's "transition quarter." Nevertheless it's going to be an exciting quarter for Apple product!

The transition will be the Mac Pro going from Harpertown to Gainestown (on Tylersburg chip set) a month or two ahead of anyone else...

...or just a new Mac mini

The war may have been over but the Cold-War encroached as Britain continued to haemorrhage badly (thanks to the earlier insane warmongering of Churchill and the avaricious imperialist aspirations of the USA). Blackmailed by the US into handing all our technological secrets and strategic military bases to this former fair-weather friend, a penniless Britain had to endure many critical social problems through strict rationing and an imagined threat from communism... Plenty of criminal endeavours for Foyle to foil...

I'm sure he'll be back.

I doubt it would be much lower than $500. A 320GB hard drive is now available as low as $130. Much of SSD's alleged benefits really haven't panned out much yet either, I see little that makes up for the low capacity and high cost.

Maybe it's a possibility, but I just don't think it's a good transition to do just yet.

my thought

it's a new iPhone. call it mini, nano etc...whatever but apple is going to have other designs for other needs.

for example a physical keyboard.

you say ha no way... but think about it. there are people out there who love their blackberries because of the keyboards and will never switch.

if apple has an iPhone 3G slider they take the barrier away.

as a proof, if you watch the 3G keynote oneline, halfway through where steve shows off the new calculator, he said something like see how not having plastic keys let's us do this.... or something like that...

if you watch the podcast version of the keynote...his comment was deleted.... yeah man... go check it out

Perhaps they are going to put the chip (at a lower power level) from this company in their iPods?

The suspense is killing me...

there is only one product that is mass market with stinky margins that will have features to beat the competition.. it is a low end phone that will be a smaller screen but with the same basic features as the touch... at 99.99 .. and a give away FOR ZERO DOLLARS WITH A TWO YEAR CONTRACT at ATT. IT WILL BE SO DARN SKINNY THAT IT WILL FIT INTO THE CC SLOT OF A WALLET.. WELL MAYBE NOT THAT THIN .. YET

A SINGLE IPHONE AT TWO PRICE POINTS IN CONSUMER ELECTRONICS AS A BUSINESS - WHERE A WIDE RANGE OF PRICES EXIST IN AN ENORMOUS HUMONGOUS PRODUCT CATEGORY LIKE PHONES - IS RIPE PICKINGS FOR APPLE TO EXPAND THEIR LINE-UP .. This phone will multiply by 500 zillion % the halo effect on their computer sales ... and the consumer electronics phenomenon of selling more-for-less (or more for the same price each year) and while still maintaining a respectable margin for CONSUMER ELECTRONICS of over 25% will ROCK. Well, 30% will do considering that CE competition is not so pretty as apple's products.

tell the kids to hang on.. a new phone is on the way that they will just love.. Mercedes and BMW can do it.. So Apple can too.. Apple consistently finds it easier to start at the top and work down the food chain..